Week 4 Power Rankings
I thought I knew everything about this league.
Without looking, I can tell you the league’s best team (Gray, 2016), its worst (Nick, 2020), the luckiest (Terryn, 2013) and its highest-scoring (Alex, 2018), pre-PPR of course. I know the first player we drafted was Adrian Peterson and the last was Ryan Succop. That Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Julio Jones are the only players we’ve drafted all 11 years. And that the league’s champions, in order, are Brandon, Greco, Gray, Jess, Alex, Geoff, Brandon, Brandon, Gray and Brandon. (Those last three or four were particularly easy to remember.)
I have data on wins and losses, points scored, the number of times you’ve picked up a player and placed him into your lineup, your relative performance in bye weeks vs. non-bye weeks, and even how many TEs were drafted in the 11th round in 2013 (answer: two—Jordan Cameron and Zach Sudfeld).
And to do it, I’ve copied and pasted, then manually formatted every line of every box score for every game in league history. Literally, 14,462 individual scores as of this week. At this point, my spreadsheet with all the historical data is so massive I’ve turned off the auto-calculate feature just to keep it running smoothly.
But the one thing I never knew was why we called our league, “The Worst.”
Until now.
Luckily, Jess corrected that error this week when she found an old napkin in a box that she’d somehow saved from over a decade ago. Written on it in chicken-scratch handwriting was this inscrutable mathematical equation.
The Worst.
Written by Gray and translated by Geoff, it’s:
A Media major’s final gpa multiplied by the income of Eastin’s kid’s acting career combined with the personal safety level experienced at a Mad Men party that resulted in a 911 call (from the assaulter), all divided by the cost a pitcher at Shakespeare’s on a Thursday night.
For the visual leaners, there’s even a hand signal. According to Gray, it’s:
1) T your hands like a timeout
2) form a singular W with hands and clumped fingers
3) finish in semi circular motion like Lebron in 2010
Basically, an inside joke wrapped in a napkin inside a memory.
And whether you were there at its inception or not, it’s a beautiful representation of our league and the friendships and memories it holds together. I can think of no finer tribute than for this napkin to somehow become our league’s championship trophy. As the current holder of the napkin, it’s your move, Jess.
The Scoreboard
After finishing last in scoring in Week 3, Geoff won the weekly prize in Week 4.
What a difference a week makes. One week after finishing last in scoring, Geoff claimed the weekly prize in Week 4, totaling 156.24 points in a victory over Alex.
Speaking of Geoff, both he and Whitney picked up the most consequential wins of the week, defeating quality opponents in Alex and Nick to advance to 3-1 and 4-0, respectively. Notably, Whitney remains the only undefeated team in the league. (More about that in her recap below.) Joining them near the top of the standings is Josh who made quick work of Greco and is now 3-1, himself.
Also, props to both Beth Ann and Samantha who have successfully completed comebacks after rough starts. Both team owners started 0-2, and now both are back to .500 with wins over Erik and Brandon, respectively. Finally, Gray defeated Jess to advance to 2-2.
So yes, Whitney, Geoff and Josh lead the official standings. But who’s leading in the only rankings that truly matter? Let’s break it down as we always do from first to worst.
Power Rankings
Nick remains on top, but the gap has narrowed with eight teams separated by just six true wins.
1. Nick
2-2, .705 TW%, 135.4 ppg
Well, I guess we know who the better half is?
In a loss to Whitney (who is now 2-0 against her husband all time), Nick had his worst game of the season, finishing with fewer than 100 points for the first time this year. Chuba Hubbard (9.1 points) showed he may be Christian McCaffrey’s fill-in, but he’s no substitute for the real thing. Or even Mike Davis circa 2020.
But chalk this one up as a down game. D’Andre Swift (8.9 points), CeeDee Lamb (3.3) and even Cooper Kupp (11.4) all had their worst games of the season. Even still, Swift and Kupp still rank as top-10 options at their positions. And Lamb is not too far behind at WR28.
