Week 11 Power Rankings — The Worst League

With three games to go, all but two team owners are either currently projected to make the playoffs or within one game of the final playoff spot. Given that, now is the perfect time to bring back…the Wall of Destiny!

For those that don’t remember, the Wall of Destiny is a chart that tells you what your playoff chances are based on how many games you win the rest of the season. Rather than reducing your playoff odds to a single number, it gives you a better idea of how many games you need to win and whether or not you control your own destiny.

Teams with a 100% in the leftmost column are locks for the playoffs. So far, that’s nobody, though Chelsie is really close given her edge in points. Even if she doesn’t win another game, she’s almost assuredly in. Meanwhile, teams with a 100% in the rightmost column control their own destiny. If they win out, they’re in, no matter what else happens. Right now that includes the top eight teams. Finally, 0% indicates the point at which a team would be eliminated. For example, assuming her current standing in the points tiebreaker stays the same, Jess has to go 3-0 to have a chance to make the playoffs. If she loses one more game, she’s out.

Some other quick observations:

Chelsie, Gray and Samantha only need to win one more game to clinch.
Nick would clinch with two more wins but is still likely to make the playoffs by finishing 1-2 given his edge in points.
Erik, Geoff, Josh and Brandon are in if they win out but are in pretty good shape if they’re able to go 2-1. It gets dicier at 1-2.
After that, Greco and Beth Ann need to win out plus get a little bit of help. They’re not eliminated with a loss, but their chances go way down, especially Beth Ann.
Jess is a long shot who is not mathematically eliminated but needs to win out and get lots of help, which means needing the teams in front of her to lose.
And finally, Alex is eliminated. 😢 Even if he wins out, the best he could do is get to five wins and there are already seven teams with at least six wins.

Scoreboard

Erik upsets Samantha. Geoff wins a squeaker over Josh. And Brandon wins the weekly prize.

As we have in recent weeks, let’s start with the updated standings. Teams that are currently in the playoffs are listed in bold.

8-3: Chelsie
7-4: Gray, Samantha
6-5: Nick, Erik, Geoff, Josh
5-6: Brandon, Greco, Beth Ann
3-8: Jess
2-9: Alex

After winning eight of her first nine games, Chelsie has now lost two straight, dropping a third to Brandon this week. Nevertheless, she’s still top of the heap as the only team owner with eight wins.

Meanwhile, Samantha put up 131.7 points in Week 11, but it was not enough as Erik upset Samantha, dropping her to 7-4. That gave Gray the opening he needed (thanks to six TDs from Jamaal Williams and Travis Kelce) to slip back into second place with a win over Jess. Both team owners are now 7-4, but Gray has a sizable 135.52-point lead over Samantha for the first-round bye tiebreaker.

Next up is a jumble of contenders—Nick, Erik, Geoff and Josh. Geoff won a nail-biter over Josh—just the fourth win of less than one point in league history. Plus, an unexpected win for Erik (over Samantha) and an unexpected loss for Nick (to Beth Ann) have given all four identical 6-5 records. Currently, Josh is the odd man out, trailing the next-closest team owner (Geoff) by 16.36 points.

Wins for Brandon, Greco and Beth Ann this week continue to keep them one game back of the final playoff spot. Beth Ann’s upset of Nick was particularly impressive.

And finally, there’s a gap between the top 10 team owners and the bottom two as both Jess and Alex lost in Week 11, dropping their records to 3-8 and 2-9, respectively. While Jess still has a faint prayer for the playoffs, Alex has officially been eliminated.

Power Rankings

With his second weekly prize, Brandon moves back into second place for the first time since Week 6.

1. Gray
7-4, .769 TW%, 128.5 ppg

No Cooper Kupp. No Tyreek Hill. No problem. It turns out the rumors of Gray’s demise were greatly exaggerated. Playing without two of his to top-three players, Gray finished third in scoring in Week 11 with 137.94 points scored—the most he’s scored in a game since Week 5. That was largely thanks to Travis Kelce, Jamaal Williams (acquired in a trade for Brandon Aiyuk) and Daniel Jones (a waiver wire addition) who combined for over 60% of Gray’s total, nearly outscoring Jess all by themselves. Now at 7-4, Gray is back in the driver’s seat for a first-round bye. The computer gives him a 99% chance to make the playoffs with a 78% chance of a top-two seed. According to the Wall of Destiny, he needs just one more win to clinch. It’s not an easy road with games against Geoff, Samantha and Brandon, but it’s doable given the stature of this team. (For that first-round bye, next week’s matchup with Samantha looms large.) More importantly, it appears Gray remains a force to be reckoned with (Cooper Kupp injury be damned) in this year’s playoffs.

