Week 7 Power Rankings
We’ve officially reached the midpoint of the season, which is a perfect time to reflect on the year. I had a whole trick-or-treat open planned with the year’s biggest sleepers and busts. But turns out you’re getting a flaming bag of poo instead. (It was a busy week.) So given that, there’s no time to waste. Let’s get right to it.
Scoreboard
Greco led all scorers in Week 7 with 161.9 points.
Seven weeks. Seven different weekly-prize winners.
This time it was Greco who announced her presence forcefully with 161.9 points in a win over Geoff, pushing her up the Power Rankings and further securing her place in the Playoff Picture. More on that below.
In other news, the rich get richer. Gray and Chelsie keep winning. Both are now 6-1 after wins over Beth Ann and Josh, becoming just the 10th and 11th teams in league history to start 6-1. Since no team has ever started 7-0, that’s tied for the best start in league history through seven weeks.
After Gray and Chelsie, the standings reveal a tight race with eight teams with a 4-3 or 3-4 record. That includes Greco, Samantha, Geoff, Josh, Nick, Erik, Beth Ann and Jess. Speaking of which, don’t look now, but Nick has won two straight games and is charging up the Power Rankings after a 1-4 start.
Finally, Brandon and Alex may have traded each other half their rosters this week, but neither one could get a second win. Both are now 1-6—just the sixth and seventh teams with that record. And because no team owner has ever started 0-7, that’s also tied for the Worst’s worst record through the first seven weeks. Pain.
Power Rankings
Greco is the week’s biggest mover, jumping four spots into third place.
1. Gray
6-1, .818 TW%, 130.8 ppg
In his first game without a 49ers RB in the lineup, Gray had his worst game yet...and he still finished in the top half of the league in scoring. With 111.02 points scored, it was just enough to beat Beth Ann thanks to 8.3 points from Darnell Mooney on Monday night. (By the way, good call playing Mooney over Damien Harris who would not have gotten the job done.) Playing without Cooper Kupp plus likely starters Gabe Davis and Darrell Henderson (all on bye), Gray survived thanks to 25 combined points from his defense and kicker—the difference in the game. Jimmy Garoppolo’s 16.32 points at QB were a season-high, but I was impressed by 15.2 points from ninth-rounder Brandon Aiyuk (WR21), indicative of the nice depth Gray has cultivated. In fact, Gray is one of only four team owners whose career TW% actually improves during the bye weeks (the others being Samantha, Jess and Brandon) and the only one whose scoring actually goes UP (+0.2 ppg). I mean, this guy... 😩
2. Nick (▲1)
3-4, .636 TW%, 123.1 ppg
At #2 in the Power Rankings, we’re once again talking about a high-scoring team with a losing record and multiple unlucky losses. Only it’s not Brandon. It’s Nick. This guy is absolutely on fire the last couple of weeks, finishing as the runner-up for the weekly prize one week after winning it, himself. Remember, it wasn’t that long ago Nick had a middling team with a 1-4 record, shouting “FIRE SALE” in the group text with Saquon Barkley on the block.
What changed? Eighth- and fourth-rounders Rhamondre Stevenson (20.28 ppg over the last five weeks) and Travis Etienne (15.4 ppg over the last three) have emerged as lead backs to join Barkley in leading the league’s most feared backfield (though Greco will have something to say about that). As a result Nick is second in RB scoring on the season and first over the last two weeks, getting 51.9 ppg. And with that trio, I don’t see him letting up anytime soon. Especially considering the James Robinson trade has now cleared the runway for Etienne.
There are weaknesses. Nick is last in TE scoring (despite spending a third-round pick on Kyle Pitts). WR2 is still a WIP. Or it was. Acquiring Tyler Boyd in a trade with Gray for Brian Robinson just hours before Adam Schefter announced Ja’Marr Chase would miss four-to-six weeks is the definition of fortuitous and very reminiscent of last year’s Gray/Nick trade involving Christian McCaffrey just days before McCaffrey was placed on IR. But at 3-4 and just a game out of the playoffs with half the season to go, Nick can and should threaten Gray for league supremacy.
3. Greco (▲4)
4-3, .558 TW%, 119.3 ppg
I tried to warn y’all. There’s the Greco I was hyping up two weeks ago:
⚠️ WARNING! ⚠️ WARNING! ⚠️ This team is a rocket ship headed to the moon … Yes, Nick Chubb (25.4 points) continues to do Nick Chubb things. But Josh Jacobs (30.3 points) is suddenly the second engine on this spaceship. Both are currently top-4 RBs … And, oh yeah, we haven’t even talked about first-round pick and team namesake Ja’Marr Chase yet, who has been solid (WR13) but is clearly biding his time … I’m saying T-minus three weeks until she’s in the top three of these rankings.
