Week 8 Power Rankings
Thank goodness for Daylight Saving Time.
With the extra hour last night, I had just enough time to finish this week’s Power Rankings. I would have gotten it to you earlier this week, but I spent most of my time fighting back tears over the loss of my beloved Derrick Henry. 😭
Given that kickoff is rapidly approaching, we’ve got no time to waste. Let’s dispense with the introduction and get right to it.
The Scoreboard
Erik won his first weekly prize this season.
Want proof that anything can happen in fantasy football? The bottom two teams in last week’s Power Rankings finished with the top two scores in Week 8. Unfortunately for one of them, they played each other.
Luckily for Erik, he was the one who came out on top, winning his first weekly prize in three years (more on that below). Meanwhile, Brandon added insult to Derrick Henry’s injury getting the loss despite the second-most points scored. It’s the first time the team with the second-best score has lost since Week 7 of last year. And it’s happened just 10 other times in league history. Ironically, Erik did it to Brandon previously in Week 5 of 2012.
As for the other games, HUUUUGE upset for Alex over Beth Ann. The win keeps him in the hunt and makes Beth Ann the only team owner among the Big Five without a record above .500. Meanwhile, all of the other favorites won with Nick, Gray, Geoff and Samantha all coming out on top. That leaves a crowded field of teams still gunning for the playoffs.
Power Rankings
A down week for Beth Ann allows Nick to get some breathing room at the top. But the Big Five remains those two plus Gray, Geoff and Samantha. You’ll see it later in the Playoff Picture, but all five have at least an 86% chance of making the playoffs.
As for the rest of the league, it’s anyone’s game. Truly. Last week, I put Whitney and Josh in a tier by themselves. But I’m less sure now. I could see a scenario where any of the group that includes Erik, Alex, Josh, Whitney, Jess, Brandon or Greco make the playoffs. They’re tightly bunched from sixth through 12th.
With that being said, let’s break it down as we do every week from first to worst.
Following his big week, Erik jumps four spots into a tie for sixth place.
1. Nick
5-3, .727 TW%, 139.9 ppg
Nick’s 114.16 points in a win over Josh were the second-fewest he’s scored this season. And yet, it was still among the top four scores of Week 8. Even with Antonio Brown out with an ankle injury for the second straight game, Nick continues to dominate in almost every statistical category, ranking first in TW%, points, scoring from WRs and receptions. He’s also the only team owner with three top-five players at RB/WR in Cooper Kupp (WR1), Austin Ekeler (RB3) and D’Andre Swift (RB4). And surprisingly, his QB play has actually improved since the Russell Wilson injury and subsequent Joe Burrow trade. With Wilson, Nick was averaging 19.7 ppg, which ranked ninth. But since Week 6, Nick is averaging 23.2 ppg from Burrow, which ranks first over that time. Really the only category he’s been trailing in this season is wins. But with three straight, he’s catching up there too.
2. Beth Ann
4-4, .636 TW%, 131.9 ppg
Well, that was a dud. In Week 8, Beth Ann was shockingly upset by Alex after scoring just 81.96 points, tied for the second-fewest by any team owner this season. What didn’t help was that with Kenyan Drake on bye, Beth Ann started Jamaal Williams who was a surprise inactive against the Eagles. There were also down games for Aaron Rodgers, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase who all had their second-worst or worst games of the season. Still, I would bet Beth Ann is poised for a bounce-back game in Week 9.
The only concern? The Aaron Rodgers fiasco. After testing positive for COVID-19 this week, it was revealed that Rodgers is not vaccinated despite claiming earlier this season that he was “immunized.” Now Rodgers will be out until at least next Saturday, which means he’s in danger of missing Week 10 as well. With the Packers’ bye in Week 13, it’s possible Rodgers only plays two of the next five games down the home stretch of the fantasy regular season. And with Trevor Lawrence (QB24) as her only backup, that could be a real problem for Beth Ann who already ranks 11th in QB scoring on the season.