2. Brandon (▲1)
5-6, .653 TW%, 125.2 ppg

With his second weekly prize of the season, Brandon is back in second place for the first time since Week 6. Not only that, but with a win over Chelsie, Brandon has now won four straight games, the longest active streak in the league. Playing without regular starters Tua Tagovailoa and Christian Kirk (both on bye), Brandon scored 146.68 points in Week 11 and is now averaging 138.0 ppg over his recent four-game winning streak. One game back of the final playoff spot, Brandon still controls his own destiny with three games to go thanks largely to his substantial points lead over most of the other 6-5 and 5-6 teams. With the exception of Nick, Brandon leads each of those other team owners by at least 140 points. If he can get to seven wins, he has an 81% chance that the tiebreaker would push him over the top. With games remaining against Erik, Josh and Gray (the third-toughest slate), it won’t be easy. But for the first time since Week 5, Brandon is actually projected to make the playoffs in our latest Playoff Picture with a 55% chance. Considering that number was 8% as recently as Week 7, I’ll take it.

Brandon and Erik join the projected playoff teams with three games to go, replacing Geoff and Josh.

Lastly, Brandon’s win this week was career win number 100 (88 regular season wins + 12 playoff wins) for him. 💯 He joins Gray (currently 105) as the only two team owners with 100 career wins. Next in line to hit that milestone are Jess and Greco who are neck-and-neck with 85 and 84 career wins, respectively.

3. Chelsie (▲1)
8-3, .612 TW%, 125.0 ppg

No Jaylen Waddle (on bye). And just 15.2 points from A.J. Brown and Diontae Johnson. But you actually have to be a little encouraged from Chelsie’s Week 11 performance, despite her second straight loss. That’s because Najee Harris had by far his best game of the season (27.6 points) along with a strong day from new trade acquisition Devin Singletary (17.7 points). Their combined 45.3 points were the most from the RB position for Chelsie this season. With Waddle returning from bye this week, that RB duo could pair nicely with what still ranks as the league’s highest-scoring WR group (Brown, Waddle and DeAndre Hopkins). Throw in Patrick Mahomes and you’ve got a recipe for a championship contender. At 8-3 with the third-most points scored, Chelsie hasn’t yet locked up a playoff spot, but she’s close even if she never wins another game. The Playoff Picture also gives her a 95% chance of securing a first-round bye. With a relatively light schedule down the stretch, including games against Alex and Greco, Chelsie is probably (knock on wood) looking at the one seed in her debut season. Not too shabby.

4. Nick (▼2)
6-5, .603 TW%, 123.0 ppg

A bad week for Nick who dropped a winnable game against Beth Ann and is now 6-5. With Travis Etienne on bye and despite 22.0 points from kicker Brett Maher, Nick scored just 105.1 points, just his third week this season finishing in the bottom half of the league in scoring. As a result, he drops two spots in the Power Rankings, probably loses his chance at a first-round bye and finds himself in a four-way tie with Erik, Geoff and Josh for the final three playoff spots. But the good news? He leads all three of those guys in points by a healthy margin of at least 140 points. With two of his three games left against Erik and Josh, Nick will have plenty of chances to not only pick up the two wins he needs to clinch, but to also knock his competition down a peg. Even if he just wins one more game, the Wall of Destiny gives him a 67% chance to make the playoffs. And overall, the computer still considers him a heavy favorite to make the playoffs with an 84% chance. Last week’s injuries to Kyle Pitts and Rondale Moore may complicate things, but the emergence of Rachaad White could also be a boon for one of the league’s most potent rushing attacks.

5. Samantha
7-4, .587 TW%, 116.1 ppg

Like Nick, Samantha also saw her winning streak come to an end in Week 11, losing a high-scoring shootout to Erik. Her 131.7 points scored were the second-most in a loss this season. That’s especially sour grapes considering the injury to Kadarius Toney (0.0 points) plus 44.0 combined points for Erik’s kicker and defense. That being said, Samantha is still 7-4 with three games to go. According to the Wall of Destiny, she needs just one more win to clinch her spot in the playoffs. With games remaining against Josh, Gray and Geoff, that eighth win won’t come easy. But even if she never wins another game, she still has a 45% chance to make it in. Overall, the Playoff Picture says she has a 95% chance to make the playoffs with a not insubstantial 20% chance to steal a first-round bye from Gray. As we noted in Gray’s writeup, their Week 13 matchup will prove pivotal. With Ezekiel Elliott back and scoring TDs, Samantha has a nice roster that can certainly make a push in the postseason.

