Week 11 Power Rankings
Nick was the lovable loser of the Worst League. And I mean that in the best possible way. The way that people love to root for the Cubs or the Browns or the Texas Longhorns (ouch…) but know that it almost always ends in disaster. That’s Nick. Or at least it was.
Before the season, this is what I wrote in the draft preview:
“Playfully gunning for the title of the Worst’s worst, Nick achieved his goal…. With a true record of 29-114, Nick finished with the worst TW% (.203) in league history. Not only that, but he was also the first team owner to go 1-12 in a season with his only win coming against Geoff in Week 7.
It’s no secret that Nick is here for a good time. In 10 years, he has just two winning seasons, including five seasons with four or fewer wins. If we set Whitney aside because she has just one season in the league, Nick ranks last in TW% (.421) and scoring average (84.7 ppg) and has only appeared in the playoffs once with zero wins. And like Greco, Beth Ann and Whitney, I would characterize his activity as set-it-and-forget-it, averaging fewer than six moves per season.”
Apparently, that struck a nerve. Or maybe it was the introduction of the league’s first-ever punishment. Whatever it was, this year has been very different for Nick.
This season, Nick won the first two weekly prizes and never looked back. He jumped to the top of the Power Rankings and stayed there for nine out of the first 10 weeks. In fact, you might be surprised to know that Nick has been so dominant this season, his nine weeks atop the Power Rankings are more than Brandon, Geoff, Erik, Samantha and Whitney have for their entire careers…combined. And that’s in 39 total seasons.
It’s also the most active Nick has ever been with a total of 42 free agency pickups (second in the league) and three trades (tied for first). That’s more moves than he’s made in the last four years combined. And they have been savvy, shrewd moves. He drafted well, ranks third in the league in points from free agency despite a routinely-low waiver order, and has improved his roster through trade turning Tee Higgins, Rob Gronkowksi and an injured Christian McCaffrey into D’Andre Swift and Austin Ekeler among others.
Perhaps all those losses, a league-leading 89 of them and counting, finally inspired a change. Like a switch being flipped, Nick was suddenly a force to be reckoned with. And yet thanks to the worst luck in the league this season, the prospect of the playoffs was starting to slip through his fingers. Despite all the work, all the late-night waiver claims, all those myriad trade requests, Nick was still below .500. Still on the outside of playoff projections. Still a “loser.”
And that’s when he snapped. 😡
Enter Evil Nick—a fantasy fiend so villainous, he was willing to sacrifice the person he loved most for a taste of glory. In what can only be described as the most surprising heel turn in Worst League history, Nick thieved his wife’s best player, Dalvin Cook—the second overall pick in this year’s draft—for Damien Harris and DeAndre Hopkins (injured and on bye). It was perhaps the league’s most controversial trade joining the likes of Carson Wentz for Gardner Minshew (2019), Arian Foster for Sidney Rice and Eric Decker (2011) or even Adam Vinatieri for the Cardinals D/ST (2015). Yeah, that last one actually was hugely controversial.
What followed was a frenzy on the group chat. Nick and Whitney defended the trade as fair and benefitting both team owners. Whitney gets two starters for the price of one and Nick upgrades at RB. As Nick pointed out, if you look at their season-long numbers, they’re not so dissimilar. But on the other side, you had many wondering if something untoward was going on. Or at the very least, something that might tilt the balance of the league just before the playoffs. At its worst, Whitney was giving her away her best player to her husband with a better chance of winning a championship just weeks before the trade deadline.
Ultimately, it culminated in an unprecedented, league-wide vote on Thanksgiving. The result? Six in favor. Six against. Given the tie, the deal passed.
And yes, I voted to approve it. Because I believe on principle that we should trust each other to decide what’s “best” for our teams. But that doesn't mean I think the deal was balanced. And I did wonder if there comes a point at which the league has to step in for the sake of competitive balance. What happens if someone wants to trade Jonathan Taylor for the Jets D/ST? There is a line. There has to be. But where do you draw that line? And who gets to decide? I guess that’s up to each of us.
For me, partly because of the deal that was struck earlier this season between Gray and Whitney (Terry McLaurin for Adrian Peterson and Emmanuel Sanders), I felt it would be unfair for Gray to get a good deal and Nick not to have that same chance. Even though the difference here was more stark, I could still squint and see a future where Whitney benefits from the extra WR if DeAndre Hopkins is healthy. And maybe Damien Harris comes close to Dalvin Cook’s production. Plus, we’ve never vetoed a deal before.
