Week 5 Power Rankings
We’re five weeks in, officially more than a third of the way through the regular season, which means it’s time to turn our attention, for the first time this season, to the playoffs. That’s right. That hallowed place where fantasy fortunes are made, champions are crowned and Josh inevitably loses (a league-worst 1-6 record for his career). Hey, at least he gets there.
I’m a week late, but around this time every year, we start to look at the Playoff Picture—a table that shows the results of thousands of simulations, which play out the results of the regular season to determine who has the best odds of making the playoffs. So without further ado, here’s a look at this year’s first Playoff Picture.
The first playoff projections of the year predict Gray, Chelsie, Geoff, Brandon, Greco and Samantha.
For the newbie of the group, Chelsie, the Playoff Picture is my weekly rundown of your playoff chances based on your current record, TW% and remaining schedule. If you’re interested (and maybe you like to nerd out on spreadsheets like me), I’ve got a detailed description of the methodology in this post from three years ago. It explains everything about how we calculate your probability of winning a game based on your and your opponent’s TW% and then how we use those probabilities to simulate the season 10,000 times.
But the end result is the chart above, which shows your projected record (the average number of wins and losses in 10,000 simulations), your chances of winning the division (the percentage of times your team won the division in those 10,000 simulations) and finally your chances of making the playoffs (the percentage of times your team made the playoffs in 10,000 simulations).
(Oh yeah, those little numbers above the name of each team owner are the current seed numbers for each team if the playoffs were to start today.)
So…what can we glean from these early numbers? Some quick observations:
The computer really likes Gray who made the playoffs 99.99% of the time because of his sizable lead in TW% and points. Only once (simulation no. 3,093) did he miss.
Chelsie (with her 4-1 record) and Geoff (3-2 but fourth in TW% and points) are also favorites to make the playoffs, each with a greater than 85% chance.
Despite his 1-4 record, the computer still likes Brandon to make the playoffs, but with fewer wins than Greco or Samantha. His most likely final record is 7-7, which is when the points tiebreaker (currently second) would kick in.
Greco and Samantha round out the computer’s final picks for the playoffs. Note again that Samantha is predicted for more wins because she has a higher TW%, but Greco has better odds overall because of the points tiebreaker.
If the playoffs started today, Josh would be in as the five seed. But he’s just on the outside of the Playoff Picture in Week 5 and is a toss-up to make it (49%), especially considering he has the toughest remaining schedule with games against all six of the top-six teams in the Power Rankings.
Nick (1-4), Erik (2-3) and Beth Ann (3-2) all have varying records but about the same odds of making the playoffs (23-28%). Of this group, Nick has the worst record but the best TW% and vice versa for Beth Ann. Erik’s in the middle.
Finally, Jess and Alex are our current long shots with less than a 5% chance. Both are bottom two in this week’s Power Rankings with losing records. But there’s still a lot of fantasy football to play.
How accurate are these numbers? Since playoff expansion to six teams in 2018, the Week 5 Playoff Picture has correctly predicted five out of six playoffs teams in three out of the last four years. Not bad. But that still leaves room for one long shot—Samantha in 2018-19 and Alex in 2021. And in 2020, the computer only identified three out of six playoff teams, missing on eventual champion, Brandon, among others.
Remember, the Playoff Picture is powered by your TW%. So if your team improves (because of the return of injured players, underperforming players regressing to the mean or any other reason), your odds improve as well. And the computer uses the current point totals to predict playoff tiebreakers. So if move up in total points, you’ll move up in the Playoff Picture. All of which is to say, I think these numbers are little extreme on both ends. It’s unlikely Gray’s team continues to be this good or Alex’s team continues to be this bad. But it does give us a general sense of where teams stand with nine weeks to go.
And yes, there are still nine weeks left in the fantasy football regular season. Plenty of time for more twists and turns to come.
Scoreboard
Gray claims his first weekly prize of the season as he and Chelsie improve to 4-1.
After two straight weeks of runner-up finishes, Gray finally nabbed his first weekly prize of the season with a season high of 149.96 points in a win over Alex. And he looked dominant in doing so. The team owner who went near-zero RB got 40.5 points combined from Dameon Pierce and Jeff Wilson Jr. That production, combined with the usual buffet of points from Cooper Kupp (25.9), Tyreek Hill (13.0) and Travis Kelce (33.5), was more than enough to make up for continued lackluster QB play. More on that below.
