Week 9 Power Rankings
This week reminded us that in fantasy football, anything can happen.
It was not only the lowest-scoring week this season, but the lowest-scoring week of the PPR era. Four of the 10 worst scores this season were recorded by teams this week. And as a whole, the league averaged just 98.4 ppg. For reference, league average during the PPR era is 117.9. That’s a difference of nearly 20 points.
And some of the biggest studs had the worst games. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes both scored around 10 points. Top-10 players at their position, Aaron Jones and D’Andre Swift, posted single-digit scores as did Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase. The week’s top scorer (James Conner) wasn’t even started. And some of the biggest scores this week were from defenses as the Patriots D/ST (19 points) and Browns D/ST (18) were both the high scorers on their respective teams. And both those teams lost anyway. Yeah, it was that kind of week.
Go home, Week 9. You’re drunk.
The Scoreboard
Five of six underdogs won in Week 9 leading to unprecedented parity with 10 teams within a half game of .500.
As for the teams, themselves…complete madness. With the exception of Beth Ann’s victory over Greco, every single underdog (based on last week’s Power Rankings) won this week. As a result, we have a tightly bunched group of teams in the official standings.
Geoff’s important victory over Nick (more on that below) puts him at the top of the heap at 7-2, at least two games ahead of everyone else and three ahead of the sixth and final playoff spot with five games to go. Meanwhile at the bottom, there’s Greco who is now 3-6 following the lowest score this season. But everyone else is right there in the middle. All 10 of the remaining teams are either 5-4 or 4-5.
I can’t recall a time when the league was this bunched up. Last year at this time, we had just five teams with a 5-4 or 4-5 record. Overall, there was less parity with one 8-1, one 7-2 and one 6-3 team, plus more than a few cellar-dwellers, including three 3-6 teams and one 1-8 team. This year, almost the entire league is within one game of each other.
So I did the research and it turns out this level of parity is unprecedented in league history. Never have we had 10 teams within one game of each other in Week 9. The closest facsimile is 2014, Josh’s rookie season. That year, Jess, the eventual champion, had jumped out to a big lead and was 7-1-1. Meanwhile, Geoff, Nick and Alex were 3-5-1 or worse. As a result, the other eight teams were all bunched between 5-3-1 and 4-5. Eventually, three of those middle teams, including the teams in eighth (Gray) and 11th place (Greco) in the Power Rankings would go on to make the playoffs.
And that was pre-playoff expansion. Now with six teams making the playoffs, it means that it’s still anyone’s game. So don’t despair if you find yourself lower in the totem pole this week. There’s still plenty of season left to play. Remember, anything can happen. This week was certainly proof of that.
Power Rankings
For the last few weeks, we’ve talked about a Big Five of Nick, Beth Ann, Geoff, Gray and Samantha. And I still think that group has distinguished itself. All five are 5-4 or better while averaging 119.8 ppg or better. But with Gray and Samantha struggling in recent weeks, a new team owner has emerged to join their ranks—Erik!
After jumping four spots last week, Erik won his second weekly prize this week and now jumps another two spots after Week 9. Two top scores have helped to push him all the way up into a tie for fourth in the Power Rankings where he actually has more points scored than either Gray or Samantha. Though he is still one game back of those two in the win/loss column, I think Erik officially deserves some respect in this space.
In fact, since trading away Kyler Murray for Cordarrelle Patterson and Carson Wentz prior to Week 6, Erik is the best team in the league, ranking first in TW% (.750) and second in points (128.8 ppg), trailing only Nick. So props for the bold move and it officially paying off.
Alright, let’s get to the rest of the rankings. As we do every week, we’ll break it down from first to worst.
Erik is once again the biggest riser this week, jumping two spots into a tie for fourth place.
1. Nick
5-4, .687 TW%, 135.0 ppg
Nick had arguably his worst game of the season, scoring a season-low 95.88 points and finishing in the bottom half of the league in scoring for just the third time this season. I praised Joe Burrow’s play last week, but he was bad in Week 9, scoring just 7.38 points. The loss ends a three-game winning streak and drops him to 5-4, though he continues to lead all teams in scoring by a healthy margin (+48.04 points ahead of second place).
