Week 12 Power Rankings
Call it fantasy karma.
In the week immediately following the controversial Dalvin Cook trade, Evil Nick lost three key players to injury, including Cook, himself. First, D’Andre Swift went down with an AC joint sprain of the shoulder. Then Darren Waller suffered an IT band strain in his knee. And finally, Dalvin Cook had to be carted off the field after fumbling and dislocating his shoulder.
The fantasy gods are real. And they are angry.
We may have voted 6-6 to allow the trade. But the fantasy gods clearly were not in favor, removing Cook plus others from Nick’s lineup for the foreseeable future. Specifically Swift appears likely to miss multiple weeks. Though Lions coach Dan Campbell recently said he’s “maybe a week away” from returning. Waller is officially “week-to-week.” Cook is expected to miss the next two games with a plan of returning in Week 15 against the Bears. And just for good measure, Antonio Brown (who has been dealing with an ankle injury for weeks) was suspended for three games for misrepresenting his vaccination status and is now out until at least Week 16. That’s four starters gone from Nick’s ideal lineup. Brutal.
Somehow, despite the injuries, he got the win over Greco in Week 12. But at 6-6, Nick still needs to win at least one more game and possibly two to make it into the playoffs. And with games against Beth Ann and Samantha, the first- and fourth-place teams in this week’s Power Rankings, it’s not going to be easy (though Beth Ann’s accidental start of an inactive Alvin Kamara on Thursday night is a big help).
But…if Evil Nick can somehow survive this gauntlet, it’s possible he could have Swift, Cook and Waller all back for the first round of the playoffs with the chance that Brown returns in the semifinals. As Miracle Max from The Princess Bride says, he’s “only mostly dead.”
It’s like a horror movie where the monster appears to be defeated, but rises up once again once our heroes’ backs are turned. If the death blow doesn’t come over the next two weeks, there may be nothing anyone can do to stop Evil Nick. Even the fantasy gods.
The Scoreboard
Just as they did in Week 8, Brandon and Erik led the league in scoring.
Just when you think there’s daylight between the league’s top and bottom teams, a week like this happens to close the gap. What can I say? It’s been an extremely competitive season. So of course, this week, two seven-loss teams led the league in scoring.
Brandon won his first weekly prize since 2019. And Erik showcased his boom-or-bust potential. But the big winners of Week 12 were Samantha, who defeated Gray and saw the biggest increase in playoff chances this week, and Nick, who survived injuries to three key players to end a three-game losing streak and place himself back among the ranks of projected playoff teams while officially eliminating Greco in the process.
And just because this league is crazy, Geoff saw an end to his six-game winning streak with the lowest score we’ve seen this season. That’s good news for Josh who is in better shape than you think (more on that below).
So as we enter Week 13, the official standings look like this:
9-3: Geoff
7-5: Beth Ann, Samantha, Gray
6-6: Nick, Jess, Alex, Josh
5-7: Erik, Brandon, Whitney
3-9: Greco
Power Rankings
Beth Ann remains on top for the second straight week and the third time this season. Meanwhile, Samantha’s convincing win over Gray helps push her up two spots into fourth, the highest she’s been since Week 7. Jess also rises one spot despite her loss to Erik while Gray falls two spots to sixth and is hovering right around .500 in TW%. Finally, Brandon jumps one spot to eighth, the highest he’s been this season. And just to illustrate how close the teams are in the rankings, just six true wins separate the teams in fourth (Samantha and Jess) and eighth place (Erik and Brandon).
Given that there are just two weeks left in the regular season, we’ve got a detailed breakdown for each team owner, from first to worst, of what they need to do to make (or miss) the playoffs. Enjoy!
Beth Ann leads the Power Rankings for the third time and is on pace for the best year of her career.
1. Beth Ann
7-5, .689 TW%, 128.3 ppg
Beth Ann has finished in the top three in scoring in three of the last four weeks and seven out of 12 weeks overall. This week, she poured it on with 127.84 points, more than doubling up Whitney despite yet another ho-hum day from her RBs (just 15.4 combined points from David Montgomery and Kenyan Drake). What can I say? It helps when you get 25 points from the Dolphins D/ST, second-most from a defense this season.