Three weeks? Greco only needed two. She’s now launched herself from 11th (Weeks 1-3) to ninth (Week 4) to seventh (Week 5-6) and is now third, her highest ranking so far this season. And this week, she had her best game yet, scoring a season-high 161.9 points and winning her first weekly prize of the year. In fact, it’s just her fourth one in the last five seasons. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Greco starts picking up more of these. Sixth-rounder Josh Jacobs (RB4) is averaging 33.8 ppg over this last three games and might end up being the steal of the draft. As a result, Greco has now taken the RB crown from Erik for highest-scoring backfield in the league. With Ja’Marr Chase scoring 30+ points in back-to-back weeks, this is a dangerous team.
If there is cause for concern, Mike Williams (WR9) did suffer a high-ankle sprain in Week 7 and is likely to miss time. And as noted above, Ja’Marr Chase has a hip injury that will cause him to miss time. (At least he’s not being put on IR!) That’s two WR injuries in the same week. But…this team has sneaky depth with Tyler Lockett, Allen Lazard, Jamaal Williams, Antonio Gibson and Raheem Mostert ALL ranking as top-30 players at their positions. Yes, you’d like to be getting more points out of Tom Brady or the TE position (Greco is eighth and 11th in scoring there). But at 4-3 and third in the league in scoring, Greco’s in great shape (if she can weather the Chase injury until he returns) and a definite contender this season.
T4. Brandon (▼2)
1-6, .545 TW%, 117.9 ppg
FOOL! This is why we have the Power Rankings, so we don’t do rash things. Unfortunately, I let my record and my lizard brain take over, making three trades this week to shake up a team that probably just needed me to stand pat. Let’s take a look at the damage with Week 7 scores in parentheses:
OUT:
Josh Allen (bye)
Aaron Jones (28.6 points)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (25.4 points)
Tyler Allgeier (11.0 points)
Wan’Dale Robinson (11.0 points)
IN:
Christian McCaffrey (8.2 points)
Keenan Allen (3.1 points)
Chris Olave (17.6 points)
Tua Tagovailoa (15.94 points)
Michael Carter (9.4 points)
Oof...is it too late to ask for my team back? Of course, Aaron Jones broke out with a nine-catch game, outscoring McCaffrey and Keenan Allen by 17.3 points combined. While Olave played well, he was still outscored by JuJu Smith-Schuster. And finally, Tagovailoa was respectable, finishing as QB11 on the week, but it didn’t help that I dropped Michael Carter right before the Breece Hall injury. If I had done nothing in Week 7, my starting lineup (which likely would have included the aforementioned Jones and Smith-Schuster plus Matt Ryan, Derrick Henry, Christian Kirk and Romeo Doubs) would have scored 106.82 points. Still not nearly enough for the win, but unsettling nonetheless. Come back, Josh Allen. Come back!
(Breathes) 😮💨
But…if I had to look at it from a glass half-full perspective (which is hard to do at 1-6), McCaffrey only played 29% of the snaps in his first game with the 49ers. Keenan Allen played just 33% of snaps, but did make a return to the field for the first time since Week 1 and has a bye week now to recover. Both should see big jumps in production, especially the latter with Mike Williams set to miss at least four weeks. Even though Josh Allen will be missed, the downgrade from Allen to Tagovailoa (according to ESPN’s Week 8 projections) of 3.6 points is balanced out by the upgrade from Jones to McCaffrey of 4.8 points. And that doesn’t even take into account the Keenan Allen part of the deal who, if healthy, could be a big boost to what is currently the league’s second-worst receiving corps. So theoretically (he says uncertainly to himself) it should all work out. Theoretically... 😬
T4. Chelsie
6-1, .545 TW%, 114.8 ppg
Welcome back DeAndre Hopkins! The veteran WR returned from a PED suspension in Week 7 to score 20.3 points in his 2022 debut. With Diontae Johnson struggling (the 18th WR drafted but currently WR31), Hopkins will likely push Johnson to the bench to form a powerful receiving corps that also includes A.J. Brown and Jaylen Waddle. All three are currently top-12 among healthy WRs in points per game. Even Gray can’t say that. If it weren’t for the obvious deficiencies at RB (Chelsie ranks last with just 18.6 ppg thanks largely to a disappointing season for Najee Harris and no real RB2 to speak of), this team would be even more of a threat.
Yes, she’s been a little lucky. (Fun fact: Chelsie and Brandon have the exact same TW%. Brandon has more points. Chelsie is 6-1. Brandon is 1-6. Oh…it hurts.) But at 6-1, Chelsie is in great shape. In league history, there have only been nine teams to start 6-1 and all nine made the playoffs. At this point, she’s a relative lock. So now it’s all about positioning herself to make a deep run in her debut season.
