Week 2 Power Rankings
We expected players to miss time this season. What we didn’t expect was this.
Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, Raheem Mostert, Sterling Shepard, Parris Campbell, Breshad Perriman, Cam Akers, Malcolm Brown, Jerry Jeudy, Sammy Watkins and many more. If that were a fantasy football team, it’d be a damn good one if not for the fact that your lineup would have been entirely decimated.
The list of injured players in Week 2 goes on and on. Someone made a megathread on the NFL subreddit that included all 56 injuries from Sunday. And that doesn’t even take into account high-profile names like Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, A.J. Brown, George Kittle and Le’Veon Bell who missed the week due to injuries they suffered in Week 1. In all, at least six ACLs were torn on Sunday. Six?!
For a historical context, injuries are not the sort of thing I keep track of in my spreadsheet, but there were countless stories written this week in sports media about how unprecedented this week was. No stat was perhaps more revealing of the impact on fantasy football specifically than the one Field Yates shared on the Fantasy Focus podcast earlier this week:
“I don’t know that I’ll ever recall a Sunday like the one that we saw yesterday in terms of injuries. Just brutal. Our producer, Matt Harrington, sent us a note that 12 of the top 46 players in terms of ADP going into this season have either already missed a game or got hurt and left a game as a result of injury.”
12 of the top 46?! That’s over 25% in just two weeks. Luckily, no fantasy-relevant player has been sidelined due to COVID-19, but those IR spots we voted on during the preseason sure are coming in handy now.
The truth is injuries are a big part of fantasy football. Hardly anybody ever escapes the season completely unscathed. And if you do, your team is the exception rather than the rule. That being said, it’s one thing to lose a sleeper you picked in the 12th round to a season-ending injury and another to lose the second overall pick.
Unfortunately, that’s the situation league newcomer Whitney faces having lost Saquon Barkley for the season. (Bet the rest of you are glad you didn’t get a high pick in the draft now.) Or Nick who will be without first overall pick Christian McCaffrey for at least the next three weeks if not longer. Or Greco who’s lost fourth-round pick Courtland Sutton (taken two spots ahead of Calvin Ridley) for the year. Those are not easy losses.
But that doesn’t mean those obstacles are insurmountable. Whatever you do, don’t give up! Luckily, Whitney and Greco are both 2-0 and off to great starts. And Nick, though he is 0-2, still has plenty of time to bounce back. Don’t believe me? There’s plenty of evidence from years past of team owners who suffered injuries to key players yet went on to make the playoffs or even win the whole thing.
So without further ado, here’s my somewhat comprehensive but mostly anecdotal list of the Top 10 Worst Injuries in Worst League History and how those teams fared. If there’s an obvious one I missed, feel free to let me know. Unfortunately there’s no easy way to research this other than to manually cross-reference the names of players taken in the first round of past drafts with their games played stats from Pro Football Reference. And that takes…awhile.
Alright, let’s count it down…
10. Aaron Rodgers, 2013 (Nick, 5-8)
Back when we used to take QBs in the first round, Nick drafted Aaron Rodgers with the third overall pick in 2013. Unfortunately, Rodgers was lost for the season after suffering a broken collarbone in a Week 9 matchup with the Bears on Monday Night Football. As a result, his QB scoring took a nosedive, dropping from 19.3 ppg to 13.6, and yet his team actually improved with a TW% above .500 from that moment on. Perhaps credit goes ironically to a trade of his backup QB weeks earlier for Larry Fitzgerald, which helped boost his scoring down the stretch.
9. A.J. Green, 2016 (Geoff, 8-5)
It sucks to lose your top pick early in the season. But no less devastating is to lose a key piece of your team just before the playoffs. Entering the home stretch of the regular season, Geoff was sitting pretty at 7-3 and second in the Power Rankings. But after his first-round pick, A.J. Green, tore his hamstring in Week 11, Geoff hobbled across the finish line, losing his last two games. Undeterred, he upset second-seeded Greco before advancing to face fellow underdog Brandon in the finals. No A.J. Green? No problem. Geoff got just enough from fantasy fill-in Ty Montgomery to claim his first title.
8. Odell Beckham Jr., 2017 (Trevor, 2-11)
It may be hard to remember now, but there was a time when Odell Beckham Jr. was really good at football. Or at least had a quarterback capable of exploiting his talents. (Who would have thought we’d ever say that about Eli Manning?) In 2017, Trevor drafted Beckham fourth overall but only got four games from the three-time Pro Bowler. After spraining his ankle in the preseason, OBJ missed Week 1 before ultimately fracturing the ankle later in Week 5, which ended his season. Unfortunately, Trevor’s season never really got off the ground as he became the first team owner to lose 11 games in league history.
