Week 4 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Apparently, Josh hasn’t been sleeping well.

“Had a nightmare last night about being a relatively lucky 3-1 and losing my second rd pick. Good record to have but no hot waiver wire picks for the first 4-5 weeks and injuries mounting up that also include Renfrow, Jakobi, Burks.”

Yikes…that is scary. Luckily, it was all just a dream, right? RiGhT?! Unfortunately, there’s nothing we can do about the Javonte Williams injury. (More on that in Josh’s writeup below.) But we can look at historical precedent to see how often 3-1 dream starts, like Josh’s, have turned into nightmares.

To do that, let’s bring back one of my favorite charts.

3-1 teams like Josh’s go on to make the playoffs 74% of the time.

Updated with another year’s worth of information, the chart above shows the historic probability of making the playoffs at every possible record. To read the chart, find the square that corresponds to your wins on the vertical axis and your losses on the horizontal axis. The number in the middle of the square is the percentage of teams in league history with that record who made the playoffs (or would have with the current six-team playoff settings).

As you can see:

4-0 teams have made the playoffs 83% of the time.
3-1 teams have made the playoffs 74% of the time.
2-2 teams have made the playoffs 45% of the time.
1-3 teams have made the playoffs 35% of the time.
And 0-4 have made the playoffs 0% of the time.

That’s good news for Josh. Of the 31 teams that have started 3-1, 23 have gone to make the playoffs with just eight falling short. Of those eight, the most recent example is ironically also Josh who started 3-1 last year but finished 7-7 and came up just short.

Even 4-0 teams are not immune to the nightmare scenario. While there are none this year, Whitney became the first of just six 4-0 teams to miss the playoffs last year. Meanwhile, no 0-4 team has ever rebounded, which is why it’s all-the-more-important that Alex picked up his first win this week to avoid starting 0-4. At 1-3, he has much better odds (35%).

Of course, it’s still super early. But it’s fun to look ahead. So feel free to bookmark this chart for later in the season when you’re trying to determine if you’re playoff bound or totally screwed. Just try not to lose sleep over it.

Scoreboard

Alex is the fourth team owner in a row to get his first win and first weekly prize in the same week.

Alex made Coolio proud, bouncing back from an 0-3 start to defeat Josh and win his first game and first weekly prize of the season. On the flip side, Josh gets his first loss, though the loss of Javonte Williams is likely the biggest one for any team owner this season.

But Josh wasn’t alone. Also undefeated entering the day, Chelsie lost a tight one to Beth Ann. As a result, she picks up the first loss of her Worst League career. (Don’t worry, Chelsie. There will be many more.) She and Josh are joined at 3-1 by Gray who soundly defeated Nick and is now tied for first place in the standings with Josh and Chelsie.

Finally, Geoff, Greco and Samantha all picked up wins, joining Erik and Beth Ann at 2-2. That leaves Brandon, Nick and the aforementioned Alex as the only team owners at 1-3.

Power Rankings

1. Gray

In four weeks, Gray has gotten just 30.2 points from QBs…total. That’s it. Through some combination of Trey Lance, Jared Goff and Marcus Mariota, he’s averaging just 7.6 ppg. And yet, his team has clearly separated itself from the rest of the pack, including back-to-back weeks as the runner-up for the weekly prize. In fact, with a true record of 36-8, it’s Gray’s second-best start to a season through four games in his career. The only time better? You have to go back to 2011 when he started an unfathomable 44-0, meaning he somehow led the league in scoring in each of the first four weeks. This team has not been that dominant. But if he can figure out the situation at QB (and Jared Goff is QB5 on the season), watch out.

P.S. I see you, Gabe Davis. 👀

2. Brandon

One of these things is not like the other. Of the four teams at the top of the Power Rankings, three are 3-1 and the other is Brandon. With a close loss to Geoff in Week 4 following some late-game heroics from Tyler Higbee, Brandon is now 1-3 for the third year in a row. 😖 But unlike last year when Brandon was 10th at this time, the numbers suggest this is a much better team. Brandon is second in TW% (.659) and second in scoring (131.8 ppg) with three straight weeks of above-average scoring, two close losses and his one win coming against the top team in the Power Rankings. If I’m Brandon (and I am), I’m not panicking. Two years ago, Brandon also started 1-3. And we all know how that season ended.

