Nick and Alex Advance to Semis
In the first round of the playoffs, Alex got his first playoff win over Samantha and Nick got his first playoff win ever. This week, we’re breaking down what happened plus looking ahead to two juicy matchups in the semifinals. Also, with the Omicron variant spreading rapidly throughout the NFL and the world, will anyone actually be active and physically able to play in these games? Plus, we’ll take a look at how the Poop Bowl is shaping up. Yes, Josh, you could still be in the Poop Bowl. So pay attention or the punishment could be yours.
The Scoreboard
(5) Nick and (3) Alex advanced to the semifinals with wins over (4) Gray and (6) Samantha.
Nick Gets First-Ever Playoff Win, Defeats Gray
In a season of firsts for Nick, add a playoff win to the list.
With a career playoff high 130.58 points scored, Nick is rounding into form, reasserting the dominance he displayed earlier this season. When combined with the 155.82 points he scored in a must-win regular season finale, that’s the highest two-week point total for Nick since Weeks 6-7 when he finished as the runner-up to the weekly prize in back-to-back weeks.
More importantly, Nick got the win over Gray, making this the first playoff win in Nick’s 11-year career. Previously, Nick had appeared in the 2018 playoffs as the one seed but lost both a semifinal matchup to Jess and the consolation game to Samantha. With the win, Nick is now the last of the league’s founding members to get his first playoff win. Only relative newcomers Beth Ann and Whitney remain winless in the playoffs; though Beth Ann will have another shot at it starting this week.
Key in the win for Nick was once again the play of Cooper Kupp who continues his record-breaking season with his sixth game of 30+ points this season. As Field Yates pointed out on Twitter, the gap between Cooper Kupp (WR1) and the next-closest WR (Tyreek Hill) is an astounding 88.9 points, which means that the gap between WR1 and WR2 is larger than the gap between WR2 and WR20.
As for Gray, his season-long dominance at RB fell short in the playoffs. Despite leading the league with 45.3 ppg from RBs during the regular season, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Michael Carter combined for just 12.0 points in Week 15. Darrell Henderson (4.7 points) and Chuba Hubbard (5.1) on the bench weren’t much better. And while Patrick Mahomes (29.6 points) finally played well when it mattered most, the same could not be said of his WRs or Kyle Pitts, the latter of whom played well in spurts this season but probably underperformed his fifth-round draft status.
The truth is this was just not Gray’s year. Remember, he was the second-worst team in the league over the last four weeks and the third-worst since trading away Austin Ekeler for Christian McCaffrey in Week 6. Given that, it’s not so surprising to see him go out with his fewest points scored in a playoff game since 2016. The loss drops his career playoff record to 8-6, though he still leads the league with eight playoff appearances and is second in playoff wins. If he had won this game, I would have pointed out that he was just one win away from becoming the first team owner to reach his 100th career win. With the loss, he’ll sit on 98 until next season.
Finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out the impact of Dalvin Cook on this game, considering the controversial trade involving Cook was such an important plot point for this matchup. Given the margin, Cook (who only scored 11.1 points) would not have made a difference in the outcome. In fact, Cook would not have changed the outcome for Nick in three out of four weeks since the trade. The one exception? Week 14. Nick would have lost the regular season finale against Samantha without Cook’s 35.2 points. And if he loses that game, he misses the playoffs.
So, no, Gray didn’t lose this game because of Dalvin Cook. He’s out either way. But without Dalvin Cook, Nick misses the playoffs. Jess takes his place. And if we re-seed the playoffs, it’s Alex and Jess who advance to the semifinals, not Alex and Nick. (It also potentially knocks out Geoff if we assume Samantha beats Whitney without Damien Harris in Week 13 and takes the two seed. Is your head spinning yet?) Honestly, it gets kinda complicated and it’s impossible to know how rosters would have been set.
But for now, back in reality, Gray is going home while Nick advances and will take on Beth Ann in the semifinals.
