Week 12 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Fantasy football is an emotional roller coaster. 🎢

Some weeks you’re up—hands aloft, adrenaline surging. And some weeks you face Josh Jacobs with a spot in the playoffs on the line. His 86-yard walk-off (run-off?) TD in overtime catapulted another Josh (our very own) to a 148.26-141.32 victory over Samantha in Week 12. That run alone—the last play of the game—was worth 14.6 points, which was ultimately the difference in a game decided by just 6.94 points. That’ll make any team owner queasy…. 🤢

As a result of the win, Samantha (now 7-5) must wait another week to clinch a playoff spot despite back-to-back losses with 130+ points scored. In fact, her playoff chances dipped this week from 95% to 83%. I can confirm she was not pleased and even ventured to call me the j-word (ya know…“jinx”). Meanwhile, Josh’s mood no doubt soared in line with his playoff chances, which jumped from 24% after Week 11 to 60% after Week 12. That 36% increase in playoff chances is one of the largest one-week jumps we’ve seen.

In fact, here’s a look at the most impactful one-week results this season sorted by the resulting change in playoff chances for the affected team owner:

Top Five Vomit-Inducing Losses 🤮

1. Brandon loses to Erik, W12 (-47.4%)
2. Erik loses to Geoff, W10 (-43.8%)
3. Josh loses to Geoff, W11 (-38.6%)
4. Brandon loses to Jess, W6 (-36.4%)
5. Josh loses to Chelsie, W7 (-35.4%)

Top Five Spine-Tingling Wins 🤩

1. Erik defeats Gray, W9 (+49.6%)
2. Geoff defeats Gray, W12 (+46.9%)
3. Nick defeats Samantha, W6 (+38.1%)
4. Josh defeats Samantha, W12 (+35.6)
5. Greco defeats Geoff, W7 (+32.4%)

As you can see, Josh’s Jacobs-fueled win this week saw the fourth-biggest swing in playoff chances for any team owner this year. Other big wins included Erik’s narrow 1.92-point upset of Gray in Week 9, Geoff’s weekly prize (also over Gray) this week, Nick’s season-saving win over Samantha in Week 6 to get to 2-4, and Greco’s Week 7 weekly prize over Geoff that pushed her briefly into the top three of the Power Rankings before injuries to Ja’Marr Chase and Mike William likely sunk her season.

On the flip side, every up has its down. And there have been some soul-crushing losses. Chief among them was Brandon’s loss this week to Erik, which dropped him from a favorite (55%) to a long shot (8%). Other big losses include Erik’s Week 10 loss to Geoff (impressively his only loss since starting 2-4), Josh’s 0.52-point back-breaker to Geoff last week, Brandon’s Week 6 loss to Jess that dropped him to 1-5, and Josh’s Week 7 loss to Chelsie in which he scored a season-low 75.9 points.

Interestingly, Josh is one of the only team owners whose name appears in both lists, indicative of the emotional roller coaster that has been his season. And that doesn’t even take into account the Javonte Williams injury, the Kenneth Walker emergence or his recent trades for Justin Fields, Josh Jacobs and Elijah Mitchell. If we plot out his playoff chances (along with every other team owner) by week, you can literally see his fantasy fortunes rise and fall…and rise and fall…and rise again.

Josh’s playoff chances (orange) have been among the most volatile over the course of the season.

Josh’s team is highlighted in orange, but you can find your team in there as well by identifying the circles with your initial on them. (Note: Gc = Greco, Gf = Geoff, Gy = Gray, Je = Jess and Jo = Josh.)

For most of the season, the league’s top four teams in the standings have had a relatively smooth ride. That’s Chelsie, Gray, Nick and Samantha. Nick and Samantha both had bumpy starts of 1-4 and 0-2, respectively. But since Week 8, they’ve both been living in the >75% territory of the chart. On the flip side, Beth Ann, Jess and Alex have all taken up residence in the bottom quartile. Certainly, that’s not a fun ride. But at least you don’t have the stomach-churning loop-de-loops. 🤷‍♂️

But for everyone else, it’s been a rough-and-tumble adventure. That includes Geoff, Erik, Josh, Greco and Brandon whose playoff chances have seen sharp increases and sudden drops throughout the latter half of the season. Most recently, Geoff, Erik and Josh just saw big jumps in Week 12 with Brandon and Greco falling into the danger zone.

Of course, there’s still two weeks left before the playoffs begin. So that just means more time for additional twists and turns. Even if you’re riding high now, you never know what’s around the next turn. After all, what goes up…

Scoreboard

Every single six-win team won in Week 12, which means we have 7 teams within a game of first.

