Week 9 Power Rankings
Like Aretha Franklin, like LeBron after his fourth championship, like Rodney Dangerfield, Chelsie is demanding our respect. Or at least, her fantasy team is. While Chelsie is too polite to “demand” anything, her fantasy team is downright rude. One week after manhandling the so-called “best team” in the league, she tossed former champion Geoff aside like a rag doll and has now defeated her last two opponents by an average of 79.0 ppg.
But apparently, I’ve been the one giving Chelsie nightmares:
“Had a dream this week (while on cold meds) that Brandon kicked me out of the playoffs because while ‘I had a winning record, my team wasn’t that good’”
First of all, I don’t have the authority for those kind of shenanigans. And second, your team is officially “that good.” Chelsie definitely deserves her plaudits and I deserve to eat some crow, because I’ve been admittedly skeptical of her team in this space. I’ve called her “lucky” and described her RB situation as “concern[ing]” and having “obvious deficiencies.”
But the only thing deficient about Chelsie’s team is my analysis. In Week 9, she led all team owners with 163.84 points and has now won back-to-back weekly prizes while averaging 176.92 ppg. In fact, she has the 17th team in league history to win back-to-back weekly prizes and the first since Erik (Weeks 8-9) and Nick (Weeks 1-2) did it last year. With three total weekly prizes on the season, she’s also tied for the most weekly prizes in a single year since Gray won four in 2019.
As a result, Chelsie has run her winning streak to five games and her overall record to 8-1. She has just the fifth team to accomplish that feat with the previous four belonging to Gray (2011 and 2020), Brandon (2019) and Josh (2019). It should be noted that all four made the playoffs with three ending up in the championship game. All good signs for Chelsie.
With her playoff berth all but locked up, she faces off against Samantha this week with the chance to become one of only three team owners in league history to start 9-1. And beyond that…the elusive 10-1—a record we’ve never seen.
But then again, we’ve never seen Chelsie either. And she’s doing things in just her debut season that demand not only our attention, but more importantly, our respect. 🫡
Scoreboard
Erik upsets Gray thanks to Joe Mixon’s historic 55.1-point day.
Let’s tackle these in order of the standings.
For the second week in a row and the third time this year, Chelsie led all scorers, easily defeating Geoff in the process. She now runs her league-best record to 8-1. With just five games remaining in the regular season, she has now guaranteed herself—at minimum—a winning season in her first year. Well done! 👏
Still second in the standings, Gray unceremoniously lost his second game in a row, this time in gut-wrenching fashion as he nearly overcame Joe Mixon’s historic day. Unfortunately, Justin Tucker came up one field goal short of a victory on Monday night. He is now 6-3 along with Samantha who defeated Beth Ann, running her current winning streak to three games. Notably, Gray still leads Samantha by over 100 points as it relates to a potential tiebreaker for a first-round bye.
Speaking of Mixon, Erik rode his second-round pick to a victory and is now 5-4 along with Nick (who defeated Alex) and Josh (who defeated Jess). Speaking of Nick, he now has the second-longest winning streak in the league at four games. Meanwhile, Josh ended a two-game losing streak to keep himself on the right side of .500. If the playoffs started today, these six would be in.
As for the teams on the outside, Greco, Geoff and Beth Ann all lost and are now 4-5. Geoff, in particular, is in a bit of a freefall, having lost three straight games since starting 4-2. His 77% chance of making the playoffs has since dropped to just 14%. (See more details in the Playoff Picture below.)
Finally, as for the teams at the very bottom of the standings, Jess and Alex have now run their losing streaks to three and five games, respectively. But, if there is a bright spot, Brandon won his second straight game and third overall. He is now 3-6 after a win over Greco and currently has the eighth-best odds to make the playoffs. Hey, I’ve seen worse.
Power Rankings
Chelsie passes Nick for second place though Gray still leads by a comfortable distance.
1. Gray
6-3, .788 TW%, 129.3 ppg
If anyone could survive Joe Mixon’s 55.1 points, it’s Gray. But even he couldn’t overcome the Bengal’s five-TD onslaught, losing for the second week in a row and the third time this season. His 131.38 points in Week 9 were the second-most in a loss this season. And it’s the second time he’s lost this year with a top-three score. Despite the loss, the league’s best team is still playing incredibly well. And this week, his trade for Jamaal Williams (RB15) and the emergence of Jeff Wilson in Miami (16.2 points in Week 9) provided some much-needed RB depth. With five weeks left in the regular season, Gray’s sights are surely set on securing a top-two seed and a first-round bye. It’s not a slam dunk, but given the strength of his team, his points lead and a relatively light schedule (upcoming matchups vs. Josh, Geoff and Jess—all in the bottom half of the rankings), the computer gives him a 99.92% chance to secure his first bye since 2019—his last championship season.
