Beth Ann to Face Alex in Finals
Nick has been the story of the season.
From the worst team in league history to the top of the Power Rankings, from the brink of elimination to a controversial trade that saved his season, it’s been dramatic at every turn. And because of that, we’ve written about it at length:
There was the season preview where we noted how Nick was coming off the first 1-12 season in league history.
The draft recap where we expressed “shock” at his drafting acumen, predicting him as having “won” the draft.
The Week 2 Power Rankings in which we noted that Nick was just the third team owner in league history to win two weekly prizes right out of the gate.
The prescient Week 5 trade of Christian McCaffrey for Austin Ekeler that helped him survive an injury to McCaffrey in back-to-back years.
The dastardly Week 11 trade for Dalvin Cook over Thanksgiving and the birth of “Evil Nick.”
The immediate wrath of the fantasy gods in Week 12.
The dramatic Week 14 win over Samantha buoyed by Cook and sealed by Christian Kirk that catapulted Nick to the playoffs.
And finally, Nick’s first-ever playoff win over his most vocal opponent, Gray.
Which brings us to this week…
Matched up against the league’s best team, Nick was faced with what might be the worst injury luck during the playoffs in league history. I can’t say for sure, but it’s hard to imagine being dealt a worse hand. Entering his semifinal matchup with Beth Ann, Nick was down:
First-rounder Dalvin Cook (reserve/COVID-19 list)
First-rounder Austin Ekeler (reserve/COVID-19 list)
Second-rounder Darren Waller (knee/back)
Third-rounder D’Andre Swift (shoulder)
13th-rounder Rhamondre Stevenson (reserve/COVID-19 list)
That’s just devastating. Waller and Swift we knew were injured going into the game. But both Cook and Ekeler tested positive for the virus in the days before. With Stevenson also testing positive, that left just one healthy RB on the roster (Cowboys backup Tony Pollard), which means Nick had to go to the waiver wire just to fill out his lineup.
Anybody else would have been dead in the water. But not Nick. Not this season.
In a year in which every move he’s made has been gilded as if by the thumbs of God, Joe Burrow—an afterthought included in the McCaffrey/Ekeler deal—blew up. With four TDs, 525 passing yards and 38.1 points scored, Burrow had a career day, throwing for the fourth-most passing yards in a game in NFL history. And miraculously, none of those TDs were to Ja’Marr Chase, one of Beth Ann’s receivers.
With Burrow leading the charge plus the timely return of Antonio Brown, Nick totaled 135.8 points in Week 16. To score that many without your top-four RBs (including three top-10 guys in ppg) plus Darren Waller is almost unfathomable. And it’s a credit to the depth and the management of this roster over the course of the season that Nick even made it competitive. Were it not for Ekeler’s absence (his handcuff Justin Jackson scored 34.2 points in relief), Nick actually could have won this game, even without Cook, Swift or Waller. Now, that’s saying something.
So as we say goodbye to Nick’s championship hopes this year, I’d just like to salute him for the greatest one-year turnaround in league history. His jump in TW% from .201 in 2020 to .623 in 2021 is the largest ever. And it’s the result of a lot of hard work. You may disagree with the Dalvin Cook deal—and at least half of you did—but you have to respect the hustle.
If I could sum it up in one image, it would be the chart below. It’s a scatterplot of activity vs. TW% for every team in league history. Every dot on the chart is a single season by an individual team owner. The orange dots are Nick. The gray ones are everybody else.
Nick in 2021 represented a dramatic departure from Nick of the past.
As you can see, most of those orange dots are low and to the left. That’s because in the 10 years prior to this one, Nick was a set-it-and-forget-it team owner who drafted, made relatively few moves (on average, 6.0 per season) and then finished with a below-average team (on average, .421 TW%).
But this year was very different. Nick made three trades and picked up 60 players on the waiver wire or in free agency for a total of 63 moves. In the 10 years before this one, he made 60. Total. That’s more moves in one year than he made in all of the last 10 combined. In fact, it’s the fourth-most active season in league history trailing only three of Brandon’s seasons (2016: 83, 2021: 69 and 2018: 67).
