2021 Playoff Preview
The playoffs are here! And I’ve got the usual simulations plus predictions for who’s going to take home that elusive Worst League crown. But this year, I’m going to be honest. I have no clue what’s going to happen. That’s because with the rise of the omicron variant (get boosted everybody!), it’s hard to even know who is going to play.
As we enter Week 15 and the first week of the playoffs, the Rams, Browns and Washington Football Team have all had more than 20 players placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. And now a few games have been moved to Monday night and even Tuesday.
If there’s one thing predictable about fantasy football, it’s that it’s unpredictable. And it appears this year will be no different.
Gray will take on Nick and Alex will face Samantha in the first round of the playoffs.
As we do during the regular season, I’ve dropped these six teams into the computer and simulated the playoffs 10,000 times using their TW%. This is the result with the probability of each team advancing throughout the playoffs.
Beth Ann is a sigificant favorite with a 46% chance to take home her first championship.
So let’s break down this year’s contenders one team at a time, starting with the long shots and moving toward the favorites.
4. Gray: 4.0%
It’s a little unusual for the four seed (as opposed to the six seed) to have the worst odds to win the whole thing. But as we noted in the Week 14 Power Rankings, Gray’s team has been a little lucky this year and is actually the lowest of the playoff teams in the final Power Rankings, finishing eighth. In fact, it’s his second-worst team ever by TW%.
That’s because as we enter the playoffs, Gray is on a serious slide. Since Week 11, he has the second-worst team in the league, ranking 11th in TW% (.227) and scoring (97.3 ppg). In fact, since Week 7, he has five games in which he’s finished with a bottom-three score in the league. If not for his weekly prize in Week 10 against Beth Ann, we might wonder if Gray belongs in the playoffs at all.
Frankly, it’s been a rough year for Gray who has made some roster decisions that have not panned out. He traded away Austin Ekeler (RB2) and Leonard Fournette (RB3) and, in exchange, received Christian McCaffrey (who is out for the season) and Matthew Stafford, a backup to Patrick Mahomes. This team could have been much, much better if Gray had simply stood pat and banked on his draft.
But the silver lining, if there is one, is that Gray’s team has depth. He’s got a stud (if untrustworthy) QB in Patrick Mahomes, three solid RBs in Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrell Henderson and Michael Carter, and suddenly some actual WR depth. CeeDee Lamb leads this group, but Odell Beckham Jr. has come alive in Los Angeles since his trade to the Rams. And Terry McLaurin is also no slouch. With Kyle Pitts at TE, I have no doubt this team could win it all. It just needs to start putting all the pieces together, something it has been mostly unable to do for almost the entire second half of the season.
Usually the hunted, this year Gray is the hunter. In his league-leading eighth career playoff appearance, can Gray steal a third championship and his second in the last three years? Or will Nick, the team owner whose trade he so adamantly opposed, take him down in the quarterfinals?
3. Alex: 9.5%
The author of the greatest comeback in league history, Alex rebounded from a seemingly lost 2-5 start to win an improbable six of his final seven games and finish 8-6. With more points than Gray on the season, he rocketed all the way up to the three seed in the standings and will face his rival Samantha in the quarterfinals. And I kinda called it. Check out this final paragraph from Alex’s blurb in the Week 7 Power Rankings:
Luckily, Nick Chubb should be back in Week 8. And an injury to Miles Sanders means Kenneth Gainwell, fresh off the waiver wire, will be inserted into Alex’s lineup at flex. Even better, Jerry Jeudy, Alex’s sixth-round pick and team namesake is set to return from IR this week and will play for the first time since Week 1. So perhaps things are looking up for Alex. And he’ll need it. Because with five losses, he probably has to go 5-2 or maaaaybe 4-3 to make it into the playoffs. And that challenge starts right away with four straight games against teams in the top half of the Power Rankings. Let the comeback begin now.
Of all the playoff teams, Alex no doubt faced the most impediments to his success. He lost fifth-round pick Gus Edwards before the season started. Then Jerry Jeudy after one game. And finally, both Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb missed significant time.
But Alex was able to tread water until their return. And when they did, he turned it on. Since Week 11, he’s had the third-best team in the league in TW% (.682) and scoring (132.8 ppg), trailing only Beth Ann and Samantha. That’s also right around the time he acquired Leonard Fournette (RB3) in a trade with Gray. Now with Chubb, Barkley and Fournette at RB, they form a powerful trio to go along with Jalen Hurts, Chris Godwin and Tyler Lockett (who unfortunately has just been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list).
