Week 5 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Sorry for the delay this week. It’s been my goal each week to get these out before the games start on Thursday. And I’ve done that now six weeks in a row (the season preview, draft recap and first four weeks of the season). But when you’ve been averaging around 5,000 words per week and the games aren’t technically over until late Monday night, that really only gives you 48-72 hours. And I do have a day job. So…

That’s why you’re reading this over the weekend. But in my defense, just as I was getting real close to publishing this thing on Thursday night, my phone lit up with a notification that a massive, blockbuster trade had just gone down.

That’s right. Nick traded this year’s first overall pick, Christian McCaffrey (with handcuff Chuba Hubbard), plus CeeDee Lamb and Emmanuel Sanders to Gray for a package that includes Austin Ekeler, DeAndre Hopkins and Joe Burrow.

By the numbers, that’s Nick’s first-, third- and 12th-round picks (plus an undrafted free agent) for Gray’s first-, second- and 12th-round picks. Or by their production on the field this season, it’s the RB4 (McCaffrey + Hubbard), WR23 (Lamb) and WR20 (Sanders) for the RB2 (Ekeler), WR16 (Hopkins) and QB19 (Burrow). Pretty even.

I’ve said before that I’m done evaluating who “wins” or “loses” trades. Trades aren’t about getting one over on another member of the league anyway. It’s about finding deals that are mutually beneficial for both parties involved.

And after my brain finished melting from the shock value of seeing McCaffrey moved in a deal, I get this one. Nick (who has already dealt with a year’s worth of McCaffrey injuries) gets a replacement in Ekeler who is playing just as well on a high-powered offense, plus an upgrade at WR in Hopkins. AND he gets a possible streamer in Burrow while Russell Wilson is out with injury.

Meanwhile, Gray gets McCaffrey. Yes, he’s still recovering from a hamstring injury, but when healthy, there’s no one better in fantasy. Plus, Gray improves his situation at WR. Remember, prior to this week, Gray ranked last in WR scoring with just 21.2 ppg. By contrast, Lamb and Sanders are averaging 29.7 ppg. So that’s a start. And as the owner of Mahomes, Gray doesn’t need Burrow.

What I’m more interested in is the record-breaking nature of the deal. Specifically, this is the first time the #1 overall player in the draft has been traded. In fact, prior to this deal, only nine first-rounders have been traded in Worst League history. They are:

Arian Foster (Pick: 6, Jess 2011)
C.J. Spiller (Pick: 7, Terryn 2013)
Matt Forte (Pick: 8, Josh 2015)
Jimmy Graham (Pick: 9, Geoff 2014)
Jeremy Hill (Pick: 9, Brandon 2015)
DeMarco Murray (Pick: 10, JT 2015)
Maurice Jones-Drew (Pick: 12, Brandon 2013)
LeSean McCoy (Pick: 12, Trevor 2015)
DeAndre Hopkins (Pick: 12, Trevor 2018)

Note: the owner that drafted and traded away the player is listed in parenthesis.

The ones most similar to this deal are probably the 2015 preseason exchange of Matt Forte for DeMarco Murray after JT had some buyer’s remorse for auto-drafting a Philadelphia Eagle. And the late-season exchange between Brandon and Trevor of Jeremy Hill for LeSean McCoy, also in 2015.

But never has the #1 pick been traded. Probably because it takes guts to do that deal. Too often, we’re more afraid of the deals we could make than the ones we never do, inflating the value of our own players and undervaluing the potential of would-be acquisitions. But that’s what fantasy football is all about. Crafting and perfecting your lineup amidst the constantly shifting value of players. And nothing is more emblematic of that than this deal.

I think Josh put it best on the group chat:

If anyone wants to do a cool huge trade like that, lmk.

Couldn’t agree more.

The Scoreboard

Greco, last week’s 12th-place team, won this week’s weekly prize.

The underdogs strike back!

All three of the bottom-three teams in last week’s Power Rankings picked up key wins in Week 5 with Brandon, Jess and Greco upsetting Whitney, Alex and Geoff, respectively. I don’t know what was most surprising—the fact that previously undefeated Whitney lost to Brandon despite him only scoring 102.28 points or that Greco, the owner of the league’s worst team, won the weekly prize with a career best 180.12 points. It’s a good reminder that anything is possible from week to week.