Week 12 was bad for the favorites but good for the contenders.

Chelsie, Gray and Samantha all lost, while all four six-win teams (Nick, Geoff, Josh and Erik) won. That means we have an unprecedented situation with SEVEN teams within a game of first place in the standings with just two games to go. As I pointed out in the group text, that has never happened in the history of the league where the competition at the top is so flat this late in the year. In short, no one is running away from the pack.

Here’s a look at the full standings with teams currently in the playoffs in bold.

8-4: Chelsie
7-5: Gray, Nick, Samantha, Geoff, Josh, Erik
6-6: Beth Ann
5-7: Brandon, Greco
4-8: Jess
2-10: Alex

Of course, losses for favorites and wins for contenders is bad news for the long shots who would rather the favorites keep winning. That means Brandon and Greco are now both facing elimination—two games back of the final playoff spot with two games to go. But don’t sleep on Beth Ann who quietly picked up a win over Alex and is one game back with the league’s second-easiest remaining schedule (more on that below). Finally, despite the win, Jess was eliminated this week due to wins for all the six-win teams. With two games to go, the best she can do is get to six wins, herself. So pour one out for the former champ. 🫗

Power Rankings

Despite the loss, Samantha’s big scoring day pushes her into a tie for third, which is her highest ranking this season.

1. Gray
7-5, .712 TW%, 125.9 ppg

Hmm…Is this what Cooper Kupp-less Gray looks like? Duds for Dameon Pierce (4.6 points) and Jeff Wilson (12.2 points) plus relatively quiet days for Travis Kelce (15.7 points) and Tyreek Hill (15.0 points) meant a season-low 98.02 points for Gray. In fact, it was just the first time this season Gray has finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring, which is actually an incredible compliment to the caliber of his team so far this season. But is there any doubt this team would be playing much better with Cooper Kupp in place of Jakobi Meyers? Of course not. Since the Kupp injury, Gray is quietly average (seventh with a TW% of .485).

The loss, Gray’s fourth in the last five weeks 😬…has taken him from a 6-1 team with a 99.1% chance at a first-round bye to a 7-5 team with a not insubstantial 6.8% chance to miss the playoffs entirely. He needs just one more win to clinch but must face two of the other top-three teams in the Power Rankings—Samantha and Brandon. Even if he loses both games, his points lead gives him a 56% chance to sneak in with the tiebreaker. But what he doesn’t want is for all the other seven-win teams to get to eight, which would ultimately nullify any potential advantage he’s built up. With a 44% chance of claiming a first-round bye, no other team owner faces a wider range of potential outcomes than Gray over these last two weeks. It’s going to get real interesting…

2. Brandon
5-7, .614 TW%, 123.1 ppg

Normally, I’d shake this week’s loss off as just “one of those weeks.” After all, Derrick Henry fumbled away at least eight points. Tua Tagovailoa was so good he was benched halfway through the third quarter. And all those Zay Jones points should have gone to Christian Kirk and probably will next week. But man…this was a game I had to have. When you dig yourself an early 1-6 hole, there is very little margin for error. And with a loss in a very winnable game to Erik who scored just 113.86 points, that margin for error has gone from thin to nonexistent.

(Shifting back to third person…)

Thanks to all those 7-5 teams, Brandon—who is still second in the Power Rankings—now has to win out. And even then, he’s going to need help. If he can beat Josh and Gray in back-to-back weeks, the computer gives him a 31% chance of making the playoffs. But he would need help. Specifically, he needs to avoid a situation where there are six or more eight-win teams. That means rooting for two of Gray, Nick, Samantha, Geoff, Erik and Josh to lose out (in addition to Beth Ann who needs to lose at least one more game). That’s a lot of what ifs.

Weirdly, Brandon’s best hope might be to knock out Josh and Gray who are tied for the most difficult remaining schedule with games against Brandon and either Nick or Samantha. Brandon already owns the tiebreaker over Josh, and he trails Gray by just 33.58 points. Beat them both, outscore Gray and then pray for Nick and Samantha to finish the job. That’s the path.

