Week 10 Power Rankings
Oh, yeah. I remember that Patrick Mahomes guy. He’s pretty good at football.
With a league-leading 36.24 points in Week 10, Mahomes reminded us why he was the first QB taken in this year’s Worst League draft. And with that performance, we were all reminded of the potential of Gray’s team, which didn’t even include Mahomes in the lineup this week.
Nevertheless, even without Mahomes who was riding the bench, Gray won his second weekly prize this season, which makes it the sixth time he’s won multiple in a single season. The others include his two championship seasons, his GOAT squad from 2016 and two other years in which he finished in the money. That’s a good sign for Gray moving forward who is getting healthy and hot at just the right time.
The Scoreboard
Gray won his second weekly prize of the season, leading all scorers with 138.92 points.
With four games to go, Week 10 was big in shaping the landscape of the league as we enter the home stretch. Here are some of the key takeaways:
Geoff won his fifth straight game and eighth overall, essentially locking up a playoff spot and probably a first-round bye.
Gray looked explosive (more on that below), claiming his second weekly prize in a critical win over Beth Ann. The win puts him in the driver’s seat for the second of two first-round byes.
With a win over Greco, Samantha joined Gray as the only other 6-4 team and is now third in the official standings.
Jess and Josh got huge wins over Nick and Erik, respectively. There are now five 5-5 teams, which is currently the dividing line between playoff and non-playoff teams.
Following a 2-5 start, Alex won his third straight game to get back to .500. Big win for him as it puts him in a great position with his players finally getting healthy.
Teams below .500 include Erik, Brandon, Whitney and Greco. Pray for them. 🙏
Power Rankings
No surprise. Nick is still on top. But with his second straight loss, his hold on the league may be slipping, especially with new contenders emerging including Gray, Jess and Alex. So let’s break it down as we do every week from first to worst.
Nick, Beth Ann, Geoff and Gray remain a cut above the rest of the league.
1. Nick
5-5, .673 TW%, 131.3 ppg
Well, this is awkward. After two straight losses with under 100 points scored, the #1 team in the Power Rankings—who has held this spot nearly the entire season—is now just 5-5 and fourth in the official standings. Uh oh…
So what went wrong? As deep as Nick’s team is, even he is starting to struggle with injuries. Damien Harris was out last week because of a concussion. De’Andre Hopkins has missed two games with a lingering hamstring issue (and will likely miss a third). Antonio Brown has now missed four weeks due to an ankle injury with no end in sight. And though Russell Wilson returned in Week 10, he looked severely limited, scoring just 5.64 points. Yes, Cooper Kupp is still ridiculous (five straight games of 20+ points). But without his team at full strength, Nick’s scoring is down 28% over the last three weeks. And it’s most notable at WR where his scoring dropped from an other-worldly 56.8 ppg to a more average 38.6 ppg over the last three weeks.
All of which leads me to wonder, could this be Josh’s 2020 season all over again? Remember, last year Josh finished first in the final Power Rankings and scoring, but missed the playoffs with a 6-7 record. (You can read all about it here.) So what are the chances this happens to Nick? According to the computer, just 10%. Given Nick’s substantial points lead (he leads the current seven seed by 203.36 points with four games to go), he most likely would have to finish 1-3 or worse down the stretch to miss the playoffs. Josh was in a much more dire situation last year. With four games to go, Josh was 3-6 and needed to win out. Nick, on the other hand, probably just needs to win two more games. And there are even scenarios where one is enough. So I’m not sweating it yet, but my eyebrow is raised.
2. Beth Ann
5-5, .645 TW%, 126.5 ppg
Beth Ann didn’t really stand a chance this week. Playing without Alvin Kamara (held out in Week 10 for a mild knee sprain), Beth Ann got just 13.4 points from RBs Kenyan Drake and trade acquisition Jordan Howard. No Ja’Marr Chase (on bye) also didn’t help. But he likely would not have made a difference for Beth Ann going against Gray, who was dominant in Week 10. As a result, the loss drops her back down to .500 as she has alternated between wins and losses every week since Week 5.
But I might just consider this the calm before the storm. That’s because Beth Ann, who is the only team owner that has really challenged Nick for the top spot in the Power Rankings this season, may soon be back to full strength. Though it won’t happen in Week 11, Alvin Kamara and David Montgomery (her top two RBs) should both be back in the lineup soon and for the first time since Week 4. Even better, all of her starters except for Aaron Rodgers have had their byes, which means the league leader at WR (51.4 ppg) should be firing on all cylinders. Remember, before the bye weeks, Beth Ann was nearly unstoppable, finishing as the runner-up to the weekly prize three weeks in a row. Assuming health (Kamara is expected to be out again in Week 11), I think a big finish is coming.