This is now Nick’s eighth week at #1 this season, which is tied for the most weeks at #1 for a team owner over the last three years. If he’s able to maintain this position for at least one more week, he would tie Alex’s Thanos team from 2018. The only other teams that have held this spot longer are Gray in 2015 (nine weeks), Jess in 2014 (10 weeks), Greco in 2013 (10 weeks) and Gray in 2011 (all 13 weeks).
Given Nick’s points lead and his standing in the Power Rankings, I’m not too concerned about his chances for the playoffs despite the 5-4 record. But the loss to Geoff this week does put Geoff in the driver’s seat ahead of Nick for one of the two first-round byes.
2. Beth Ann
5-4, .667 TW%, 129.7 ppg
In any other week, 111.52 points would seem small. But in Week 9, that total was good enough for the second-highest score of the week, enabling Beth Ann to bounce back from a disappointing Week 8 and return to within striking distance of Nick for the top spot in the Power Rankings.
With Aaron Rodgers presumably in a laboratory “doing his own research” with Joe Rogan all weekend, Trevor Lawrence scored just 5.12 points for Beth Ann in relief. Ja’Marr Chase also looked human (8.9 points). But no matter. It was more than enough to defeat Greco who started one inactive player in James Robinson plus another who might as well have been (Robby Anderson, 1.2 points). Beth Ann also tied for the lead with 29 receptions in Week 9.
3. Geoff (▲1)
7-2, .586 TW%, 124.7 ppg
A big-time win for Geoff this week over Nick even if his opponent was without D’Andre Swift and Antonio Brown (bye) as well as Russell Wilson and DeAndre Hopkins (injury). The win now makes Geoff the favorite to get one of two first-round byes, increasing his odds from 63% to 89%, not to mention a 99.83% near-certainty just to make the playoffs.
Geoff and Nick are currently the favorites for the two first-round byes.
With the fourth-best score of Week 9, Geoff has finished in the top half of the league in scoring in five of the last six weeks, picking up five wins in that time. Now at 7-2, he has a two-game lead over the rest of the Big Five who all have just five wins. With only five games left to play and currently third in points behind only Nick and Beth Ann, Geoff is in great shape to make the playoffs, even if he never wins another game.
In fact, in 10,000 simulations, Geoff went 0-5 down the stretch just 92 times—a little less than 1% of the time. But of those 92 worst-case scenarios, he still made the playoffs in 75 of them thanks to his current points lead over many of the potential team owners with which he would enter a tiebreaker. That means that even in the event Geoff never wins another game, we would say that he still has an 82% (75 out of 92 simulations) chance of making the playoffs*.
(*Assuming he maintains his points lead. 😉)
T4. Erik (▲2)
4-5, .525 TW%, 122.7 ppg
Erik had a heckuva two weeks. After 147.34 points in Week 8, Erik just won his second weekly prize in a row in Week 9, demolishing Gray 138.18-67.94. And yes, Joe Mixon scored at least 15 points, which he has now done in all four of Erik’s wins. As a result, Erik has catapulted from 10th to fourth in the Power Rankings, his highest mark since Week 2. Not only that, but with 142.8 ppg over his last two games, he now ranks fourth in total points scored, ahead of both Samantha and Gray.
All of that means Erik is now projected to join the Big Five as the sixth and final playoff team. The computer gives him a healthy 62% chance. And he has the easiest schedule remaining with games against Josh, Jess, Alex and Greco. Geoff in Week 11 is his only remaining opponent with a winning record or a TW% above .500.
The only issue may be depth. The bye weeks are coming for Joe Mixon, Melvin Gordon, Michael Pittman and Travis Kelce. And Erik just lost Julio Jones this week to IR for a hamstring issue. So we’ll see if he can keep up his electric pace.
T4. Gray (▼1)
5-4, .525 TW%, 119.8 ppg
Sorry, Gray! Looks like I totally jinxed you last week. Here’s what I wrote:
Why do I think this team is about to explode? The deepest, most productive RB room in the league (51.8 ppg) is about to add Christian McCaffrey to the mix. …So yes, this team’s top strength is about to get even stronger, but the real boon is how its position of greatest weakness, WR, has been vastly improved. …That’s a recipe that could easily challenge Nick for the top spot sometime in the very near future.
