Week 6 Power Rankings
The bye weeks are upon us!
Some have called this week “Byemageddon.” With the Bills, Cowboys, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers and Jaguars all on bye, that’s a lot of fantasy-relevant players, which makes it all-the-more-important to have depth on your roster in order to withstand absences from key starters.
So this week, I went back and looked at how each team owner has fared before and during the bye weeks. Whose success has been most hindered and who thrives during the mid-season chaos? To do that, I looked at every team owner’s TW% during weeks when at least one team was on bye and compared that with their TW% when no teams were on bye. The difference between those two numbers is an indicator of how well you’ve been able to handle the bye weeks historically.
Here’s the list from best to worst:
Samantha: +.157 TW%
Gray: +.137 TW%
Brandon: +.069 TW%
Jess: +.057 TW%
Geoff: +.009 TW%
Erik: -.013 TW%
Greco: -.021 TW%
Alex: -.052 TW%
Nick: -.082 TW%
Whitney: -.100 TW%
Josh: -.129 TW%
Beth Ann: -.275 TW%
You might be surprised to see that Samantha comes out on top. In three-and-a-half seasons now, Samantha’s TW% actually improves during the bye weeks from .390 to .547—a difference of +.157. Which actually makes sense when you consider that Samantha has always started the season slow before turning it on late.
Other team owners who improve during the bye weeks include Gray, Brandon, Jess and Geoff. Notably, Gray really excels during the bye weeks with a change from a respectable .543 to a dominant .680. He’s also the only team owner whose scoring actually increases during the bye weeks. For his career, Gray averages +3.5 ppg more during the bye weeks than during non-bye weeks. That’s crazy.
On the flip side, the team owners who most struggle during bye weeks are Beth Ann, Josh and Whitney, whose TW% all drop by 10% or more. In Beth Ann’s case, she goes from a world-beating .696 to a pedestrian .421, averaging 26.6 ppg fewer during bye weeks than non-bye weeks. That’s a big drop off. And though his career TW% is now second among all team owners, Josh’s TW% during bye weeks dips from a punishing .655 to an ordinary .526.
Lastly, I’ll just note that, with the exception of Gray who somehow averages more points during the bye weeks, this doesn’t necessarily mean that some teams are actually improving without key starters. But they are getting better relative to their competition. Or put another way, getting less worse.
And isn’t that a goal we can all aspire to? To be less worse.
The Scoreboard
Gray won his first weekly prize since 2019.
In Week 6, Gray led all scorers with 172.88 points, winning his first weekly prize of the season and his first since 2019 (more on that below). But this week’s biggest wins were for Geoff and Samantha, who defeated tough opponents in Beth Ann and Josh. They along with Gray improve to 4-2 where they are joined by Whitney who has now lost two games in a row and whose early lead in the standings has now evaporated.
Other key wins this week included Jess over Greco and Erik over Whitney, which keeps the latter in the playoff hunt and the former at the head of the league’s lower class. Finally, Nick gets an easy but important win over Brandon to improve his record to 3-3, just one game back of the leaders.
Power Rankings
After nearly winning his third weekly prize in six weeks, Nick ensured that Beth Ann’s reign on top of the Power Rankings was short-lived. But he’s not the only one making a push up the rankings this week as Gray is suddenly hot on his heels. And most interestingly this week, I’m finally starting to notice a little separation between the league’s top five teams, the middle three and the bottom four.
So without further ado, let’s count it down from best to worst…
Nick is back on top for the fifth time in six weeks this season.
1. Nick (▲1)
3-3, .697 TW%, 140.1 ppg
Nick is back on top! After trading away Christian McCaffrey just days before it was announced he would be returning to IR (nice timing), Nick had his best game since Week 1, scoring 167.74 points and nearly claiming his third weekly prize. New trade acquisitions Austin Ekeler and DeAndre Hopkins were actually outscored by outgoing players Chuba Hubbard and CeeDee Lamb 30.0-49.6. But Joe Burrow filled in nicely for injured Russell Wilson, totaling 22.84 points—Burrow’s best game this season. Most importantly, the win over Brandon ends a three-game losing streak for Nick and gets him back to .500 on the season. Not only that, but he reclaims his scoring lead from Beth Ann, overtaking both her and Samantha in the process.