As a result, Nick had his most successful season ever. With a TW% of .623, it’s miles ahead of his previous best (.556 in 2018; previously his most active season). And it ranks as the 22nd best team (out of 132) in league history. Which may not sound impressive. But imagine what this team might have accomplished if it had been fully healthy.
Ultimately, Nick came up short. Yes, Beth Ann had the better team. And maybe fantasy karma had a little bit to do with it. But there’s no doubt, Nick had the most memorable team this year. When it’s all said and done, Nick’s 2021 will go down in league history alongside other infamous teams that failed to win it all. Like Alex’s Thanos team or Gray’s GOAT squad, we will always remember Evil Nick.
The Scoreboard
Beth Ann beat Nick in the highest-scoring game in playoff history while Geoff lost to Alex in the lowest-scoring playoff game in the PPR era.
Beth Ann, Omicron Too Much for Nick
Before this week, I called Nick and Beth Ann’s game the “de facto championship game.” And with all due respect to Alex, I think that’s true.
Faced with injuries to five key players including his top-three RBs, Nick rallied behind a career day from Joe Burrow and the return of Antonio Brown. Cooper Kupp (as usual) was solid, but the team ultimately came up short with Nick’s two fill-in RBs (Tony Pollard and Joshua Kelley) combining for just 10.1 points. Neither Austin Ekeler nor Dalvin Cook played in this game as both tested positive for COVID-19 and were sidelined.
Had anyone else been his opponent this week, Nick might have advanced. In fact, Nick outscored both Alex and Geoff, the two teams in the other semifinal. But Beth Ann is not any other team.
With 163.18 points scored, Beth Ann set the record for the most points scored in a playoff game in league history, breaking the record set by Greco in the semifinals last year with 159.32. Beth Ann had seven players go for 15 points or more. That included all three of her stud WRs plus Aaron Rodgers, David Montgomery, Mark Andrews and even the Dolphins D/ST—her second-highest scorer with 25.0 points on Monday night to salt away the victory.
Alex Topples Geoff, Limps to Finals
No Leonard Fournette. No Chris Godwin. No problem.
Despite being down two key starters, Alex bested Geoff in the lowest scoring playoff game in the PPR era. Nick Chubb and Dalton Schultz combined for 49.6 points (nearly two-thirds of Geoff’s total score), which allowed the rest of Alex’s starters to play clean-up duty. Despite five players finishing in single digits (including Saquon Barkley who scored just 3.8 points), Alex easily got the win, beating Geoff by 25.44 points.
As for Geoff, he was undone by injuries. It seemed like good news when Tyreek Hill was activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list. But he scored just 3.9 points on two catches. Instead, backup Byron Pringle totaled 25.5 points on Geoff’s bench. Ditto for Adam Thielen who wasn’t fully recovered from a high-ankle sprain and had to leave early. And then finally, Miles Sanders had to leave his game in the first half with a broken hand. Injuries to those three—Hill, Thielen and Sanders—plus Lamar Jackson, who remained out with a bruised ankle, left Geoff with a fairly anemic squad.
Ultimately, it’s a disappointing end to a promising season for Geoff. After starting the year 9-2 and scoring 125.4 ppg, Geoff lost his next four games while averaging just 75.2 points. That’s a drop of more than 50 ppg. To blame were a couple late byes, poor depth and multi-week injuries to Lamar Jackson and Adam Thielen. It’s not the season he wanted, but it’s a marked improvement, giving him his first winning season since 2016. Perhaps this year will serve as a springboard to even more success in 2022. For now, Geoff will face Nick in the consolation game.
Championship Preview
This is Beth Ann’s first appearance in a championship game and Alex’s third.