2. Chelsie (▲1)
8-1, .646 TW%, 128.6 ppg
Is Chelsie a lock for the playoffs? Technically no. With five games to go, every team (except Alex’s) could feasibly catch Chelsie in wins if she were to lose out. But let’s be real. Chelsie is playoff bound. At 8-1, even if she loses all five of her remaining games, she would still finish with an 8-6 record. And in the history of the league, no team with at least eight wins (all 45 of them) has ever failed to make a six-team playoff. The only (slight) exception is Greco’s 2011 squad, which finished 8-5 but missed the playoffs. But again, that was before playoff expansion when only four teams made the playoffs. If a six-team playoff had existed, she would have easily been the five seed. Barring a collapse, Chelsie is likely not only a lock for the playoffs but the clear frontrunner for the top overall seed in just her debut season. Not too shabby. 💁♀️
3. Nick (▼1)
5-4, .616 TW%, 124.2 ppg
Though he drops one spot in this week’s Power Rankings, Nick picked up yet another win and looked good doing it. With first-round pick Saquon Barkley on bye, Nick easily defeated Alex by over 50 points and has now scored at least 118 points in five straight games. And while the two team owners ahead of him in the rankings are powered by pass-catchers, Nick does his damage on the ground. Thanks to Travis Etienne’s 23.6 ppg over the last three weeks, Nick continues to lead the league in RB scoring (41.8 ppg) despite a surge from Erik and Joe Mixon this week. He’s also the only team owner in the league with three top-12 RBs in Barkley, Etienne and Rhamondre Stevenson. His one weakness? TE. Nick ranks last in TE scoring with just 4.8 ppg and has gotten more than five points from his TE just twice this season. That includes Week 10 as Kyle Pitts has already played in the early game on Thursday night, scoring just 4.8 points—right on his season-long average.
T4. Brandon
3-6, .586 TW%, 122.2 ppg
Brandon’s not dead…yet. With a comfortable victory of 30+ points, Brandon has his first winning streak of the season, having beaten Alex and Greco in back-to-back weeks. Granted, this was a great week to play Greco who was without Nick Chubb (bye), Ja’Marr Chase (injury), Mike Williams (injury), Brandon Aiyuk (bye) and even the Cowboys D/ST (bye). But Brandon had absences of his own. Despite playing without Christian McCaffrey (bye) and Mark Andrews (injury), Brandon scored 125.98 points behind Tua Tagovailoa (24.08 points), Derrick Henry (23.5 points) and Christian Kirk (21.6 points). Henry, in particular has been spectacular, scoring 20+ points in all but one game since Week 3 and is now RB2 in points per game, trailing only Austin Ekeler. And Tagovailoa has finished as a top-12 QB each week since he returned from injury, including two top-five weeks in a row. Brandon still needs to keep winning and can likely only drop one more game, but there is a path. One game at a time…
T4. Samantha (▲1)
6-3, .586 TW%, 115.7 ppg
I know I’m biased, but…Samantha is HOT! 🔥 With her Week 9 victory over Beth Ann, Samantha now has six wins in the last seven weeks. In fact, since she started the season 0-2, she leads the league in wins (six) and is second only to Gray in TW% (.662) over that time. She’s also the only team owner who ranks in the top half of the league in scoring at QB, RB, WR and TE over the last seven weeks. Despite that, her scoring is a tick below where you might expect based on her TW%, trailing the other team owners in the top four by at least 6.4 ppg. But with six wins already in the books, she probably just needs to go 1-4 down the stretch to make the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons. And if she gets two wins? I’d say she’s probably a lock.
6. Greco (▼3)
4-5, .495 TW%, 113.7 ppg
Now things get interesting. Every team owner from fifth to ninth is within a game of what is currently the final playoff spot. With two teams tied for ninth, that's five team owners—Greco, Erik, Josh, Geoff and Beth Ann. And chief among them is Greco. Just two weeks ago, she was third in the rankings with a 4-3 record. But after injuries to Ja’Marr Chase and Mike Williams, Greco’s team has taken a hit with two straight losses in which she failed to score 100 points. That’s also coincided with a cooling off for Josh Jacobs (just 9.6 ppg over his last two games). The good news? With the best TW% and the most points scored among teams below her in the rankings, Greco is currently projected to make the playoffs with a 53% chance. She also has the easiest remaining schedule with games against Alex, Jess and Beth Ann from Weeks 11-13—the three team owners in the bottom three of the rankings. Because the magic number for the playoffs tends to be seven wins, if she can win those three games, she’ll be in decent shape even if she drops tougher matchups against Nick and Chelsie.