Most importantly, she got the win and even extended her lead over Nick atop the Power Rankings. And don’t look now! But she has even closed the gap for total points scored. Currently, she trails Nick by just 0.98 points on the season. And they play each other this week too. With two games to go and Alvin Kamara’s return seemingly imminent (though she did start him on Thursday despite being declared inactive 🤦♂️), I would not be surprised to see Beth Ann finish first in TW% and scoring after finishing second in both categories last season.
At 7-5 with nearly 100 points more than her next-closest competitor, Beth Ann technically has not clinched a spot in the playoffs. But she’s very close. The computer gives her a 99% chance to make it in. In the 67 nightmare scenarios where she did miss the playoffs, she had to lose out to finish 7-7. Then needed both Jess and Alex to win out, resulting in five or six eight-win teams with Nick beating her in the tiebreaker in some instances. It’s possible, but I just don’t see it.
The far more likely scenario is that Beth Ann wins at least one of her last two games against Nick or Brandon, clinches and then wins the second of two first-round byes on a points tiebreaker. The computer gives her a 51% chance at a bye, which would be her second in the last two years.
2. Nick
6-6, .636 TW%, 128.4 ppg
In Week 12, Nick picked up a monumental win over Greco. I mean, HUGE. With a team this high in the rankings, you wouldn’t think a win over the league’s last-place team would be such a big deal. But for Nick to survive injuries to three key players and still pick up the win against a team with potentially explosive pass-catchers like Greco’s is no small feat. But thanks to DK Metcalf’s measly 2.3 points on Monday night, Nick survived and is now back at .500 on the season.
As a result, his playoff chances jumped to 76%. Not only that, but if he does make it there, his odds of a first-round bye rose from 8% to 19%. That gives him the fifth-best odds of making the playoffs behind Geoff, Beth Ann, Samantha and Gray who are all above 90%.
Samantha saw the biggest increase in playoff chances in Week 12 with a 30% jump.
If we assume the four teams with at least seven wins all make the playoffs, that leaves five real contenders for the final two spots—Nick, Jess, Alex, Josh and Erik. (We’ll talk about the bottom three later.)
Of those five, Nick has a clear advantage—points. He leads those other four challengers by at least 109.62 points. With just two games to go, they’d have to make up 50+ ppg on Nick, which is just not likely.
Given that, he’s a lock if he wins out and probably just needs one more win to get in. At that point, the points would take over and he’d be in. BUT…there were a small number of simulations where Nick finished 7-7 and did not make the playoffs. In those instances, it was because both Jess and Alex won out, resulting in six teams with at least eight wins. In that case, the points would not come into play. Kinda like what happened to Josh last season that caused him to miss the playoffs.
Overall, this seems like a pretty rosy picture for Nick. But I do see storm clouds on the horizon. That’s because Nick has the toughest schedule remaining with games against Beth Ann and Samantha (two top-four teams in this week’s rankings). And worse, Nick will be playing without Dalvin Cook, D’Andre Swift and Darren Waller for at least one if not both games. Plus, now that Antonio Brown will definitively continue to miss time (now because of misrepresenting his vaccination status), suddenly the departure of DeAndre Hopkins is a real problem. Can Austin Ekeler and Cooper Kupp drag Evil Nick’s lifeless body to the playoffs until he can regain full strength? Or will Nick lose both of his last two games, in which case he would almost certainly be eliminated? It’s going to get interesting.
3. Geoff
9-3, .568 TW%, 120.0 ppg
Wake me up when the playoffs get here. That’s what Geoff and his players have to be thinking as he clinched last week and evidently snoozed his way to the lowest score by any team owner this season. In fact, his 60.6 points were the fewest he’s scored in a game since Week 12 of 2018—that’s three years ago!
But I’m not worried. Lamar Jackson and Najee Harris, both top-10 at their position, had their worst (or second-worst) games of the season. And Tyreek Hill was on bye. Geoff is still third in the Power Rankings and still the same team owner who just won six straight games before this week’s loss to Josh. For now, he’s hibernating for the playoffs.