Of course after writing this, Gray went and had his worst game of the season, scoring 67.94 points in a loss to Erik. Only Greco’s 66.04 points this week were worse. For Gray, it was his fewest points scored this season and his worst score of the PPR era by nearly 30 points.
So what happened? Just bad games all around for his starters including single-digit totals for Darrell Henderson, Michael Carter, CeeDee Lamb and Kyle Pitts. Christian McCaffrey was okay in his return from injury, scoring 14.6 points. But with recently acquired Terry McLaurin on bye, Bryan Edwards (0 points) turned out to be a poor streamer.
Of course, the real bummer for Gray of late has been fourth-round pick, Patrick Mahomes. Since Week 7, Mahomes is averaging just 10.7 ppg. No surprise Gray is 1-2 in that time, ranking last in QB scoring. That explains this week’s move for Matthew Stafford, selling off some of his RB depth (Leonard Fournette) to acquire the Rams QB.
Moving forward, I stand by my prediction on Gray. I’m still bullish on his prospects. And I think that starts this week. And the cherry on top? Odell Beckham Jr.’s recent trade to the Rams combined with Robert Woods’ season-ending ACL injury means that Gray may finally have some much-needed WR depth. Or maybe Beckham’s just washed up. Either way, we’ll find out soon enough.
6. Samantha (▼1)
5-4, .515 TW%, 121.7 ppg
Samantha requested this for her writeup this week:
“Josh Allen. 9 points.”
Though technically Allen scored 9.56 points, Samantha was none too pleased with the performance of her star QB. Or the entire Buffalo Bills offense for that matter, which laid an egg against the lowly Jaguars. As a result, Samantha lost to Alex for the first time in league history. Previously, she was 5-0 against the commissioner including two notable playoff victories in 2018 and 2019.
Like with Gray, it’s been a rough three weeks for Samantha who has three games of 102.86 points or less. In that time, she ranks 10th in TW% (.273) and 10th in points (95.2 ppg), leading only Gray and the suddenly sliding Whitney.
But just like with Gray, I also like Samantha’s chances to bounce back. In her case, it’s largely thanks to the play of James Conner, who now leads the NFL in touchdowns with 11. In Week 9, Conner scored a monstrous 40.3 points. Unfortunately, they were all on Samantha’s bench. But with Chase Edmonds sidelined, Conner could help provide Samantha’s lineup with the punch in the arm that it needs.
7. Alex (▼1)
4-5, .485 TW%, 112.9 ppg
Speaking of Alex, it was another big win for him this week, especially with Chris Godwin and Tyler Lockett both on bye. And against his fantasy kryptonite, Samantha, no less. Like with Erik, Alex was 2-5 just two weeks ago. But after consecutive wins, he’s now right in the thick of things with the computer giving him the best chance of making the playoffs (30%) outside the currently projected playoff teams.
But the best news for Alex’s prospects this week was probably the trade for Leonard Fournette. I think this was a great trade for Alex who was desperately in need of some help at RB with Saquon Barkley still out and now Nick Chubb testing positive for COVID-19. Plus, in the long run, a lineup that includes Barkley, Chubb, and Fournette at RB plus Godwin and Lockett at WR is dangerous, indeed.
He’ll need to start piling up the points to catch up with some of the other 4-5 teams with which he’d likely be battling for a final playoff spot (notably Erik and Jess who lead him by 88.2 and 34.18 points, respectively). But with five weeks to go, there’s time. So don’t count Alex out just yet.
8. Jess (▲2)
4-5, .444 TW%, 116.7 ppg
It was a good week for Jess who got back on the winning track after losing two straight games. With a 110.78-85.32 win over Whitney, Jess improves her record to 4-5 and trails only Erik in points among the 4-5 teams.