3. Geoff
8-2, .618 TW%, 125.6 ppg
Speaking of Alvin Kamara, as long as the Saints RB is out, Geoff will continue to benefit. That’s because he owns Kamara’s backup, Mark Ingram. And if there’s one position of weakness for Geoff all season, it’s been RB2. But with Kamara out, Geoff got 20.8 points out of Ingram (RB8 on the week) and led all team owners starting two RBs in RB scoring. He finished with 134.02 points, defeated Brandon and is the hottest team over the last three weeks, ranking first in TW% (.818) and second in points (119.9 ppg).
Now at 8-2, Geoff is essentially a lock for the playoffs though he has not officially clinched. That’s because there are still more than six teams within three games of Geoff with four games to go. So in theory, it’s possible he loses out and gets passed up. But those other teams would probably need to score a lot of points too. In fact, in 10,000 simulations, there were 16 scenarios where he missed the playoffs, but only if I negated his points advantage. With his current points advantage, he was a perfect 10,000/10,000.
In all likelihood, Geoff is not only a good bet for the playoffs but probably also a top-two seed, which would give him a big advantage in his quest for a second championship. But because of that hole at RB2 currently being occupied by Mark Ingram and the fact that I’m not completely sold on DeVonta Smith (WR25 but 22.6 points in two straight games), I still think this team is a step below Nick and Beth Ann when fully healthy or even Gray’s team right now. But there’s no doubting that Geoff is a force to be reckoned with, and he’s set up for another big game in Week 11. With one more win, he’ll tie his career high in regular season wins with nine from 2011 and is currently on pace for his best season ever by TW%.
4. Gray
6-4, .573 TW%, 121.7 ppg
Now there’s the EXPLOSION I was talking about! So I was a week off, but in Week 10, Gray led the league with 138.92 points behind big games from trade acquisitions Christian McCaffrey (26.1 points) and CeeDee Lamb (28.6). Terry McLaurin (11.9) showcased a solid floor in his first game for Gray, which is thankfully a far cry from the Marquez Callaway days. And Gray’s league-leading total could have been even better if only he had not benched Patrick Mahomes. That’s because Mahomes went OFF, scoring a season-high 36.24 points on five TDs and over 400 yards passing. Unfortunately, Gray started recent trade acquisition Matthew Stafford (a season-low 9.82 points), who suddenly looks obsolete in this lineup. But with Mahomes starting, Gray’s Week 10 score would have been 165.34 points.
Now, that’s the kind of fearsome production I was warning about like some sort of fantasy Cassandra. With Mahomes back to being Mahomes while Nick and Beth Ann are both dealing with injuries to key starters, Gray’s team is arguably the strongest in the league right now. We can talk later about the implications of trading away Leonard Fournette for a player that amounts to only insurance at this point. But when the league’s leader in RB scoring is also leading the league in receptions (39 in Week 10, which was tied for the most this season by any team owner), you should be afraid, very afraid.
Moving forward, the computer pegs Gray as the favorite (a 35% chance) to claim the second of two first-round byes. Though he currently trails them in points, he’s one win ahead of Nick and Beth Ann and has a much more favorable schedule than fellow 6-4 team owner, Samantha. Personally, I’m already looking ahead to a Week 13 matchup between he and Geoff, which just might be a preview of the top two seeds.
T5. Erik (▼1)
4-6, .491 TW%, 118.8 ppg
You just knew Erik wasn’t going to win this week. I mean, Joe Mixon can’t get 15 points if he’s on bye. So the streak continues. That makes it 10 straight games where Erik gets a win when Mixon scores at least 15 points and a loss when he doesn’t.
Overall, it was a bad week for Erik who scored just 83.3 points in a crucial loss to Josh. Carson Wentz (7.1 points) and Michael Pittman (12.1) fell back to Earth despite a tasty matchup with the Jaguars. With his Colts disappointing plus the first single-digit score from Cordarrelle Patterson since Week 1, Erik had his first game of under 100 points since Week 5 and drops one spot into fifth in the Power Rankings.
But more importantly, the loss to Josh drops Erik to 4-6 and ninth in the official standings. As a result, his playoff chances dropped from 62% last week to 28% now. That’s easily the biggest change of the week. The good news? He still leads all non-Big Five teams in scoring and has the easiest remaining schedule with games against Geoff, Jess, Alex and Greco. But he’s facing a serious challenge this week going against Geoff, especially considering it appears Erik accidentally started an inactive Cordarrelle Patterson on Thursday night. That doughnut in the lineup, plus Amari Cooper’s sudden appearance on the reserve/COVID-19 list will not do him any favors. But if Joe Mixon can score 15 points, maybe none of that matters.