After a loss like this, the gap at the top has been narrowed significantly with three other team owners nipping at Nick’s heels, any of whom could easily overtake him in next week’s Power Rankings. So yes, Nick has been made mortal. And this team’s ceiling may have been capped without McCaffrey, but it’s still pretty darn good, leading the league in scoring by a good 4.7 ppg despite this clunker. As long as he continues playing at this level, I wouldn’t sweat the results or the 2-2 record.
In my mind, the most encouraging piece of data is Nick’s transaction total. In just four-and-a-half weeks, Nick has now totaled 14 moves (one trade + 13 acquisitions in free agency or on waivers). That ranks third in the league behind only Brandon and Josh (two noted tinkerers). It’s also already the most moves Nick has ever made in a season in 11 years. And we’re just four games in and the byes haven’t started yet! In other words, this is an entirely new Nick.
Looks like we may have awakened a sleeping giant. He may have lost his golden goose. But for at least one more week, he’s still on top of the beanstalk.
2. Beth Ann (▲3)
2-2, .682 TW%, 128.5 ppg
Well, look who it is?
After ranking as low as ninth just two weeks ago, Beth Ann has rocketed up the Power Rankings following two stellar weeks in which she finished as the runner-up for the weekly prize each time, bouncing back from an 0-2 start to get back to .500.
And you know what, I’m going to pat myself on the back for seeing this one coming. True, not much has gone right for me this season in the predictive department, especially as it relates to the players I drafted. But after her opening loss to Whitney, I was a believer. On the podcast after Week 1, Beth Ann was one of three team owners that I highlighted in our segment on “roster envy,” behind only Nick (my top pick who is still #1) and Geoff (this week’s weekly prize winner).
Key in her ascent has been the play of her WRs—Justin Jefferson (WR7) Diontae Johnson (WR8 in ppg) and Ja’Marr Chase (WR12). Chase in particular has been a nice find, considering he was taken in the seventh round of the draft after Will Fuller, Kenny Golladay and JuJu Smith-Schuster, none of which rank in the top-40 at their position. When all three starters are healthy (Johnson missed Week 3), that’s three top-12 WRs. Sheesh. It’s no surprise then that she leads the league in WR scoring with 56.4 ppg.
But she’ll need those pass-catchers, because David Montgomery went down with a knee injury on Sunday that figures to keep him out for 4-5 weeks according to reports. With the Bears’ bye week coming in Week 10, we may not see Montgomery back until Week 11, just four weeks before the end of the regular season. Considering Montgomery’s play (currently RB11 and coming off his best game of the season) and the expected games missed, that makes this one of the more devastating injuries this season.
With both out, she’ll need to lean on either Kenyan Drake or Jamaal Williams to carry the load until Montgomery returns. If they’re not able to pick up the slack, we may unfortunately see Beth Ann slide back down the rankings.
T3. Alex (▲1)
2-2, .659 TW%, 128.6 ppg
Call him, Mr. Consistent.
After Nick and Samantha’s subpar Week 4s, Alex is now the only team owner in the league to finish in the top half of the league in scoring in each of the first four weeks.
Week 1: 136.16
Week 2: 128.10
Week 3: 123.84
Week 4: 126.28
Not one dud in the bunch. And all above this season’s league average (120.9).
This is just a really solid team across the board. Looking at the starting lineup, there’s not one player that ranks outside of the top-20 at his position. And Jalen Hurts (QB3) continues to impress, trailing Patrick Mahomes by just 12.64 points on the season. That means that the QB whisperer has a real shot at nailing the QB1 for the fourth straight year, always in the sixth round or later.
Despite all that, Alex lost this week as a result of an unlucky matchup with this week’s top scorer, Geoff. Nevertheless, he moves up one spot in the rankings into a tie for third. And moving forward, I really like Alex’s chances this season. In the last couple games, Saquon Barkley looks like… Saquon Barkley. And Jerry Jeudy could be back in as soon as two weeks.
We already know the floor for this consistently good team is remarkably high. But where is the ceiling? As Michael Jordan would say, the ceiling is the roof.