But perhaps the biggest hurdle to an eventual second championship for Alex and his first since 2015 is his fantasy kryptonite—Samantha. In six career matchups with Samantha, Alex is 1-5 with his only victory coming in Week 9 this year. And that includes two playoff losses in 2018 and 2019, the first of which was a historic upset of his Thanos squad (also in the 3/6 game).
This is now Alex’s sixth career playoff appearance, tying Brandon and Greco for second-most all time behind Gray. If it weren’t for the tough road with games against Samantha and Beth Ann (the third- and first-place teams in the final Power Rankings) his odds would be better. But even still, Alex will be a tough out who is finally healthy at just the right time.
6. Samantha 11.2%
Not bad for a six seed. As was mentioned in this week’s Power Rankings, Samantha had one of the unluckier teams in the league this season. Finishing third in the final Power Rankings with a TW% of .552, this is the best team of Samantha’s four-year career.
What attributed to her success this season? One of the more interesting drafts in the league. In fact, Samantha had some of the best and worst picks in the draft this season. After drafting Ezekiel Elliott with the sixth overall pick, she spent her second and third picks on Allen Robinson (WR78) and Calvin Ridley (WR80). Not good. But she made up for those busts with excellent picks later in the draft. That included James Conner (RB6) in the eighth round and Mike Williams (WR15) in the 10th.
Connor’s emergence, in particular, has been key to Samantha’s success, transforming her roster from a WR-led team in those early weeks (third in WR scoring through the first three weeks) to one whose strength now lies at RB (third in RB scoring over the last five).
As for her roster entering the playoffs, she’ll rely on a team that includes Elliott, Conner and Myles Gaskin plus Mike Williams and Brandin Cooks at WR. Also, don’t forget about Josh Allen who finished as QB1 through the regular season. With a tasty matchup against Alex, Samantha will hope to get revenge on her first-ever loss to him earlier this season.
With her third career playoff appearance in four years, Samantha is gunning for her first championship, having previously finished as high as third in 2018. And the bracket is on her side. Despite having the six seed, Samantha is technically the highest-ranked team in the final Power Rankings on her side of the bracket, ranking ahead of both Alex (fourth) and Geoff (sixth).
2. Geoff 14.7%
Tied for the most wins in his career, 2021 has been a great year for Geoff who rocketed to 9-2 and clinched the league’s first playoff spot with weeks to spare. But you might be surprised to find it’s not his best season ever. In fact, by TW%, 2021 only ranks seventh among 11 career seasons, trailing even his performance in the last two years when he missed the playoffs but finished above .500 in TW%. So yes, Geoff has been a little lucky this year in getting a first-round bye despite ranking sixth in the final Power Rankings.
But that only tells part of the story. The truth is it’s been a tale of two seasons for Geoff. Through the first 11 games, Geoff ranked third in TW% (.620) and scoring (125.4 ppg). If the season had stopped there, it would have been the best year of Geoff’s career by both metrics. But then the last three weeks happened. Inexplicably, Geoff’s team fell off a cliff. From Weeks 12-14, Geoff ranked last in TW% (.030) and scoring (72.4 ppg), and it wasn’t even close. His true record over that time was an astonishing 1-32, meaning he only beat one team in scoring over the last three weeks. That’s bad.
So what happened? Two single-digit games for Lamar Jackson. Ditto for Tyreek Hill who had a bye game mixed in. Adam Thielen got injured. The time ran out on the Mark Ingram bandaid once Alvin Kamara returned. And the weakness that’s been lurking there all season at RB2 and flex finally revealed itself. The truth is Miles Sanders (RB46) has barely been playable when healthy. And Devonta Smith (WR31) has been real hit or miss. So while everything was going right through the first 11 weeks, everything went wrong over the last three.
So the question is, which Geoff are we getting for the playoffs? The one that jumped out to a big lead in the standings? Or the one that can barely put up 80 points? I’m thinking the former. If anything, I think Geoff is due for a big game. But the injuries and the lack of depth is concerning. Lamar Jackson is hobbled with an ankle injury, and we don’t know when Thielen will return. Luckily, Geoff has a first-round bye. So these problems will get to wait for at least another week. But I wouldn’t be surprised if either Alex or Samantha give him a real challenge in the semifinals.
This is Geoff’s third playoff appearance and his first since his championship season in 2016. Can he capitalize with a second championship? Or will the regular season slide we saw to end the season end his season as well?
5. Nick 15.1%
This season has been defined by Nick. For the second year in a row, he got the first pick in the draft. But unlike previous seasons, Nick transformed himself into a force to be reckoned with. Formerly a set-it-and-forget-it team owner, Nick became one of the most active team owners in the league this season, leading the league in trades (three) and finishing second only to Brandon in total moves (60), which are trades plus acquisitions.