3. Chelsie

Chelsie’s scores so far this season: 148.3, 137.8, 110.58 and 92.36. Uh oh…we’re headed in the wrong direction! 🙅‍♂️ Since exploding onto the scene, she’s seen a dip in production, especially from her RBs. Among players drafted in the first round who have played all four games, Najee Harris (RB26) has been the most disappointing without a single game of 14 points or more. In fact, Chelsie ranks 11th in scoring at RB. And while the strength of this team is certainly WR, A.J. Brown, Diontae Johnson and Jaylen Waddle have been relatively quiet since Brown’s 25-point Week 1 or Waddle’s 40-point Week 2. Still, I’m not even a little worried, especially because reinforcements are coming in the form of DeAndre Hopkins in just three weeks. And if not for a late TD from Leonard Fournette on Sunday night, Chelsie could be 4-0 right now.

4. Josh

Josh’s luck finally ran out as he was crushed by Alex in Week 4 by 59.22 points, the second-biggest margin of defeat this season. But the real crushing blow was the loss of Javonte Williams to a season-ending ACL (and LCL) injury to his right knee. Devastating. 😭 The loss of Josh’s second-round pick (20th overall) is clearly the biggest injury so far this season with honorable mentions for Elijah Mitchell, Trey Lance, Dak Prescott and Keenan Allen. But, at least so far, this was THE BIG ONE. And now, Josh will be left scrambling. He’s already last in the league in scoring at RB (20.8 ppg). With no Javonte, that leaves Cam Akers (RB53) and Devin Singletary (RB23). With Darnell Mooney as the highest drafted player in the league to already be dropped (drafted 53rd overall), Josh’s team is essentially down two of his first five picks with 10 games to go. At least for now, this team is Lamar Jackson, Justin Jefferson and a hope and a prayer. It could be worse. At least, he’s 3-1.

5. Erik

Tough loss for Erik who SHOULD have won this game if only he hadn’t benched Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs RB has been magical this season, or at least the recipient of magic from Patrick Mahomes, currently ranking as RB4 behind only Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler. Of course, prior to Week 4, Edwards-Helaire was somehow accomplishing this on just 7-8 carries a game. So Erik benched him going against a tough Buccaneers defense in favor of DeVonta Smith, who himself was coming off a 30-point game. Totally reasonable. So what happened? Smith scores just 4.7 points on Sunday while Edwards-Helaire gets 19 carries en route to 22.4 points. That’s a difference of 17.7 points. The final margin? 16.0 points. Had he started Edwards-Helaire, Erik would have beaten Greco by 1.7 points. Rough. But that’s fantasy. Side note: I’m going to bet Edwards-Helaire makes it into Erik’s lineup in Week 5. Just a hunch.

6. Geoff

Big win for Geoff this week playing without Amon-Ra St. Brown who is somehow still WR7 on the season despite only playing in three of four games. With St. Brown sidelined with an ankle injury, Austin Ekeler stepped up big time, scoring a season-high 34.9 points, vaulting him to RB3 on the year. That’s a welcome sign for Geoff who is in the bottom half of the league in RB scoring but third at WR and first in receptions (32.8 per game). In fact, Geoff is the only team owner with four top-25 WRs on the roster in St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb (WR13), DK Metcalf (WR21) and Amari Cooper (WR24). That depth will come in handy as St. Brown plus impressive rookie Jahan Dotson may miss more time due to injury. Given all of that, plus the lingering Dak Prescott injury (Geoff’s most glaring weakness), this team has got to be thrilled with a 2-2 record. Geoff’s stock is trending up. 📈 (Did I mention J.K. Dobbins?)

7. Nick

After starting 1-3, including a season-low 104.38 points in Week 4, Nick is officially trying to shake things up. Cue the group chat:

“If anyone wants Saquon, looking to trade for best offer. Need everything but especially wide receivers. Will add Bateman to the trade on my end as well.”

Putting this season’s early RB1 on the trade block? That is certainly cause for three red alert emojis (🚨🚨🚨) because Saquon Barkley has been awesome. Taken ninth overall, Barkley is one of only two RBs averaging over 20.0 ppg. He, along with Stefon Diggs (WR2), have been the most consistent parts of Nick’s roster. Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts (TE18), Travis Etienne (RB40), and Allen Robinson (WR73) have all disappointed. Like Josh’s fifth-rounder Darnell Mooney, Robinson was dropped this week by Nick. Now, one of last-season’s most active team owner’s on the trade market is back at it again. Remember, Nick traded away Christian McCaffrey last year. Ranking in the middle of the pack in many metrics, including TW% (.500), points (115.2 ppg) and scoring at QB (7th), RB (6th) and WR (5th), Nick is not afraid to mix things up.