T3. Whitney
4-0, .659 TW%, 124.7 ppg
You can have your true wins. Whitney’s got the ones that matter.
After defeating Nick in Week 4, Whitney remains the league’s only undefeated team at 4-0. You’ll recall last week we mentioned that 11 out of 12 teams that started 3-0 went on to make the playoffs. Well, the odds for 4-0 teams are even better—100%.
That’s right. In league history, there have only been five 4-0 teams. And all five made the playoffs. That includes two champions (Brandon in 2011, Greco in 2012) and two runners-up (Gray in 2011, Josh in 2019). The least successful among them was Terryn in 2013 who finished 8-5 despite having a team that still ranks as one of the 10 worst all time. But that just goes to show that even if you have a really bad team, it’s hard to miss the playoffs with a start this good.
And speaking of the playoffs, this is the perfect opportunity to reintroduce our Playoff Picture for the first time this season. Now that we’ve got four weeks of data, let’s simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times and see who comes out on top.
Numbers in superscript indicate playoff seeding if the playoffs were to start today.
No surprise, it’s Whitney with the best odds to make the playoffs with the computer giving her a 97% chance. Specifically, in 10,000 simulations, Whitney made the playoffs 9,731 times. That includes 68% of the time where she finished as a top-two seed, which guarantees a first-round bye.
As for the rest of the league, Nick, Geoff, Beth Ann, Alex and Josh are the remaining projected playoff teams. But Samantha and Gray are not far behind. And Samantha actually has a better-than-50% chance to make the playoffs. Next, there’s a drop off to Erik (8%), who is a bit of a dark horse at the moment.
And then there’s Brandon, Jess and Greco… who made the playoffs a combined 11 times in 10,000 simulations. Yikes. Obviously, it’s early. And their fortunes could change. (Remember, these projections assume your team continues to play at its current level based on its TW%.) But if they don’t pick up their play, these 1-3 teams could quickly be left in the dust.
How accurate are these picks? After nailing five out of six playoff teams two years in a row, the Week 4 Playoff Picture went just three-for-six last year. Not great. Go back and take a look at it yourself. You’ll see that in Week 4, Beth Ann, Greco and Gray were all correctly predicted. But the computer missed out on Erik, Jess and eventual champion, Brandon. And that’s because those teams improved. After a little bit of a lucky start, the computer was dubious of Jess. But she picked up her play and eventually stole the bye from Gray. And Brandon rebounded from a 1-3 start to win seven of his next eight.
So don’t despair, but let it motivate you. If you’re projected to make the playoffs, keep doing what you’re doing. If you’re not, it might be time to make some changes. Or at least hope that your players do.
And if you’re Whitney, start making plans for December. At least in pencil.
T5. Samantha (▼3)
2-2, .591 TW%, 130.7 ppg
The bad news? One week after claiming the weekly prize and rising to her highest-ever spot in the Power Rankings, Samantha’s team disappointed in Week 4, scoring the second-fewest points of the week.
The good news? She won anyway.
Sometimes, it’s not about how you play. It’s about who you play. And facing Brandon, Samantha came out on top, improving her career record against him to 3-6.
Like with Nick, I wouldn’t read too much into this performance. It was a down week for Mike Williams and Brandin Cooks, who both still rank in the top-10 at WR. And ditto for T.J. Hockenson (still a top-5 TE) who looked improved from Week 3, but not at the same standard he displayed in Weeks 1 and 2.
If there is cause for concern, it’s at RB2. With Dalvin Cook back to full health, Myles Gaskin displaced Alexander Mattison and returned to his usual spot in Samantha’s starting lineup. And yet, somehow, Mattison (2.0 points) actually outscored Gaskin (0.3). A team owner flush with WRs (currently five starting-caliber, top-30 WRs on her roster), Samantha needs to find an alternative to Gaskin (RB39). Luckily, the answer may be on her bench where James Conner just had his second-straight 20-point game, scoring multiple touchdowns for the second week in a row in the high-powered Cardinals offense. He’s now RB25 on the season.