That’s the good news. The bad news? Things are about to get harder. First of all, she lost Robert Woods to a season-ending ACL injury in practice this week. That hurts, especially after Woods had turned it on as of late, averaging 18.2 ppg over the last five weeks. Those were better numbers than Keenan Allen or Courtland Sutton over that time, making Woods her second-best WR behind only Deebo Samuel. Moving forward, she’ll likely need both Allen and especially Sutton to play well in relief of Woods.
And that’s because the schedule gets harder. No one has a tougher remaining schedule than Jess who has three of her remaining five games against teams in the top half of the Power Rankings. That includes Nick in Week 10, Erik in Week 12 and Geoff in Week 14. Based on the computer simulations, she probably needs to get to at least seven wins to have a chance. That means she needs to sweep her “easy” opponents (Brandon and Josh) and then go 1-2 against the tough ones. Totally doable. But it won’t be easy. Let’s see if she can get the ball rolling this week against Nick.
9. Josh (▼1)
4-5, .424 TW%, 110.1 ppg
Josh was up against it in Week 9, putting up a valiant effort without Kyler Murray (ankle injury), Antonio Gibson (bye) and Mike Evans (bye), not to mention his two best TEs (Rob Gronkowski and Dawson Knox) who both remain out with injury. Even still, Josh was in striking distance on Monday night, needing Chase Claypool to outscore Pat Freiermuth by 6.38 points. Theoretically, totally possible if not likely. Unfortunately, Freiermuth was the one who had the big game, scoring 21.3 points on two TDs, securing Josh’s loss to Brandon and dropping him to 4-5.
Unfortunately for Josh, the hits keep on coming. In Week 10, it appears Murray will continue to miss time. And now Claypool is also injured, joining Tee Higgins and Darnell Mooney (both on bye) on the bench. That means both Devonta Freeman and Jamal Agnew will start for Josh in Week 10. Not ideal. Worse, he plays the red-hot Erik this week in a revenge game for Cordarrelle Patterson who Josh traded to Erik weeks back.
I want to like Josh’s prospects. This team has talent. But it’s just not healthy right now. Perhaps that explains why Josh has not finished in the top half of the league in scoring since Week 4. As a result, he’s 1-4 in that time, ranking 11th in TW% (.291) and 10th in points (101.4 ppg) over the last five weeks. Moving forward, he faces an uphill climb with consecutive games against Erik, Gray and Geoff—all teams with a TW% above .500.
10. Brandon
4-5, .414 TW%, 111.0 ppg
Speaking of Josh’s Week 9 opponent, Brandon acquitted himself well in the first game without Derrick Henry. The best move this week might have been his acquisition of Pat Freiermuth whose 21.3 points were a big improvement over what Zach Ertz would have scored (5.7 points). And there’s maybe a bit of momentum here. With 104.78 points scored in Week 9, Brandon has now quietly finished in the top half of the league in scoring four weeks in a row. In that time, he ranks third in TW% (.659) and fourth in points (121.1 ppg). Not bad.
But how long can he keep this up? That’s the question, especially without Derrick Henry. It’s a ragtag group that will be taking on Geoff, the first-place team in the standings this week, including Elijah Mitchell, D’Ernest Johnson and Pat Freiermuth. But if those undrafted fantasy free agents can get the job done, then maybe there’s hope for Brandon yet. His 15% chance of making the playoffs is easily the highest it’s been this season.
11. Whitney (▼2)
4-5, .404 TW%, 106.5 ppg
Whitney lost her fifth straight game in Week 5, dropping below .500 for the first time this season. She’s now tied with Alex for the longest losing streak this season. With just 85.32 points scored, it was her fifth game in a row of 103.04 points or less. And with Jason Myers on bye in Week 9, she also failed to start a kicker, the first time this season a team owner has left one of his/her nine roster spots empty.
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Whitney. After the first four weeks, she was 4-0 and ranked fourth in the Power Rankings. But since that time, she’s last in TW% (.200) and last in scoring (92.0 ppg). And after seeing Adrian Peterson’s first game for the Titans in relief of Derrick Henry, I’m not sure her trade of Terry McLaurin for Peterson and Emmanuel Sanders is going to work out. Peterson’s day was salvaged by a late TD. But if not for that score, he would have had just 3.6 points. It looks like a full-blown committee in Tennessee.
