Week 6 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Oct 23

Oct 23 Week 6 Power Rankings

Be sure to check your kids’ Halloween candy this year. My fantasy football league found Gray’s stacked roster inside a Snickers bar. 😱

Yes, it’s high time we talked about Gray.

The league’s all-time winningest team owner and the first to 100 wins is off to one of the best starts of his career. He’s now 5-1 overall with a TW% of .864, which equates to a true record of 57-9. That’s a better start than either of his championship teams in 2013 (44-22 true record through six weeks) or 2019 (39-27). And it’s even better than his GOAT squad from 2016 (50-15-1). For those who don’t know, that’s the greatest (regular season) team in league history, which finished with a TW% of .808 but was upset during the playoffs.

This team is better than all those teams. In fact, Gray is off to the second-best start in league history. The only one better? You have to go back to Gray’s very first season when he started 6-0 and won five of the first six weekly prizes. His true record was an impossible 64-2 (.970 TW%). Back then, most of us didn’t know what we were doing. And Gray took advantage. Let’s be honest, he was basically stealing candy from babies. We were the babies.

But now, 11 years later, he’s doing it all over again, this time to grown-ass babies. He hasn’t won five out of six weekly prizes. But he has won the weekly prize or finished as the runner-up in each of the last four weeks. It’s the eighth-best four-week stretch of games in league history. And of the other seven, six belong to Gray (from 2011, 2015 and 2016). And the other belongs to Alex—his Thanos world-destroyers from 2018.

In short, Gray’s near-zero RB strategy has worked. Here’s an excerpt of what we wrote in the draft observations column six weeks ago:

Gray didn’t wait until the sixth round to draft a RB—the traditional definition for zero RB—but he came close, selecting Elijah Mitchell with the third-to-last pick of the fourth round, 46th overall. That’s the longest a team has waited to draft a RB in five years.
…As for the picks themselves, Gray nabbed three elite pass-catchers in Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. (Zero RB has its perks.) Then spent the rest of the draft chasing RBs, including six of his next nine picks.
…If Gray can get a couple of these RBs to pop, not to mention sexy, second-year QB Trey Lance, then Gray could be zagging his way back to the playoffs for a fourth-straight year.

Most of that has pretty much manifested. Dameon Pierece (RB15) definitely “popped” (21.4 ppg since Week 3), validating his reach of nearly four rounds based on ADP. And the rest of the RBs have been serviceable, notably Jeff Wilson, Darrell Henderson and Damien Harris plus Antonio Gibson for a time before he was traded away for Gabe Davis. No, Trey Lance didn’t work out. Both he and Elijah Mitchell have succumbed to injury. But none of that really matters when Kupp, Kelce and Hill are all averaging 20+ ppg. More on their impact in Gray’s blurb below.

Looking ahead, Gray was thrown yet another curveball this week when Christian McCaffrey’s trade to San Francisco likely made Jeff Wilson and Elijah Mitchell obsolete. But it may not matter. Gray is on pace for history even if he regresses a little bit. There’s still a long way to go, but if Gray can go 68-20 (by true record) down the stretch, he’ll break his own record for best TW% in league history.

Spooky season, indeed. 👻

Scoreboard

Nick became the sixth different team owner to win a weekly prize this year.

Gray and Chelsie move to 5-1 with wins over Greco and Erik, respectively. In league history, there have been 12 teams that started 5-1. Unsurprisingly, all 12 made the playoffs, including the league’s first three champions. That’s a great sign for both of these two.

Not far behind, Geoff and Josh picked up their fourth wins of the season and are now 4-2, the former running his winning streak to three games while the latter halted a two-game skid.

The loser of one of those games, Beth Ann drops to 3-3. She is joined by Greco, Jess (who defeated Brandon) and Samantha (who fell to Nick).

That leaves the bottom four in the standings—Nick, Erik, Brandon and Alex. Nick (now 2-4) looked great, winning his first weekly prize of the season—the sixth team owner to claim a weekly prize through the first six weeks. Erik dropped his third straight game and is also 2-4. Finally, Brandon and Alex both lost, dropping their records to 1-5.