Now, we are left to deal with the consequences. Those consequences are three top-10 RBs—Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook and D’Andre Swift—who would likely all go in the first round if we were to redraft today but are now on the same team. And joining them on that team, an asterisk. That if Nick wins a championship, it will be in part because of this controversial deal rejected by half the league as unfair. And the irony being that his team was probably good enough to win without it.
Nick may win. But at what cost? Loser, no more. But lovable? Maybe less so. 😉 In the end, is it better to be feared or loved? We’re about to find out.
The Scoreboard
Alex and Jess picked up key wins against Nick and Brandon. Beth Ann won the weekly prize.
Yes, Geoff ran his winning streak to six games. And yes, Beth Ann won her second weekly prize of the season. But the biggest wins of Week 11 belonged to Alex and Jess. By defeating Nick, Alex (at 6-5) is now in the playoffs if they started today. And Jess (also 6-5) would join him and the rest of the Big Five (minus Nick) there, following arguably her and Jonathan Taylor's best performance of the season.
Gray, no doubt, clipped Josh’s sails, dashing Fields of (Playoff) Dreams in a low-scoring affair. And finally, Whitney put an end to her nightmarish six-game losing streak, defeating Greco to keep herself very much in the playoff hunt. This week’s losers included Erik, Josh, Greco, Brandon, Nick and Samantha, though Samantha played well in defeat, finishing with a top-four score.
With three games of regular season to go, Geoff (9-2) and Gray (7-4) both lead the pack in wins. They are trailed by Beth Ann, Jess, Samantha and Alex (all 6-5). Not far behind at 5-6 are Nick, Josh and Whitney. Finally, Erik and Brandon (both 4-7) and Greco (3-8) bring up the rear.
Power Rankings
Thanks to her second weekly prize of the season, Beth Ann has wrested control of the Worst League away from Nick. And to do it in a week when her star RB, Alvin Kamara, was out yet again with injury, is especially impressive. This is now her second week atop the Power Rankings this season (previously she was #1 in Week 5).
As for the rest of the league, Jess and Alex move up following their big wins. Meanwhile, Erik tumbles down to eighth, his lowest ranking since Week 7, and Josh slips one spot to 10th, the lowest he’s been since his panic-inducing Week 1. Finally, though she drops one spot to sixth, Samantha’s TW% actually improved this week.
Alright, let's take each team one by one as we do every week from first to worst.
Beth Ann knocks Nick off the top spot in the rankings for the second time this season.
1. Beth Ann (▲1)
6-5, .678 TW%, 128.3 ppg
Last week, we wrote this about Beth Ann:
“I might just consider this the calm before the storm. That’s because Beth Ann, who is the only team owner that has really challenged Nick for the top spot in the Power Rankings this season, may soon be back to full strength. … Remember, before the bye weeks, Beth Ann was nearly unstoppable, finishing as the runner-up to the weekly prize three weeks in a row. Assuming health (Kamara is expected to be out again in Week 11), I think a big finish is coming.”
That big finish started in Week 11 as Beth Ann won her second weekly prize of the season, scoring 146.7 points, the most by any team owner over the last three weeks. But what was most impressive, as we mentioned above, was that she did it without Alvin Kamara. In fact her RBs (David Montgomery and Kenyan Drake) totaled just 11.6 points, the fewest she’s scored from the RB position this season. But that just goes to show how strong her team is at the other positions, especially WR. Her trio of Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Diontae Johnson are all top-12 at their position in points per game and scored a combined 73.3 points in Week 11, which was more than Erik’s entire team.
When, and if, Kamara returns (he has now missed three games with an MCL sprain, including this week’s game against the Bills), Beth Ann’s team has the chance to go to an elite level. She’s got Aaron Rodgers (assuming his toe holds up), Kamara and David Montgomery (the latter of whom is now healthy and back from injury), Mark Andrews (TE2) and an elite group of pass-catchers that rank first in the league, averaging 53.4 ppg. That’s a recipe for a potential championship.
2. Nick (▼1)
5-6, .661 TW%, 130.4 ppg
We’ve already devoted a lot of space in this week’s writeup to Nick and his trade for Dalvin Cook. So I’ll keep it short for his blurb. Looking ahead, Nick is still currently projected to make the playoffs. But it’s close. Again, the good news is that he leads all team owners in points. The bad news is he trails six other teams in wins. Luckily, he still controls his own destiny thanks to games against Beth Ann and Samantha, two other team owners with whom he is competing for a playoff spot. The computer gives him a 70% chance to make it in.