8. Samantha

Because he was playing in the early game in London, Alvin Kamara’s inactive designation took many team owners by surprise in Week 4, including Samantha. The only thing more surprising? T.J. Hockenson’s performance. With no Amon-Ra St. Brown in the lineup, the Lions TE took advantage, leading all fantasy players in points in Week 4 with 39.9 points. That’s the fourth-most points by a TE in Worst League history and the most since Mark Andrews scored 41.7 points in Week 5 of last year. That was just the muscle Samatha needed to overcome a lackluster day for both her and her opponent, Jess. Now, after an 0-2 start, she’s back at .500, which is classic Samantha. Best of all, Chris Godwin had 10 targets in his first game back with the Buccaneers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he returns to Samantha’s lineup too.

9. Greco

Big week for Greco who had easily her best performance of the season. With 137.4 points scored in a victory over Erik, Greco finished in the top half of the league in scoring for the first time this season. Most encouraging was Tom Brady who (with more time to focus on football) had his best game of the season, scoring 25.4 points with his receivers back in the lineup. Even better, 16th-rounder (yes, 16th!) Jamaal Williams (23.9 points) looked excellent in D’Andre Swift’s absence and is now RB6 on the season. And don’t forget about Josh Jacobs (34.5 points) on the bench. Turns out Greco may not need David Montgomery (injured) or Antonio Gibson (acquired in a trade with Gray for Gabe Davis), because she is currently the only team owner with THREE top-10 RBs in Nick Chubb, Williams and Jacobs. This team is flush with RBs. And it’s got Ja’Marr Chase. I think the arrow on this team is pointing way up.

10. Beth Ann

Whew…that was a close one. 😰 Thanks to a late Leonard Fournette TD, Beth Ann snuck away with a win in a low-scoring game against Chelsie. In fact, her 95.88 points scored were the second-fewest in a win this season. As predicted, no D’Andre Swift was a problem with fill-in Tony Pollard scoring just 1.8 points in Week 4. And yes, I’m officially worried about this team. Beth Ann is 10th in TW% (.341), 11th in scoring (103.7 ppg), ninth in RB scoring and 11th at WR. With Swift sidelined until at least Week 7, this team could continue to struggle. Luckily, Beth Ann is 2-2. But it has not gone unnoticed that Beth Ann has had three straight games of under 100 points, which is the first time she’s finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring in three consecutive weeks since Weeks 10-12 of 2019, her debut season. That year she finished 4-8-1, the worst year of her career.

11. Jess

Like Beth Ann, Jess has struggled since Week 1 with fewer and fewer points each week. This week, she totaled just 84.22 points and was the lowest-scoring team of Week 4—the first time she’s had the lowest-scoring team in a given week since Week 2 of 2020. Once again, she was faced with some challenging start/sit decisions with benchwarmers Miles Sanders (29.6 points) and Gerald Everett (17.1 points) outscoring starters Cordarrelle Patterson (9.8 points) and Dalton Schultz (0.0 points) by 36.9 points. Needless to say, that would have been enough for the win. The good (or bad) news is these decisions may get easier. But only because the injuries are mounting for Jess. In Week 5, both Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Patterson (knee) are expected to be inactive with the latter expected to miss at least four weeks. Now, can she hold on until they get back?

12. Alex

The Broncos may be terrible. And his favorite team may have lost its promising young RB. But things are looking up for Alex, the fantasy football team owner. Yes, he’s still last in these Power Rankings. But after scoring 153.88 points in Week 4 and claiming his first weekly prize since Week 9 of 2020, Alex has closed the gap on the teams immediately ahead of him. He’s now no longer historically terrible and instead is just run-of-the-mill bad. All that being said, there’s a lot to like about the direction of this team. Mike Evans is back and scored 30.3 points in Week 4. Rashaad Penny (28.7 points) looked like a monster against the Lions. And the loss of Javonte Williams means Melvin Gordon’s stock is rising. When (if?) Keenan Allen finally returns, there’s no reason Alex can’t continue to climb the rankings.

Looking Ahead to Week 5

Can Alex keep it going? If he hopes to continue his comeback from an 0-3 start, he’ll have to keep it going against the league’s top ranked team in Gray. Chelsie and Josh, both 3-1, will take on real challenges from Jess and Greco. Erik and Beth Ann face off. And finally, Nick and Brandon are just hoping to get a second win with games against Geoff and Samantha, respectively. Yes, that means Brandon and Samantha are facing off this week. Loser does the dishes.

Good luck to everyone in Week 5, the last week before bye weeks start!