Make no mistake, this is the best team in the league and it’s a credit to Nick for continually reshaping it with an excellent draft, two trades and a litany of shrewd pickups. Remember, in Week 1, Nick was starting Christian McCaffrey (currently RB31) and Damien Harris (RB27). Now, he’s upgraded to Austin Ekeler (RB2) and D’Andre Swift (RB7). Not to mention he has three top-15 WRs (Cooper Kupp, DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown) plus Darren Waller (TE4). The only weakness is at QB, and Wilson could be back for the playoffs. Given that five of Nick’s next six games are against teams in the bottom half of the Power Rankings, he’s in good shape to improve his record as we move into the middle part of the season.
T2. Gray (▲2)
4-2, .667 TW%, 134.6 ppg
“Gray scoring 170 with CMC on the bench is wild”
No doubt. I couldn’t have put it any better than Josh did in the group chat earlier this week. With 172.88 points scored in a victory over Alex, Gray had his best game of the season, winning his first weekly prize since Week 11 of 2019. And he didn’t even need Darrel Williams’ 23.9 points on the bench or Kyle Pitts on bye to do it.
After spending most of this season mired in the middle of the pack, Gray has the hottest team over the last three weeks, rising from seventh to second place. In that time, he’s first in wins (three), TW% (.848) and points (149.6 ppg), averaging a ridiculous 66.9 ppg from RBs. Now imagine what this team will be like when McCaffrey returns. If McCaffrey returns. And that’s the question, isn’t it?
For now he’s second, his highest spot in the Power Rankings since the final week of 2019, which also happens to be his last championship season. And with last week’s trade, despite the absence of McCaffrey, things may be looking up, especially at WR. Thanks in part to CeeDee Lamb’s career day, Gray scored 50.2 ppg from WRs—the first time he’s topped 30 this season.
T2. Beth Ann (▼2)
3-3, .667 TW%, 133.8 ppg
Beth Ann’s hot streak came to an end this week. With the decisive loss to Geoff, she drops two spots into third place and is now back at .500. The biggest problem? The injury to David Montgomery. Last week, a big game from Alvin Kamara was able to make up for Montgomery’s absence. But in Week 6 with Kamara on bye, Beth Ann totaled just 15.5 points from the RB position, the third-fewest of any team owner in a single game this season. There’s just not much depth there beyond Kamara.
The good news is that Kamara is back from his bye. And luckily, her WR group is still tops in the league, averaging 55.8 ppg, ahead even of Greco’s top-flight trio. But until Montgomery returns, which may not be until Week 11 after the Bears’ bye week, it will continue to be a bit of an adventure, especially this week with both Justin Jefferson and Diontae Johnson on bye.
4. Samantha (▼2)
4-2, .636 TW%, 134.9 ppg
With a breezy 133.02-83.46 win over Josh, Samantha runs her win streak to four games, the longest active streak in the league. It’s also Samantha’s longest win streak since she won six consecutive games from Weeks 7-12 of 2019. Powering her to her latest victory was the play of her pass-catchers, most notably Marvin Jones (23.0 points), Brandin Cooks (17.9) and T.J. Hockenson (15.4) who all had bounce back games. That was especially impressive considering Calvin Ridley was on bye while Mike Williams had just his second game of less than 20 points. After a slow start, Josh Allen is also now QB1 on the season. And after Lamar Jackson’s quiet game for Geoff, Samantha is now the only team owner with a top-five player at QB (Allen), RB (Ezekiel Elliott) and WR (Mike Williams).
The one inconsistent part of Samantha’s game remains RB2. Gaskin continued his yo-yo play, scoring just 3.4 points one week after totaling 30+. This week, her RB depth will be especially tested considering Ezekiel Elliott (RB4) will be on bye, leaving Gaskin (RB20) and James Conner (RB22) to do the heavy lifting. If fact, no team owner is more impacted by this week’s so-called “Byemageddon” than Samantha who will be without three starters in Josh Allen, Ezekiel Elliott and Mike Williams, not to mention potential fill-in Marvin Jones. If she can keep her win streak going without her all-star QB/RB/WR triumvirate, that will be especially impressive.