Despite the flukey win, she’s probably right where she should be at 2-2, considering she lost a game by just 1.48 points two weeks ago to Whitney while scoring over 130 points. Like Beth Ann, she’s bounced back quickly from an 0-2 start and is right back in the thick of the playoff hunt at 2-2.
And no, I’m not bitter at all about that missed Daniel Carlson field goal. Why do you ask?
T5. Josh (▲1)
3-1, .591 TW%, 120.9 ppg
What if Josh never loses again?
Ever since his season-opening loss to Geoff, Josh keeps stringing together wins and now has the longest winning streak of anyone not named Whitney. At 3-1, but ninth in points, Josh would be third if the playoffs started today. But he’s a little further down the Power Rankings due to solid, not spectacular, play after a bad Week 1.
Still, he’s reeled off three-straight games of 125+ points, and each week brings new reasons for optimism. This week, it was waiver wire acquisition Dawson Knox who stepped right in for injured Rob Gronkowski and promptly scored 20.7 points, fifth-most by a TE started in the Worst League this season.
But most exciting and unexpected has to be the production of Cordarrelle Patterson. Scooped up in free agency after Week 1, Patterson has now scored double-figures on Josh’s bench for three weeks in a row, culminating in a 34.6-point, three-touchdown performance in Week 4. Despite only playing a third of the snaps in the Falcons offense, Patterson is somehow RB3 on the season, trailing only Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler. It’s absurd and, if it continues, would clearly make Patterson the free agent pickup of the season. At the very least, he’s got to find his way into Josh’s starting lineup soon. I mean, how can you not start him at this point?
When Tee Higgins and Rob Gronkowski return, watch out. This team could get even better. Again, the only thing limiting his upside right now is QB play. Josh ranks last in the league with 14.7 ppg from QBs, and Derek Carr’s subpar performance in Week 4 makes it four QBs in four weeks that have failed to break out of the teens.
Will it be five-for-five? Daniel Jones has entered the chat.
T7. Geoff (▲1)
3-1, .568 TW%, 129.7 ppg
See, I told you not to sweat last week’s underwhelming performance.
After scoring the fewest points in Week 3, Geoff exploded in Week 4. Sorry, let me rephrase that. Tyreek Hill exploded in Week 4.
Geoff’s first-round pick scored 47.6 points on Sunday, second-most by a player this season. After two quiet weeks of single-digit production, Hill reminded everyone why he was one of only three WRs taken in the first round of this year’s draft because of his ability to win you a week all by himself. Facing Alex this week, Hill accounted for more than 30% of Geoff’s total points and more than 37% of Alex’s.
Also, with a league-leading 36 receptions in Week 4, Geoff now pushes narrowly ahead of Nick and into the lead for most receptions on the season with an average of 30.3 per week. Key to that ranking has been the play of Najee Harris who now leads all RBs with 26 receptions on the season.
Like Josh, Geoff is 3-1, but slightly further down the rankings. And yet, his odds of making the playoffs in our first Playoff Picture are much higher—84% for Geoff vs. 65% for Josh. What gives? Two things: (1) Josh technically has the toughest remaining schedule having just played Greco in Week 4 while Geoff got Alex out of the way, and (2) Geoff has more points. In the event of a tie, Geoff gets the nod over Josh, and many other team owners in the league considering he currently ranks third in total points. But with 10 games left to be played, things could easily change.
T7. Gray
2-2, .568 TW%, 122.7 ppg
Who needs pass-catchers?
With the Cardinals spreading the love around to DeAndre Hopkin’s teammates and Odell Beckham scoring just 5.1 points on two catches in his second game back, Gray managed just 15.8 points combined from WRs in Week 4. Through four weeks, he ranks last in WR scoring by a mile. League average is 42.3 ppg, and outside of Brandon, no one else is getting less than 38.3. Gray is averaging 20.4. Reminder: Tyreek Hill scored 47.6 by himself this week.
But a big part of that is by design as he’s one of the few teams starting three RBs right now. And when you’re getting the kind of scoring he is from RBs, you may not need good pass-catchers. As of this week, Gray now leads all team owners in RB scoring with 47.9 ppg. No one else is even in the 40s, though Cordarrelle Patterson may soon have something to say about that for Josh.