Frankly, all that’s at stake for Geoff these next two weeks is a first-round bye. With a two-game lead on Beth Ann, Samantha and Gray with two games to go, he has a 98% chance of getting one of those two byes. If he wins one more game, he gets it. And even if he loses out, the only way he would lose the bye is if both Beth Ann and Samantha won out. Ditto for Gray, but he’d have to pass Geoff in points to steal his spot.
T4. Samantha (▲2)
7-5, .530 TW%, 120.4 ppg
Big week for Samantha who defeated Gray handily without James Conner to improve her record to 7-5. Last week, it was Mike Williams. This week, it was the all-around play of her entire roster, including above-average games for Josh Allen (26.7 points), Myles Gaskin (19.2), Ezekiel Elliott (16.9), T.J. Hockenson (12.5) and the Patriots D/ST (12.0). She now ranks tied for fourth in TW% and third in points and has a roster that includes the QB1, three top-14 RBs and some boom-or-bust WRs that can elevate her ceiling on any given night.
By defeating Gray, Samantha’s playoff chances skyrocketed from 69% all the way up to a virtual lock at 99%. At this point, she just needs one more win to clinch a spot in the playoffs. And even if she loses out, the computer still gives her a 93% chance to make it in thanks to the fact that she ranks ahead of everyone but Nick and Beth Ann in points. In the instances where she did miss, it’s because Alex and Jess won out and Nick beat her with the tiebreaker—again, just less than 1% of the time.
But…the computer assumes Samantha maintains her points advantage. And unlike with Nick and Beth Ann, Samantha only holds a slim lead over Jess (-13.58 points) and Gray (-40.82). Alex (89.0) and Josh (-154.16) are less of a threat. But even Erik (-37.56) and Brandon (-42.88)—long shots though they may be—are not far behind. If we erase Samantha’s points advantage and assume she gets caught by all of the above teams except for Alex and Josh, which is reasonably possible, her playoff chances drop to 87% overall. And in the simulations where she loses out to finish 7-7, she only makes the playoffs 34% of the time. In other words, she’s not a sure thing just yet.
All that being said, I really like Samantha’s chances. And the biggest reason why is that she owns Alexander Mattison. With Dalvin Cook expected to miss the next two games, Mattison is just the shot in the arm Samantha needs to finish strong in games against Whitney and Nick. And if she does really well, Samantha is the team owner most likely to steal the second of two first-round byes from Beth Ann.
T4. Jess (▲1)
6-6, .530 TW%, 119.2 ppg
Despite her fourth-straight game in the top half of the league in scoring, Jess picked up her first loss since Week 8 in a surprising upset by Erik. Despite solid games from all the usual studs, Tyler Higbee (1.3 points) and Alex Collins (1.7) were big-time duds. And this time, Jonathan Taylor could not pull another four touchdowns out of his hat. As a result, the loss drops Jess to 6-6 and puts her firmly on the playoff bubble.
So far, every team we’ve discussed has either clinched or is very close. Now that we’re getting into wishy-washy territory, let’s bring up the Wall of Destiny (🗣️destiny…destiny…destiny…).
Seven teams still control their own destiny and an eighth (Alex) is very close.
As you can see, Geoff has clinched, and Beth Ann and Samantha are above 90% even if they never win another game. In addition to those three, four others still control their own destiny—Gray, Nick, Jess and Josh. If any of those four win out, they’re in. Since this is Jess’ blurb, let’s take a longer look at her. (We’ll get to the others in their sections.)
Jess has remaining games against Josh and Geoff. If she can win out, she’s in. But if she loses both of those games, she’s eliminated.
As you might have guessed, it’s that middle territory where things get interesting. If Jess splits her last two games to finish 7-7, the computer gives her a 71.4% chance to make the playoffs. That’s pretty good. And her points lead over her nearest competitors (notably, Gray, Alex and Josh) is helping. And in the 29% of simulations where a 7-win team owned by Jess fails to make the playoffs, it’s usually because Nick has more points, and the Week 14 winner between Josh and Alex gets to eight wins.
But like as we discussed with Samantha, Jess’ points lead is slim. If we erase her points advantage and assume that all of the teams within 30 points of her do catch her, her chances of making the playoffs with only seven wins drops to 34%. So bottom line: she needs to win her last two games. Or split them, but maintain her points lead. Otherwise, it gets dicey.
