Week 10 Power Rankings
Fortunes change quickly in fantasy. Just ask Gray.
Gray has been on autopilot all season long, not that he hasn’t been active. The Worst League career wins leader (104 and counting…) easily leads all team owners this season in total moves (trades + acquisitions) with 44. The next-closest is Brandon with 32.
Perhaps it’s all that tinkering, plus a unique draft strategy, that has catapulted him to one of the best seasons of his career. By TW%, Gray’s current team is on pace to rank as his third-best, trailing only his GOAT team from 2016 (a league-record .808 TW%) and his 2011 team, which won six of the first eight weekly prizes to start the season. This team is that good. Case in point, Gray has held at least a share of the top spot in the Power Rankings since Week 3 and has never scored fewer than 110 points in a single game, always finishing in the top half of the league in scoring.
Of course, the key to those performances has been the play of his terrific trio of pass-catchers—Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp and Travis Kelce. Currently, they rank first, fifth and sixth among all flex-eligible players in fantasy. Averaging a combined 65.4 ppg, those three have more than made up for lackluster QB play (11.2 ppg, last in the league) and below-average RBs (28.1 ppg, 10th). But what happens to a three-legged stool when you take one of those supports away? We’re about to find out.
This week, Gray was dealt a blow when Cooper Kupp suffered a high-ankle sprain in a loss to the Cardinals. Now, according to Adam Schefter, Kupp will miss at least four weeks following surgery that could potentially keep him out for even longer. For those keeping track at home, there are also four weeks left in the fantasy regular season. That means Gray will have to secure his place in the playoffs without Kupp. And then hope for Kupp’s return if he can get there.
And to make matters worse, Gray is suddenly no “sure thing” to make the playoffs. Thanks in part to an early exit for Kupp, Gray lost his Week 10 game to Josh, his second loss of eight points or less and his third loss in a row. After starting 6-1 and seemingly coasting to a first-round bye, Gray is now 6-4 and only one game up on teams competing for the final playoff spot. I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s not impossible that Gray loses three of his last four games, finishes 7-7 and gets passed up in points by a team owner in a similar situation like Nick or Brandon, currently only trailing Gray by 27.06 and 44.06 points, respectively.
The Playoff Picture (below) won’t fully account for this because it assumes current tiebreakers hold true. And I don’t have a way to account for the Kupp injury unless I were to artificially lower Gray’s TW%. But I would say Gray’s odds are suddenly a little closer to Josh’s who is also 6-4 and has similarly dealt with a season-ending injury to a stud player (Javonte Williams).
Of course, all of this could change next week. The fantasy gods are fickle creatures.
Scoreboard
Samantha upsets Chelsie. Josh takes down Gray. And Geoff picks up a key win.
Before we run through the Week 10 action, let’s start by taking a look at the playoff landscape.With four games to go, here are the standings with the teams currently in the playoffs in bold.
8-2: Chelsie
7-3: Samantha
6-4: Gray, Nick, Josh
5-5: Geoff, Erik
4-6: Brandon, Greco, Beth Ann
3-7: Jess
2-8: Alex
Let’s tackle them group by group, starting at the top.
Huge win this week for Samantha! As was chronicled in the group text, Samantha upset Chelsie despite just 104.2 points scored. It was a stunning comeback thanks to Jalen Hurts improbably outscoring both A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert (two of Hurts’ pass-catchers) by 10.8 points on Monday night. That gave Samantha just enough margin to squeak by Chelsie, handing the league newbie just her second loss of the season, while guaranteeing herself at least a 7-7 finish. With Gray’s loss this week, that suddenly puts Samantha in the driver’s seat for a first-round bye.
Speaking of Gray, his loss to Josh now gives both team owners 6-4 records as Justin Jefferson (35.3 points) outdueled both Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp (18.3 points combined) thanks in part to this incredible catch. That’s a huge win for Josh who got one of the three big wins he likely needs down the stretch against tough competition. (Two more to go.) They are joined by Nick at 6-4 who kept his winning streak alive and has now won five straight games, the longest active streak in the league after Chelsie’s loss this week.
In a pivotal matchup we highlighted in last week’s Power Rankings, Geoff picked the right time to win his second weekly prize of the season thanks to a nice day for CeeDee Lamb (38.0 points) and Dak Prescott (19.2 points). Now both he and Erik are tied at 5-5, though Geoff currently leads Erik by 38.46 points for the tiebreaker.
As for the next group of team owners on the outside looking in, Brandon defeated Beth Ann to run his winning streak to three games while getting an assist from Beth Ann, herself, who started an inactive Kyler Murray. (Not that it would have made a difference given the final margin.) Meanwhile, still reeling from the loss of Ja’Marr Chase and Mike Williams, Greco was not able to overcome a big day from Nick.