A big reason why is the play of Austin Ekeler who just keeps getting better every week. His season-high 29.5 points in Week 4 now places him second among all RBs, trailing only Derrick Henry. Darrell Henderson, now healthy, ranks in the top-10 in points per game among RBs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has looked strong, rushing for over 100 yards in each of the past two games and is now ninth in carries and seventh in rushing yards on the season. And now enter Damien Williams who may suddenly be an option with the injury to David Montgomery. If Gray could start four RBs, I think he would.
Last thing I’ll say about Gray, it may seem like he’s way back in the pack, considering he’s the eighth team on this list and has “just” a 37% chance of making the playoffs. But now that Nick is no longer separated from the pack, it’s a tightly bunched group at the top. Case in point, just six true wins separate the top eight teams in the Power Rankings. Considering the weekly prize winner gets 11 true wins, it’s possible that any one of these eight could jump up to the top with just one good week.
So I expect plenty of movement in the coming weeks and would not be surprised at all to see Gray move up the rankings.
As for the rest of the teams on this list…
9. Erik (▼1)
1-3, .432 TW%, 126.7 ppg
That’s three bad weeks in a row for Erik who has fallen into a bit of limbo. He’s not quite as good as the teams above him in the rankings, but also not nearly as bad as the three teams below him.
This week, he improved upon his performance from the last two weeks, but still ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring with just 117.72 points in a loss to Beth Ann. That makes it three losses in a row, the longest active streak in the league.
So what’s different? The RB scoring has dropped off a cliff. He went from 45.8 points in Week 1 from Joe Mixon and Melvin Gordon to just 21.6 ppg from that duo in the weeks since. Turns out that Week 1 performance might have been a bit of fool’s gold as they have just one game of more than 14 points between the two of them since. And now, it appears, Joe Mixon is hurt. Considering he missed most of last year with a lingering foot injury, that’s troubling.
Remember, we were worried about the run game after the draft when we noted that he was the last team owner to draft a second RB, waiting until the eighth round. With Mixon out, that pushes Devin Singletary or Ronald Jones into the lineup, both the lesser-preferred options in committees in pass-first offenses.
What’s keeping this team afloat, however, is the stellar play at QB and TE. Currently Kyler Murray and Travis Kelce rank second and first at their positions, respectively. Those guys are so consistently good that they can carry Erik to a win all by themselves or push his team to the next level in boom weeks for his RBs and WRs.
Here’s hoping Mixon (and Julio Jones) return to full health and bring more boom times for Erik in the near future.
10. Brandon
1-3, .205 TW%, 103.1 ppg
Where to start?
Is it the Daniel Carlson missed FG that would have resulted in a win on Monday night? Or is it the boneheaded decision to place ANY FAITH WHATSOEVER in Brandon Aiyuk? Or maybe the Logan Thomas injury on the first play of the game, the fourth such injury to one of my starters in as many weeks?
No, you know what? No excuses. I’ve had it with this team and excuses. I’m looking for solutions. Determined to get to the bottom of it, I stayed up all night and crunched the numbers, and I finally figured out why this team has struggled so much.
Here’s the secret: I picked the wrong guys.
Stunning, but it’s true. With four weeks of games in the books, I went back and looked at the draft to determine the biggest busts in each round. Here they are, the worst picks based on total points scored so far this season by round.