6. Greco
5-6, .479 TW%, 112.4 ppg

A potentially season-saving win for Greco over Alex in Week 11. With just 110.16 points scored, her highest score since Week 7, Greco got just enough points to scrape by Alex and put an end to her three-game losing streak. Last week we predicted the Khalil Herbert injury might mean more work for David Montgomery. And that certainly proved true as Montgomery (21.1 points) actually outscored Greco’s outgoing RB, Josh Jacobs, by 2.1 points. As a result, Greco actually pulled ahead of Nick for the most points scored from RBs in the league this season. Lamar Jackson’s play continues to puzzle (just 15.46 points in Week 11), but he certainly raises the ceiling for this team. With Ja’Marr Chase on the verge of returning, if not this week then perhaps the next, Greco should not be counted out just yet. While she’s not completely in control of her own destiny thanks to a deficit in points, the Wall of Destiny notes that she’d have a 99.5% chance of making the playoffs if she can beat Jess, Beth Ann and Chelsie in consecutive weeks. Those first two rank 10th and 11th in this week’s Power Rankings. If Greco can beat them and then get Chase back, it sets up for a very interesting finale against Chelsie. Stay tuned.

7. Erik (▲2)
6-5, .471 TW%, 110.1 ppg

Just a massive win for Erik in Week 11, upsetting Samantha while scoring a season-high 142.4 points. The win pushes Erik to 6-5 and, if the playoffs started today, Erik would be in. Not only that, but his odds of making the playoffs saw the week’s biggest jump from 22% last week to 53% this week, making him the final projected playoff team. In fact, no team has seen wilder swings in playoff chances over the last three weeks than Erik who has sandwiched two huge scoring days against top-flight competition, Gray and Samantha, around one disappointing dud against rival Geoff. And certainly, the rollercoaster ride will continue as Erik finishes his season with two more games against team owners (Brandon and Nick) in the playoff hunt. According to the Wall of Destiny, Erik not only controls his own destiny, but would be in pretty good shape (99.2%) if he can win two of his final three games. That being said, these numbers are contingent on him maintaining his points lead over Geoff and Josh, which is a razor-thin margin. Currently, he leads Josh by 16.86 points and Geoff by just 0.50 points. I expect this one will come down to the wire.

8. Geoff (▼1)
6-5, .446 TW%, 110.1 ppg

Someone up there really likes Geoff. With just 103.44 points scored, Geoff finished with the third-fewest points in Week 11...but got the win anyway. Despite the nearly disastrous decision to bench Amari Cooper (31.3 points), Geoff squeaked by Josh, winning by just 0.52 points—just the fourth game in league history (all this season) decided by less than a point. And in fact, two of those sub-one-point wins belong to Geoff who is now 6-5 but could just as easily be 4-7 if not for a measly 1.10 points. But in fantasy, a win’s a win, and Geoff—if the playoffs started today—would be in thanks to his slim points lead over Josh. According to the Wall of Destiny, Geoff needs to win out to guarantee himself a playoff spot, but still has great odds (94.6%) even if he finishes 2-1. He probably needs to beat Jess in Week 13 and then split his matchups with Gray and Samantha. The computer gives him a 40% chance. Do that and Geoff could be looking at back-to-back playoff bids for the first time in his career.

9. Josh (▼1)
6-5, .430 TW%, 108.6 ppg

Given the narrow loss, you have to wonder if last week’s flurry of trades cost Josh a Week 11 win. Well, did it? The answer is...no. Whew. 😅 In fact, Josh's trades improved his Week 11 score by about five to seven points depending on whether he would have started Kyren Williams or Kareem Hunt at RB2. So at least there’s no second-guessing. But despite that, Josh had to be disappointed with such a close loss to another team owner competing for a playoff spot. Now at 6-5 and trailing nearly every other contender in points, Josh is suddenly on the outside looking in. Case in point, his playoff chances dropped from 63% last week to just 24% this week. That’s a 39% drop, the second-largest one-week drop this season. The good news? Thanks to matchups against Brandon and Nick, Josh still controls his own destiny and even has a 92.6% chance of making the playoffs if he finishes 2-1. To do that, of course, he was to win two of the next three games against the league’s toughest remaining schedule, which includes Brandon and Nick, plus Samantha—all top-five in the Power Rankings. The injury to Justin Fields (and maybe Josh Jacobs???) right after Josh traded for him is...ill-timed. But this team just might have the talent to go the distance.