Finally, Alex got his second win of the season, mercifully putting an end to a five-game losing streak. That’s good news for Alex but bad news for Jess who is now 3-7. Both are facing long odds to make the playoffs, though neither has been eliminated just yet.
Power Rankings
Alex is officially out of the basement, moves to 11th, his highest ranking since Week 1.
1. Gray
6-4, .764 TW%, 127.5 ppg
Could Gray really miss the playoffs? Again, I don’t think it’s likely. He needs two wins to lock up a spot. And even if he wins just one more game the rest of the season, he has a 91% chance to make it in. This week might be tough to get that win because, in addition to Cooper Kupp, he’ll be without Tyreek Hill who is on bye. That gives his opponent, Jess, a real shot at the upset, potentially pushing Gray’s losing streak to four games. But the real impact of the Kupp injury is that this year’s championship is suddenly wide open. I hate that it had to have happened this way as a result of an injury to a key player, but Gray is suddenly mortal. And it will be really interesting to see how his Kupp-less team performs in the weeks ahead. Plus, can he hold on to the top spot in the rankings? He has a big enough margin that it would take at least a couple of bad weeks for someone to catch him.
2. Nick (▲1)
6-4, .636 TW%, 124.8 ppg
If there’s anyone that most benefits from the power vacuum created by the Kupp injury, perhaps it’s Nick. Since his 1-4 start, Nick has won five straight games and leads the league in TW% (.764) and scoring (133.8 ppg) over that time. With four games to go, Nick is very much in play for a top-two seed. According to this week’s Playoff Picture, he has an 18% chance to claim a first-round bye. With the third-easiest schedule remaining (including only one game against a team in the top half of the Power Rankings), his bruising RBs could easily lead him to the two wins he needs to lock up a playoff spot. His most likely finish, according to the computers, is to go 3-1 down the stretch and enter the playoffs at 9-4, potentially tied with Samantha or Gray, but with a good shot to lead both in points.
3. Brandon (▲1)
4-6, .618 TW%, 123.1 ppg
Don’t look now but Brandon is on a three-game winning streak. Granted, the competition hasn’t been tough—not one of his opponents have topped 102 points in that time. But Brandon’s team has been playing well. In fact, he has arguably the best team in the league over the last three weeks, leading the league in TW% (.788) and is second in scoring (135.1 ppg). No surprise that with Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey (both top-eight picks in this year’s draft), Brandon is leading the league in RB scoring lately (50.6 ppg since McCaffrey’s first full game with the 49ers). Even better, he’s been doing it without Mark Andrews who has a chance to play this week for the first time since Week 8. Not to mention, dare I say it, Keenan Allen??? (We can dream.) And yet, let’s not count our chickens yet. Having started 1-6, Brandon likely needs to win at least three of his final four games, which includes tough games against Chelsie and Gray, plus a retooled Josh (more on that below). There’s still a long way to go, but Brandon is officially halfway there.
4. Chelsie (▼2)
8-2, .609 TW%, 125.8 ppg
In Week 10, Chelsie dropped just her second game this season, having previously lost to Beth Ann and now Samantha. (She remains undefeated against the fellas.) After two weekly prizes in a row, she posted her second-lowest score of the season with just 100.94 points. In a week in which her top-flight receiving group was solid, not spectacular, she struggled to put up the points with down days for the AJs (Dillon and Brown) who combined for just 8.2 points, not to mention the injury to Dallas Goedert. But the league’s most RB-challenged team owner may finally have some reinforcements. Enter Devin Singletary (currently RB24 and now the highest-scoring RB on her roster ahead of Najee Harris) who Chelsie acquired in a trade with Josh in exchange for Justin Fields. So far this season, it appears Chelsie’s bench has been the breeding ground for emerging QBs. The team owner who spent an early second-round pick on Patrick Mahomes, Chelsie has cashed in on flyers like Tua Tagovailoa (QB4 in points per games he started and finished) and Fields (QB4 overall) to strengthen her roster elsewhere.
5. Samantha (▼1)
7-3, .573 TW%, 114.6 ppg
Make that four wins in a row for Samantha whose comeback victory over Chelsie has helped her reach seven wins for the fourth time in five years. The beneficiary of some close calls, Samantha has now won three games by five points or less. And she won a fourth by under 10. That’s a total of four wins decided by a combined 16.24 points! Despite the win, she drops one spot into fifth place in the Power Rankings due to the relatively low point total. Still, with seven wins in the books, the computer says Samantha has a 71% chance to make the playoffs even if she never wins another game. Win one more game (and she’s got four chances to do that) and that number jumps to 99.95%. With Ezekiel Elliott likely to make his return to the lineup for the first time since Week 7, plus the possible emergence of Kadarius Toney (19.0 points last week), this team might have just what it takes to claim her first-ever top-two seed.