Power Rankings

1. Gray
5-1, .864 TW%, 134.1 ppg

Even in a down game, Gray continues to dominate. Despite just 13.7 points from his RBs and 13.52 points from Daniel Jones (sadly, a good day at QB by Gray’s standards this season), he still finished with the second-most points in the league this week. That’s because Cooper Kupp (WR2), Tyreek Hill (WR3) and Travis Kelce (TE1) are that good. His first three picks in the draft, Kupp, Hill and Kelce all rank within the top-six of all flex-eligible players. Put another way, there are only eight players in all of fantasy averaging 20+ ppg at RB/WR/TE through the first six weeks. Gray has three of them. That provides a healthy floor of 68.9 ppg and a ceiling for much higher on boom weeks for Gabe Davis or Dameon Pierce (21.4 ppg over his last three games 🫣). All of which means, even with 121.22 points scored, this was a “floor” week for Gray. And I honestly don’t think we’ve seen the ceiling yet.

2. Brandon
1-5, .621 TW%, 122.9 ppg

Okay, Brandon deserved to lose this one. Yes, Josh Allen and Mark Andrews combined for 49.96 points. But that was over half of Brandon’s total in Week 6. With Derrick Henry on bye, Aaron Jones and Mike Boone combined for just 8.8 points. And after ranking within the top half of the league in WR scoring through the first three weeks, Brandon is dead last over the last three (just 18.1 ppg) with Christian Kirk and Drake London slumping. All that being said, Brandon would have won this game if he had started higher-pedigree players JuJu Smith-Schuster (22.3 points) and Adam Thielen (15.6 points). And even with the loss, Brandon scored enough points to hold on to the second spot in this week’s Power Rankings. But that’s poor consolation as Brandon cannot afford down games anymore. At 1-5, he probably needs to go 6-2 down the stretch and hope for the points tiebreaker to make the playoffs. 🙏

3. Nick (▲2)
2-4, .591 TW%, 120.9 ppg

Staring down the barrel of a 1-5 start, Nick saved his best game of the season for just the right time. With a season-high 146.2 points scored, Nick claimed his first weekly prize since Week 2 of last year. Saquon Barkley (18.5 points) and Stefon Diggs (30.8 points) continued to carry the load. But this week, they were joined by standout performances from Joe Burrow (32.5 points) and Rhamondre Stevenson (25.1 points), the latter of whom looked strong with Damien Harris out. If eighth-rounder Stevenson can keep up this pace, that’s a game changer for Nick. As for his playoff hopes, let’s take a look.

In the latest Playoff Picture, Samantha and Brandon are out. Josh and Nick are in.

As you can see, despite the 2-4 start, Nick is now projected to make the playoffs with a 66% chance—an increase of 38% from just last week. That’s because he’s now third in the Power Rankings, third in scoring and has the easiest remaining schedule. With an average opponent TW% of just .445, he has only three remaining games against teams in the top half of the Power Rankings.

4. Chelsie (▼1)
5-1, .576 TW%, 117.1 ppg

This year’s early frontrunner for luckiest team owner, Chelsie has failed to reach this season’s league average for points (112.6) in four straight games but is nevertheless 3-1 in that time. This week, she defeated Erik despite just 108.12 points scored. (Note: her opponents are averaging just 94.9 ppg through the first six weeks—a league low.) Granted, her total in Week 6 was still fifth-most in a down week for scoring overall. In fact, with an average of 100.4 points scored, this was the lowest-scoring week in the PPR era. And by a significant margin. The previous low was Week 10 of last year when teams averaged 103.9 ppg.

But the good news! DeAndre Hopkins is finally making his return from a PED suspension in Week 7. And because these Power Rankings are coming out after the Week 7 Thursday night game, we already know he showed out with 20.3 points on 10 catches for 103 yards. I know Gray’s got the best WR group in the league (averaging 50.2 ppg with 30.3 receptions per game, both tops in the league), but Cheslie is not far behind with A.J. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Diontae Johnson and now Hopkins.

5. Josh (▲2)
4-2, .515 TW%, 112.9 ppg

Kenneth Walker might just be the season-saver Josh needed. Not that his season was lost. At 4-2, he’s in great shape. Now fifth in the Power Rankings, Josh would be the three seed if the playoffs started today. But without Javonte Williams, he had a big hole at RB. Enter 10th-round pick Walker who made his first career start for the Seahawks in Week 6, scoring 19.0 points. That was good enough for RB8 on the week with only Saquon Barkley getting more carries. Sounds like a workhorse back to me. With average games for Lamar Jackson (16.1 points) and Justin Jefferson (16.7 points), Josh got balanced scoring across the board, including Walker, Devin Singletary (14.7 points), Jakobi Meyers (10.0 points) and Zach Ertz (14.0 points). With a 76% chance to make the playoffs, Josh is firmly in the mix as we reach the midpoint of our season, though he does have the toughest remaining schedule with games against all the teams in the top half of the Power Rankings.