Alex Scrapes by Samantha in Brutal War of Attrition
After having been beaten by Samantha in the first round of the playoffs in 2018 and 2019, Alex won his first playoff game in six years, defeating Samantha in a nail-biter that was decided by just 3.14 points. It was the fourth-closest margin of victory in playoff history, trailing only the 2018 and 2016 championship games (both decided by two points or less) and Brandon’s 1.18-point semifinal victory over Beth Ann last year.
And this one couldn’t have come in more dramatic fashion. For a team owner who’s faced so many injuries and such long odds this season, the comeback kid did it again. Playing without Tyler Lockett who had been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, Alex then suffered in-game injuries to Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette. And then to make matters worse, his team namesake, Jerry Jeudy, scored exactly 0.0 points on just four targets. With Gerald Everett and Matt Gay totaling 20 points on Tuesday night for Samantha, Alex would need at least 24.5 from Jalen Hurts. The 11th-round pick got him 27.64. Just enough.
Though Hurts is “just” QB5 on the season—falling short of expectations by the QB whisperer’s typical standards—he was clutch in the first round of the playoffs, scoring three touchdowns, including two of the rushing variety, to lift Alex to a victory. Believe it or not, it was Alex’s first in the playoffs since winning the championship game in 2015.
As for Samantha, it was her fourth loss this season of less than five points—most in the league. She got just 5.4 points from Myles Gaskin in his return from the reserve/COVID-19 list for the Dolphins while Duke Johnson (25.7 points) got the production many expected for Gaskin going against the Jets. Mike Williams, who was boom-or-bust all season, busted with just 7.9 points, including a dropped TD pass. And finally, Russell Gage’s 23.1 points on the bench were all for naught.
The loss to Alex ends a very successful season for Samantha who finished third in the final Power Rankings, her highest ranking in league history. Ultimately, she came up just short in the playoffs. But let’s not forget that it’s her third appearance in just four years, which is the highest rate of success (75%) in the league, ahead even of Gray (73%). And despite her short tenure, she has more playoff wins than Josh, Erik, Nick, Beth Ann or Whitney and just as many as Geoff. Were it not for injuries to Calvin Ridley and T.J. Hockenson, she might have gone even further. For now, there’s always next year.
Looking Ahead to the Semifinals
In Week 16, it’s (1) Beth Ann vs. (5) Nick and (2) Geoff vs. (3) Alex.
Wins for Nick and Alex set up semifinal matchups with Beth Ann and Geoff. And with Gray’s elimination from the playoffs this week, that means we’re assured that neither Brandon nor Gray will win the championship for the first time since 2016. Of the four remaining team owners, both Beth Ann and Nick would be first-time champions whereas Geoff and Alex would win their second championships, having won previously in 2016 and 2015, respectively.
As for Beth Ann and Geoff, it’s important to note how important those first-round byes were. Without the byes, Beth Ann and Geoff finished fourth and fifth in scoring among playoff teams. Down games for Alvin Kamara, Ja’Marr Chase and Diontae Johnson (just 16.2 points combined) could have doomed Beth Ann. Ditto for Geoff who was without Lamar Jackson and got just 4.6 points from Najee Harris. But that’s why it’s important to win in the regular season. And as a result, they survived.
Given the new playoff bracket, let’s take a look at the updated playoff chances:
Beth Ann is still the heavy favorite to win the championship.
(1) Beth Ann vs. (5) Nick
In the first game, Beth Ann will take on Nick in what very well could be the de facto championship game. All season, Nick and Beth Ann have traded turns atop the Power Rankings. Together, they’ve combined for five weekly prizes and all 14 weeks at #1 in the rankings. Despite their seeding, they’re the top two teams in the final Power Rankings and are one-two in most statistical categories including TW%, points and receptions.
Entering this matchup, Beth Ann’s starting lineup appears to be completely healthy. Nick’s? Not so much. Earlier in the week, it appeared Nick had a chance to go “full evil” with D’Andre Swift, Darren Waller and Antonio Brown all returning to the lineup. But while it seems Brown and possibly Swift will be back, Darren Waller appears likely to remain out. And worse, both Austin Ekeler and Dalvin Cook have been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list as of this week. Cook is for sure out because he’s unvaccinated. No word on Ekeler who technically could be activated, but it’s not looking good. That’s a double whammy. So the Dalvin Cook trade may have helped Nick get this far, but if he’s going to advance to the finals, he is going to have to earn it.