If the playoffs ended today, she’d be in. And the computer likes her too, giving her a 64% chance overall to join the Big Five as the sixth and final playoff team. But if she’s going to make the playoffs, she’s going to have to do it without Deebo Samuel, her do-everything WR1 who leads all receivers not named Cooper Kupp in scoring. That’s because it appears Samuel will be sidelined 1-2 weeks. And Jonathan Taylor is on bye in Week 14. So I would not be surprised if Jess lost her last two games against two tough opponents in Josh (whose team is getting healthier) and Geoff. In fact, she might be the underdog in both games.
Can she be the dark horse we predicted back in Week 8 when she was 10th in these Power Rankings? Or will Jess’s comeback attempt fizzle at the end?
6. Gray (▼2)
7-5, .508 TW%, 117.0 ppg
A speed bump for Gray who lost this week to Samantha and has quietly finished with a bottom-three score in four of the last six weeks. In fact, since Week 7, Gray ranks 10th in TW% (.348) and ninth in points (99.4 ppg). Frankly, he’s a little lucky to have gone 3-3 over that stretch. This week, he drops to sixth in the Power Rankings, the lowest he’s been since Week 4, with a TW% hovering just above .500. Compared to his lofty standards, that’s bad. In fact, this team would rank ninth out of his 11 career teams.
All of which leads me to wonder, what happened to the explosive team we were bragging about just two weeks ago? I believe I called it, “arguably the strongest in the league.”
The answer? Injuries. CeeDee Lamb missed part or all of the last two games with a concussion. Michael Carter, the Jets rookie who appeared to be breaking out and led the league in scoring just four weeks ago, suffered an ankle injury and was placed on IR. He’s out until at least Week 15. And then Christian McCaffrey was unexpectedly declared out for the rest of the season due to an ankle injury he suffered in the Dolphins game. As Gray wrote in the group chat, “My season is unraveling 🤮.”
But these are first-world problems, aren’t they? Gray still has seven wins. And after the Panthers’ bye this week, I still see a lineup that includes Patrick Mahomes, Darrell Henderson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin and either Chuba Hubbard, Elijah Moore or Odell Beckham Jr. It may not be a world-beater, and I bet he wishes he had Leonard Fournette back, but that’s playoff caliber, no doubt.
And the computer agrees. Overall, Gray has a 91% chance of making the playoffs. Like Beth Ann and Samantha, he clinches with one more win. And if he never wins another game, it’s still a toss-up—approximately 53.5%.
In the cases where Gray misses the playoffs, he loses to both Geoff and Whitney. And then opens the door to other seven-win teams with more points than him. Currently, that includes Erik who leads Gray by 3.26 points. But not far behind are Brandon (-2.06 points) and Alex (-48.18). There’s only a 19% chance that Gray loses both of his last two games. But if he does, there’s suddenly room for the likes of Nick, Alex, Josh (who would need more wins) or even Erik or Brandon to slip into the playoffs through the back door.
But with this team, needing just one win, including a juicy matchup with the league’s 11th-place team in the final week (whose trade he voted to overturn just one week ago), I like Gray’s chances to get back to the playoffs for the third time in a row and the eighth time in his career. Full speed ahead.
7. Alex
6-6, .500 TW%, 113.0 ppg
Leonard Fournette’s 44.1 points in Week 12 were the 14th most by a player started in the Worst League in league history. And yet, Alex lost. That’s the second-most points by a player in a loss in Worst League history. Only Jess, who wasted 44.6 points from Davante Adams in Week 7 last year, has gotten more points from a single player in a losing effort.
But more importantly, the loss to Brandon ends Alex’s four-game winning streak and drops him to 6-6 on the season. As a result, he drops from the ranks of the projected playoff teams. If the playoffs started today, Alex would be the first team owner to miss, finishing with the same record as Nick and Jess, but trailing the latter by 75.42 points. That’s probably too much to make up in just two games.
So where does that leave Alex? His playoff chances were cut in half, dropping from 70% last week to just 35% today. Last week, he had a leg up on Nick in the wins category. With that advantage now gone, he needs to make up ground either in wins or points.