7. Erik (▲3)
5-4, .455 TW%, 109.1 ppg
Nobody improved their playoff odds more this week than Erik. Thanks in large part to Joe Mixon’s big day, Erik’s odds jumped from 16% last week to 66% this week. That’s the biggest one-week swing in playoff odds we’ve seen this season, largely because Erik was not expected to win this game. In fact, Erik had not topped 104.22 points in four straight weeks, and the computer gave him just a 15% to pull the upset over Gray. But thanks to 55.1 points from Joe Mixon—the most points from a RB in league history and the third-most all time—Erik is now 5-4 with at least two games remaining against teams below him in the rankings, specifically Geoff and Alex. As a result, the computer likes Erik’s path to at least seven wins and currently projects him as a playoff team. Now, he just needs to finish strong. Last year at this time, five of the six teams projected to make the playoffs did so. The one exception? Erik who lost three of his last five games and found himself on the outside looking in.
Erik’s playoff chances jumped by 50% this week as he’s not only projected to make the playoffs, but would be the five seed if the playoffs started today.
8. Josh (▲1)
5-4, .434 TW%, 108.0 ppg
Signs of life from Josh who posted his first game of above-average scoring since Week 3. With 120.72 points scored, Josh comfortably cruised past Jess thanks to big days from his three stars—Lamar Jackson (17.52 points), Kenneth Walker (27.9 points) and Justin Jefferson (25.5 points). Those three combined for 59% of Josh’s total output and nearly had enough to beat a hobbled Jess by themselves. And if the playoffs started today, Josh would be in. But the real test is coming in the weeks ahead. Specifically, both Jackson and Walker have their byes in Weeks 10 and 11 as Josh faces off against the league’s toughest remaining schedule with games against four of the top-five teams in the rankings—Gray, Nick, Brandon and Samantha. Given his lack of scoring overall, Josh probably needs to get to eight wins (not seven) to make the playoffs. So that means going 3-2 against that gauntlet. What Josh really needs is for lottery ticket pickups like Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham or Kyren Williams to hit. Hey, somebody won $2.04 billion the other day. As they say, you gotta play to win. 🎰
T9. Geoff (▼2)
4-5, .414 TW%, 106.8 ppg
In Week 9, Geoff had his worst game of the season, scoring a season-low 79.36 points (with only another 6.2 on the bench). That’s the fourth time this season he’s finished with a bottom-three score and the second straight week. As a result, Geoff has sunk to ninth, his lowest ranking of the season, and finds himself in the midst of a three-game losing streak. With a relatively tough schedule ahead (the fourth-toughest by opponents’ TW%), things have looked better for Geoff who now has just a 14% chance to make the playoffs. All that being said, the picture is not completely bleak. Geoff is only one game back of the final playoff spot right now and still very much controls his own destiny. And I continue to be optimistic about his chances. Playing without Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper in Week 9 (all on bye), it was always going to be hard to pull off a win against Chelsie. But now those guys are back, and with D’Onta Foreman doing his best Derrick Henry impression (19.0 points already on Thursday night), Geoff has a more-than-capable roster. The key will be if Prescott can elevate Geoff’s QB production, which currently ranks second-to-last in the league. With a pivotal matchup against Erik this week, Geoff has a great shot to get back to .500.
T9. Beth Ann (▼1)
4-5, .414 TW%, 106.0 ppg
Looks like last week’s 154.04-point explosion might have been a one-week blip. With Tony Pollard on bye and D’Andre Swift still limited, Beth Ann’s team fell back to Earth, scoring just 83.5 points in a loss to Samantha. (It didn’t help that Brandin Cooks was surprisingly inactive on Thursday night.) Outside of Week 8 and her runner-up finish for the weekly prize in Week 1, Beth Ann has finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring in all other weeks this season, more often finishing with fewer than 100 points than not. But the silver lining? Beth Ann has the second-easiest remaining schedule in the league. After two tough games against Brandon and Nick, she finishes with Alex, Greco and Jess. To make the playoffs, she probably needs to split her matchups with Brandon and Nick and then sweep those last three opponents. It would help if Kyler Murray’s hamstring issue is not serious.
