Week 8 Power Rankings
It’s spooky season and there’s a new terror stalking the Worst League—Erik. 🔪
After slaying last week’s second-ranked team in the Power Rankings by over 50 points, Erik is now 7-1. It’s not only Erik’s best record at this point of the season, it’s tied for the best Week 8 record ever. Of the eight previous 7-1 teams in league history, all eight made the playoffs, seven finished in the money, five played in the title game and two took home the championship trophy. Those are some stone cold killers.
This week, Erik won his second weekly prize. And though Gray’s Greased Lightnin’ team remains on top of this week’s Power Rankings (barely), Erik has spent more weeks at #1 than any other this season, including Gray.
So what makes Erik’s team so terrifying? It’s the receivers. Most notably, it’s the one-two punch of Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown, who currently rank as not only the WR1 and WR2, but the first- and fourth-highest scoring players in all of fantasy, including QBs. Throw in rookie Zay Flowers and you have the most prolific group of receivers since the Power Glove—Jess’ high-flying trio from 2020 that also included Tyreek Hill plus Davante Adams and some rookie named Justin Jefferson. That team averaged 58.3 ppg at WR. Erik is currently averaging 57.9 ppg. 😱
Now with Joe Burrow rounding into midseason form (a season-high 27.62 points in Week 8), it almost doesn’t matter that James Conner and Aaron Jones (Erik’s highest-drafted RBs) have struggled with injuries, with only two weeks in which they were both active. Now imagine if they get healthy. That’s a scary thought, indeed.
A terrifying ginger running amok, making child’s play of the league? Those haunting images aren’t supposed to linger past October. But today is November 1. And it looks like this ginger is here to stay.
Alright, let’s get to the Power Rankings…
Gray is #1 for a third-straight week. But Erik is nipping at his heels. ✂️
No surprise that Gray and Erik, the two teams leading the standings so far this season, are also tops of the Power Rankings with Gray narrowly in front. As for the rest of the league, some minor movement up and down the rankings, but teams mostly stayed put in Week 8.
Let’s get to the news and notes:
Gray held off Jahmyr Gibbs and the rest of Brandon’s Jahmyry Duty team to win his fifth straight game. He’s now finished with a top-two score in four out of eight weeks this season. ⚡️
If you play Gray, you better bring it. He has scored no less than 128 points since Week 2. Next up? Last-place team owner, Geoff. Gulp. 🙈
At 7-1, Erik probably needs just one more win to make the playoffs. And just two more to break his regular season wins record. Keep it up!
While Gray and Erik continued to surge, Samantha had her first bad game since Week 2, scoring “just” 112.96 points. But I’d bet on Davante Adams (2.1 points) and Puka Nacua (7.3 points) bouncing back.
SORE LOSER ALERT! 😭 Brandon lost to Gray despite a season-high 145.62 points—the most points in a loss this season and the fifth-most points in a loss in a league history. It’s also the most points in a loss since…Brandon lost to Josh last year despite 149.88 points scored.
This is Brandon’s third week this season with a loss despite a top-three score. That marks three “unlucky losses” this season. No one else has more than one. (Editor’s note: Get over it, dude. No one cares.)
Besides Gray and Erik, no one’s been better over the last three weeks than…Alex! With two straight wins, Alex has quietly pushed himself up the standings and would be the three seed in the playoffs if they started today.
For a team that spent its first two picks on RBs and didn’t select a receiver until the fifth round, Alex’s strength is surprisingly at WR. Over the last three weeks, only Erik is getting more WR scoring per game than Alex.
True to form, Greco has received a league-high 99.6% of her scoring this season from players she drafted. Free agents have accounted for just 3.4 points (Jamaal Williams and the Rams D/ST in Week 7). But with the season-ending injury to Kirk Cousins, I’m betting that number will be on the rise.
Nick lost a close one to Josh this week by just 1.1 point, the third-smallest margin of defeat this season. Ironically, it was the decision to pick up the Eagles two weeks ago and start them this week against Josh (-3 points) that cost Nick the victory.
Since losing both Justin Fields and Kyren Williams to injury in Week 6, Nick has struggled. Nick’s scoring average before their injuries: 118.9 ppg. Nick’s scoring average since their injuries: 98.4 ppg. He’s also 0-2 in that time.
Beth Ann lost her third-straight game this week, scoring the fewest points in the league for the first time since Week 10 of 2022. In fact, it’s just the third time in Beth Ann’s career she’s finished last in scoring in a given week.
Chelsie broke her four-game losing streak with a win over Greco. This came despite just 5.64 points from a flu-ridden Patrick Mahomes. But Chelsie’s not worried about it, and I’m not either. He’ll bounce back. And if CeeDee Lamb (41.0 points) and Javonte Williams (18.8 points) can keep this up, I like her chances even better.
Josh is 4-4 but falls to 10th in this week’s Power Rankings. Since making the trade for Keenan Allen and Saquon Barkley, his true record is just 3-19.
Jess got another win! Her 127.56 points this week were the most she’s scored since Week 2. Can she keep it going? Unfortunately, her next three games are against…Erik, Samantha and Gray—the top three teams in the Power Rankings.
Signs of life from Geoff despite the loss with his most points scored (113.0) since winning the weekly prize in Week 3. Can he do the impossible and take down Greased Lightnin’ in Week 9???
Finally, since we’re officially in the second half of the season, it’s high time we took a peek at the Playoff Picture. Remember, we use TW% to simulate the remaining season 10,000 times, then look at the results to come up with these numbers. For a detailed look at how we do this, check out this post from 2018.
If the playoffs were to start today Nick would be in. But the computer slightly prefers Brandon.
With six games to go in the regular season, it’s no surprise that the computer likes Erik and Gray to claim the top two seeds. They’re the best teams with the most wins.
After that both Alex and Greco (the 5-3 team owners) along with Samantha (the best of the 4-4 team owners) have between a 79-91% chance of making the playoffs. All three are expected to finish with around eight wins, which should be good enough to make it in.
But instead of Nick (who would be the six seed if the playoffs started today), the computer narrowly likes Brandon to rebound from a 3-5 start to make the playoffs. Close behind are Josh and Chelsie with between an 8-21% chance of making the playoffs.
Finally, the long shots—Beth Ann, Geoff and Jess. Geoff is just one game under .500. But he’s last in the Power Rankings. And Beth Ann and Jess must rebound from 2-6 starts. Historically, only 10% of 2-6 teams have gone on to make the playoffs. But notably no 2-7 team has ever done it. Better to win this week than to have to make history.
Of course, nothing is set in stone. Last year at this time, four of the six teams projected to make the playoffs in the Week 8 Playoff Picture went on to do so. But two didn’t, including Gray who had a >99% chance at this time last year. Meanwhile, both Josh (22% chance at this time last year) and Erik (16%) snuck in. Which means there’s still plenty of fake football left to play.
That’s it for Week 8. Good luck to all in November and beyond.