According to the Wall of Destiny, Alex does not control his own destiny. But he’s close. If he wins both of his last two games against Erik and Josh, he has a 97.2% chance of making the playoffs. Why not 100%? Even at eight wins, Alex could miss the playoffs if Nick and Jess also win out and he is not able to make up the points. Here are his rivals’ remaining games with their chances of winning based on TW% in parentheses.
Nick’s opponents: Beth Ann (44%) and Samantha (61%)
Jess’s opponents: Josh (59%) and Geoff (46%)
As you can see, Nick and Jess each have one game where they’re an underdog against Beth Ann and Geoff, respectively. And we know from their blurbs above that both Nick and Jess are missing key players. So their chances of both winning out are just 7.3% (.44 x .61 x. 59 x .46 = .073). Certainly, not impossible. But not likely either. That means Alex still has a really good shot if he can win both of his games.
But if he loses even one more game, his odds drop dramatically, causing him to make the playoffs in only 13.1% of simulations in which he finished 7-7. In those cases, he likely relies on either Jess or Nick losing out to allow himself to sneak in. Losing both of his final two games would eliminate him entirely. So that’s not an option.
Key will be the play of Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb. Leonard Fournette has proven himself. But can Chubb and Barkley get back to their high-scoring ways? The duo combined for just 15.2 points in Week 12 and Chubb is unfortunately on bye in Week 13. But if that trio can return to form, Alex’s schedule gives him the perfect opportunity to capitalize with games against Erik and Josh—not exactly murderer’s row this year. So don’t count out the commissioner just yet, who would make for a very dangerous six seed.
T8. Erik
5-7, .485 TW%, 117.2 ppg
Joe Mixon had his best game yet, scoring 32.3 points in Week 12 and is quietly RB3 on the season, trailing only Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler. He and Cordarrelle Patterson (27.5 points) helped Erik to a big win over Jess to keep his playoff hopes alive. As a result, Erik led all scorers in Week 12 in RB scoring. And you might be surprised to find that after struggling for much of the season at the position—including ranking 11th in RB scoring through Week 5—Erik is first in RB scoring since the Patterson deal and third on the season, trailing only Nick and Gray. Considering he only gave up Kyler Murray who has played just three games since the trade to acquire Patterson, it’s been a great move for Erik.
One week after finishing with the fewest points in the league, Erik nearly won his third weekly prize. That wild swing in scoring is a familiar thing for Erik this season who has either boomed or busted from week to week. This season, he has four games of more than 135 points; only Beth Ann has more. And he also has three games of less than 85 points; only Greco has more. A team owner with the potential to outscore the league’s top team in the Power Rankings or underperform its worst—that’s Erik.
In addition to the win, the large point total (147.04 points) was also important as Erik now ranks sixth in total points and is within striking distance of pretty much every team owner not named Nick and Beth Ann. So what does that mean for his playoff chances? At 5-7, Erik is still in this thing. The computer gives him a 14% chance of making the playoffs. But unlike the seven teams that control their own destiny plus Alex (who nearly does), Erik is the first of our long shots.
According to the Wall of Destiny, Erik would be eliminated with one more loss and needs to win out. If he’s able to defeat both Alex and Greco, the computer gives him a 41.2% chance of sneaking into the playoffs. So he needs help. Specifically, he needs the six- and seven-win team owners like Gray, Alex and Josh to lose a game or two. Right now, he ranks ahead of all of them in points. So if he can tie them with seven wins, then he can sneak into the playoffs. And if he can string together another couple of high-scoring games like this week’s, it’s possible he passes up Jess or Samantha in points, which would give him even more avenues for getting into the playoffs. Case in point, if we assume Erik outscores Jess and Samantha and re-run the simulations, his playoff chances increase to 78% if he can win out. Not bad all things considered.
But there will be hurdles. Amari Cooper is still recovering from COVID-19 and scored just 6.1 points on Thursday night. Melvin Gordon is also out this week with a hip/shoulder injury. And next week the Colts are on bye, which means no Carson Wentz or Michael Pittman. But if Mixon and Patterson can lead the way, Erik has a chance for consecutive playoff appearances for the first time in his career.