Also picking up a key win was Gray who defeated Nick, giving the league’s early frontrunner an unexpected three-game losing streak. Speaking of streaks—but the good kind—Beth Ann and Samantha have now won three straight games, defeating Josh and Erik this week to rebound from 0-2 starts to get to 3-2. Finally, Erik’s loss means he was the only one of the underdogs not to win this week and the loss drops him to a league-worst record of 1-4.

Power Rankings

Despite her loss this week, Whitney is still 4-1 with the best record in the league. But she’s not the team owner at the top of our Power Rankings. And for the first time this season, neither is her husband. After leading the pack for the first four weeks, Nick was finally passed up in Week 5, which means for the first time this season we have a new leader on the board.

So, let’s count ‘em down from first to worst.

A new leader emerges from the pack—Beth Ann jumps from ninth in Week 2 to the top spot in Week 5.

1. Beth Ann (▲1)
3-2, .727 TW%, 137.9 ppg

From 0-2 to the top of the Power Rankings! Over the last three weeks, Beth Ann leads the league in wins (three), TW% (.909) and scoring (152.2 ppg). She’s absolutely on fire. The biggest difference has been the play of Mark Andrews. The Ravens TE went from averaging 7.9 ppg in the first two weeks to 23.1 ppg since, including 41.7 points on Monday night—by far the most points scored by a TE in the Worst League this season. Andrews is now TE2 on the season, trailing only Travis Kelce. The only gripe? She keeps missing out on those weekly prizes, having finished with the second-highest score in the league for the third week in a row.

2. Nick (▼1)
2-3, .655 TW%, 134.5 ppg

Dethroned from the top spot for the first time this year, Nick has been quietly average since Christian McCaffrey’s injury. After opening the season with two weekly prizes in a row, he ranks ninth in TW% (.424) and seventh in points (118.0 ppg) over the last three weeks. Worse, he’s now lost three games in a row to drop to 2-3. And now the injuries mount as Russell Wilson’s grizzly finger injury has sent Nick scrambling to the wire for a replacement. But these are the sorts of obstacles many teams face at some point in the season. And despite the loss to Gray, he did score 130+ points this week. Plus, the trade for Ekeler, Hopkins and Burrow should give this team an immediate shot in the arm, which means there’s a good chance Nick bounces back with a win especially because… (checks notes) yup, he plays me this week. Perfect.

3. Samantha (▲2)
3-2, .636 TW%, 135.3 ppg

So much for a lack of RB depth. One week after Myles Gaskin totaled just 0.3 points, the Miami Dolphin scored 31.9 points, albeit on Samantha’s bench. Luckily for her, he wasn’t the only RB that went off. In fact, Samantha had three RBs go for 25+ points, including Gaskin, Ezekiel Elliott and Alexander Mattison, all of which finished in the top eight at their position in Week 5. She won’t always be able to count on Mattison, but when Dalvin Cook is out, he’s been awesome. Lastly, Mike Williams (36.5 points and currently WR2 on the season) is a bonafide star. He along with Josh Allen and Zeke give Samantha one of only two rosters with a top-five player at QB, RB and WR. Can you guess the other? Keep scrolling to find out.

4. Gray (▲3)
3-2, .600 TW%, 126.9 ppg

Well, hello Kyle Pitts. The rookie TE and fifth-round pick had a breakout game, scoring 26.9 points in an impressive win over Nick. The win vaults Gray to his highest spot in the Power Rankings this season where he continues to lead the league in RB scoring (51.5 ppg) but ranks dead last at WR (21.2 ppg). Though that should improve with the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders. Either way, the arrangement seems to be working out just fine as Gray posted his highest point total of the season in Week 5. As a result, Gray saw the biggest jump in this week’s Playoff Picture with his odds rising from 37% to 79%.

Gray’s playoff chances rose by 42% while Alex’s fell by 48%.

The only bad news for Gray this week? The MCL sprain to third-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s knee means he will miss at least the next three weeks. But if anyone can withstand an injury to a key RB, it’s Gray who will hardly miss Edwards-Helaire considering he can turn to Leonard Fournette (RB15), Damien Williams (16.4 points in David Montgomery’s absence last week but now on the Reserve/COVID-19 list) or even CEH’s backup, Darrel Williams.