Beth Ann is 4-1 against Nick for her career, though they split their two matchups earlier this year. The computer rates Beth Ann a moderate favorite with a 60% chance of winning. And given the COVID outbreak on Nick’s roster, the ESPN projections likes her as well, favoring her by upwards of 15 points.
(2) Geoff vs. (3) Alex
In the other game, which we’ll call the undercard, (2) Geoff will face (3) Alex.
Both these teams are limping into the semifinals. Let’s start with Alex. Yes, he won the battle against Samantha, but he may have lost the war. Chris Godwin tore his ACL and is out for the year. And Leonard Fournette suffered a hamstring injury that will likely keep him out for the rest of the fantasy playoffs. Those were Alex’s two highest-scoring players (not counting Jalen Hurts), ranking eighth and 11th among all flex-eligible players in fantasy this season. After weathering injuries to Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb, that’s a huge—potentially fatal—blow to lose them both in the playoffs. At least, Tyler Lockett should be back as he was activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list earlier this week.
But the best news for Alex is probably that Geoff is having roster issues of his own. Following 32.8 points in Week 15, Geoff’s best player, Tyreek Hill (WR2), tested positive and was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. In addition to Hill, Adam Thielen has not played since Week 13 due to an ankle injury, though he did practice for the first time in a limited capacity on Wednesday. Finally, Lamar Jackson is dealing with a bone bruise in his right ankle and is still questionable to return in Week 16. Those are three big question marks for Geoff in the semifinals. On top of all of that, recall that Geoff’s team was absolutely brutal over the last three weeks of the regular season, winning only 1 out of 32 true games (.030 TW%) while averaging 72.4 ppg. Though he had a bye in the first round, he didn’t look much better in Week 15 with just 99.7 points scored, though it should be noted that was without a starting QB. So both guys will be limited, which at least makes things more even.
Alex is 8-4 against Geoff all time, though Geoff did beat Alex earlier this year in their only matchup. Also, Geoff beat Alex in their only career playoff matchup, a victory in the consolation game way back in 2011. The computer says Alex is the favorite with a 54% chance. But the ESPN projections favor Geoff, though their model still projects Jackson, Hill and Thielen to play, and I would bet at least one if not two of them are out. Given all the uncertainties, I would call this one a toss-up.
Poop Bowl Update
Lastly, let’s take a look at how the Poop Bowl is shaping up. It especially seems worth mentioning since some team owners (ahem… Josh!) were apparently surprised to find out that they could still end up in the Poop Bowl. I guess not everyone reads these things all the way through as I definitely walked through how the Poop Bowl and the consolation ladder work back in the preseason. For a detailed breakdown, go re-read item #6 in the season preview.
With wins in Week 15, Jess and Erik are safe from the Poop Bowl.
Essentially, the way the ladder works is that you move up if you win and down if you lose. In the last week of the playoffs, the teams at the bottom of the ladder are in the Poop Bowl. And the loser gets the punishment. If you’re in the consolation ladder, your goal is to avoid that game in the bottom right (labeled “GmC9”) of the bracket above. That’s the Poop Bowl.
So with their wins in Week 15, both Jess and Erik moved up to the top of the ladder in Week 16. Because whoever loses that game would only drop one rung to the middle of the ladder in Week 17, they are both safe from the Poop Bowl and are officially “eliminated.” (That’s a good thing.) As we noted in the preseason, this also means they should not be making any more moves in free agency.
As for the other four team owners, Greco will take on Josh in the middle rung while Brandon will face Whitney at the bottom. The losers of those two games will then drop to the bottom of the ladder and into the Poop Bowl in Week 17. So those four team owners also have a lot at stake this week. Lose and you’re in the Poop Bowl. Win and you’re safe.