T5. Samantha (▲1)
6-4, .491 TW%, 118.6 ppg
Despite just 91.4 points, Samantha got the win in Week 10 over Greco. If you’re keeping track at home, which I am, that’s her second win in the low 90s, and she now has three of the bottom seven winning scores this season.
The truth is Samantha has quietly been in a slump lately, bringing some doubt about her membership in the Big Five. Over the last four weeks, Samantha has not topped 102.86 points and is 10th in TW% (.273) and 11th in points (94.3 ppg) over that time. The reason? Her WR scoring has dropped off a cliff. Mike Williams, formerly a top-five player at his position, is now WR17 on the season. And both he and Marvin Jones have failed to register even a single game with a double-figure score during her recent slide. Plus, with no Calvin Ridley who remains out for mental health reasons, Samantha’s WR scoring has declined from 46.0 ppg from Weeks 1-6 to 23.3 ppg from Weeks 7-10. For now, Josh Allen and her trio of RBs (Ezekiel Elliott, Myles Gaskin and James Conner) have picked up the slack. But this is not the same team we were seeing earlier in the season who was as high as second in the Power Rankings.
The good news is that a win is a win. And Samantha is currently third in the standings, one of only two teams with a 6-4 record. The remaining schedule is tough, including games against Beth Ann, Gray and Nick. But at least she has the points on her side, leading all non-Big Five teams except for Erik in scoring. That gives her some wiggle room. If she can maintain her points lead, the computer gives her an 82% chance to make the playoffs, including a 75% chance even if she only wins one more game.
7. Jess (▲1)
5-5, .482 TW%, 118.3 ppg
HUGE win for Jess in Week 10, taking down Nick in a convincing 34-point victory. Jonathan Taylor looks like the best RB in fantasy (25.6 ppg since Week 4). And Deebo Samuel has been similarly awesome, scoring 30.3 points in Week 10 on just five targets. I mean, how?! She along with Nick (Austin Ekeler, D’Andre Swift, Cooper Kupp) and Geoff (Najee Harris, Tyreek Hill) are the only three team owners with a top-five RB and WR.
As a result of the win, Jess saw the biggest increase in playoff chances, which jumped from 22% last week to 48% this week. In fact, if the playoffs were to start today, Jess would get the six seed thanks to her 61.9-point lead over Alex.
Jess joins the rest of the Big Five as a projected playoff team after Week 10.
Since her 1-3 start, Jess is 4-2 and has quietly been the best team in the league over that stretch. In her last six games, she’s first in TW% (.682) and points (128.8 ppg) and only has one dud in that time—a Week 8 one-point loss to Samantha. Two weeks ago, I pegged her as “the dark horse most likely to emerge from outside the Big Five and make the playoffs.” With two straight wins, she’s making that prediction look pretty good. Now if only I could make predictions like that with my own team.
8. Alex (▼1)
5-5, .473 TW%, 111.0 ppg
That’s one-two-three wins in a row for Alex who has rebounded from 2-5 to get back to .500, the second-longest active win streak in the league behind Geoff. And this week, it was an impressive win despite playing without Nick Chubb who was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. But thanks to the trade for Leonard Fournette (17.2 points in his first game for Judge Jeudy), Alex had plenty of breathing room in a 94.02-65.1 win over Whitney. What can I say? Sometimes, it’s not about how you play; it’s about who you play.
But timing is everything, isn’t it? With three straight games against teams scoring 97.16 points or less, Alex was able to lick his wounds with cushy matchups. But now, he may be at full strength for the first time since Week 4. Remember, before injuries to Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb, Alex was tied for third in the Power Rankings. Now with Leonard Fournette on the roster, his team may be even better. Let’s just put it this way, I wouldn’t want to have to play Alex down the stretch run. (And I do in Week 12.)
He trails Jess in points, but not by so much that he couldn’t overcome the deficit. There’s no question in my mind, as long as Barkley and Chubb are healthy, Alex is dangerous and essentially neck-and-neck with Jess for the sixth and final playoff spot.
T9. Brandon (▲1)
4-6, .445 TW%, 112.1 ppg
A tough week for Brandon who continues to play well in recent weeks but did not get the result he wanted. Despite 121.84 points scored this week, Brandon was denied the chance to get back to .500 thanks to an even better game from Geoff. That makes it the third time this season Brandon has lost despite finishing in the top half of the league in scoring, most in the league. He also has three losses with 120+ points scored, again most in the league. Woe is me, right?