T8. Brandon (▲1)
5-7, .485 TW%, 116.8 ppg
In The Old Man and the Sea, Ernest Hemingway writes about an old Cuban fisherman’s battle with a giant marlin. After days of holding the line unable to reel the fish in, the old man is finally victorious, stabbing the marlin with a harpoon. Hemingway writes:
Then the fish came alive, with his death in him, and rose high out of the water showing all his great length and width and all his power and his beauty.
To be clear, Brandon is the fish in this metaphor. After weeks spent treading water, his team and its playoff chances were likely harpooned by Jess last week, dropping to 4-7 on the season. And that’s when his team came alive, rising out of the water like some gorgeous 18-foot marlin, resplendent and glistening in the light. Six players scored 20+ points including Nick Folk, his kicker. Even Brandon Aiyuk (yes, the same Aiyuk who was left for dead weeks ago) had 12.5 points.
As a result, Brandon won his first weekly prize since, believe it or not, Week 3 of 2019. That win and all those points give him some faint hope for the playoffs. Currently, he ranks eighth in scoring, just behind Erik and Gray but only 42.88 points back of Samantha who is third. The computer gives him a measly 2% chance of making the playoffs. Even if he wins out, those odds improve to just 10.9%.
But…if he can continue his high-scoring ways (Brandon surprisingly ranks first in scoring since Week 6), then maybe he’s not dead yet. If we re-run the simulations assuming Brandon catches the teams in front of him in points (which is possible), his playoff chances improve to 27%. Like Erik, he needs the six- and seven-win teams to lose so that he has the chance to tie them with seven wins and then beat them with the tiebreaker.
But I’m going to be honest, it’s not looking good. Dak Prescott already scored just 11.22 points on Thursday night (his third-worst score this season). And this week, Brandon will be starting his 10th different RB in Tevin Coleman, which is the most turnover at the position in the league. Candidly, with Javonte Williams benefitting from Melvin Gordon’s absence, I fully expect Greco to deliver the death blow in Week 13.
After all, in a Hemingway story, it usually doesn’t end well. Especially for the fish.
10. Josh
6-6, .439 TW%, 107.5 ppg
And then we come to Josh who is all the way down in 10th place in this week’s Power Rankings. Thanks to a 6-6 record, Josh is one of the luckier teams in the league this season given the fact that he ranks 10th in points with a TW% below .500. Case in point, in the week he faced nine-win Geoff, the league’s first-place team in the official standings scored a season-low 60.6 points, enabling Josh to come away with the win.
And yet, Josh is in the perfect position right now. Despite the fact that he ranks behind all the other six- and seven-win teams in points and is at least one game back of several of those contenders, Josh strangely controls his own destiny. How is that possible?
Turns out the schedule sets up just right for him. With his two remaining games against Jess and Alex, Josh plays two of the six-win teams with more points than him in the standings. As a result, if he’s able to win out, that means neither Jess nor Alex would be able to tie him with eight wins. He would have eight wins. They would have seven or fewer. And he’d likely sneak into the playoffs as a six seed behind Nick. If he had any other opponents, his points deficiency (he trails many of the contenders by over 100 points) would be a significant problem. But as it stands now, it’s win and he’s in.
As a result, the computer gives him a 19% chance of making the playoffs, which is ahead of Erik and Brandon and second only to Alex of the teams not currently projected to make it in. Of course, if he loses a game, he’s likely eliminated because the points just aren’t there for a tiebreaker. The Wall of Destiny says his odds are just 4.3% if he splits his final two games.
But after getting railroaded out of the playoffs last year despite having the league’s best team, I think Josh is in a good position to capitalize in 2021. That’s because his team may be finally getting healthy at just the right time. Kyler Murray appears to be making a return in Week 13. Rob Gronkowksi is back and had 19.3 points last week. And finally, Antonio Gibson and Darnell Mooney are coming on strong. If Aaron Jones is back and fully healthy after this week’s bye, I could totally see a world where Josh wins both of his last two games and enters the playoffs with one of the most dangerous teams in the league. He’ll have to beat two contenders to get there, but Josh has the league right where he wants them.
11. Whitney
5-7, .348 TW%, 100.0 ppg
In her first game with new trade acquisition Damien Harris, Whitney scored just 66.34 points, her second-fewest on the season. But though Harris (12.2 points) was narrowly outscored by Dalvin Cook (14.3), neither would have made the difference as Whitney’s team was soundly defeated and more than doubled up in points by Beth Ann.