1. Dalvin Cook (Pick: 2, Whitney)
2. A.J. Brown (Pick: 21, Brandon)
3. Allen Robinson (Pick: 30, Samantha)
4. Brandon Aiyuk (Pick: 45, Brandon)
5. Gus Edwards (Pick: 60, Alex)
6. Raheem Mostert (Pick: 69, Brandon)
7. Odell Beckham Jr. (Pick: 80, Gray)
8. Michael Thomas (Pick: 89, Gray)
9. Curtis Samuel (Pick: 105, Geoff)
10. Elijah Moore (Pick: 120, Nick)
11. Phillip Lindsay (Pick: 126, Samantha)
12. Parris Campbell (Pick: 133, Alex)
13. Rhamondre Stevenson (Pick: 148, Brandon)
14. Washington D/ST (Pick: 162, Erik)
15. Wayne Gallman (Pick: 178, Josh)
16. Josh Lambo (Pick: 188, Greco)
Whose name do you see up there the most? Brandon. In four out of 16 rounds (or literally one quarter of the total draft), I somehow managed to find the worst guy you could pick in that round, and I drafted him. Nice! (Side note: I don’t think I could do that again if I tried.)
Worse still, three of those busts took place in the crucial early rounds. In Rounds 2, 4 and 6, I drafted A.J. Brown (WR78), Brandon Aiyuk (WR91) and Raheem Mostert (RB96). Yes, two of them are busts because of injury. But the Aiyuk disappearing act given his strong play last season is completely inexplicable to me. (Side note: every time Deebo Samuel—currently WR3—makes another big catch, I think about what could have been and wonder why I reached nearly two rounds early for Aiyuk when I could have drafted Cooper Kupp or DJ Moore instead. Doh!)
So how do you recover from that many busts? Well, it helps if you nail some picks elsewhere in the draft. With that in mind, I then did the opposite analysis and looked at the best picks based on total points scored, limiting myself to just one QB, TE, D/ST and K but selecting them in the round where it provided the most bang for my buck relative to other players going in that round.
The result is the hypothetical “perfect draft,” at least through four weeks:
1. Derrick Henry (Pick: 4, Brandon)
2. Terry McLaurin (Pick: 23, Whitney)
3. D’Andre Swift (Pick: 34, Josh)
4. Cooper Kupp (Pick: 48, Nick)
5. Kareem Hunt (Pick: 50, Whitney)
6. Chase Edmonds (Pick: 68, Greco)
7. Brandin Cooks (Pick: 78, Samantha)
8. Deebo Samuel (Pick: 86, Jess)
9. Marvin Jones Jr. (Pick: 102, Samantha)
10. Mike Williams (Pick: 115, Samantha)
11. Jalen Hurts (Pick: 132, Alex)
12. Emmanuel Sanders (Pick: 144, Nick)
13. Rob Gronkowski (Pick: 145, Nick)
14. Justin Tucker (Pick: 161, Gray)
15. Colts D/ST (Pick: 179, Jess)
16. Kenneth Gainwell (Pick: 184, Geoff)
Yes, I got one right! Derrick Henry has been the best player in fantasy, leading all players except Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray in scoring. But after that, you don’t see my name again.
Instead, you’ll notice Nick (Cooper Kupp, Emmanuel Sanders, Rob Gronkowski) and Samantha (Brandin Cooks, Marvin Jones, Mike Williams) led the way with three perfect picks apiece. That explains, in part, why they were both at the top of the Power Rankings as recently as last week and have combined for three of the four weekly prizes.
Cool fact: if you had drafted this way, you’d have four top-12 RBs and five top-10 WRs to go along with the surprise QB3 (Jalen Hurts) and a rejuvenated TE3 (Rob Gronkowski), the latter of whom is actually TE1 in points per game. (Yes, he’s injured now, but still.) And oh yeah, you’d also have the best kicker and a top-10 defense. It seems so obvious in retrospect.
Unfortunately, this fantasy roster is pure fantasy. And the reality is my team stinks right now. We’re talking “worst team I’ve ever had” bad. We’re not there yet, but it’s looming.
Still, there’s a loooooooong way to go. And if I could just have one week where a player doesn’t go down to injury, leaving a hole in my lineup, that’d be great. But I’m not complaining. Because to have a complaint, you have to have something to blame.
And there’s no one to blame here but myself.
11. Jess
1-3, .182 TW%, 102.5 ppg
It wasn’t a win, but Jess had her best game of the season in Week 4, scoring 111.02 points in a loss to Gray. On the bright side, Jonathan Taylor (20.4 points) and Stefon Diggs (18.4) had their best games of the season. And the aforementioned Deebo Samuel (35.7) continued to prove that he’s a stud.