10. Beth Ann
5-6, .388 TW%, 104.5 ppg

The league’s reigning champ pulled a rabbit out of a hat this week, upsetting Nick with 114.6 points scored—her third-best game of the season. Despite 2.2 points from Kirk Cousins, Beth Ann got the win thanks to 30+ points from Tony Pollard and Joshua Palmer, both backups turned fantasy studs. With the win, Beth Ann’s path to defending her title in the playoffs suddenly becomes more feasible. According to the Wall of Destiny, she no longer controls her own destiny due to the fact that she trails every team owner above her in the Power Rankings in total points scored. But...she’s not that far behind Erik, Geoff and Josh. And the schedule is cushy with matchups against Alex, Greco and Jess. Those are winnable games. With injuries to Kyler Murray, Leonard Fournette and whatever is afflicting D’Andre Swift, the roster has been healthier. But it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Beth Ann wins out and sneaks into the playoffs as a low-scoring 8-5 team. In fact, the computer gives her a 14% chance.

11. Alex
2-9, .306 TW%, 98.5 ppg

RIP to Alex’s season. 🪦💀

With a loss in Week 11 to Greco, Alex has officially been eliminated from playoff contention. Ironically, it was a disappointing day for trade acquisition Josh Allen (a season-low 12.58 points) or perhaps the Broncos D/ST (-2 points) that did him in. For Alex, it’s been a year to forget. Controversially drafting Christian McCaffrey first overall ahead of Jonathan Taylor, Alex was ultimately vindicated as McCaffrey proved to be the far superior back. But it was the rest of the draft that went belly-up. Third-round pick Keenan Allen missed most of the season with a lingering hamstring injury. George Kittle’s early-season injury and slow emergence helped dig an early hole. And it didn’t help that Rashaad Penny suffered a season-ending injury in Week 5. But perhaps it was all those Broncos including Russell Wilson, Courtland Sutton and Melvin Gordon who simply disappointed that get the biggest piece of blame pie. Starting the season 1-5, Alex tried to salvage things with a Herculean trade for Aaron Jones (+5.1 ppg since the trade 👏) and Josh Allen (-10.1 ppg 😭), but it just wasn’t enough to make a difference. As a result, Alex is currently suffering through the worst season of his career. With a TW% of .306, that’s over .100 points below his previous low (.413 TW% in 2016). And with three games to go, he has a chance to break his own record for losses in a season, which is when he went 2-10-1 in 2014.

One year after staging one of the greatest comebacks in league history, rebounding from a 2-5 start to ultimately finish 8-6 and make it all the way to the championship game, Alex was not able to replicate that magic this season. Now, the consolation ladder, a likely bottom-two seed and potentially the Poop Bowl awaits. Unless he dramatically turns things around over the next three weeks, this will go down as the commissioner’s worst year ever—a reminder that the #1 overall pick doesn’t always work out. Still at third in career true wins, I’d chalk this one up to being “one of those years.” No doubt Alex will be back, better and more ornery than ever in 2023.

12. Jess
3-8, .256 TW%, 97.4 ppg

Make that five losses in a row for Jess who has plummeted down these rankings and is now in serious jeopardy of having the worst season of her career too. Since Week 7—the week of the Breece Hall injury—Jess is 0-5 with a microscopic TW% of .091, averaging just 90.7 ppg. This week was actually her best effort since Week 6 and still she scored just 101.48 points. So why are we not eulogizing Jess’ season yet? With three wins with three games to go, Jess could still technically get to 6-8 with wins over Greco, Geoff and Beth Ann. Currently, that’s the minimum number of wins required to nab a spot in the playoffs. If she wins out and piles on the points (she’s currently last in points and trails the Erik/Geoff/Josh crowd by about 120-140 points), there’s a path. If we re-run the numbers assuming she can make up the points, she makes the playoffs in 13 out of 10,000 simulations or 0.13% of the time. So it’s possible. And a comeback at this late stage would be epic. Don’t give up hope yet, Jess!

Looking Ahead to Week 12

The week’s matchups include:

Chelsie (8-3) vs. Nick (6-5)
Gray (7-4) vs. Geoff (6-5)
Samantha (7-4) vs. Josh (6-5)
Erik (6-5) vs. Brandon (5-6)
Greco (5-6) vs. Jess (3-8)
Beth Ann (5-6) vs. Alex (2-9)

With just three games to go, every game matters. Greco and Jess are both likely facing elimination. There’s a path for Greco even in a loss, but for all intents and purposes, loser goes home. Same for Beth Ann who likely needs a win against Alex. Meanwhile, the rest of the league continues to jockey for position. Can Chelsie get back on the winning track? Can Samantha keep pace with Gray for a first-round bye? And which of the 6-5 teams can get to seven wins first?

Good luck to everyone in Week 12!