Week 9 Power Rankings
Erik’s record six-game win streak finally came to an end this week at the hands of the most unlikely of opponents—Jess. 🫨
Yes, Jess who started 0-5 and was only the third team owner in league history to do so. Jess who took a major risk in drafting both Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp (both of whom missed the first four games of the season). Jess who lost Austin Ekeler, Tee Higgins and Aaron Rodgers to early-season injuries. And, lest we forget, Jess who was projected by ESPN to finish first in the league immediately after the draft but soon dropped to 12th.
But I’m here to tell you it’s no fluke. Jess’ team is finally healthy and quietly making strides up the standings and the Power Rankings. Since Week 6, Jess is 3-1 and ranks third in TW% (.682) and scoring (124.0 ppg), trailing only Gray and Erik. If not for those early injuries, this team very well could be contending for a top-two seed.
Unfortunately, you can’t erase those first five losses. Which means Jess must do what no team in league history has ever accomplished—rebound from an 0-5 start to make the playoffs. And even more difficult, she must do it facing the toughest remaining schedule in the league. That includes playing four of her final five games against teams in the top half of this week’s Power Rankings. Given her current record, she likely needs to win them all. (Though there is a path to the playoffs if she can manage to get to 7-7 or even 6-8. She would just need more help.)
But in defeating Erik this week, Jess took the most impressive step yet on her unlikely road to redemption.
Where do Jess and the rest of the league rank this week? Let’s get to the Power Rankings…
Gray stretches out his lead on the top spot; Jess moves up three spots to eighth.
With Erik’s loss this week, Gray not only ties him at 7-2 in the official standings but also stretches out his lead for the top spot in this week’s Power Rankings. Behind that duo, I see a big group of team owners all clumped together that includes Brandon, Alex, Samantha, Nick, Greco and yes, even Jess who has moved up three spots this week. Finally, the bottom four includes Josh, Chelsie, Beth Ann and Geoff, though notably Josh has a winning record and is still in prime position for the playoffs.
Time for the news and notes:
Gray won his third weekly prize this season with 162.74 points.
That’s the most weekly prizes for Gray since 2019, the last time he won a championship.
Greased Lightnin’ has scored 128+ points in seven straight games. ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
With just 104.92 points scored, Erik had his second-worst game of the season, ending his six-game winning streak, a personal best.
As Gray noted, this sets up a matchup of our two 7-2 teams in Week 10. Unfortunately, many of Erik’s best players are on bye, including Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown and Isiah Pacheco. Should we give Gray the win already?
Brandon moves back up to third, his highest ranking since Week 5.
With both Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs on bye in Week 9, Brandon’s trade for Rachaad White (who scored a season-high 27.9 points and was RB1 in Week 9) was the difference in a tight, must-win matchup with Greco.
Alex continued his ascent up the rankings and is now fourth thanks in part to a 29-1 differential in scoring at defense and kicker versus Chelsie in Week 9.
Samantha loses a second-straight game and slips two spots to fifth after the Chargers D/ST came up just short of what would have been an improbable comeback victory over Josh.
Samantha’s WR scoring Weeks 1-7: 55.5 ppg (2nd)
Samantha’s WR scoring Weeks 8-9: 23.1 ppg (10th)
Signs of life from Nick who had his best game since Week 6, defeating Beth Ann, with an incredible call to start Tank Dell for the first time in four weeks. Dell rewarded that loyalty with a season-high 29.6 points, good enough for WR1 in Week 9.
With Kirk Cousins sidelined, Greco got just 9.02 points from Bryce Young. If not for Travis Kelce’s worst game of the season (4.4 points), Greco might have come away with the win. Instead she loses her third game in four weeks.
Greco is still in the playoffs if they started today. But she’s now just 5-4 after a 3-0 start.
Jess’ big day could have been even bigger if she had started Tee Higgins who had 19.0 points on the bench. With Dak scoring 24+ points in three-straight games, this team is positively surging.
Josh is lucky to be 5-4. In fact, he’s got the luckiest team so far this season as measured by his W% vs. TW% differential.
This week he picked up his second-straight “lucky win” in row—a win despite finishing in the bottom half of the league in scoring. With one “unlucky loss” on his resume in Week 5, I’d say this team is +1 win in the luck department.
That being said, I still think this is a good team. Unfortunately, the numbers don’t back that up. Since the trade for Saquon Barkley and Keenan Allen in Week 7, Josh’s team has been definitively worse. Team chemistry issues perhaps?
Josh’s team before the trade: .470 TW% (8th), 117.5 ppg (5th)
Josh’s team after the trade: .212 TW% (11th), 92.4 ppg (11th)
Chelsie has been about the same since the trade with Josh (a slightly worse TW% but with more points scored). Unfortunately, she hasn’t had Josh’s luck and is now 3-6.
Only 9% of 3-6 teams have rebounded to make the playoffs. That includes only Brandon (2012) and Nick (2016) and technically neither did make the playoffs. But they would have if a six-team playoff had existed. So if Chelsie (or Jess or Geoff) can do it, they’d be the first.
It would not have made a difference in the outcome of her game against Nick, but Beth Ann’s decision to trade away Rachaad White (27.9 points) for George Pickens and Gabe Davis (who combined for 1.9 points) certainly did not look great after one week.
You know I’m biased and I’m going to defend this one, but…it’s hard to blame a team that is last in WR scoring for trading for more depth at the position, especially given the Justin Jefferson injury and her relative strength at RB (currently second). Let’s see how this one plays out in future weeks.
Unfortunately, the loss drops Beth Ann to 2-7.
No 2-7 team has ever rebounded to make the playoffs, though it’s still possible.
Finally, tough loss for Geoff this week who could ill afford one. Despite finishing in the top half of the league in scoring, Geoff was matched up with weekly prize-winner, Gray. That’s his first “unlucky loss” of the season, though he does have one “lucky win” to balance things out.
Also notable, C.J. Stroud’s week-high 41.8 points for Geoff were in vain. That’s the fourth time this season the highest-scoring player did not carry his team owner to victory, joining Raheem Mostert (Gray in Week 3), Christian McCaffrey (Brandon in Week 4) and Ja’Marr Chase (Nick in Week 5).
After starting a promising 3-1, Geoff is now 3-6. Oof! 😩
Let’s take a peek at the Playoff Picture. 👀
Greco and Josh are in today. But the computer prefers Brandon and Samantha long term.
I spy two veritable locks in Gray and Erik. Whoever wins that game next week is likely a lock for the playoffs (based on all 10,000 simulations) with the other team owner needing just one more win over the final four weeks to clinch, themselves.
Then there are six more team owners battling for four spots. They are Alex, Nick, Brandon, Samantha, Greco and Josh. If the playoffs started today, Greco and Josh would be in given their records. But both are sub-.500 teams in TW% in the bottom half of the Power Rankings. As a result, the computer favors Brandon and Samantha to close the gap.
Finally, the long shots—Chelsie, Jess, Geoff and Beth Ann. All are in the bottom half of the rankings likely needing to go 5-0 or at least 4-1 down the stretch and get help. Beth Ann probably needs to win out and get help. To be clear, none are eliminated. But that’s why their odds are under 10%. Again, I think Jess has the best shot of this group given the strength of her team in recent weeks. But the schedule won’t be kind.
The playoffs are near. Every win counts. Good luck to everyone in Week 10!