6. Greco
4-6, .482 TW%, 112.6 ppg
Let’s rewind the clock to the Week 7 Power Rankings, just three weeks ago:
At 4-3 and third in the league in scoring, Greco’s in great shape (if she can weather the Chase injury until he returns) and a definite contender this season.
Did I say that??? Suddenly, that seems to be a little bit in doubt. Greco has since dropped three games and three spots in the Power Rankings, falling below .500 in TW% and losing nearly 7.0 ppg. The culprit? Obviously, losing sixth overall pick Ja’Marr Chase isn’t great (a potential harbinger for Gray and Cooper Kupp). But at least Mike Williams may finally return this week. And to help staunch the bleeding, Greco traded away Josh Jacobs—one of the year’s biggest draft-day values (the 67th overall pick but currently RB6)—to acquire Lamar Jackson (QB6) from Josh. It’s a much higher price to pay for a QB than what Josh paid for an even better QB in Justin Fields (Devin Singletary is just RB24), but Greco has depth at the RB position. With the injury to Khalil Herbert, maybe David Montgomery gets more work. He along with Nick Chubb (RB5) and Antonio Gibson (RB17) could conceivably keep Greco among the league leaders in RB scoring (currently second) while boosting her considerably in the QB department (currently ninth). With her next three games against the bottom three teams in the Power Rankings, now’s the time to turn it on as Greco’s season is officially in the balance.
7. Geoff (▲2)
5-5, .473 TW%, 110.7 ppg
Big win for Geoff in Week 10 who ended a three-game losing streak with a weekly prize, his second on the year. Only 13.3 points from RB1 Austin Ekeler, and Geoff still totaled 146.0 points thanks to huge games from CeeDee Lamb (38.0 points), Amon-Ra St. Brown (22.1 points) and Dak Prescott (19.2 points), whose eventual return I’ve been anticipating for only like…seven weeks now. Speaking of a return, James Conner is also back and had 23.6 points on Geoff’s bench. Knock on wood but (J.K. Dobbins and David Njoku aside) this team has never been healthier. If the playoffs started today, Geoff would be the last team in. And the Playoff Picture likes him too, giving him a 44% chance—a jump of +30% from last week thanks to a clutch win over Erik. This week, he has an equally big game against Josh who will be without Kenneth Walker. Based on where he stands in the tiebreaker, Geoff’s chances are just a coin flip if he only gets to seven wins. Better to gun for eight, which means winning three of his last four. So every game counts, especially this week against another rival competing for a playoff spot.
Geoff (+30%) and Josh (+28%) rise as Erik (-44%) and Greco (-19%) fall in the latest Playoff Picture.
8. Josh
6-4, .464 TW%, 109.2 ppg
Well…somebody’s been busy. Not one to rest on his laurels, Josh upset Gray (in part due to the Cooper Kupp injury) and then got to work. Through three trades with three different team owners over two days, Josh transformed his team. Let’s take a look at the ledger:
OUT:
Lamar Jackson (QB6, 21.8 ppg)
Devin Singletary (RB24, 11.3 ppg)
Jakobi Meyers (WR33, 14.7 ppg)
IN:
Justin Fields (QB4, 20.4 ppg)
Josh Jacobs (RB6, 19.5 ppg)
Elijah Mitchell (RB92, 7.0 ppg)
The owner of two top-seven QBs (Lamar Jackson and Geno Smith), Josh mysteriously traded for a third in Justin Fields—the second-year QB who’s been lighting it up for the Bears, averaging 32.9 ppg over his last four games. The price? Devin Singletary. A solid piece and a gamble considering Josh is currently 11th in RB scoring and Singletary was his second-best RB. The key was going to be what Josh could get for one of his other QBs.
And boy did he get something. Turning Lamar Jackson into Josh Jacobs was huge. We already talked about it from Greco’s perspective. But from Josh’s, that’s a major upgrade. Actually, it’s TWO upgrades. In a series of two deals, Josh somehow got a better QB (Fields) and a much better RB (Jacobs).
In retrospect, there was likely a deal that could have been made between Chelsie and Greco for Fields and Jacobs. But to the active team owner go the spoils. And credit to Josh for reaching out to other team owners in the league to see what they needed and how much they’d be willing to pay for it. Hey, you never know until you ask. That’s Mooneyball.
Now Josh has a lineup that includes four studs—Justin Fields (QB4), Josh Jacobs (RB6), Kenneth Walker (RB16) and, of course, Justin Jefferson (WR3). That’s a whole new ballgame. I’m curious if he’d do the Elijah Mitchell deal again if he knew he was going to get Josh Jacobs one day later. Seems unnecessary and I’d rather have Meyers in the flex (says the guy who’s incentivized to hope Mitchell’s role in San Francisco is minimal). But with four games to go and six wins to his name, Josh is suddenly back in business.