T3. Nick (▲1)
7-5, .606 TW%, 122.6 ppg

Since he started 1-4, no team owner has been better than Nick. Over the last seven weeks, Nick ranks first in TW% (.675) and scoring (127.4 ppg). This week, he downed Chelsie thanks to 55.3 points from his RBs—Saquon Barkley, Rhamondre Stevenson and...no, not Travis Etienne but Rachaad White. Technically, Greco still leads the league in RB scoring by a fraction of a point, but since she traded away Josh Jacobs, I don't think there’s any RB room I’d rather have than Nick’s. When healthy, you’re probably looking at three RB1s with a fourth in White who is a rookie that is now emerging late in the season. As a result of the win, Nick’s playoff odds have rebounded to 90%. According to the Wall of Destiny, he needs just one more win to clinch against either Erik or Josh. And even if he loses both, the Wall of Destiny gives him a 26% chance to make the playoffs as a 7-7 team thanks to the fact that he currently ranks fourth in scoring. The real question is whether or not Nick can steal a first-round bye. If the playoffs started today, he’d be the three seed. But he has a real chance (27% to be exact) to surpass Gray in either wins or points and claim a top-two seed.

Chelsie, Gray, Geoff, Samantha and Nick can clinch with wins in Week 13.

T3. Samantha (▲2)
7-5, .606 TW%, 118.2 ppg

As I mentioned up top, Samantha is not too pleased with the fact that after she beat Chelsie in Week 10 to run her record to 7-3, I ran my mouth and proclaimed she probably just needed one more win over the next four weeks to clinch a spot in the playoffs. Easy, right? Well, since that time she’s 0-2 with losses of 131.7 and 141.32 points. Those are the second- and third-most points in a loss this season. Oof. That’s bad luck. But despite that, her dynamic duo of Davante Adams and Chris Godwin (the latter of whom looked the best he has all season with 29 points in Week 12) have catapulted her up the rankings into third place. That’s the highest she’s been since Week 14 of last year, the final Power Rankings of 2021. Even better, she’s built a lead in points over other contenders like Geoff, Josh and Erik and has even narrowed the gap between herself and the teams at the very top. At the risk of personal injury, I’ll say it again—Samantha just needs one more win over Gray this week or Geoff the next to likely clinch her spot in the playoffs. And like Nick, the first-round bye is not out of the question. The computer says she has a 14% chance.

5. Chelsie (▼2)
8-4, .591 TW%, 123.2 ppg

Make that three losses in a row for Chelsie who is now 8-4. A team that has been begging me to mark her playoff spot clinched for weeks, Chelsie has been sitting at the precipice since Week 9 when she was 8-1. But after three straight losses—this one to Nick thanks to average days for her WRs and a reversion to the mean for her RBs—you have to wonder, could Chelsie miss the playoffs? Answer: It’s extremely unlikely. And in fact, according to the computer, she’s a lock. That's because the worst-case scenario is a situation where seven teams end up with eight wins or more and Chelsie trails one of them in points. But because she’s currently second in points with at least 100 points between her and Geoff, Josh and Erik, the chance of her losing a seven-way tiebreaker is slim to none. For her to miss, she has to lose both of her remaining games to finish 8-6. Then you need Geoff and Erik to win out so they get to nine wins. Then you need Gray, Nick, Samantha and Josh to split their final two games in such a way that they all have eight wins. AND THEN, you need those four to also pass Chelsie in points, the most difficult of which would be Josh who has to make up about 80 points per week on Chelsie. I mean, it’s technically possible, which is why I haven’t given her the checkmark yet. But in reality, Chelsie will be in the playoffs. The real question is whether she can hold on to a top-two seed. Right now, she’s still the favorite at 94%. But the door is open.

6. Geoff (▲2)
7-5, .492 TW%, 114.6 ppg

Huge week for Geoff who not only upset Gray, but won the weekly prize too—his second in the last three weeks and his third on the year. In fact, Geoff is now tied with Chelsie for the most weekly prizes this season. That being said, with five finishes among the bottom-three in scoring in a given week, you never know exactly what you’re going to get with Geoff who is capable of going boom or bust. But this week, it was a definitive statement that Geoff is hungry for the playoffs. Case in point, his chances rose by 46.9%—the second-biggest one-week boost in playoff chances this season. That's because at 7-6, Geoff now needs just one more win against either Jess or Samantha to clinch. And not to pile on Jess, but this week is a prime opportunity to get that eighth win considering that Jess is 11th in the Power Rankings with only three games this season of more than 103 points. And even if Geoff doesn’t get that eighth win this season, the computer still likes his chances at a tiebreaker thanks to the fact that he has put some distance between himself and Josh and Erik, leading them by 32.84 and 50.38 points, respectively. In fact, according to the most recent Playoff Picture, he joins a top five that includes Chelsie, Gray, Nick and Samantha who all have above a 75% chance of making the playoffs. If we assume he’s in, that leaves just one spot for...