After the longest season in league history, we’ve finally come down to one final matchup—Beth Ann vs. Alex. It’s the one seed vs. the three seed. The league’s best team vs. the team of destiny. The unstoppable force vs. the immovable object. One of the league’s newest members vs. the commissioner. Let’s break it down, analyzing how each team got here and then look ahead to the championship game.
Beth Ann
9-5, .721 TW%, 131.8 ppg
Coming off a successful sophomore season in which she finished with the best record in the league but came up short in the playoffs, Beth Ann has now advanced to the finals for the first time in her three-year career. As we noted in the playoff preview, she led the league in wins (nine), TW% (.721), scoring (131.8 ppg), receptions (28.9 per game) and weekly prizes (three). And she led the Power Rankings five out of 14 weeks, ultimately finishing first for the first time in her career.
The best (or most infuriating) part? She made it look so easy. Beth Ann was one of five team owners with 11 or fewer moves all season. But while the others including Erik, Greco, Jess and Whitney all failed to make the playoffs, Beth Ann has been a runaway success. And that’s because she absolutely killed the draft. Here are her first seven picks with their current ranking by position.
Alvin Kamara (RB12)
Justin Jefferson (WR3)
David Montgomery (RB22)
Diontae Johnson (WR7)
Mark Andrews (TE1)
Aaron Rodgers (QB6)
Ja'Marr Chase (WR8)
That’s three top-eight WRs and the best overall TE. It’s no wonder Beth Ann led the league in receptions and averaged a whopping 54.5 ppg from WRs, second-most in league history to Jess’ Power Glove team from last year. And though Kamara and Montgomery’s current rankings seem lackluster, that’s because they each missed four games this season due to injury. By scoring average, they rank seventh and 17th, respectively.
Yes, the rest of the draft was forgettable with a backup QB, two backup TEs and not a single RB or WR that finished in the top 40 at their position. But when you nail your first seven picks, you don’t need to do much else. Case in point, those seven players have served as her starters for most of the season with over 90% of Beth Ann’s total scoring coming from the draft, second-most in the league, trailing only Greco.
Though she only had to start him twice, Hunter Renfrow was this year’s best free agent acquisition not named Cordarrelle Patterson. And the red hot Dolphins D/ST, picked up in Week 12 has been awesome, averaging a ridiculous 17.5 ppg over their last four games.
After securing her first-ever playoff win, Beth Ann enters the finals as not only the best team in the league, but the hottest team in the league. With the most points scored in Week 16, Beth Ann has now finished with the top score in three of the past five weeks in which she’s competed. And she’s finished in the top three in 10 out of 15 weeks overall including the last five in a row.
Beth Ann is the seventh one seed to appear in the finals, though only three have come away with a championship—Gray (2013), Jess (2014) and Brandon (2017). If Beth Ann joins that group, she would also become just the third team to finish first in the final Power Rankings AND win the championship. That’s a feat previously accomplished by only Jess (2014) and Brandon (2017). And Beth Ann’s team this year has been better by TW% than both. If she can seal the deal against Alex, her team would go down as an all-timer.
Alex
8-6, .532 TW%, 117.2 ppg
Started from the bottom, now he’s here. Coming off his worst season in four years—an injury-riddled campaign in which he finished 6-7 and missed the playoffs—Alex started his comeback season with the 12th pick in the draft for the first time in his career. But unlike Jess who drafted two WRs at the turn last year, Alex opted to go RB-RB, selecting Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb.
Those two nearly killed him. Though Alex got off to a hot start winning his first two games, he lost the next two despite above-average scoring. Ranking third in the Power Rankings after four weeks, that’s when disaster struck. Both Barkley and Chubb left their Week 5 games early due to injury. From Weeks 5-10, those two would miss a combined eight games. During that stretch, it’s no surprise that Alex had the second-worst team in the league with a TW% of .348 while scoring just 99.3 ppg.