6. Samantha (▼1)
3-3, .500 TW%, 107.9 ppg

In Week 6, Samantha didn’t put up much of a fight against Nick, scoring just 90.7 points—a season low and the first time she’s failed to top 100 points this season. But we all have down games. And playing without Davante Adams, T.J. Hockenson and even Daniel Carlson (currently K1), all on bye, these things are inevitable. I say, turn the page. Yes, she dropped out of the list of projected playoff teams this week, but things are looking up. Specifically, Chris Godwin is getting stronger. In Week 6, he tied for fifth among all WRs in targets with 12. The big one is coming. The real question is what happens to third-rounder DJ Moore, who appears to be the last one left in Carolina after Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey were traded away in recent days. If Moore picks up more targets with those two gone or finds a new home, himself, perhaps his value increases as well. SOMEBODY SAVE DJ MOORE!

T7. Geoff (▼3)
4-2, .485 TW%, 112.7 ppg

Congratulations to Geoff on a new record! With just 86.16 points scored, Geoff still somehow came away with the win in Week 6, defeating Alex who, himself, scored just 75.32 points. As a result, Geoff now has the record for fewest points in a victory in the PPR era, breaking the mark set by Beth Ann in Week 10 of 2020 when she won despite 86.42 points scored. Hey, a win’s a win. And now Geoff, despite his sub-.500 TW% is 4-2 with a 76% chance of making the playoffs, which is right in line with historical precedent. (In league history, 4-2 teams make the playoffs 72% of the time.) Yes, he’s benefitted from a little luck, but it’s impressive to be 4-2 despite early-season injuries to Dak Prescott and Amon-Ra St. Brown. And now…he gets BOTH of those guys back. Both Prescott and St. Brown should return to the field in Week 7, which is great news for Geoff. With Austin Ekeler (RB1) playing the way he has, the third-highest scoring group of WRs in the league (43.5 ppg) while ranking second in receptions (30.2 per game), and now Prescott back in the fold, Geoff’s arrow is pointing up despite this week’s drop.

T7. Greco
3-3, .485 TW%, 112.2 ppg

Okay, so I maybe I jinxed Greco a little bit. Sorry! One week after declaring her team to have a rocket ship heading to the moon, Greco cratered with just 93.02 points scored in a high-profile matchup with Gray. It didn’t help that Nick Chubb and David Montgomery combined for just 17.0 points. Or that Mike Williams did what Mike Williams does sometimes and busted with 3.7 points. BUT…you have to be encouraged. That’s because team namesake Ja’Marr Chase broke out with a season-high 32.2 points on seven catches for 132 yards and two TDs. With Josh Jacobs back, who was out on bye in Week 6, we might see this team’s full potential in Week 7. We’re talking Tom Brady, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Ja’Marr Chase and Mike Williams. I’m expecting a bounce back and a big game coming from that group. And the computer agrees. At 3-3, Greco is still currently projected to make the playoffs ahead of fellow 3-3 team owners, Samantha, Jess and Beth Ann. Now is there some wood I can knock on around here…? 🤜 🪵

9. Erik (▼2)
2-4, .409 TW%, 108.6 ppg

Things are fluid. But I would say, based on TW%, the league currently has four tiers.

T1: Gray (>.800 TW%) 😈
T2: Brandon, Nick, Chelsie (.575-.625 TW%) 💪
T3: Josh, Samantha, Geoff, Greco (.485-.515 TW%) 🤷‍♂️
T4: Everyone else… (<.425 TW%) 😥

And that “everyone else” tier starts with Erik whose arrow is pointing down. With just 85.02 points scored in Week 6, Erik picked up his third-straight loss after starting 2-1. Since that time, he’s tied for last in TW% (.303) and is ninth in scoring (100.0 ppg). A team that relies on its RBs, Erik has seen a dip in production for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, averaging just 4.9 ppg over the last two weeks. In fact, Edwards-Helaire is a bit of bellwether, himself. In games where Edwards-Helaire scores 15.0 points or more, Erik has a TW% of .576 with 122.44 ppg scored. When Edwards-Helaire fails to reach that mark, his TW% dips to .242 with just 94.7 ppg. Now with Marquise Brown (WR5) out with a foot injury until at least Week 11, Erik will need to rely on his Chiefs brethren even more, which now includes trade acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster. All that being said, he still has some strong playmakers on this team and is still within shouting distance of the next tier.