3. Geoff
9-2, .620 TW%, 125.4 ppg
Congratulations are in order for Geoff, who just officially clinched the league’s first playoff spot. Not only that, but at 9-2, Geoff has now tied his career high for regular season wins, equaling the nine he achieved in 2011. With three games still to go, this is setting up to be Geoff’s best season yet. He’s on pace to have the best TW% of his career and needs 20 more true wins to surpass his best year ever in 2016 when he finished with a TW% of .615 en route to his first championship.
With one more win, he would also tie his longest win streak of seven wins from 2011. But to do it, he’ll have to defeat Josh without Tyreek Hill (on bye) or useful fantasy fill-in Mark Ingram who was out this week with an injury of his own. The good news? Miles Sanders, Geoff’s third-round pick, is back. Though he was disappointing before his injury, any boost Sanders could provide would be gravy for Geoff’s already stellar team.
4. Gray
7-4, .537 TW%, 120.0 ppg
Patrick Mahomes, I thought we fixed you. Oh well. Gray survived a return to mediocrity for the Chiefs QB who scored just 7.5 points in Week 11. And he wasn’t the only one. Overall, it was a down week for Gray who saw injuries to two key players in Michael Carter (ankle) and CeeDee Lamb (concussion). As a result, Gray totaled just 102.9 points, the third-fewest he’s scored this season. But most importantly, Gray got the win, improving his record to 7-4 and is now the only team besides Geoff with at least seven wins.
Gray’s not a lock for the playoffs, but he’s pretty close. The computer gives him a 98% chance, including an 82% chance to make the playoffs even if he never wins another game. (Keep reading to see the full numbers for every team.) But you can bet he’ll still be gunning for one of two first-round byes. In addition to Geoff, he’s currently the favorite to get one with a 45% chance. But Beth Ann (35%) is not far behind. Though she trails him in wins, she leads him in points by a sizable margin. And this week, Gray faces Samantha without Patrick Mahomes and Clyde Edwards-Helaire who are on bye or injured starters Carter and Lamb. Last year, Gray lost the bye at the last minute to Jess. Can he hold on this time or will Beth Ann (or one of the other six-win team owners) catch him?
5. Jess (▲2)
6-5, .521 TW%, 120.0 ppg
Jonathan Taylor...sheesh! Taylor’s 53.4 points in Week 11 were the most by any player this season and the second-most all time. Coincidentally, the current record belongs to another player formerly owned by Jess—Tyreek Hill, who scored 57.9 points in Week 12 of 2020. The win is Jess’ third straight and improves her record to 6-5, which is quite the comeback for a team owner that started the season 1-3 and routinely ranked in the bottom three of the Power Rankings as recently as Week 8.
In fact, since Taylor’s first multiple-TD game in Week 5, Jess has the best team in the league. Over the last seven weeks, she’s 5-2 with a TW% of .712 while averaging a league-leading 130.0 ppg. She is also one of only two team owners (the other being Nick) who ranks in the top three at RB and WR scoring in that time. Were it not for a disastrous 1-3 start in which she ranked 11th in the Power Rankings, Jess would be much higher in this list.
And if all of that sounds familiar, it’s because Jess did practically the same thing last year, ranking 10th in the Power Rankings after four weeks, then first from Week 5 on. That’s right. No one flips the switch like Jess. And if Gray’s not careful, she just might steal his first-round bye for the second year in a row.
6. Samantha (▼1)
6-5, .512 TW%, 120.0 ppg
It wasn’t the result she wanted. But Samantha’s team looked much improved in Week 11. With 133.06 points scored, it was her highest output since Week 5. And key in that performance was the play of Mike Williams who likewise had his first game of 20+ points in six weeks. If we can see more “boom” than “bust” weeks from him moving forward, that’s a good sign for Samantha.
Unfortunately, the loss to Beth Ann drops her from the list of projected playoff teams for the first time since Week 4. Still, she maintains a better-than-average chance to make the playoffs (69%) and is neck-and-neck with Gray and Jess in points. In fact, after 11 weeks, just 0.7 points separate the three. As a result, Gray with one more win and Jess with the tiebreaker advantage are being favored in computer simulations. But Samantha is right there.
7. Alex (▲1)
6-5, .504 TW%, 113.3 ppg
Make it four wins in a row for Alex with the biggest win of all coming in Week 11. By defeating Nick, Alex is now above .500 for the first time since Week 3. He is surging following a 2-5 start with a finally-healthy RB room. Believe it or not, Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley both played and made it through a full game for Alex for the first time since Week 4. It’s a miracle!