Erik and Josh are neck-and-neck for the sixth and final playoff spot.

7. Erik
7-5, .477 TW%, 110.4 ppg

...Erik or Josh. Call ’em the bubble boys, Erik and Josh are likely to be the last two team owners battling it our for the final playoff spot. With a six-way tie for second place in the standings, Erik and Josh are currently last in points among a swarm of 7-5 teams. Because Erik trails Josh by 17.54 points, Erik would technically miss the playoffs if they started today. But just last week, Erik had the points lead. And the computer actually prefers Erik at season’s end. That’s because he has a far easier schedule than Josh, including a regular season finale against Alex. The league’s 12th-place team owner, Alex has finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring in all but three weeks this season. And that includes five weeks in which he finished with the lowest score in a given week. If Erik can beat Alex in Week 14, the Wall of Destiny says he has a 76% chance of making the playoffs, even if he doesn’t beat Nick in Week 13. Of course, to feel safe, he should go ahead and win both games. Trailing all the other major contenders in points, he really has to hope for other teams to lose if he’s unable to get to nine wins. That or pass Josh or maybe Geoff in points. Both are within reach.

8. Josh (▲1)
7-5, .470 TW%, 111.9 ppg

Hello, Josh Jacobs! We've talked about Josh’s big week up top, including his roller coaster season. But this week had to be fun if nerve-wracking. Jacobs’ 48.3 points in a close Week 12 win were the eighth-most in league history, but the most ever by a player acquired in a trade, topping the 44.1 points scored by Leonard Fournette for Alex in Week 12 of last year. Remember, Fournette helped power Alex’s team to a historic comeback last season, including a run to the championship game. If Jacobs can keep up his incredible play, then there’s a good chance we’ll be seeing Josh in the playoffs despite all the setbacks this season. Like Erik, Josh needs two wins to clinch, but still has a good shot to make the playoffs with just one more, especially if he’s able to maintain his points lead over Erik. The Wall of Destiny gives him a healthy 94.3% chance to make the playoffs at 8-6. The problem is the schedule with games remaining against Brandon and Nick who are second and third in this week’s Power Rankings. If he loses both of those games, he’s not necessarily eliminated (the Wall of Destiny says 8.2%), but it gets much harder given his points situation. All that being said, Josh is surging right now (quietly fourth in TW% since Week 9) and in prime position to take advantage.

9. Greco (▼3)
5-7, .462 TW%, 111.4 ppg

That’s a tough loss for Greco in Week 12 who lost to Jess for the second time this season. Apparently, Greco brings out the best in Jess who is now averaging 133.3 ppg in two games against Greco and just 94.1 ppg in 10 games against everyone else. Lamar Jackson (23.06 points) played well in Week 12, but Greco certainly could have used Josh Jacobs’ huge day. Nevertheless, I did the math and the Jacobs deal did not cost Greco the win. If we assume she starts Jacobs in place of Antonio Gibson with Tom Brady returning to her lineup, she scores 135.04 points—still 1.16 points short of the 136.2 points she’d have needed to beat Jess. I’m sure it’s still painful, but maybe it hurts less to know the outcome wouldn’t have changed. Now at 5-7 with two games to go, Greco is facing some really long odds. Like Brandon, she needs to win out and hope for the tiebreaker. But unlike Brandon, she trails all the other contenders (except Josh) in points. With somewhat winnable games against Beth Ann (10th in this week’s Power Rankings) and Chelsie (the loser of three straight), she needs to win out, pile on the points and then hope for losses to the other contenders. If we re-run the simulations giving her the edge in points, she actually has a 4% chance of making the playoffs overall, including a 37% chance if we assume she wins out. But again, that’s contingent on the points. And right now, she’s currently in Erik/Josh territory when she needs to be closer to the top tier. The difference is about 140 points, which means making up 70 points per game over the last two weeks. Not easy. The one silver lining? Ja’Marr Chase is back. But is it too little, too late?