9. Erik (▼2)
5-5, .427 TW%, 106.9 ppg
It’s hard for Joe Mixon to score 55 points when he’s on bye. Perhaps that was the missing piece as Erik laid an egg against Geoff in a pivotal game. As a result, his playoff chances plummeted back down to 22% from 66% just last week. That’s because many of the models that had him making the playoffs saw him winning this game. With the loss (his fifth) and his position within the tiebreaker (currently ninth in total points), Erik likely needs three (if not four) more wins to make the playoffs. Case in point, in simulations where Erik finished 7-7, he only made the playoffs 17% of the time. And if he’s going to win three games, he’s going to have to do it against some pretty tough competition—namely Samantha, Brandon and Nick. His next three opponents are ranked fifth, third and second in the Power Rankings. To make the playoffs, he probably needs to win two of his next three and then beat Alex in the regular season finale. If healthy, this team has weapons. (Fingers crossed JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquise Brown return soon.) But they’ll need to be firing on all cylinders from here on out.
10. Beth Ann (▼1)
4-6, .373 TW%, 103.5 ppg
Nothing went right for Beth Ann who scored 81.2 points—a career low for herself in the PPR era. Starting an inactive Kyler Murray (hamstring), Beth Ann also saw Jerry Jeudy exit early with an ankle injury without scoring a point. Though Terry McLaurin (20.8 points) and Tony Pollard (21.8 points) played well, it was not nearly enough as Beth Ann lost her second straight game and her fourth in the last five. Now with six losses on the season, that’s already more losses for her than in either of the last two years. As for the playoffs, Beth Ann officially enters long shot territory. Even if she wins out, she does not control her own destiny due to the fact that she trails all likely competitors for a final playoff spot in total points. That being said, if she can somehow pull the upset over Nick this week, she has one of the easiest remaining schedules with her last three games against Alex, Greco and Jess, who all have issues of their own. If she can win out, the computer gives her a 90% chance to make it in.
11. Alex (▲1)
2-8, .300 TW%, 97.8 ppg
Congrats to Alex who finally picked up his second win of the season, defeating Jess 112.1-85.32. Despite injury scares for Josh Allen and Aaron Jones in Week 9, both finished as top-seven players at their positions in Week 10. Jerick McKinnon (with 11.8 points scored) was also a great plug-and-play from the free agent pile, proving Alex isn’t giving up yet. So with only two wins to his name and just four games to go, what exactly is Alex playing for? You might be surprised to learn he’s not eliminated yet. There’s officially no chance of a first-round bye as two team owners have already reached the seven-win mark. But if Alex can win out, he’d get to 6-8. If we assume he pours on the points and climbs to the top of the tiebreaker list, the computer gives him a not insignificant 9.4% chance of making the playoffs. To be clear, that’s a lot of what-ifs. But there’s still light at the end of this tunnel. (Go toward the light, Alex!) Plus, there’s pride on the line. Though Alex does have a 2-10-1 season on the books from 2014, his actual worst-ever season was 2016 when he finished with a TW% of .413. That means Alex needs to go 31-13 in true games down the stretch to avoid worst-ing himself.
12. Jess (▼1)
3-7, .282 TW%, 97.0 ppg
Losing to Alex this past week was…not good for Jess. With her fourth straight loss—all with under 93 points scored—Jess’ chances of making the playoffs now stand at just 0.12%. Worse, she’s now last in the Power Rankings, having been passed by Alex following his Week 10 victory. If there is a good sign, it’s that Jonathan Taylor (24.3 points) looked great for the first time since at least Week 7. But she’s going to need a lot more of that moving forward as she faces off against Gray this week. Ironically, the two team owners who picked first and second in this year’s Worst League draft are now the favorites to appear in the Poop Bowl, proving that, once again, you can’t predict anything in fantasy.
Looking Ahead to Week 11
Okay, four games to go. And this week’s most pivotal matchup yet again involves Geoff (5-5), this time taking on Josh (6-4). If the playoffs started today, these two would be the last two in. But somebody’s gonna lose this game and potentially get bumped out. Josh’s new-look team is dangerous but will be playing without Kenneth Walker this week. That could be the perfect time for Geoff to strike.
The week’s other matchups include:
Chelsie (8-2) vs. Brandon (4-6)
Samantha (7-3) vs. Erik (5-5)
Gray (6-4) vs. Jess (3-7)
Nick (6-4) vs. Beth Ann (4-6)
Greco (4-6) vs. Alex (2-8)
Can Brandon keep winning? Will Samantha clinch a playoff spot? Can Gray put a stop to his three-game skid? Is Nick unstoppable? And can Greco get right against Alex with her season on the line?
I can’t wait to see how it all unfolds. And next week, we bring back…the WALL OF DESTINY (echoes: DESTINY, DEStiny, des-tiny…). Good luck to everyone in Week 11!