This week also featured two nail-biters decided by 1.0 point or less. Samantha defeated Brandon thanks to 43.4 points on Monday night from Daniel Carlson and Davante Adams, the latter of whom delivered the fatal blow on a 48-yard TD catch with 4:27 left in the game. Quite the comeback! Meanwhile, Geoff defeated Nick by just 0.58 points as Nick’s comeback bid on Sunday Night Football came up just short. After Joe Burrow’s rushing TD with 1:58 left in the game, Nick needed just one reception from Devin Duvernay on the Ravens’ final drive, but, alas, it never came. (Me and Adam Thielen know that feeling all too well.)
As for the rest of the league, Greco was neck-and-neck with Gray for the weekly prize, coming up just short, herself, while easily defeating Josh in the process. And both Beth Ann and Chelsie picked up low-scoring victories over Erik and Jess, respectively.
Power Rankings
Gray continues to distance himself from the pack through the first five weeks.
1. Gray
4-1, .855 TW%, 136.7 ppg
Josh Allen in Week 5: 35.16 points
Gray’s QBs in Weeks 1-5: 36.06 points
How dominant is Gray’s team so far this year? He could have literally benched his QB in every game this season and would still be 4-1. And I had to double check the box scores to make sure he is, in fact, starting a QB in his lineup each week. In 11 years, no team owner has ever averaged fewer than 10.9 ppg from QB. Gray is getting 7.2 ppg. That number almost certainly has to improve. Look, I’m not saying he’ll ever be among the league leaders this season at QB, but if he gets anywhere close to the average for QBs (20.3 ppg since we switched to PPR and decimal scoring), this already dominant team could go full supernova, even with this week’s injury to Damien Harris. It’s wayyyyyy too early to be having this discussion, but…best ever is on the table.
2. Brandon
1-4, .673 TW%, 129.4 ppg
Speaking of history, Brandon is also rewriting the record books. But not in a good way. With a loss in Week 5 by just 1.0 point despite above-average scoring, he now has three losses on the season by a combined 7.42 points. It’s early. And there’s sill plenty of time for his luck to balance out. But as it stands now, this team—which by TW% should be 3-2 or even 4-1 but is instead 1-4—is on pace to become the unluckiest team in league history. Remember Josh’s ill-fated squad from 2020? He actually finished first in the final Power Rankings with a TW% of .650 but missed the playoffs at 6-7, the first team to do so. Over a full season that year, Josh lost two games in which he finished in the top half of the league in scoring. Through just five games, Brandon has already lost three such games. This team is second in TW% (.673) and points (129.4 ppg), so I’m still not panicking. But the margin for error is now razor thin.
3. Chelsie
4-1, .564 TW%, 118.9 ppg
Patrick Mahomes saved Chelsie’s bacon on Monday night, outscoring Derek Carr, her opponent’s QB, by 12.54 points, just enough to give her the 7.14-point victory over Jess. She hasn’t looked great either of the last two weeks, averaging 98.9 ppg. The RBs remain the biggest concern—just 10.0 points combined from Najee Harris (RB27) and AJ Dillon (RB33). Even her stud WR group ranks 11th in scoring these last two weeks. But Mahomes, a good day for Dallas Goedert (17.5 points) and a little luck are papering over any deficiencies. As a result, she’s 4-1 and still very high in these ranks thanks to a terrific three-game start. Of the 18 previous teams to start 4-1, 14 made the playoffs (or would have with a six-team playoff). That plus her third-place ranking are all good signs, making me think she won’t repeat Whitney’s nosedive from 4-1 to 7-7 last season. A bounce-back game is coming.
4. Geoff (▲2)
3-2, .545 TW%, 118.0 ppg
Another close one! 😅 Geoff narrowly defeated Nick by a score of 118.66 to 118.08—a difference of just 0.58 points. That’s the second-closest win in league history and just the second to come by less than a point. (Josh’s 0.04-point win over Brandon in Week 2 is still the closest.) But I think it’s time to show Geoff some real love. Since he renamed his team “Just hope we can win a game” following an 80.06-point Week 1, Geoff is 3-1. And over that four-game stretch, he actually has the third-best team in the league by TW% (.682) and points (127.5 ppg), trailing only Gray and Brandon. Don’t look now, but Austin Ekeler is RB1 on the season following his second game of 30+ points. That quartet of top-25 WRs we mentioned last week are now all top-20 WRs. (Salute to DK Metcalf looking like a solid weekly contributor even with Geno Smith.) And there’s depth with backups at essentially every position (including two top-eight TEs). This team is really good and will only get better when Dak Prescott returns.