And boy were those trades impactful. He turned Tee Higgins and Rob Gronkowski into D’Andre Swift (a top-10 RB even after the most recent injury), wisely pivoted away from Christian McCaffrey in favor of Austin Ekeler just before McCaffrey’s season-ending injury, and then finally turned Damien Harris and DeAndre Hopkins into Dalvin Cook, again just before Hopkins’ season-ending injury. You couldn’t have made better trades if you already knew what was going to happen. It was like Nick was Biff from Back to the Future Part II with the sports almanac from the future in his back pocket.
And Biff is an apt comparison. Because Nick also transformed from lovable loser into dastardly villain, acquiring Cook from his wife in a deal that many thought was unfair, especially with Whitney unlikely to make the playoffs (which she didn’t). For awhile, it seemed fantasy karma was not on his side as Swift, Cook and Darren Waller all went down with injuries just as Nick (who has been unlucky this season in wins not to mention the Antonio Brown injury) needed a couple more just to make the playoffs.
But as fate would have it, Evil Nick—thanks in large part to Cook’s return in Week 14—would eek out a victory over Samantha and sneak his way into the playoffs. And that’s fitting. Because, love him or hate him, Nick has defined this season. And it wouldn’t be right if he didn't have a say in how this one plays out.
So as we enter the playoffs, he will face off against his new nemesis in Gray, the team owner who most vocally disapproved of the Dalvin Cook deal. He won’t have Swift or Waller in support (both are still out with injury), but Cook, Ekeler and that guy Cooper Kupp (WR1) will have something to say about it. Can the forces of good prevail and stop Nick from achieving his first playoff win in only his second career appearance? Or will Evil Nick get the last laugh?
1. Beth Ann 45.6%
While Nick has taken up all the oxygen this season, Beth Ann has quietly flown under the radar. But her accomplishments should not be taken for granted.
This season, she leads the league in wins (nine), TW% (.721), scoring (131.8 ppg), receptions (28.9 per game) and weekly prizes (three). And while Nick dominated the Power Rankings for the first part of the season, Beth Ann took over in Week 11 and never looked back, leading the rankings a total of five out of 14 weeks.
By historical comparisons, this team is near the top. In fact, there are only four other teams in league history with a better TW%. They are:
Gray 2016 (.808 TW%)
Alex 2018 (.794 TW%)
Gray 2011 (.787 TW%)
Greco 2013 (.731 TW%)
That’s Gray’s GOAT squad, Alex’s Thanos team, Gray’s first team ever, which reeled off a record nine wins in a row en route to an 11-2 record (still the best all time), and finally Greco’s team from 2013, which is the best team ever fielded in defense of a championship. Of course, the elephant in the room here is that none of those teams went on to win the championship. If Beth Ann is able to do so, she could have an argument to be the best team of all time.
Helping her in her quest will be one of the best WR groups we’ve ever seen. Currently, Beth Ann starts three top-8 WRs in Justin Jefferson (WR2), Ja’Marr Chase (WR7) and Diontae Johnson (WR8). They will complement the third overall pick in the draft, Alvin Kamara, who is RB12 despite missing four games this season, and David Montgomery who has been averaging 14.1 ppg since his return in Week 9. Plus, don’t forget about Mark Andrews, this season’s TE1 ahead of Travis Kelce and Aaron Rodgers who is quietly putting up an MVP-caliber season of his own. This team has had some of the best injury luck this season, but there just aren't any weaknesses.
That probably explains why Beth Ann is such a heavy favorite. The computer gives her an astounding 45.6% chance of not only winning her first-ever playoff game but coming home with a championship. By comparison, last year as the one seed, she had just a 29% chance. The year before, Josh (who was dominant all season) had a 41% chance. And even Alex’s Thanos team in 2018 had just a 38% chance according to the computers. In fact, since we’ve had the computer simulate the playoffs, this is the highest odds a favorite has ever been given. It may be the biggest favorite we've seen since Gray’s GOAT team from 2016.
Of course, we all know what happened to that team, taken out in the first round by one of the worst playoff teams in league history. Anything can happen in fantasy, and that’s why we play the games.
A Final Word about the Poop Bowl
Of course, these six team owners won’t be the only ones with something on the line these last three weeks. The other six non-playoff teams will also be hoping to avoid the Poop Bowl. For a full description of how it works, make sure to check out the season preview, which has all the details on the consolation ladder. The big thing you need to know is that this week, the winners of the games between Josh vs. Jess and Erik vs. Whitney will be safe. Plus, as we move through the playoffs, I’ll make sure to let you know when you’ve been “eliminated” from Poop Bowl contention.
That’s it for the preview. Good luck to all in the playoffs!