By Week 7, Alex was 2-5 with little prospect of making the playoffs. In fact, no 2-5 team had ever rebounded to make the playoffs. But with Nick Chubb’s return in Week 8, Alex finally got a little luck to go his way, winning his next three games despite scores of 108.92, 108.68 and 94.22 points.
And that’s when Alex turned it on. In Week 11, Alex started both Barkley and Chubb for the first time since Week 5. Even better, it coincided with the Matthew Stafford trade for Leonard Fournette. As a result, over the last four weeks of the regular season, Alex had the third-best team in the league with a TW% of .682 while scoring 132.8 ppg.
Entering the playoffs as the three seed, Alex looked like one of the more dangerous contenders. But that’s when the injury bug bit again with both Fournette and Chris Godwin (arguably his two best players) going down to season-ending injuries. Add those injuries to earlier setbacks for Barkley, Chubb, fifth-round pick Gus Edwards (lost in the preseason) and Jerry Jeudy (missed Weeks 2-7) and you can see how Alex has faced more obstacles than anyone this season.
And yet… despite all that, he’s won eight of his last nine games with the only loss coming in Week 12 against Brandon. Orchestrating the greatest comeback in league history, Alex became the first owner of a 2-5 team to not only go on to make the playoffs but make the finals. The guy is unstoppable—a team of destiny—that has survived injuries, bad luck, more injuries and even Samantha in the playoffs. But now, the ultimate test awaits. If he can somehow knock off Beth Ann despite being down key starters, it would complete his Cinderella season.
The Prediction
According to the computer, Beth Ann now has a 69% chance to win her first championship.
Alex has overcome a lot this season, but asking him to upset Beth Ann will be his biggest challenge yet. She has the best team in the league, which is fully healthy with top-10 players at essentially every position, including defense. The only challenge for her this week might be Justin Jefferson, who will be playing without Kirk Cousins. But he’s obviously a must-start no matter who is at quarterback. Ditto for Alvin Kamara who struggled last week with Ian Book behind center. But these are first-world problems.
As for Alex, injuries to key starters plus Jerry Jeudy’s recent placement on the reserve/COVID-19 list have forced him into starting Jakobi Meyers and… (checks notes)… Dare Ogunbowale who is apparently the starter in Jacksonville after James Robinson tore his Achilles last week. Yeah, not ideal. That means Beth Ann should have the advantage at every single skill position with maybe the exception of QB where the “QB whisperer” will still have Jalen Hurts (QB5 on the season) on his side.
The computer sees Beth Ann as a significant favorite, giving her a 69% chance to come away with her first championship. And the ESPN projections agree, favoring Beth Ann by a whopping 23.4 points. I have to agree too. I mean, Beth Ann hasn’t scored fewer than 127 points in her last five games. And Alex hasn’t topped 117 since injuries to Fournette and Godwin. But Alex has faced longer odds this season, and yet he’s made it this far. He even beat Beth Ann in their matchup earlier this season, a Week 8 win that kickstarted his comeback. So perhaps he’s got one more miracle left in him.
Poop Bowl Preview
Greco and Whitney will face off in the first inaugural Poop Bowl.
Last and most definitely least, the inaugural Poop Bowl is upon us!
With losses in Week 16, Whitney and Greco will have the dishonor of playing in the first-ever Poop Bowl to determine the recipient of the last-place punishment. To get here, Whitney lost both of her games in the consolation ladder, first to Erik in Week 15 and then to Brandon in Week 16. Meanwhile, Greco won her Week 15 game against Brandon, but—because she was a bottom-two seed—had to win her Week 16 game as well. Because she lost to Josh, she fell back down to the bottom of the ladder. Now the loser of this game will officially be the Worst’s worst this season.
It’s hard to say if anyone is truly “deserving” of the Poop Bowl, but Whitney and Greco did finish 11th and 12th in the final Power Rankings. Whitney’s is the better team by TW%, but Greco is just one week removed from a 135.34-point effort—a total Whitney hasn’t hit since Week 7. Is it weird to say I may be watching this game more intently than the championship? Should be a good one.
