Week 10 Power Rankings
Someone send a screenshot of Gray’s message in the group text to @OldTakesExposed!
As Gray noted, this was the matchup we’ve been waiting for all season. The league’s two best teams in wins, points and TW% were scheduled to face off in Week 10. Gray vs. Erik—the favorites for the top two seeds who have collectively spent all but two weeks atop the Power Rankings. A championship preview perhaps?
Unfortunately, Erik’s team was not at full strength. Most notably, his two studs, Tyreek Hill (WR1) and A.J. Brown (WR3) were both on bye, not to mention Isiah Pacheco (RB19). So whether they were in Cancún or Buenos Aires, they would not be of help against Gray’s Greased Lightnin’ team Sunday.
Predictably, Erik’s team struggled. Besides Joe Burrow who was fine (QB8 in Week 10), no player in Erik’s starting lineup scored more than 12.3 points. Most failed to hit double figures, including James Conner who made his return to Erik’s lineup for the first time since Week 5. So, easy win for Gray, right? I believe I asked last week, “Should we give Gray the win already?”
As it turns out, not so fast. In fairness, Gray’s team was also down a key starter in Raheem Mostert (RB2), forcing the rare two-TE lineup (more on that below). And his starters struggled too, especially Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs who combined for just 20.78 points on Monday night. With just 103.58 points scored, the third-lowest total of the week and Gray’s second-worst score this season, the door was open for Erik.
Ultimately, he needed at least 19 points from someone (anyone!) to take home the win. Knowing there was no one like that on his roster, Erik went to the pool of available free agents on Sunday. But not until the first round of games had already kicked off (oops!) which cut the available pool of players by more than half.
Here’s the full list of flex-eligible players who were available at 1:05 PM ET and would go on to score at least 19 points—the amount needed to give Erik the win over Gray:
Brandin Cooks (32.3 points)
That’s it. That’s the entire list. Just Brandin Cooks. If we include the guys who played in the early games, you could throw in Noah Brown (24.2 points) and Jayden Reed (19.4 points). But they technically weren’t available at the time Erik was picking up a player. Talk about throwing a dart! Call it fate, call it luck, call it unabashed homer-ism, but Erik had to pick the one player who would give him the win…and he NAILED it. 🤯
Yes, C.J. Stroud (41.8 points in Week 9 for Geoff) and D’Onta Foreman (33.0 points in Week 7 for Samantha) were players acquired through free agency who technically scored more for their team owners this season, but given the matchup, the timing and the one-in-a-million shot, I have to say this was the pickup of the year. 🎉
So, hats off to Erik who as it turns out is the one sipping a victory marg in Week 10 while Gray was left lamenting, “no más.”
Alright, let’s get to the Power Rankings…
Erik may have won the battle, but Gray still holds on to the #1 spot for the fifth-straight week.
Despite the loss and his worst performance since Week 1, Gray maintained his hold on the #1 spot in the Power Rankings. This is now his fifth-straight week at the top, and he officially passes Erik for most weeks atop the Power Rankings this season, now leading Erik five weeks to four.
How about some news and notes?
Since TEs became flex-eligible in 2021, Gray became just the third team owner to actually start a lineup with two TEs. Starting George Kittle (20.6 points) and Taysom Hill (4.3 points) this week, Gray joins Whitney and Jess in the two-TE club.
Previously, Whitney started Kittle and Dallas Goedert from Weeks 10-12 in 2021. And Jess started both Gerald Everett and Dalton Schultz in Weeks 5 and 14 in 2022.
Is it a good strategy? With Gray’s loss, teams who start two TEs are now 1-5 with the only win coming from Whitney in Week 11 of 2021—the only time that both TEs who were started each hit double figures.
With four games left to go, Erik has already tied his most regular season wins in a season with eight (from 2012 and 2022). One more would give him a personal record.
If we include the playoffs, Erik’s most wins ever in a season are nine from 2012 when he won the consolation game.
Speaking of TEs, Brandon’s got his first game of double-figure scoring from a TE. Thank you, Trey McBride!
Brandon’s points from TEs Weeks 1-9: 35.9 points
Brandon’s points from TEs Week 10: 21.1 points
Talk about a roller-coaster season. Samantha started 0-3. Then went 4-0. Now she’s 0-3 in her last three games. 🎢
That being said, she moves up a spot in the rankings after a solid showing with 125.72 points scored despite a couple key starters (Jalen Hurts and Puka Nacua) on bye. Just bad luck in playing Jess this week. That’s what we call a moral victory. 😉
This is now Samantha’s second bad beat this season. In total, there have been 12 so-called “unlucky losses” this year. She and Brandon are the only team owners with more than one.
Alex’s three-game win streak came to an end as Tony Pollard’s inability to find the end zone is giving Alex a case of the Mondays. Is Jaylen Warren the new RB1 on this team?