But the rest of the roster really struggled. Kirk Cousins had his first down game, netting only 10.12 points in matchup with the Browns. Tyler Higbee was better this week than he or Robert Tonyan have been in the past but still only managed 7.6 points. And Courtland Sutton has not looked great since his 24.9-point game in Week 2.
The worst news of all, however, was the neck injury to Chris Carson, which saw him ceding carries to Alex Collins. With a game later tonight, it appears the Seahawks’ starting RB may or may not play. Luckily, Jess has plenty of backup options (e.g. Josh Jacobs, Mike Davis). Though all have played relatively uninspiring football as of late.
With DJ Chark suffering a fractured ankle this week, joining Tua Tagovailoa on IR, not to mention Carson and Jacobs who are also hobbled, it’s a bit of a MASH unit for Jess. But I still have faith she can put it together and make a comeback. The biggest hurdles may be at QB and TE.
But Jess has come back before. Just last year, she was 10th in the Power Rankings at this time, but turned it around to finish third. And from Weeks 5-13, she was actually the best team in the league with a TW% of .687.
If she did it once, maybe she can do it again.
12. Greco
1-3, .159 TW%, 97.8 ppg
Greco should have won this game.
Totally speculating here, but I think what happened was a case of a Thursday night game sneaking up on a team owner. After two bad games, Greco understandably benched James Robinson. But after he redeemed himself with 25.4 points in Week 3, I’m betting she was planning on giving her highest-drafted RB his starting job back. The only problem? The Jaguars played Thursday night. By the time she realized what had happened, it was too late and Robinson was locked onto her bench where his 20.6 points went to waste.
Not only that, but kicker Josh Lambo also played Thursday and was declared inactive for personal reasons. Had she subbed in any other kicker (including his replacement Matthew Wright), his points plus the difference between Robinson and Javonte Williams would have been the difference. Hypothetically, Greco would have beaten Josh 127.98-125.34.
But alas, to the attentive team owner go the spoils.
Still, I suddenly really like Greco’s chances. Like really, really like them. In fact, of the three teams in the bottom of the Power Rankings, I think Greco has the best chance, ahead of either Jess or myself, to stage a comeback.
Why? Look at that talent. With James Robinson suddenly coming on strong, she has two top-12 RBs (James Robinson and Chase Edmonds) and three top-15 WRs (Davante Adams, DK Metcalf and Marquise Brown). Justin Herbert started slow, but anyone that watched him these last couple of weeks knows that he’s a stud. And I don’t know if he can keep it up, but Mike Gesicki is suddenly averaging 17.7 ppg over the last two weeks.
That’s all the pieces right there. She doesn’t need to hope that her players start living up to draft-day expectations or pray for better health (though she is without James White and Jarvis Landry). This team is good to go as-is.
There’s just one tiny, insignificant, eensy-weensy, little caveat:
It’s Greco! And—no judgement—but she has a history of starting an inactive player here or there. Josh Lambo was the first this season, but will he be the last? And is it a certainty that James Robinson will return to her lineup? Who knows?
This ship could ride straight into the playoffs. Or right into an iceberg if no one’s behind the wheel. Either way, it’ll be spectacular.
Looking Ahead to Week 5
Next week, the two matchups I’m most excited to see are Gray vs. Nick and Beth Ann vs. Josh. The former pits two team owners who are historically at opposite ends of the spectrum in the career Power Rankings. But does Nick have the upper hand this season? And for the latter, it’s a matchup of our two West Coasters who have looked strong after rough starts. In fact, these two now lead the league in TW% over the last three weeks.
As for the rest of the league, I wonder if any of the bottom four teams (who are all 1-3) can climb back into the race with a win. Greco takes on Geoff, Jess faces Alex, Brandon battles Whitney and Erik duels with Samantha. If I had to guess which underdog is most likely to come out on top, I’m sticking with what I said in the Power Rankings and picking Greco.
That’s it for this week. See you all in Week 5!