T5. Geoff (▲2)
3-2, .564 TW%, 131.1 ppg

The other team with a top-five QB, RB and WR? That’s Geoff. (Did you guess right?) Lamar Jackson, Najee Harris and Tyreek Hill combined for 78.88 points in Week 5, but it was not enough going against weekly prize winner, Greco, in not just the highest-scoring week of the season, but the highest-scoring week in league history. In Week 5, teams averaged 131.3 ppg. (For reference, league average during the PPR era is 119.1 ppg.) So I’m not worried about Geoff whose 136.68 points were the most in a loss this season and the fifth-most in a loss all time. That’s just bad luck. And as a result, he rises up the Power Rankings despite the bad outcome in the win/loss column. What’s more promising is that he is one of only two owners (the other being Josh) with four games of 125+ points this season.

T5. Whitney (▼2)
4-1, .564 TW%, 119.8 ppg

There are no more undefeated teams! Who would have thought Whitney’s 4-0 start would come to an end against what is now (spoiler alert!) the worst team in the league? But after the narrow 102.28-100.54 loss to Brandon thanks to zero points from the Ravens D/ST on Monday night, Whitney drops to 4-1. That’s still the best record in the league, but her TW% is just average, and she actually ranks eighth in the league in points, having never scored more than 132—a feat accomplished by every other team owner except Brandon.

The reason, at least lately, is that Whitney has been ravaged by injury. Dalvin Cook and Sterling Shepard missed their second games in three weeks, George Kittle joined Michael Gallup on IR, Dallas Goedert just tested positive for COVID-19 and—worst of all—JuJu Smith-Schuster is now out for the season with a right shoulder injury. To recap, those are injuries to her first-, third-, sixth-, ninth- and 10th-round picks, plus a 16th-round pick who was averaging 20.9 ppg before injury. So kudos to Whitney. Honestly, it’s a miracle she’s done this well.

T7. Josh (▼2)
3-2, .545 TW%, 122.5 ppg

Josh’s three-game win streak finally came to an end this week against Beth Ann despite a respectable 128.78 points. That total could have been even higher if not for the gutsy (homer-ish?) decision to play Alex Collins (9.2 points) over second-round pick, Antonio Gibson (21.2). Chase Claypool also looked good, scoring 24.0 points in Josh’s IR slot in his first game back from a hamstring injury, which has me wondering if long-term Claypool might push trade acquisition Tee Higgins out of the starting lineup. Of course, both will be useful during the bye weeks.

Finally, the QB dilemma had its worst week yet. Averaging just 13.0 ppg from QBs (last in the league), Josh has a knack for picking the weeks not to stream a QB. Sam Darnold’s 6.08 points on Sunday has Josh turning to the new flavor of the week, Carson Wentz (22.58 points in Week 5) or even—dare I say it—Geno Smith, Russell Wilson’s backup. Josh has yet to have a QB score more than 16.54 points this season. If he can figure out that position, look for him to rise up the rankings.

T7. Alex (▼4)
2-3, .545 TW%, 122.4 ppg

Even Mr. Consistent is allowed a dud, right? After four straight games of between 120-140 points, Alex had his first stinker, finishing with the second-fewest points this week in a loss to Jess. Personally, I think it’s karma for benching Jalen Hurts. (Wut you doin’, QB whisperer?!) That makes him the biggest faller, dropping four spots in this week’s Power Rankings and seeing his playoff chances fall from 78% to 30%. Still, he remains firmly in the hunt and just 44 points back of Geoff, Gray and Josh for some key tiebreakers. If I’m Alex, I’m not sweating it. What I am worried about, however, is the ankle injury to Saquon Barkley. The Giants RB looked rejuvenated these last few weeks. Hopefully, his absence will be short-lived. But in the meanwhile, with the possibility of Nick Chubb also missing this week’s game with a calf injury, Alex is extremely thin at RB (a result of the Gus Edwards injury, which has not reared its head until now). Things could get bumpy…

9. Erik
1-4, .345 TW%, 117.8 ppg

Make it stop! Erik dropped his fourth straight game this week, scoring the fewest points of any team this year. Unfortunately, his hot start to the season seems like a long time ago. After scoring 172.16 points in Week 1 and coming up just short of the weekly prize, Erik ranks last in wins (zero), TW% (.205) and points (104.2 ppg) in the four weeks since. If Joe Mixon hadn’t played last week, it could have been worse as there is very little RB depth to speak of on this roster. And to make matters worse at WR, Kenny Golladay made an early exit Sunday with an injury of his own. If I’m looking on the bright side, Julio Jones may return in Week 6. And Laviska Shenault should get more work with DJ Chark sidelined. Michael Pittman also looks great. But this team will only go as far as Kyler Murray and Travis Kelce can carry it, which is hopefully to a win in the near future. Currently, this is Erik’s longest losing streak since he lost seven games in a row to end the 2019 season. That’s some history he definitely hopes not to repeat.