11. Jess
3-6, .303 TW%, 98.2 ppg
With six wins or more, Chelsie, Gray and Samantha are in great shape. Nick—at third in the Power Rankings with five wins—is also in a good position. After that, you’ve got six team owners (Erik, Greco, Josh, Brandon, Beth Ann and Geoff) with between a 14-66% chance, competing for two spots. And then, we come to the final two long shots starting with…Jess.
The loser of five of her last six games, including three straight, Jess’ narrative continues to be about injuries. No Jonathan Taylor in Week 9 was a killer. The second overall pick in this year’s draft is currently RB36, one of the year’s biggest busts. But he’s not the only one. Take a look at Jess’ first six picks:
1.2 Jonathan Taylor (RB36, missed three games)
2.23 Deebo Samuel (WR30, missed one game)
3.26 Michael Pittman (WR18, missed one game)
4.47 Breece Hall (RB18, out for season)
5.50 Dalton Schultz (TE30, missed two games)
6.71 Michael Thomas (WR71, out for season)
Breece Hall’s the only smash success from that group and he’s out for the year. Not to autopsy this team early, but it’s just so hard to overcome that start even with solid mid-to-late round picks like Cordarrelle Patterson (RB31), Miles Sanders (RB16) and Gerald Everett (TE10).
So…is there a path for Jess? Trailing in points (and currently averaging under 100 ppg), Jess only has a 21% chance to make the playoffs even if she gets to seven wins. That means she probably needs to win out. She has Alex this week. But a matchup with Gray in Week 11 looms large. As we said with Brandon, it’s best to take this one game at a time. With Patterson healthy, a team that includes Taylor, Sanders, and Patterson at RB plus Pittman and Samuel at WR can do some damage. It’s not over yet.
12. Alex
1-8, .263 TW%, 96.2 ppg
Ugh…the nightmare season continues for the commish. With half his team on bye, the other half might as well have been as he totaled just 62.6 points in Week 9—the fewest points scored by any team owner this season. Of course, after trading for Josh Allen and Aaron Jones in Week 7, both suffered injuries in Week 9. While Jones’ ankle does not appear serious, Allen’s UCL sprain to his right elbow may cause him to miss some time or potentially limit the MVP candidate’s effectiveness if he is available. So what does that mean for Alex? Obviously, he needs both to be healthy. The schedule is favorable. (Just one game against a team with a TW% above .500—Chelsie.) But he has to win out. And even then, the league’s last-place team in scoring needs to pile on the points and hope for a tiebreaker. If I gave Alex the points tiebreaker and re-run the simulations, he makes the playoffs in eight out of 10,000 simulations—a 0.08% chance. In short, it’s the longest of long shots.
Looking Ahead to Week 10
This week’s premier matchup is between Chelsie (8-1) and Samantha (6-3). Both team owners are on winning streaks of at least three games. Can Samantha halt Chelsie’s progress? Or will Chelsie become just the third team owner to start 9-1?
In a game with playoff implications, I’m also riveted by the Erik (5-4) vs. Geoff (4-5) matchup. Both team owners have tough games ahead and could use this week’s win to put themselves in a good position moving forward.
Similarly, Nick (5-4) face offs against Greco (4-5). Nick is surging with four straight wins while Greco is reeling following key injuries to Ja’Marr Chase and Mike Williams. Can she halt her two-game losing streak? Remember, the schedule gets easier for her later, but this would be a nice win to give herself some breathing room.
If Josh (5-4) can somehow pull the upset over Gray (6-3), they would improbably be tied in the standings with the same record. Playing without Lamar Jackson, it’ll be a tall order going up against the league’s best team. But Gray is currently on a losing streak of two games, himself.
Beth Ann (4-5) will try to right the ship against Brandon (3-6). Can Brandon keep the comeback alive? Or will the league’s reigning champ, who could use a win, herself, put a dagger into Brandon’s playoff hopes?
And finally, it’s Jess (3-6) vs. Alex (1-8) in a matchup of teams that absolutely, positively have to get a win. As we said, there’s a path for Jess even with seven losses. But Alex cannot lose any more games. This one is a must-win.
That’s it for Week 9. Thanks again for reading and good luck to everyone in Week 10! Only five more weeks left in the regular season…