3. Gray
5-3, .580 TW%, 126.3 ppg
After a narrow win over Greco, Gray has averaged just 101.6 points over his last two games with a TW% that ranks 10th. So why do I think this team is about to explode? The deepest, most productive RB room in the league (51.8 ppg) is about to add Christian McCaffrey to the mix. That means sometime soon Gray could be starting McCaffrey, Darrell Henderson (RB11) and Leonard Fournette (RB12). And that doesn’t even include Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Darrel Williams and Week 8’s top overall scorer, breakout rookie Michael Carter.
So yes, this team’s top strength is about to get even stronger, but the real boon is how its position of greatest weakness, WR, has been vastly improved. After averaging a league-low 22.9 ppg through the first eight weeks behind DeAndre Hopkins (WR14) and some combination of Marquez Callaway, Odell Beckham Jr., Emmanuel Sanders and Tim Patrick (none of which rank inside the top 30 at their position), his WR corps has gotten a much-needed facelift. With this week’s trade of Sanders and Adrian Peterson to Whitney for Terry McLaurin, Gray now has two top-15 WRs in McLaurin and CeeDee Lamb. Now, that is something he can work with.
Put it together, and I see a roster that includes Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey headlining the top RB group in the league, two explosive WRs in CeeDee Lamb and Terry McLaurin, plus Kyle Pitts who is now the top receiving option in Atlanta. That’s a recipe that could easily challenge Nick for the top spot sometime in the very near future.
4. Geoff (▲1)
6-2, .568 TW%, 126.5 ppg
In the history of the Worst League, no 6-2 team has ever missed the playoffs. That’s a good sign for Geoff who became the 13th team owner to start a season with a 6-2 record. All 12 of the teams that came before him went on to make the playoffs. And that includes five former champions. In fact, every champion from 2015-2019 started the season 6-2. Notably, Geoff’s lone championship in 2016 is included in that group. Also, with just one more win, Geoff will reach seven wins during the regular season for just the third time in his career and the first time since his championship season.
Is Geoff as good as his record would indicate? Probably not. In fact, he’s currently the “luckiest” team owner in the league with a differential of +.182 between his W% and TW%. And if we look at the roster, I see two glaring holes to fill at RB2 (currently Ty Johnson or Jeremy Nichols with Miles Sanders out) and flex (currently Devonta Smith who is WR42). But the rest of the roster (notably Lamar Jackson, Najee Harris, Tyreek Hill and Adam Thielen) is top notch. And with plenty of margin for error over the final six weeks, I see no reason why Geoff won’t coast to the postseason. And once you’re there, anything can happen.
5. Samantha (▼1)
5-3, .523 TW%, 124.7 ppg
The last of the Big Five, Samantha is walking between the raindrops this season as she picked up her second win of two points or less, defeating Jess 102.86-101.86 in Week 8. In fact, that one-point win was the closest margin of victory in the PPR era. Like Whitney, it’s also Samantha’s third game this season that was decided by less than two points.
But the biggest shakeup to Samantha’s roster this week was the news that Calvin Ridley, her second-round pick, was placed on the reserve/non-football injury list Friday for an undisclosed mental health issue. If anyone can understand this, it’s his team owner, Samantha. But with Ridley scheduled to miss the next three games, her WR depth is suddenly challenged. Most notably, after four games of 20+ points in his first five, Mike Williams has looked mortal with three games of five or less over his last four.
As a result, Samantha’s team is also looking mortal. Still, she finds herself safely in the company of the Big Five with a TW% over .500 and is still above-average in scoring. After two down weeks, maybe a bounce back is coming.
T6. Erik (▲4)
3-5, .466 TW%, 120.8 ppg
🚀🚀🚀
This week’s biggest riser is Erik who rocketed four spots up the Power Rankings into a tie for sixth. Joe Mixon went for 15+, which you know means that Erik got the win. But Mixon wasn’t the only one. There were also big games for Michael Pittman (30.6 points), Amari Cooper (26.2), Melvin Gordon (19.2) and Cordarrelle Patterson (18.2). As a result, Erik picked up his first weekly prize since Week 8 of 2018, exacting some revenge on Brandon who defeated Erik the last time they played in the first round of last year’s playoffs.