10. Jess (▲1)
3-3, .394 TW%, 102.9 ppg

Big win for Jess in Week 6, defeating Brandon 110.32 to 90.16. That may seem like a low total. But in a down week for scoring, that was third-most. Third-rounder Michael Pittman came up big with 26.4 points, his most since Week 1. And as Jess noted in the group text, it could have been even more if she had started Jonathan Taylor’s backup Deon Jackson (28.1 points). Regardless, this team looks much improved. And, as we noted last week, a core of Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall (20+ points for the second straight week) and Miles Sanders at RB, plus Deebo Samuel and Michael Pittman at WR is strong. With the worst team in the league from Weeks 2-5, Jess is lucky to be 3-3. But those wins all count, which explains why, despite being 10th in this week’s Power Rankings, Jess has a 24% chance to make the playoffs. And I think that number might be understating her chances given Breece Hall’s emergence and Taylor’s impending return. She’s bottom tier now. But probably has the best chance to rise from this group.

11. Beth Ann (▼1)
3-3, .348 TW%, 101.8 ppg

The recipient of two wins in a row despite subpar scoring, Beth Ann’s luck finally ran out in Week 6 as she was defeated by Josh while scoring just 88.68 points, herself. In fact, since leaving for her honeymoon in Week 2, Beth Ann has the lowest-scoring team in the league, averaging just 94.8 ppg. (Beth Ann come back! 🏖) She’s also last in the league in WR scoring in that time as Brandin Cooks, Terry McLaurin and Jerry Jeudy—her third-, fourth- and sixth-round picks have all disappointed. Leonard Fournette (RB5) has been keeping this team alfoat, but without D’Andre Swift (who hasn’t played a full game since Week 2), she’s certainly struggled to put up the points. But…she’s still 3-3. And with higher-ranked teams like Brandon’s (1-5) and Nick’s (2-4) struggling to pick up wins, that opens the door for team owners like Beth Ann to take advantage. And best of all, D’Andre Swift appears likely to make his comeback in a couple weeks. So, let’s see how this team looks with Swift back in the fold before we count out the reigning champ.

12. Alex
1-5, .212 TW%, 97.3 ppg

This week thing’s got real for Alex on the group text.

“I’m pretty close to quitting fantasy. I hate football so much.”

We’ve all been there, man. In Week 6, Alex scored a season-low 75.32 points—the third time this season he’s finished with the fewest points in the league in a given week. This time, in a very winnable game against Geoff who scored just 86.16 points, himself, Alex had his defeat snatched from the jaws of victory. Entering Monday night, Alex needed Russell Wilson, Melvin Gordon and Courtland Sutton to outscore Austin Ekeler by 4.56 points. No doubt, Ekeler is a stud. But, three (including a QB) against one is very doable. Unfortunately, Ekeler outscored Alex’s Broncos trio by 6.01 points all by himself. Now Alex along with Brandon are just the ninth and 10th team owners to start the season with a 1-5 record or worse. (And yes, I got this stat wrong in the group text previously.) Of the eight previous team owners to start 1-5 or 0-6, none made the playoffs, though Nick in 2016 would have if a six-team playoff had existed. After starting 1-6, Nick reeled off six straight wins to finish 7-6. So…anything’s possible. And maybe the Christian McCaffrey trade to San Francisco is just what the doctor ordered. Hang in there, Alex.

Looking Ahead to Week 6

Can anyone stop Gray? Beth Ann has as good a chance as any this week as Gray will be playing without multiple starters, including Cooper Kupp and Gabe Davis, not to mention Jeff Wilson and Darrell Henderson.

I’m also loving the high-profile matchups between Chelsie and Josh—two team owners near the top of the standings—and Geoff and Greco. Can Greco deliver on the outsized expectations I’ve placed on her? Or will my jinx continue now that Geoff has Dak Prescott and Amon-Ra St. Brown back?

As for the rest of the league, lots of team owners scrambling for wins. Erik is hoping to end his three-game skid against Jess. Meanwhile, both Alex and Brandon are hoping to get their second wins against Samantha and Nick.

Good luck to everyone this week. And remember, be careful. It’s scary out there.