5. Geoff
4-2, .591 TW%, 133.4 ppg
With the exception of one dud in Week 3, Geoff has been great with five out of six games of 125+ points. This week, he put an end to Beth Ann’s win streak while improving his record to 4-2. And if you look at the Power Rankings, I believe we finally have a little bit of separation. Specifically, we have a top tier that starts with Nick and ends here with Geoff. All five of these team owners are winning 59-70% of their true games (about two-thirds), while averaging 130+ ppg. It’s no surprise that they’ve all won a weekly prize with the sole exception of Beth Ann, who notably finished as the runner-up three times, herself.
In Week 6, Geoff led all team owners in receptions with 39, which is tied with Nick’s Week 1 for the most this season. Key was the play of Noah Fant who had his best game of the year, scoring 24.7 points on nine receptions. Geoff’s trio of Lamar Jackson (QB6), Najee Harris (RB3) and Tyreek Hill (WR2) remain the stars of this team, but Fant’s play is encouraging as is Adam Thielen’s (WR11). So far the strength of those studs have been enough to make up for the disappointing play of Geoff’s two Philadelphia Eagles, Miles Sanders (just one double-digit game since Week 1) and DeVonta Smith (a hit-or-miss WR39). TySon Williams has also not emerged as hoped after the preseason injury to Gus Edwards. Still, this is a really solid team, deserving of its record.
6. Whitney (▼1)
4-2, .500 TW%, 115.2 ppg
Uh oh… there may be trouble in paradise. After starting 4-0, Whitney has lost two games in a row, scoring fewer than 101 points in both. This team was already a little “overrated,” having won one more game than expected based on TW%, but now Kareem Hunt’s injury (a calf injury that has landed him on IR) makes the league’s early frontrunner mortal. Just two weeks ago, Whitney had a 97% chance to make the playoffs as one of only six team owners in league history to start the season with a 4-0 record. But now, the Playoff Picture has shifted…
Whitney’s chances dropped from 97% in Week 4 to 59% in Week 6.
Her odds are down to 59%. That’s still more likely than not, but it’s a drop of 38%. And despite her 4-2 record, she’d still only be the four seed if the playoffs started today. That’s because she trails all of the 4-2 and 3-3 teams in points and actually ranks 10th overall, leading only Greco and Brandon, the league’s two worst teams.
And this week, she will be tested like never before. With Kareem Hunt out and Dalvin Cook on bye, she’s looking at starting David Johnson (RB51) and Brandon Bolden (RB64) at RB. Woof. Don’t get me wrong. Whitney has been dealt a tough hand. Arguably, no one has been more ravaged by injury than she has. Her third- (George Kittle), fifth- (Kareem Hunt), sixth- (JuJu Smith-Schuster) and ninth-round (Michael Gallup) picks are all out with injury. Dalvin Cook is on bye. And now Sterling Shepard is questionable for this game as well. That’s tough. Suddenly, one of the early favorites is looking a little wobbly.
7. Alex
2-4, .470 TW%, 117.1 ppg
That’s two bad games in a row for Alex, both with 100 points or less. This week, he posted a season-low 90.5 points in an absolute demolition at the hands of Gray. But can you blame him? Here’s a list of ALL the RBs Alex drafted in this year’s draft:
Saquon Barkley
Nick Chubb
Gus Edwards
Nyheim Hines
Of those four, only Hines (RB47) is healthy. Barkley remains out with an ankle injury. Chubb unexpectedly missed Week 6 with a calf injury (and already missed his Week 7 game on Thursday night). And Edwards is long gone, having torn his ACL during the preseason. Thankfully, Alex was able to snag Khalil Herbert on the waiver wire, who has been great with both David Montgomery and Damien Williams sidelined in Chicago. But it explains why Alex went from second in RB scoring in Weeks 3-4 to last in the two weeks since. And now Williams is back. Rut-roh.