Coincidentally, Week 4 also happens to be the last time Alex topped 110 points. It was no surprise then that with Chubb, Barkley and new trade acquisition Leonard Fournette at flex this week, Alex scored a season-high 136.18 points with the most points from the RB position he’s seen all season. Moving forward, I think that trio makes for a powerful core to go along with Jalen Hurts, Chris Godwin and Tyler Lockett that could easily help Alex to the playoffs.
And the computer agrees. In this week’s Playoff Picture, Alex’s playoff chances jumped the most from 33% last week to 70% this week, which means he’s currently a projected playoff team for the first time since Week 4. See the full picture below.
Alex’s chances of making the playoffs jumped 37% in Week 11.
But even though 70% sounds pretty good on paper, Alex is no sure thing. He, Nick and Samantha are all neck-and-neck, and each has their own advantage over the other.
Samantha currently leads with more wins than Nick and more points than Alex, but she’s got the toughest schedule of the three.
Nick has the best team by TW% and the most points, but he trails the others in the all-important wins category.
And though he leads Nick in wins and has the easiest remaining schedule in the league with games against Brandon, Erik and Josh (all in the bottom half of the rankings), Alex trails both Nick and Samantha by 187.8 and 73.26 points, respectively—not an insignificant margin with just three weeks to go.
So for now, consider Alex a bubble team that, if he makes the playoffs, could certainly pull off a couple of upsets and possibly something more. With Barkley and Chubb healthy, anything is possible.
8. Erik (▼3)
4-7, .446 TW%, 114.5 ppg
Okay, before we get to Erik, let’s note that the top seven all have a 69% chance or greater of making the playoffs. They all have at least six wins or, in the case of Nick, a significant points lead. In all likelihood, the six playoff teams will come from this group. And in fact, of the six teams projected to make the playoffs with three games to go last year, all six did so.
But that doesn’t mean this last group of five is out of it by any stretch of the imagination. And that starts with Erik. Flying high after two straight weekly prizes, Erik followed that up with two of his worst games of 2021. This week, he scored a season-low 72.36 points. And for the first time this season, the Joe Mixon rule was broken! That’s right. Mixon scored more than 15 points (24.3 in fact), but Erik still lost. Of course, it didn’t help that Erik accidentally started an inactive Cordarrelle Patterson.
At 4-7 and two games back of the current six seed with three games to go, Erik faces an uphill battle to make it back to the playoffs. The Playoff Picture gives him just a 5% chance. But it helps that he’s the best of the bottom five by TW% and leads them all in points. Not only that, but he leads Alex in points too.
So to get a better sense of Erik’s chances, let’s bring back one of my favorite new additions from last season—the Wall of Destiny. For those that don’t remember, the Wall of Destiny is a chart that tells you what your playoff chances are based on how many games you win the rest of the season. Rather than reducing your playoff odds to a single number, it gives you a better idea of how many games you need to win and whether or not you control your own destiny.
Geoff has clinched. And Gray, Beth Ann, Jess, Samantha, Alex and Nick control their own destinies.
As you can see, teams with a 100% in the leftmost column are locks for the playoffs. So far, that’s just Geoff. Even if he doesn’t win another game, he’s in. Meanwhile, teams with a 100% in the rightmost column control their own destiny. If they win out, they’re in, no matter what else happens. Right now that includes the top seven teams. Finally, 0% indicates the point at which a team would be eliminated. For example, assuming his current standing in the points tiebreaker stays the same, Brandon has to go 3-0 to have a chance to make the playoffs. If he loses one more game, he’s out.
Some other quick observations:
Gray only needs to win one more game to clinch.
Beth Ann and Jess would clinch with two more wins but are still likely to make the playoffs by finishing 1-2.
Samantha, Alex and Nick are in if they win out but are in pretty good shape if they’re able to go 2-1. It gets dicier at 1-2.
After that, Whitney and Josh need to win out plus get a little bit of help. They’re not eliminated with a loss, but their chances go way down.
And finally, Erik, Brandon and Greco are long shots. They need to win out and get lots of help, which means needing the teams in front of them to lose.
To bring this back around to Erik, while his odds are just 5% overall, they improve to 36.8% if he can win his last three games against Josh, Gray and Jess. And if he can win two out of three, he does technically have the slimmest of chances to make the playoffs as a 6-8 team. But if I’m Erik, I wouldn’t count on that. Better to hope Mixon can keep putting up big numbers instead.