T4. Samantha (▲2)
4-3, .545 TW%, 110.4 ppg
You know Alex always brings out the best in Samantha. In Week 7, Samantha picked up a big win against her rival, putting up a season-high 125.66 points and improving her career record against Alex to 6-2. With Jaylen Hurts on bye, Samantha got 17+ points from Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Davante Adams and, yes, DJ Moore. Playing without former teammates Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson, Moore got all the targets (10), finishing ninth at WR in Week 7—his best game this season. Though she’s one of only two team owners without a “boom” week of 130+ points, she’s been consistently good and is now tied for fourth in the Power Rankings with Brandon and Chelsie. She’s also finished third in the league in scoring in two out of the last three weeks. And now trades for James Robinson to the Jets and Kadarius Toney to the Chiefs could provide Samantha with some much-needed depth and upside as we enter the second half of the season.
7. Geoff
4-3, .506 TW%, 112.7 ppg
Some weeks, you’re the hammer. Some weeks, you’re Geoff going against the weekly-prize-winner with three of your players going down with injury. As Geoff pointed out in the group text, he had three mid-game injuries that derailed his Week 7 chances. Specifically, Amon-Ra St. Brown (concussion), DK Metcalf (knee) and David Njoku (ankle) combined for just 17.7 points before exiting early with injuries. But the good news? Though Njoku is expected to miss two-to-five weeks, neither of the injuries to his star receivers should keep them from missing any additional time. That’s a major sigh of relief. 🙏
And even still, he finished in the top half of the league in scoring in Week 7 with 112.58 points. That’s largely because Austin Ekeler, the fourth pick in the draft, is currently the RB1 by a mile. Leading Saquon Barkley (RB2) by a massive 33.1 points (or 4.7 ppg), Ekeler has hit 30+ points in three of the last four weeks, including two straight games with 10+ receptions. That, plus four top-30 WRs, is a big reason why Geoff leads all team owners in receptions with 30.0 per game. His biggest weakness has been QB where he ranks 11th. But with Dak Prescott back, that should hopefully improve, pushing Geoff up the rankings in the weeks to come.
8. Josh (▼3)
4-3, .442 TW%, 107.6 ppg
Let’s be real. Josh was always going to lose this game. No Justin Jefferson and no Devin Singletary on a team with questionable depth is not a recipe for fantasy success. With Lamar Jackson (10.1 points) being outscored by Josh’s backup Geno Smith (13.1 points), Josh had his worst game of the season, scoring just 76.0 points—the second-fewest by any team owner this season. That included only nine receptions in Week 7, the second-fewest in a week in the PPR era. (The record still belongs to Nick who had just six in Week 13 of 2020.)
That being said, Josh is 4-3 with a lot to like moving forward. Kenneth Walker has two top-10 finishes at RB in a row and was RB3 last week, averaging 23.9 ppg since he took over the backfield from Rashaad Penny in Seattle. And though I don’t see Josh Reynolds being a fantasy contributor long term with the return of Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift in Detroit, I love the speculative adds of Kyren Williams and Kareem Hunt. The latter was dropped by Chelsie this week and, with real-life trade rumors swirling, received no less than four waiver claims from Josh, Gray, Nick and yours truly. By this time next week, Josh could have another starting RB on the roster, which is just what he’ll need to move back into the Playoff Picture. Currently, he’s projected to miss the playoffs with a 40% chance to make it in, a decrease of 35% from last week.
In the latest Playoff Picture, Josh is out and Samantha is back in. Meanwhile, Greco and Nick improve their odds by 32% and 22%, respectively.
9. Erik
3-4, .390 TW%, 106.3 ppg
What a wild week for Erik! Just the third game in league history decided by less than a point, Erik defeated Jess by 0.98 points despite not starting a kicker. Leading by less than three points entering Monday night, Jess needed just a single field goal from Patriots kicker Nick Folk to beat Erik—something Folk had done in five straight games. Unfortunately, the Patriots got unexpectedly steamrolled by the Bears with Folk registering just two extra points, granting Erik the win. Also of note, Erik would not have won this game without the trade of Chris Olave for JuJu Smith-Schuster. (Sorry Jess!)
Look, I’m not going to sugarcoat it. Erik has the worst team in the league over the last three weeks. With a TW% of .182 with 90.5 ppg, the former season-long leader in RB scoring as recently as last week is now 5th over the last three weeks with the disappearance of Clyde Edwards-Helaire (6.3 ppg since Week 5). But, he’s still 3-4. All of these teams—outside of Alex’s and Brandon’s—are just a game out of the playoffs with seven games to go. So there’s plenty of time to turn things around. With two top-12 RBs (Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon) and three top-30 WRs (Tee Higgins, JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVonta Smith) plus Justin Herbert, there’s more than enough talent here to win some games even with the injury to Marquise Brown.