But the sneaky reason Alex has struggled in recent weeks has been the play of Chris Godwin and Tyler Lockett. In their first two games, the duo combined for 5 TDs while averaging 48.8 ppg. Since that time, they have 0 TDs and are averaging just 20.3 ppg. It appears Godwin and Lockett are two birds of the same feather—feast-or-famine WRs on potent offenses with QBs that like to spread the ball around. And with Chubb and Barkley sidelined, Alex’s team is starving for points. That being said, you gotta think the feast is coming soon. Right?
8. Josh (▼1)
3-3, .455 TW%, 116.0 ppg
Josh lost the battle on Sunday to Samantha. But he may have won the war.
Yes, Josh’s season-low 83.46 points were not only the third-fewest this season, but the fewest points he’s scored in the PPR era. But I’m willing to chalk this one up to some bad luck. After big Week 5s of 20 points or more, Antonio Gibson (4.4 points), Mike Evans (4.7) and Chase Claypool (3.7) all had pedestrian Week 6s. Ditto for Dawson Knox (7.5 points after two straight games of 20+) who broke his hand. That’s the ebb and flow of fantasy, folks. Sometimes the planets just align and the fates conspire to kill your fantasy team.
But in the long run, I think this week was a net positive for Josh. That’s because Josh acquired Kyler Murray (QB4) in a trade with Erik and, as a result, had his first game of more than 16.54 points from the position. Now he goes from a team averaging 13.0 ppg from QB to a player averaging 24.5 ppg. I don’t have to do the math to tell you that’s a big improvement. And the cost? An undrafted player he picked up in free agency in Week 2. Assuming Antonio Gibson’s health (which is not a given), Josh should be able to sustain the loss of Cordarrelle Patterson with Tee Higgins (now healthy) sliding into his vacated spot in the flex. Though he cedes the title of most dominant RB group to either Gray or Nick, I think this makes his a more balanced team.
Fun fact about this trade: both Josh and Erik traded away their team namesakes in the deal with Justin Fields departing Fields of Dreams and Cobra Kyler now being Kyler-less.
T9. Erik
2-4, .364 TW%, 118.4 ppg
As goes Joe Mixon, so goes Erik.
This week, Mixon scored 26.3 points, his first game of more than 15 points since Week 1. Not coincidentally, Erik picked up his first win since the season opener, ending a four-game losing streak. It’s a small sample size, but when Mixon tops 15 points, Erik wins. If he doesn’t, he loses. And is that so surprising? In our post-draft reactions, we noted how Erik was heavily reliant on Mixon.
Erik was the second-to-last team owner to draft a RB, selecting Joe Mixon with the 18th overall pick in the second round. And he was the very last to draft an RB2, waiting until the eighth round to select Melvin Gordon, currently the backup in a committee in Denver. His ninth round pick? Ronald Jones, also a backup, in Tampa Bay. Same goes for Buffalo’s Devin Singletary in the 11th and Seattle’s Rashaad Penny in the 13th. Which means there’s technically only one starting RB on this roster. For now.
Six weeks later and, depending on how you feel about Melvin Gordon (RB18), that’s still mostly true. Until now. Erik’s difficult decision to part with Kyler Murray for a package that included Cordarrelle Patterson, Carson Wentz and Justin Fields was probably for the best. Patterson was on bye in Week 6, but now Erik gets the player who is currently RB3 in points per game, averaging 20.4 points. Only Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler have been better. If he can simply find a serviceable streamer at QB, then the upgrade at RB will no doubt be worth it, especially if Patterson can keep up this pace.
T9. Jess (▲2)
3-3, .364 TW%, 118.3 ppg
Big win for Jess this week who defeated Greco. Entering Week 6, both were 2-3. And despite spending most of the first six weeks in the bottom fourth of the Power Rankings, Jess is now back to .500. Not only that, but she had her second impressive game in a row, this time with a season-high 156.52 points. After a slow start, Jonathan Taylor had his third-straight game of 20+ points and is now RB5 on the season. Her first-round pick, Stefon Diggs, broke out with his first game of 20+ points (though he has been since traded to Brandon). And finally, Jess managed to start Courtland Sutton (23.4 points) at the right time.