T5. Nick (▲2)
1-4, .509 TW%, 115.8 ppg
One man’s fantasy fortune is another man’s misery. And the team owner at the bitter end of a 0.58-point loss this week was Nick. That’s especially painful considering his free agent pickup at TE, Tyler Conklin, scored 0 points with Kyle Pitts out. (I feel you, Nick. I feel you. 🫂) Like Brandon, Nick has also been the victim of some bad luck this season with three losses in which he finished in the top half of the league in scoring. With a TW% hovering around .500, this team should be 2-3 or 3-2. Instead, he’s 1-4. In league history, just four of 16 teams to start 1-4 would have made a six-team playoff, though it should be noted none have technically ever done it since all four of those would-be comebacks happened before playoff expansion. Notably, Nick in 2016 was one of them. That being said, this week’s injury to Damien Harris is good news for Rhamondre Stevenson owners, like Nick. Brian Robinson made his first start of the season. And maybe, just maybe, waiver wire pickup Taysom Hill can solve those TE woes for Nick who ranks 11th in TE scoring. Remember: One. Week. At. A. Time. 🧘♂️
T5. Samantha (▲3)
3-2, .509 TW%, 111.3 ppg
From 0-2 to 3-2 for the third straight year. Is there anyone who can dig themselves out of an early hole better than Samantha? Call her The Gopher! 🦡 (Yes, I think that’s technically a badger emoji.) In Week 5, Samantha had her best game yet, scoring a season-high 121.06 points. Over her three-game winning streak, she’s third in the league in TW% (.636) and fifth in points (113.8 ppg). Alvin Kamara (23.4 points) finally delivered on preseason expectations with his first game of 20+ points. He along with Jalen Hurts (QB3) and Davante Adams (WR5) form the core of this well-rounded team. Ezekiel Elliott (RB37) and DJ Moore (WR47) have disappointed. But with Chris Godwin back, I feel a breakout game is coming. Already up to fifth in these rankings, there’s no reason she can’t continue to climb. Do gophers or badgers climb? Sloths do and they are notoriously slow starters. I’m sure Samantha, who loves her animal facts, will let us know which is the most appropriate spirit animal for her team.
T7. Greco (▲2)
3-2, .473 TW%, 116.1 ppg
⚠️ WARNING! ⚠️ WARNING! ⚠️ This team is a rocket ship headed to the moon. Following 137.4 points in Week 4, Greco kicked it into overdrive, nearly winning the weekly prize in Week 5 while scoring 149.64 points in a win over Josh. Yes, Nick Chubb (25.4 points) continues to do Nick Chubb things. But Josh Jacobs (30.3 points) is suddenly the second engine on this spaceship. Both are currently top-4 RBs. As a result, Greco has nearly overtaken Erik for best RB room in the league. And with David Montgomery back and healthy (18.2 points on the bench in Week 5), I wouldn’t be surprised if she soon laps the field. Case in point, she’s averaging 57.6 ppg from RBs over the last two weeks. League average is 31.8 ppg. And, oh yeah, we haven’t even talked about first-round pick and team namesake Ja’Marr Chase yet, who has been solid (WR13) but is clearly biding his time. With two other top-10 WRs (yes, Mike Williams and Tyler Lockett currently qualify), this team hardly misses Gabe Davis. She’s tied for seventh now. But I’m saying T-minus three weeks until she’s in the top three of these rankings. 🔮🚀🌕
T7. Josh (▼3)
3-2, .473 TW%, 113.6 ppg
After three straight nail-biting wins by 7.02 points or less, Josh has been absolutely THUMPED these last couple of weeks, losing by nearly 60 points both times. And the reason? A team that was already last in RB scoring through the first three weeks has seen its production drop through the floor. From 22.2 ppg in Weeks 1-3 to 12.8 ppg since. Obviously, the Javonte Williams injury is the missing piece. But neither Cam Akers (RB57) nor Devin Singletary (RB25) have been able to stop the bleeding. Though they accounted for nearly half of his scoring in Week 5, Lamar Jackson and Justin Jefferson can’t do it all. But…help is on the way. Jakobi Meyers returned from injury in Week 5, scoring 24.1 points. And one week after losing Javonte Williams, Josh has gained a new starting RB in rookie Kenneth Walker, following the season-ending injury to Rashaad Penny. All in all, things are actually kinda looking up for Josh. Hope is not lost yet.
T7. Erik (▼2)
2-3, .473 TW%, 113.3 ppg
Erik had his worst game yet, falling under the century mark for the first time this season in a loss to Beth Ann. But much of that was injury-related as both Tee Higgins (ankle) and Darren Waller (hamstring) exited their games early without scoring a single point. Playing 7-on-9, Erik still made it respectable and would have come within two points of a win had he started DeVonta Smith (18.7 points) instead of Clyde Edwards-Helaire (6.5 points), an increasingly maddening decision. But this is a solid team with plenty of talent that, in my opinion, has yet to show its ceiling. Erik has yet to score more than 126.86 points in a game (his Week 1 total) or finish among the top-four scorers in a given week. Despite the injuries, I believe big games are on the horizon.