Still, Brandon rises up into a tie for ninth in the Power Rankings, the highest he’s been this season. There has not been a truly explosive game, but since A.J. Brown returned to full health in Week 6, Brandon has five straight games with scores in the top half of the league in scoring—something no other team owner can say. He’s also been the third-best team in the league in that time, trailing only Nick and Jess in TW% and points.
Moving forward, he’ll look to see if he can continue to scratch and claw his way back into playoff contention. Luckily for him, Aaron Jones’ recent injury means A.J. Dillon is suddenly a very viable replacement for Derrick Henry in the RB1 spot in Brandon’s lineup. Trailing Jess and Alex in wins and Erik in points, it’s not looking good. But crazier things have happened.
T9. Josh
5-5, .445 TW%, 110.3 ppg
A big win for Josh in Week 10 who was able to pull off the upset over Erik despite no Kyler Murray, Chase Claypool, Tee Higgins or Darnell Mooney. Most encouraging was the play of Antonio Gibson who looked healthier after the bye, scoring a season-high 21.8 points. As a result, this was Josh’s first game finishing in the top half of the league in scoring since Week 4. The win improves his record to 5-5 and certainly keeps him in the hunt.
Unfortunately, this guy can’t catch a break as Aaron Jones has now gone down with injury and is expected to miss 1-2 weeks. With the Packers’ bye coming in Week 13, he likely will not have Jones back until Week 14 when it may be too late. To make matters worse, Kyler Murray will miss a third straight game (plus a fourth coming next week with the bye). And with Jones out, it looks like (gulp) D’Onta Foreman will get the start at RB2.
The fact that this team is 5-5 is its saving grace. Unlike last year, Josh’s team has actually been “lucky” relative to its TW%. But the schedule down the stretch is about as tough as it gets with remaining games against Gray’s explosive team, Geoff who has not lost since Week 5, Jess who has the best team over the last six weeks, and Alex who is suddenly rounding into form. With games against Jess and Alex, he’ll likely control his own destiny. But it won’t be easy.
11. Whitney
4-6, .364 TW%, 102.4 ppg
There is no bottom! Whitney just keeps losing and losing, six straight games now. And this week was the worst one with just 65.1 points scored, the fewest by any team owner this season. Still no Kareem Hunt. Adrian Peterson has not been great since being acquired by the Titans. And DJ Moore’s fantasy value has plummeted with the poor QB play in Carolina. Since the losing streak started, her true record is 9-46 with a TW% of .164 while averaging 84.9 ppg. That’s bad.
Last week, she made fantasy history by becoming the first team owner to start two TEs with both George Kittle and Dallas Goedert getting the start as a result of a new rule change this year allowing TEs in the flex. With very few options this week, it looks like she’ll go back to that well again. And perhaps not by choice. Looking at her recent drops, it appears Whitney may have been searching for another WR on the waiver wire but was unable to make a move with Jonnu Smith (who played Thursday night) locked into her IR spot. That’s unlucky and a cautionary tale for others to be wary of those early games.
But if ever there were a week for Whitney to get off the schneid, perhaps it’s this week against Greco, the league’s last-place team. Speaking of inactivity, as of this writing, I still spy Marquise Brown (who has been declared out for Week 11) locked into Greco’s lineup. So at the very least, Whitney may be playing nine-on-eight. And every little advantage helps.
12. Greco
3-7, .300 TW%, 106.5 ppg
Another bad game for Greco who totaled just 76.2 points in a loss to Samantha thanks largely to duds from Justin Herbert (12 points), DK Metcalf (5.6) and Javonte Williams (6.9) plus an inexplicable doughnut from Mike Gesicki (0). Not to mention the decision to bench Marquise Brown (who had an early Thursday night game) in favor of Cole Beasley.
As a result, Greco is now the first team to seven losses. At 3-7, she’s not out of it yet. But it’s getting late early. In 10,000 simulations, Greco made the playoffs just seven times. Ranking last in scoring, she likely needs to win out and could help her case if she’s able to put together some high scores down the stretch. Unfortunately, this season Greco has just two games with above-average scores.
Looking Ahead to Week 11
With four games to go, every game is big. But the one I’m most interested to see is the matchup between Alex and Nick. Both team owners are 5-5. And you would think Nick would be favored. But Alex is finally healthy and Nick will be without a handful of starters, plus Cooper Kupp on bye. Could Alex upset the season-long Power Rankings leader? If so, Nick would drop to 5-6, putting some serious playoff pressure on Nick as we enter the home stretch.
That wraps it up for this week. I hope everyone has a good weekend as we all no doubt prepare to travel for the Thanksgiving holiday. Thanks for reading. And good luck to all in Week 11!