9. Brandon
4-7, .438 TW%, 111.4 ppg
I have to say, this week just broke my spirit. As Jonathan Taylor racked up touchdown after touchdown after touchdown after touchdown, I slipped deeper and deeper into an eventual acceptance that I am probably not going to be making the playoffs this year. Fantasy football is a fickle and humbling game. Thanks Jess.
Shifting back to third-person… After five straight games with scores in the top half of the league, Brandon scored just 103.94 points in Week 11, his fewest since Week 5. Dak Prescott scored a season-low 2.64 points. And worse, A.J. Brown suffered hand and chest injuries during the game and has been placed on IR, Brandon’s second Tennessee Titan to suffer such a fate this season. That means Brown won’t see Brandon’s lineup again until at least the fantasy playoffs. And based on Brandon’s 4-7 record, that’s not likely.
To make the playoffs, Brandon needs to win out. And even then, he has just a 10.8% chance to make it in. But no matter the odds, he (and I) are not giving up yet. Maybe, just maybe, the team that was known for an unexpected comeback in the playoffs just one season ago can somehow summon the strength to do it again.
10. Josh (▼1)
5-6, .413 TW%, 107.3 ppg
Josh is the anti-Jess. Just as she’s risen, he’s fallen off. After starting 3-1, Josh has now lost five of his last seven games and ranks 11th in TW% (.338) and scoring (99.5 ppg) in that time. This week, he suffered a critical loss to Gray in which he scored just 77.0 points. That’s not only a season low, it’s the fewest points he’s scored since Week 5 of 2019. That’s over two years ago.
The good news? He’s still 5-6. And though he trails pretty much everybody except Whitney and Greco in points, he’s still in this thing with more wins than Erik or Brandon and just as many as Nick. With three more wins, he could get to 8-6 and then maybe the points tiebreaker won’t matter. The Wall of Destiny gives him a 95.2% chance of making the playoffs if he wins out. But he’ll have to beat Geoff, Jess and Alex to do it. Hurry back Kyler Murray and Aaron Jones!
11. Whitney
5-6, .372 TW%, 103.1 ppg
Ring the victory bell! Our long national nightmare is over. Whitney has won a game for the first time since Week 4, ending a six-game losing streak. Thanks to a season-high 22.5 points from (ahem!) Dalvin Cook, Whitney outlasted a serious challenge from Greco who nearly beat Whitney despite only starting eight active players once Marquise Brown was declared inactive against the Bears. Had Greco started Jarvis Landry or Robby Anderson, Whitney would have lost.
But a win is a win and Whitney improves her record to 5-6. Unfortunately, her recent losing streak has put her in the hole in terms of points as she ranks last in the league with 1,134.20 points scored. That means she trails her nearest challenger Alex by about 100 points and Samantha and Jess by about 200. Given that huge gap, she’s practically in must-win territory, needing to win out to make the playoffs. If she loses just one more game, her odds drop to just 4.7%.
On the bright side, Whitney did make history this week by becoming the first team owner in league history to win a game while starting two TEs.
12. Greco
3-8, .298 TW%, 106.2 ppg
Speaking of Greco, her loss to Whitney all but eliminates her from the playoffs. No, she didn’t make the playoffs in a single simulation. But if we assume she’s somehow able to score a truckload of points over the next three weeks and give herself the tiebreaker advantage, her chances jump to 0.17% or 17 in 10,000 simulations. So we can’t say definitively she’s out at this point. But it’s not looking good. (Cue the Jim Carey meme from Dumb & Dumber—“so you’re telling me there’s a chance.”)
What we can say for sure is that if she is somehow able to make the playoffs, she won’t be getting a first-round bye. Being four games back of Gray, she can’t possibly catch him (or Geoff) with only three games to go. So that’s why she gets the red square up top in the second-to-last column of the Playoff Picture. Also, like with Brandon, if she loses one more game, she’ll be eliminated.
Of course, we play this game for more than playoff glory. We play it for pride. And Greco has never lost more than 10 games in a season. Now with a 14-game regular season, she could become just the fourth team to lose at least 11 games in a season, joining Trevor in 2017 and Erik in 2019 with 11 losses and Nick in 2020 with 12. And if pride doesn’t do it for you, think about the Poop Bowl. You definitely don’t want to win that thing. Better to keep your foot on the gas than pass it. See what I did there?
Looking Ahead to Week 12
Normally, this is where we would look ahead to the next week’s matchups. But given that “next week” is already over, we’ll just skip this section and say that given the results we’ve already seen, it’s going to make for an even more interesting finish to the regular season. So stay tuned. We’re in the home stretch!