Speaking of the playoffs, if they started today, Josh (with a 4-4 record) would be the sixth and final playoff team behind the Big Five. But after him, you might be surprised to find that the computer likes 3-5 Erik next-best, giving him a 26% chance to make it.
Erik’s odds improved from 8% last week to 26% this week, the biggest jump in Week 8.
That’s even ahead of Whitney, who like Josh is also 4-4. Why? Erik currently ranks sixth in total points ahead of all teams outside the Big Five. That’s a huge advantage in the event of a tie. But it’s important to note that Erik’s points edge is not a massive gap. Just 92.64 points separate Erik from the team with the fewest total points scored (Whitney). With six games still to go, that’s just 15.44 ppg that need to be made up, which means truly anyone is still in play. That explains why the bottom seven teams have between a 6-40% chance. Likely, only one of them makes it. But your guess is as good as mine who it’s going to be.
T6. Alex (▲2)
3-5, .466 TW%, 113.4 ppg
No doubt the biggest upset of the week was Alex over Beth Ann. Big games for Chris Godwin (28.0 points) and Tyler Lockett (26.2) helped Alex put an end to a five-game losing streak and get his first win since Week 2. If Alex can somehow get a win this week with both Godwin and Lockett out, things may be looking up. Nick Chubb and Jerry Jeudy are back. And Saquon Barkley could be joining them as soon as Week 11 after the Giants’ Week 10 bye. The schedule includes two of his next three games against teams in the Big Five. But anything is possible. And Alex’s ceiling is tantalizing. Remember, he was third in the Power Rankings just four weeks ago. A healthy roster of Jalen Hurts, Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett and Dalton Schultz is nothing to sneeze at. But can they get healthy? And will it happen soon enough to overcome a 3-5 start? That’s the question.
8. Josh (▼1)
4-4, .455 TW%, 113.3 ppg
Since starting 3-1, Josh has lost three of his last four and is now back at .500. If not for a couple of missed field goals from Jason Myers in Week 7, Josh could be 3-5 right now while ranking 10th in total points scored. All of which is to say, this team is currently on shaky ground. Worse still, Kyler Murray, Antonio Gibson and Rob Gronkowski are currently banged up. Dawson Knox remains out. And this week, Mike Evans joins Gibson and Gronkowski on bye while Murray is not expected to play. The good news? He plays the recently Derrick Henry-less Brandon. So if he can survive this week with what is looking like Jordan Love, Devonta Freeman, K.J. Osborn and Jared Cook in his lineup, then perhaps things get better in the near future. But for now, Josh is 11th in TW% (.303) and points (97.9 ppg) over the last three weeks and has me a little worried for his future playoff prospects.
9. Whitney (▼3)
4-4, .420 TW%, 109.2 ppg
Whitney is in free fall. Her 79.4 points in a loss to Geoff this week were the fewest by any team owner this season. Worse, her brilliant 4-0 start has completely evaporated with four straight losses. Over the last four weeks, she’s 8-36 in true games (.182 TW%) and is averaging just 93.7 ppg while ranking 10th in RB scoring and 12th at WR, TE and D/ST. What happened? Kareem Hunt’s injury has revealed a lack of depth at RB2. And at WR, Terry McLaurin and DJ Moore went from averaging 19.6 and 22.4 ppg in the first four weeks to 11.8 and 10.7 ppg in the four games since. That explains the reason for this week’s trade where Whitney swapped McLaurin (a second-round pick in this year’s draft) for Emmanuel Sanders (11.9 ppg over his last four, slightly better than McLaurin) and Adrian Peterson (now the starting RB in Tennessee). With Tom Brady, her top-performing player, on bye in Week 9, this could be another tough outing for Whitney. If she loses a fifth-straight game, she’s in real danger of becoming the first team to start 4-0 to miss the playoffs, especially considering she currently ranks last in the league in total points scored.