With two wins in a row, Jess’ playoff prospects are much improved. This week alone, her chances of making the playoffs jumped from 1% last week to 17% this week. But now the real test begins. Starting this week, Jess has four tough games in a row with matchups against Beth Ann, Samantha, Whitney and Nick—all team owners ranked in the top half of the Power Rankings.
11. Greco (▼2)
2-4, .318 TW%, 113.7 ppg
After leading the league in scoring in Week 5, Greco fell back to Earth, scoring 110.8 points in a loss to Jess. Most surprising was the fact that she lost the battle at QB where Kirk Cousins outscored Justin Herbert 28.52-11.0. Swap those scores and Jess still wins, but it’s much closer. As a result, I continue to like the prospects of this team. Like the aforementioned Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson has turned it on after a slow start, averaging 21.7 ppg over this last four and is now RB8 on the season. She is the only team owner with three top-12 WRs in Davante Adams, DK Metcalf and Marquise Brown. And Mike Gesicki is TE8 but averaging 15.8 ppg over his last four.
But like Jess, she also faces an uphill climb. This week, she’ll be without Justin Herbert and James Robinson, two of her go-to performers. And soon the schedule gets harder. In fact, she has the second-toughest remaining schedule. After this week’s game against Alex, she faces five straight teams ranked in the top half of the Power Rankings. If she can bounce back to playoff relevancy, she’ll have earned it.
12. Brandon
2-4, .273 TW%, 107.6 ppg
It wasn’t a win, but Week 6 had to be encouraging if you’re Brandon. And I am. Brandon scored a season-high 130.9 points, the first time this season his team finished among the top half of the league in scoring. Yes, another player went down with an in-game injury (Kadarius Toney… sigh), but A.J. Brown looked improved with a season-high 16.1 points, mostly in the second half. Zach Ertz was just traded to the Cardinals’ high-scoring offense. And, though it happened on his bench, Jaylen Waddle scored a season-high 29.0 points. Waddle is now 14th in targets among all WRs this season. But most importantly, Derrick Henry continues to be awesome, averaging 28.4 ppg and leads all fantasy players (not just RBs) in scoring for the season. With Gray, we imagined how good his team would be with a healthy Christian McCaffrey. But imagine how much worse Brandon’s would be without Henry. I shudder to think.
This week, Brandon has a tough matchup against the reigning weekly prize winner, Gray. And he’ll have to do it without Dak Prescott and Stefon Diggs, who he recently acquired in a trade with Jess for Keenan Allen and Alex Collins. But if you squint, you can maybe see a path to the playoffs. Unlike Jess and Greco, Brandon has a much more favorable schedule ahead. This week’s game against Gray completes a five-week gauntlet against five of the league’s top-six teams. But starting in Week 8, Brandon only plays one team with a winning TW% until Week 14. He’s already behind the eight-ball in wins and points, but if he can somehow escape this week unscathed, then maybe, just maybe…
Looking Ahead to Week 7
This week’s premier matchup is Samantha vs. Geoff, two 4-2 teams who have each scored 130+ points in thee of the last four weeks. Both will be without key players, but the winner gets to 5-2, which puts them in a prime position for the playoffs.
I’m also interested in the game between Whitney and Josh, two team owners potentially headed in opposite directions. Whitney has lost two straight games and is beset by injuries. On a related note, Brandon Bolden may get his first Worst League start since 2013. Meanwhile, Josh, also on a two-game losing streak, will see if Kyler Murray can push him into the top half of the Power Rankings.
As for the other games, Nick, Gray and Beth Ann all face team owners in the bottom third of the Power Rankings in Erik, Brandon and Jess. Can they widen the gap? Or will the underdogs prevail? Of the three, I most like Jess’ chances as she’s now won three of her last four, including two games of 140+ points in a row.
Finally, Alex takes on Greco (yes, you read that right). Normally, I would favor Alex, especially since Greco will be without Justin Herbert and James Robinson. But Alex is devastated at RB with no Saquon Barkley or Nick Chubb, and now Damien Williams is healthy and may eat into Khalil Herbert’s production. The loser of this game drops to 2-5, not a place you want to be. (Trust me, I’m facing the same prospect this week.)
That’s it for Week 6. Good luck to all in Week 7 and may the bye weeks only make you stronger. Or at the very least, less worse.