10. Beth Ann
6-6, .394 TW%, 105.1 ppg

Don’t sleep on Beth Ann who is officially this season’s dark horse. Since dropping to 4-6, Beth Ann has won two straight games against Nick and Alex and is now back at .500. Though she’s 10th in the Power Rankings and last in points among teams not yet eliminated, the sixth win she picked up this week gives her the leg up on sleepers like Brandon and Greco, points be damned. As a result, if she can win out in games against Greco and Jess (both bottom four in the Power Rankings), she has a 41% chance of sneaking into the playoffs as a low-scoring 8-6 team. Why not a lock? With so many other potential eight-win teams out there, she’d need at least two of Gray, Nick, Samantha, Geoff, Erik and Josh to lose out. But that’s her path. Win her final two games and then hope for those named above to lose. Especially with Kyler Murray playing better, D’Andre Swift potentially fully healthy and a Garrett Wilson breakout, it’s not unthinkable that Beth Ann could be back in the playoffs to defend her championship.

11. Jess (▲1)
4-8, .295 TW%, 100.6 ppg

RIP to Jess’s season. 🪦💀

Ironically, Jess had her best game of the year in Week 12...and got eliminated anyway. With 136.2 points scored against Greco, a season-high, Jess was eliminated through no fault of her own thanks to wins for all those seven-win teams. At 4-8, the best she can do is get to 6-8, and there’s just no path to the playoffs for a 6-8 team.

Gifted the second overall pick in this year’s draft, Jess took Jonathan Taylor second overall, a no-brainer who fell into her lap after Alex passed on him for Christian McCaffrey. But Taylor struggled all season, missing two games due to injury and scoring 20+ points just twice. With similar struggles for Deebo Samuel and Michael Pittman who failed to live up to their draft-day value, Jess has been averaging the fewest points of her career in the PPR era. Combine that with injuries to Dalton Schultz, Michael Thomas and Cordarrelle Patterson plus subpar QB production (Jess was not able to get top-12 value out of either Matthew Stafford or Derek Carr), and it all adds up to a tough season. The one bright spot, of course, was Breece Hall. The fourth-round pick looked like a league-winner with back-to-back 20-point games in Weeks 5-6 before a devastating, season-ending injury in Week 7. Jess’ team was never the same, losing five straight games to drop from 3-3 to 3-8, essentially ending her season. Now with a TW% of .295, Jess is looking at her worst season since 2012—the worst year of her career when she finished with a TW% of .259.

Of course, everyone is allowed a down year. And for Jess, it’s been awhile. In fact, this will be her first losing season since 2013, putting an end to an incredible run of eight straight years with a .500 or better record. That eight-year stretch also includes five playoff berths, three appearances in the title game and one championship. I’m sure Jess, who is still third in career wins with 86, will be back and better than ever next season. But until then, the Poop Bowl beckons. At 4-8, she’s only one game behind Brandon and Greco. Win out and she has a shot to avoid a bottom-two seed. There’s still plenty to play for.

12. Alex (▼1)
2-10, .280 TW%, 97.7 ppg

Already eliminated and guaranteed a bottom-two seed in the consolation ladder, Alex is currently playing for history and pride. Some key numbers:

Most Ls in a season, Alex: 10.5 (2014)
Most Ls in a season, ALL: 12 (Nick, 2020)
Worst TW% in a season, Alex: .413 (2016)
Worst TW% in a season, ALL: .203 (Nick, 2020)
Fewest points in PPR era, Alex: 116.4 (2019)
Fewest points in PPR era, ALL: 93.5 (Nick, 2020)

As you can see, Alex is flirting with the worst season of his career. One more loss and he has his worst-ever record, worsting the year he finished 2-10-1. And given his current TW% and scoring, this should be the worst year of his career by both of those metrics too. Luckily, his TW% is already good enough that he’s not in danger of stealing the Worst’s Worst title from Nick. But if he wants to avoid having the lowest-scoring team of the PPR era, he needs to score at least 137 more points over the last two games. Not only that, but I know our commish probably loves to play spoiler. With games against Chelsie and Erik, he could help keep Chelsie from a first-round bye and knock Erik out of the playoffs. Now there’s something to play for!

Looking Ahead to Week 13

The week’s matchups include:

Chelsie (8-4) vs. Alex (2-10)
Gray (7-5) vs. Samantha (7-5)
Nick (7-5) vs. Erik (7-5)
Josh (7-5) vs. Brandon (5-7)
Geoff (7-5) vs. Jess (4-8)
Beth Ann (6-6) vs. Greco (5-7)

Obviously, they’re all big given how close things are. But Nick vs. Erik is especially compelling considering it will clinch a spot in the playoffs for the winner. I’m also locked in on the matchup between Beth Ann and Greco. Loser will be eliminated. And finally, my game, of course. If I were to lose to Josh, I would also be eliminated.

That’s it! Sorry this one came out so late, but better late than never. See you next week!