Nick’s record pre-injuries to Justin Fields and Kyren Williams: 4-2.
Nick’s record post-injuries to Justin Fields and Kyren Williams: 1-3.
Fields is expected to be back in Week 11. Williams is eligible to return in Week 12.
Jess! Jess! Jess! That’s back-to-back weeks with runner-up finishes for the weekly prize, and Jess has now won three in a row and four of her last five. She’s now 4-6 after an 0-5 start. 💪
Over the last five weeks, Jess is tied for first in wins (4), second in TW% (.727), second in points (127.6 ppg) and first in QB and TE scoring. 🚀
After defeating Erik and Samantha, Jess faces her toughest test yet in Week 11—Gray.
Josh won his first weekly prize since Week 13 of 2021 with a season-high 147.78 points in Week 10. If you’re curious, the longest weekly prize drought currently belongs to Jess who hasn’t won one since 2020.
Powering Josh to that victory was Keenan Allen who had his first monster game since he was acquired via trade. With 40.5 points scored in Week 10, Allen is the first player this year to lead the week in scoring twice, having previously done it in Week 2.
After starting 5-2, Greco has lost three games in a row and ranks 11th in TW% (.303) and scoring (106.6 ppg) in that time.
It’s no coincidence that her downturn has also coincided with injuries to Kirk Cousins, David Montgomery and Deebo Samuel. With Montgomery and Samuel returning to her lineup in Week 10 with double-digit scores and Kelce back from bye next week, there’s still time to salvage her season despite dropping to ninth in this week’s Power Rankings. Keep the faith!
CeeDee Lamb is single-handedly keeping Chelsie afloat. Over the last three weeks, Lamb is averaging 36.2 ppg, which is over 30% of Chelsie’s scoring in that time. As a result, she’s now won two of her last three games.
Next week, she faces Josh in a revenge match for Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley and Keenan Allen who were traded in Week 7.
Geoff finally put an end to his five-game losing streak, but—not to rain on his parade—it was a “lucky win” with just 107.44 points scored. That’s his second lucky win this season, which ties Josh and Nick, also with two.
Finally, Beth Ann supplants Geoff in last place. She has now lost five straight games.
Even worse, she has three straight weeks with the lowest score in the league, matching the ignominious feat achieved by Geoff in Weeks 5-7, and has not topped 100 points in that time. Though I have heard rumblings Justin Jefferson could return in Week 11. 🤞
Time to look at the Playoff Picture.
Since last week, Josh is up (+36%), Greco is down (-31%) and Jess is making waves (up to 13% from <1% two weeks ago).
Last week, we said the winner of the game between Erik and Gray would be a lock for the playoffs. Well, Erik won. So is he in? Technically, no. He’s three games up on the final playoff spot with four games to go. So he could miss. But in 10,000 simulations, he never missed once. Frankly, I can’t imagine an eight-win team with his edge in points missing the playoffs. I would bet he’s a lock real soon. Ditto for Gray who made the playoffs in all but eight simulations. Even if he loses out, he makes the playoffs 94% of the time.
Then things get interesting. We have NINE teams that are either 6-4, 5-5 or 4-6. That’s most of the league all within two games of each other with four games to go. It’s truly anyone’s game. The simulations are definitely going to favor the higher-rated teams in the Power Rankings. That’s why Alex is at 93% and Brandon (87%) is favored over Josh (76%) despite being down a game. That being said, Josh saw the biggest bump in odds this week and would be the four seed if the playoffs started today with Brandon fifth and Nick as the last team in.
But don’t count out Samantha, Greco and yes, even Jess who has officially graduated from long shot territory:
After three tough games in a row, Samantha has a bit of an easier schedule down the stretch with three of her remaining four games against teams in the bottom half of the Power Rankings. Win those three and she’s got seven wins plus a sizable points lead over all current rivals for a playoff spot.
Tied with Nick in the standings, Greco is currently just 14 points back of a playoff spot. She had the biggest drop in playoff chances this week, but she’s right there.
And Jess is walking a can’t-lose tightrope but doing it successfully. The gauntlet reaches its apex this week with a matchup against Gray. I still think she needs to win out but she’s halfway there after her 0-5 start.
Finally, the long shots—Chelsie, Geoff and Beth Ann. Chelsie and Geoff got big wins this week. Like all 4-6 teams, they can still technically lose a game. But I wouldn’t recommend it given their current points deficit. Reminder, 4-6 teams only make the playoffs 19% of the time. As for Beth Ann, she has to win out to get to 6-8 and then score enough points to win a potential tiebreaker. And even then, she only makes the playoffs 18% of the time. In short, pray! 🙏
More details to come next week with the return of the Wall of Destiny. On to Week 11!