T10. Jess (▼1)
3-5, .398 TW%, 117.4 ppg
In Week 8, Jess was undone by some tough roster decisions. Specifically, the questionable decisions to sit Robert Woods and recent trade acquisition Keenan Allen for Courtland Sutton and Randall Cobb cost her the victory over Samantha. Losing by just one point, starting either Woods or Allen would have been the difference in the game.
As a result, Jess suffered an unfortunate setback that drops her to 3-5 despite her recent hot play as of late. Still she ranks second in scoring among teams outside the Big Five and is very much in play for a playoff spot. And with one of the deepest rosters in the league (she led all team owners in Week 8 with 97.6 points scored from her bench), there’s plenty of reason for optimism. A lineup that includes Jonathan Taylor plus Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen and Robert Woods at WR is one that definitely feels like it should be better than tied for 10th in the Power Rankings. Given her Week 9 matchup, I like Jess’s chances to bounce back and would be my choice for the dark horse most likely to emerge from outside the Big Five and make the playoffs.
T10. Brandon (▲1)
3-5, .398 TW%, 111.8 ppg
💔💔💔
Derrick Henry, this year’s RB1 with 40 points more than the next-closest competitor, suffered a Jones fracture to the fifth metatarsal bone of his right foot and is now out for the next 6-10 weeks and likely the season.
For a team that was playing its best football over the last three weeks, that’s heartbreaking. In fact, over the last three weeks, Brandon was second in TW% (.697) and third in scoring (126.6 ppg). Only Nick was better. Even without Dak Prescott who was out with an injury in Week 8, Brandon had the second-highest score. And for a brief moment, we saw a vision of a lineup that included Dak Prescott at QB, Derrick Henry and Elijah Mitchell (18.2 ppg in his last two games) at RB, plus a resurgent A.J. Brown (29.4 ppg in his last two), Stefon Diggs and either Jaylen Waddle or Kadarius Toney at WR. If not for a Daniel Carlson missed FG in Week 4 and an unlucky matchup with Erik in Week 8, Brandon could be 5-3 with one of the hottest teams in the league.
But alas, that’s fantasy football. And now there’s a Derrick Henry-size hole in this roster that no one player can replace. Specifically, prior to the injury in Week 8, Derrick Henry accounted for 24% of Brandon’s total points scored. That’s a huge blow.
12. Greco (▼2)
3-5, .364 TW%, 115.3 ppg
Playing without Davante Adams and Marquise Brown in Week 8, Greco’s subs were not able to pick up the slack, resulting in a 108.9-100.72 loss to Gray. Worse, James Robinson (who had been a bright spot for Greco) was forced out of last week’s game with a heel injury and is expected to miss Week 9 as well. The loss drops her two spots into last place in the Power Rankings for the first time since Week 4. This week, Adams and Brown are back. But Robinson and DK Metcalf will miss, which means Greco’s depth will continue to be tested.
I remain bullish on Greco’s pass catchers. But if Robinson misses more time and Justin Herbert continues to struggle (two straight games of less than 14 points), it’s going to be hard for Greco to fight her way back to playoff contention.
Looking Ahead to Week 9
Big game this week between Nick (5-3) and Geoff (6-2). It’s the league’s best team vs. the team with the best record. I expect both of these team owners to make the playoffs, so there’s potential for this game to be a playoff preview.
I’m also super intrigued by the matchup between Gray (5-3) and Erik (3-5). With Christian McCaffrey back, Gray looks poised for a big game. But Erik, coming off his first weekly prize, is no slouch. And Carson Wentz and Michael Pittman already had big games on Thursday. I could see that game going either way.
As for the rest of the league, Alex, Jess, Brandon and Greco will hope to spring upsets over Samantha, Whitney, Josh and Beth Ann, respectively. Can Whitney end her four-game slide? And will a juicy matchup between Alex and Samantha entertain as it always does.
That’s it for this week. Samantha and I are heading out of town next week for vacation. So heads up, you can probably expect an abbreviated Power Rankings next week. Thanks as always for reading. And good luck to all in Week 9!