The one bright spot? George Kittle is back. In his first game since a Week 4 calf injury, Kittle had 20.1 points, including over 100 yards receiving and a TD. Given her backup TE Dallas Goedert’s strong play and her general lack of depth at WR, it’s possible Whitney could become the first team owner to play two TEs in her lineup. In fact, this week Goedert has the highest projection of any of her flex-eligible player after her top-four starters.
So, when will Whitney stop the slide? The schedule is not making it any easier. She has two winnable games against Alex and Greco over the next two weeks. But after that, it’s Beth Ann, Samantha and Gray, all teams in the Big Five. The computer gives her a not insignificant 7.11% chance of losing out and finishing the season 4-10.
12. Greco
3-6, .323 TW%, 109.9 ppg
Greco lost to Beth Ann 111.52-66.04, giving her a third loss in her last four games. But this one could have been a lot closer. That’s because Greco started James Robinson (declared out with a heel injury) and Robby Anderson (averaging 5.8 ppg) over regular starter Marquise Brown (coming off his bye). Had she subbed in Javonte Williams for Robinson and Brown for Anderson, she would have finished with a more respectable 96.54 points, much better than the season-low 66.04 points she did score. If not for a Chase Edmonds injury, it’s possible she could have won this game. Alas, the loss drops her to 3-6, and she is now last in the official standings in wins and 11th in points.
But the good news for Greco is that the Danger Zone should fly again. Davante Adams, DK Metcalf and Marquise Brown are all active and without byes over the next three weeks. If James Robinson can return from his heel injury (currently questionable to play in Week 10), then she’ll have a stronger team than her position within the rankings would suggest. And even though she’s in last place, she’s still just one game back of the current sixth-place team in the standings. With five games to go, she’s by no means out of it yet.
Looking Ahead to Week 10
Given that practically every team owner is still in playoff contention, every game this week is big. But I’m especially focused on three:
First, Beth Ann (5-4) takes on Gray (5-4). These are two powerhouse teams as Beth Ann has nipped at Nick’s heels for the top spot in the rankings most of the season. But is this the week that Gray goes Super Saiyan? Beth Ann will be without Alvin Kamara (injured) and Ja’Marr Chase (on bye). Meanwhile, Gray will finally start a lineup that includes Christian McCaffrey and Terry McLaurin to go along with his usual studs. Plus, how will Patrick Mahomes react to being benched for Matthew Stafford? I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re devoting a significant portion of next week’s writeup to Gray’s stellar performance. (Yes, that is an intentional attempt at a jinx.)
Next, Nick (5-4) faces Jess (4-5). It appears Russell Wilson will return to the lineup for Nick just in time as Joe Burrow goes on bye. But despite Nick’s dominance so far this season, I think this is a perfect opportunity for a sneak attack from Jess with so many injured starters (DeAndre Hopkins, Damien Harris, Antonio Brown) on Nick’s roster. Despite this, I think both teams will play well. And I wouldn’t be shocked at all if after this week, the #1 team owner in the Power Rankings is suddenly 5-5.
Finally, Alex (4-5) vs. Whitney (4-5) is a battle of the only two team owners with a five-game losing streak this season. But these are two teams headed in opposite directions. Alex is trending up after winning two straight games, and his team is only getting healthier. Meanwhile, Whitney is in complete free fall. Can she right the ship in time to save her season? Or will Alex get a critical win the week before the potential return of Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb?
As for the other games, Erik (4-5) takes on Josh (4-5). One of these two will get back to .500. The other will drop to 4-6, which makes this a key game. Samantha (5-4) hopes to get back on the winning track against Greco (3-6). And finally, can the lowly Brandon (4-5) stop Geoff (7-2) and his runaway train, winner of four straight games?
That’s it for Week 9. I know I suggested this week would be an abbreviated Power Rankings, but I found some time while on vacation to type out a few extra words. So it turned out this one was regular size. Hope you enjoyed it as much as I enjoyed sipping piña coladas on the beach while crunching the numbers, sand and salt seeping into the crevices of my keyboard.
Good luck to all in Week 10!