10. Greco (▲2)
2-3, .327 TW%, 114.2 ppg

Last week, I pegged Greco as the underdog most likely to upset her opponent, but even I didn’t see this coming. Her 180.12 points en route to a weekly prize were the most scored in a single game in her career, eclipsing the 159.32 points she scored in the second round of last year’s playoffs. And finally, the aerial attack we imagined after the draft has come to fruition. Davante Adams (37.6 points), DK Metcalf (26.8) and Marquise Brown (33.5) combined for a ridiculous 97.9 points—more than Erik’s or Alex’s entire teams scored this week. That’s easily the most points from any position group in a single game this season as all three currently rank within the top 10 at WR. It might be too early to give her team a nickname, but just know I’m workshopping all the Top Gun-themed names in the back of my head. If Justin Herbert (highest scorer in Week 5) and James Robinson (20+ points in three straight weeks) can continue to support her top-flight WRs, expect Greco to rise up the rankings quickly. In fact, the rest of the league may have just entered the Danger Zone. Hmm… 🤔

11. Jess
2-3, .273 TW%, 110.7 ppg

Wait… I think we have a pulse! Joining Greco with a big breakout game, Jess had her first game with above-average scoring, totaling 143.4 points in a win over Alex. There’s the third-round pick we thought we were getting in Robert Woods (27.0 points on 14 targets). Nice to see you, Josh Jacobs (16.7 points in his second game back from injury). And thanks so much for finally showing up, Jonathan Taylor (first game of 30+ points this season). Now if only Jess could figure out when to start Courtland Sutton, having started him in Weeks 3-4 (8.2 ppg) and benched him in Weeks 2 and 5 (24.95 ppg), she’d be in great shape.

12. Brandon (▼2)
2-3, .218 TW%, 102.9 ppg

Well, a win’s a win. After losing a rock fight last week to Samantha by less than two points, Brandon came out on top this time, narrowly upsetting formerly undefeated Whitney by a similar margin. But make no mistake, this is a bad team right now that is lucky to be 2-3. In fact, with Greco and Jess’s performances in Week 5, Brandon is now the only team owner without a score of at least 115 points and the only one who has finished among the bottom-five scorers every single week.

When’s the last time Brandon ranked last in the Power Rankings? You have to go back to Week 4 of 2016, a little more than five years ago. That season, he finished ninth, lucked into the playoffs, upset Gray and somehow came within a few points of a championship. But he needed a lot of luck and a breakout campaign from an overlooked rookie WR named Tyreek Hill to do it. Hmm… sounds familiar. Might Kadarius Toney be this year’s Hill? The Giants WR scored 29.6 points in Week 5 (more than any of Brandon’s WRs this season), reminding fans of a young Odell Beckham Jr., another of Brandon’s mid-season free agent pickups from 2014. Here’s hoping Toney can follow in their footsteps. If not, might as well start making plans for the Poop Bowl.

Looking Ahead to Week 6

This week’s most intriguing matchup is Beth Ann vs. Geoff. Both team owners are 3-2 and ranked within the top five of the Power Rankings. They’re also the hottest two teams over the last two weeks, averaging 157.7 and 146.5 ppg. Winner gets to 4-2. Loser falls to 3-3. Big stakes, considering that 71% of 4-2 teams have gone on to make the playoffs compared to just 45% of 3-3 teams.

Josh and Samantha have also been nearly as strong over the last few weeks and face off with matching 3-2 records. Also at 3-2, Gray takes on Alex, but will be without recently traded Austin Ekeler or his replacement Christian McCaffrey, who is expected to sit out this game.

Among the teams with losing records, Nick faces Brandon while Greco takes on Jess. Considering how divergent their play has been this season, it’s shocking that both Nick and Brandon have matching 2-3 records. One of them will be 3-3 after this week. Could you imagine if it’s Brandon? I’m hoping it’s not, but betting this is a get-right game for Nick. And with two of the league’s early cellar-dwellers facing off, we’re guaranteed to see either Greco or Jess get back to .500 despite 1-3 starts.

Finally, the teams with the best (Whitney) and worst (Erik) records face off. Erik desperately needs this one to get back on the right track, but I’m sure Whitney would love nothing more than to put some distance between her and the rest of the teams in the standings. If Mixon plays, I actually think Erik has a good chance. Currently, the ESPN projections give Erik a 51% chance.

That’s it for Week 5. Good luck to everyone in the coming week!