10. Beth Ann
3-2, .364 TW%, 104.4 ppg
Another week, another fortunate victory for Beth Ann. This is Beth Ann’s second-straight win despite finishing in the bottom half of the league in scoring. Her 107.2 points in Week 5 (more than a third of which were provided by Leonard Fournette) were just enough to defeat Erik who was down two players. Since her terrific Week 1, Beth Ann has been the second-worst team in the league, ranking 11th in TW% (.227) and points (96.4 ppg) and last in scoring at WR (27.2 ppg). In fact, Beth Ann doesn’t have a single top-25 WR on the roster—the only team owner without one. But…if Beth Ann can survive the next week, D’Andre Swift should hopefully return in Week 7. Having already gone 2-0 without him, she’s still in good shape for the stretch run and can cross her fingers that Brandin Cooks and Terry McLaurin start playing up to their draft-day value.
11. Jess
2-3, .309 TW%, 101.5 ppg
Without Jonathan Tayor (ankle), Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) or Michael Thomas (foot), things have gotten desperate for Jess. How desperate? This week, she started two TEs—just the fourth time a team owner has done so since our rule change to allow TEs in the flex. Typically, that doesn’t go well for the team with two TEs, which have now lost in three out of four occasions. For Jess, it didn’t help that one of those TEs, Dalton Schultz, suffered an injury of his own and had to leave the game early, scoring 0 points. But on the bright side, Breece Hall broke out with a big game (27.7 points) and Taylor could make a return to the lineup in Week 6. They could form a powerful trio of RBs along with Miles Sanders (currently RB12) that could power Jess back up the rankings. And that doesn’t even account for Patterson’s eventual return. Yes, things have been rough recently, but fortunes change quickly in fantasy.
12. Alex
1-4, .255 TW%, 101.7 ppg
Alex can’t catch a break. One week after gaining a starting RB in Melvin Gordon (following the Week 4 injury to Javonte Williams), Alex lost eighth-round pick Rashaad Penny to a season-ending injury just as he was breaking out. The number of games missed by players Alex drafted is now 14 through five weeks—Mike Evans (one), Keenan Allen (four), George Kittle (two), Julio Jones (three) and Wan’Dale Robinson (four). Jones and Robinson were both lottery picks, but Evans, Allen and Kittle are key contributors. And it seemed Penny was emerging as well. As a result, one week after winning the weekly prize, Alex scored just 93.16 points in a loss to Gray—his fourth week this season finishing 10th or worst in scoring. This team probably still relies on too many Broncos for my taste, but I’m confident a lineup of Christian McCaffrey (currently RB5), Melvin Gordon, Mike Evans, Courtland Sutton and Keenan Allen (if his hamstring ever heals) can be more than a little Dangeruss.
Looking Ahead to Week 6
Big Week 6 on tap and I’m most excited to see the matchup of two surging team owners—Gray vs. Greco. It’s this season’s most dominant team vs. one of the league’s hottest over the last couple weeks. Since Week 4, they are the league’s best with both teams averaging over 140 ppg. This one’s going to be a track meet even with Dameon Pierce (Gray) and Josh Jacobs (Greco) on bye. Plus, these two have lots of history. Gray is 10-7 all time against Greco, including the playoffs. But Greco has twice eliminated Gray from the playoffs or playoff contention, spoiling his playoff hopes in Week 13 of 2018, robbing him of a first-round bye in Week 13 of 2020, and then knocking him out of the first round altogether the following week. This one won’t have that late-season drama, but it will have playoff implications nonetheless.
Chelsie, the other 4-1 team owner, will hope to keep pace with Gray in the standings while facing off against Erik. And Josh and Beth Ann will do battle, both 3-2, but with records that belie their true nature. Beth Ann has been lucky these last couple weeks to keep winning despite subpar production. Meanwhile, Josh has failed to hit 100 points since the Javonte Williams injury. This week we’ll get our first real look at Kenneth Walker to see if he can turn Josh’s season around. Though, let’s be honest, I would kill to be 3-2 right now.
As for the rest of the league, where my 1-4 team owners at? 🙋♂️🙋♂️🙋♂️ Brandon, Nick and Alex are all desperate for wins at this point in games against Jess, Samantha and Geoff. I don’t know about those other guys, but I am certainly sweating it, especially with my first-round pick Derrick Henry on bye. Not ideal timing, King Henry!
That’s it for this week. Hope everyone is having a good October as hopefully temperatures are starting to fall but the heat is only picking up in fantasy. Good luck to everyone in Week 6!