Now at 5-7 with the fewest points in the league, Whitney is the longest of long shots to make the playoffs. In fact, in 10,000 simulations, there was just one (count ‘em—one!) where Whitney made the playoffs.
It was Simulation No. 8,191:
Whitney won both of her remaining games against Samantha and Gray to finish 7-7. Then Nick, Jess and Alex all went winless down the stretch to finish 6-8. And both Erik and Brandon split their final two games to finish just short of seven wins as well. As a result, Geoff, Beth Ann, Samantha and Josh all finished with at least eight wins and made the playoffs. Gray lost both of his remaining games, but still had enough points for the five seed. And finally, that left Whitney as the only remaining seven-win team who made it in as the sixth and final seed.
I mean, it’s possible. That’s the road map. But a lot has to go right. Luckily, Nick’s loss of D’Andre Swift is Whitney’s gain; she picked up Jamaal Williams on waivers. And DeAndre Hopkins does appear like he will play in Week 13 (albeit “more sparingly than usual”). It will be interesting to see how he plays in his return.
At least for one more week, Whitney is still alive. Come on, Simulation No. 8,191!
12. Greco
3-9, .295 TW%, 105.3 ppg
Finally, we come to Greco, who is our first team owner officially eliminated from the playoffs. With a loss to Nick, Greco drops to 3-9 on the season and has been mathematically eliminated from contention. Though with games remaining against Brandon and Erik, she can still play spoiler to two other long shots.
Now, her eyes turn to the Poop Bowl. With just three wins and ranking 11th in points, it’s entirely likely Greco will finish 11th or 12th in the final standings, which is a place you don’t want to be. Given the way the consolation ladder works (check the 2021 Season Preview if you want the full details), the bottom two teams are at a distinct disadvantage. Even if they win their first game, they still have to win their second game during the playoffs or risk dropping back down into the Poop Bowl. For Greco to avoid this fate, she’d have to win both of her last two games, hope Brandon or Erik lose out and outscore them by around 140 points. I could see her tying those guys or Whitney in wins. But I don’t think the points is happening.
As a result, all that’s left for Greco to do now is to continue setting her lineup, gun for the weekly prizes and wait. But to be clear, she can still make moves if she desires. Remember, in the preseason, we voted to prohibit transactions after elimination. But that’s only after a team has nothing left to play for during the playoffs. Here’s the full language:
“The general idea is that if you’re eliminated and you have nothing to gain from adding/dropping players, it can only hurt other players in contention. So just don’t do it.
To clarify, this does NOT apply during the regular season. Even if your team has been eliminated from playoff contention, you should still play out the rest of the regular season, which includes setting your lineup and trying to field the best team possible each and every week. Add players. Drop players. Submit waiver claims. It’s only fair to the rest of the league and other playoff hopefuls that the teams remaining on your schedule should have to go up against the best version of your team, not a team on autopilot.
This rule really only applies during the playoffs. Once you’re eliminated, stop making moves.”
Finally, despite the fact that she’s 12th in the Power Rankings and 11th in points on the season, I still think Greco has a dangerous team. With Justin Herbert (QB3), two effective RBs in James Robinson and Javonte Williams (the latter of whom is trending up), plus a WR corps that ranks fourth in the league in scoring, I would not be surprised to see Greco avoid the Poop Bowl game, entirely, and maybe even finish at the top of the consolation ladder.
Looking Ahead to Week 13
With two weeks to go, every game is big. And if you’ve read this far, you know that every game has implications for the playoffs. But given that they’re currently the last two teams projected to make the playoffs, all eyes will be on Nick and Jess this week.
Can a hobbled, but determined Evil Nick defeat Beth Ann, the team owner who knocked him from his perch atop the Power Rankings? And can Jess hold off Josh without Deebo Samuel? If either of those team owners slip, that opens the door for Alex, Josh, Erik, Brandon or even Simulation No. 8,191 (i.e. Whitney). Also, those last three team owners (Erik, Brandon and Whitney) are all facing elimination this week and would be removed from playoff contention with a loss.
Good luck to all in Week 13! And may the fantasy gods be with you.