T10. Beth Ann (▲1)
3-4, .364 TW%, 102.3 ppg
That’s two losses in a row for Beth Ann who lost a close one to Gray. Leading the Power Rankings leader by less than three points, it seemed Beth Ann might escape with another low-scoring victory. But Darnell Mooney’s 8.3 points on Monday night were just enough to give Gray the win. As a result, Beth Ann already has her fourth loss of the season despite averaging just 4.0 losses in total each of the last two years.
All that being said, there’s actually a lot of good to take from this week’s loss. Despite ranking 10th in WR scoring on the season, Beth Ann got good games from Terry McLaurin (a season-high 18.3 points) and Jerry Jeudy (16.6 points on a season-high seven receptions). The fact that Ezekiel Elliott is likely to miss his Week 8 game is good news for Tony Pollard. Ditto for Joshua Palmer who stands to benefit with the Mike Williams injury. And the best news of all? D’Andre Swift looks like he is finally ready to make his return in Week 8—his first game back since a Week 3 injury. An improving WR corps, emerging depth and the return of her first-round pick? All reasons to think that Beth Ann is primed to make a run in the second half of the season.
T10. Jess
3-4, .364 TW%, 101.4 ppg
DEVASTATING. Just a terrible, awful, no-good week for Jess who lost Breece Hall for the year with a torn ACL. Following an explosive 62-yard TD run in the first quarter, the rookie RB and Jess’ fourth-round pick was just starting to break out with back-to-back games of 20+ points. Now he’s done for the year. Along with Javonte Williams (Josh’s RB) and Elijah Mitchell (Gray), the latter of whom was taken one pick before Hall in this year’s draft, the season-ending injury to Hall is no doubt one of the year’s biggest.
And to add injury to…well, injury, Jess will also miss second-round pick Deebo Samuel in Week 8 who is being held out with a hamstring injury. In fact, with the injury to Samuel, Jess’s first seven draft picks have now all missed time due to injury: Jonathan Taylor (two games), Deebo Samuel (out in Week 8), Michael Pittman (one game), Breece Hall (out for season), Dalton Schultz (two games), Michael Thomas (four games) and Cordarrelle Patterson (three games). Yikes. Is it any wonder that she’s struggled to put up points this year? Unfortunately, the only Deja Vu Jess has experienced this year is injury after injury. 🤕
12. Alex
1-6, .286 TW%, 100.3 ppg
Of course Alex lost to Samantha this week. Of course! Aside from the Week 4 weekly prize, Alex has not been very effective this year, finishing as a bottom-three scorer in five out of the first six weeks. So of course this week, when Alex finally topped the century mark for just the second time this year and finished as a top-four scorer, he was beaten by Samantha—his biggest rival. Ain’t that the way fantasy is sometimes?
But…all in all, it was a pretty good week for Alex. As we noted in Brandon’s recap, recent trade acquisition Aaron Jones had his second-best game of the year with 28.6 points on nine receptions, finishing as the RB4 of Week 7. If Jones can keep that up or even approximate the production of Christian McCaffrey, then swapping Keenan Allen (who has been a zero for Alex all year due to a hamstring injury) for Josh Allen (the frontrunner for NFL MVP) is a win-win. Throw in a second-straight big game for George Kittle (19.1 ppg over the last two weeks), and you’ve got a team with some potential upside. Do I love a lineup that relies on Latavius Murray and Robert Woods? No. But Josh Allen can cover up for many sins.
At 1-6 and last in the Power Rankings, Alex is a real long shot to make the playoffs. According to my computer, it happened just six times in 10,000 simulations. But it’s possible. In league history, five previous team owners started 1-6—Trevor in 2015 and 2017, Nick in 2016 and 2020, and Greco in 2018. Most ended the season with double-digit losses. But Nick in 2016 won his final six games in a row to finish 7-6 and would have made the playoffs if a six-team playoff had existed. So there’s hope. Time to light a candle to the patron saint of underdogs and pray for a miracle. Crazier things have happened.
Looking Ahead to Week 8
Let’s face it. This week’s biggest matchup is the Poop Bowl preview—Brandon vs. Alex. Two wins enter. Three wins leave. The good news? Somebody is getting that much-needed second win of the season. The bad news? Somebody is coming away with yet another loss. Unless…they tie. You just know that’s how it’s going to end.
Good luck to everyone else in Week 8 and Happy Halloween!