7. Leonard Fournette, 2018 (Gray, 6-6-1)
You’ll probably recall how Leonard Fournette helped lead Gray back to the promised land last season for his aptly named fantasy team, Where’d You Go Fournette. But that team got its name for Fournette’s performance the season before in which Gray traded back from the sixth pick to the eighth in order to take Fournette and in so doing passed on Saquon Barkley in his Pro Bowl rookie season. Meanwhile, Fournette injured his hamstring in Week 1, which lingered until his return in Week 10. Once finally healthy, he got himself suspended for a fistfight and missed a pivotal Week 13 contest that could have sent Gray to the playoffs. Gray did just barely miss the playoffs that year, but it was his worst season ever and the only in which he finished with a TW% below .500.
6. Jamaal Charles, 2011 and 2015 (Erik, 3-9-1 and 7-6)
Two different years, same team owner, same player. In both 2011 and 2015, Erik drafted fellow Longhorn Jamaal Charles in the first round only to have it end in disaster. He lost second overall pick Jamaal Charles in Week 2 of 2011 to a torn ACL. Then drafted his beloved Longhorn again in 2015 (fourth overall) only to lose him in Week 5 after he tore his other ACL. Brutal. The first time around, Erik suffered through one of the lowest-scoring seasons in league history (62.5 ppg) due mostly to his own inactivity. (He still holds the record for fewest points in a single game with an inconceivable 21 total points in Week 11.) But the second time, he fared much better, finishing 7-6. With modern playoff settings, he would have missed a six-team playoff that year by just 30 points.
5. Maurice Jones-Drew, 2012 (Greco, 8-5)
In 2012, Greco was off to a hot start, running her record to 5-0 right out of the gate. Unfortunately, that luck ended in Week 6 when third overall pick Maurice Jones-Drew went down with a season-ending Lisfranc injury. Obviously, it was devastating. But Greco hung in there. Thanks largely to drafting Adrian Peterson in the third round in his comeback MVP season, Greco tread water, going 3-4 down the stretch and finishing fourth in the Final Power Rankings. Then as the 3-seed in the playoffs, she upset Alex in the championship round, claiming her first and only title. Let that be a lesson to anyone suffering through injuries. You can still win the whole thing.
4. Adrian Peterson, 2014 (Terryn, 5-8)
After selecting Adrian Peterson second overall in 2014, Terryn got just one game from him before he was suspended for the rest of the year following his indictment on charges of recklessly assaulting his four-year-old son with a “switch.” Yikes. The effect on Terryn’s team was similarly punishing as she finished last in the 2014 Power Rankings. The problem was she didn’t do anything about it. In one of the worst cases of league inactivity that I can recall, she continued to not only roster but start Peterson in her lineup throughout the rest of the regular season. As a result, she averaged just 7.7 ppg from RBs for the season—easily the lowest total in league history. Don’t be like Terryn. Or Adrian Peterson for that matter.
3. Adrian Peterson, 2016 (Brandon, 8-5)
Same guy. Two years later. In what would be his last year with the Vikings, fifth overall pick Adrian Peterson tore his meniscus in Week 2 and would essentially miss the rest of the season. (He did return briefly in Week 15 but scored zero fantasy points.) Nevertheless, Brandon held his team together with bubble gum, popsicle sticks and whatever he could find on the waiver wire or through trade, which accounted for 45% of his total scoring—the third-highest percentage among all playoff teams. A lucky 8-5, Brandon snuck into the playoffs as the 4-seed before staging the biggest upset in league history, defeating Gray’s best team ever (11-2, .808 TW%) in the first round behind a breakout rookie performance from Tyreek Hill, who was plucked off of waivers. Despite losing his first round pick, Brandon came within two points of a championship.
2. Le’Veon Bell, 2018 (Geoff, 3-10)
This injury was self-inflicted. Despite tweeting during the preseason that it would be his “best season to date,” Le’Veon Bell never actually showed up for the Steelers in 2018. His season-long holdout ultimately doomed Geoff who selected him with the third overall pick yet got exactly zero points to show for it. I wrote a whole thing about it (including some Freaky Friday fan fiction that is absolutely worth a re-read) where we determined the loss of Le’Veon Bell probably cost Geoff at least three wins and a chance at the playoffs. To his credit, Geoff never gave up, making multiple trades and fighting to the bitter end. But he never recovered, becoming the Worst Worst Team of All-Time with a TW% of .220.
1. David Johnson, 2017 (Alex, 6-7)
This one is probably the most similar to what Whitney is facing this year in terms of how highly the player was drafted, the severity of the injury and when it occurred. After two straight double-digit picks, Alex was finally rewarded in 2017 with the top overall pick in the draft and selected David Johnson. Unfortunately, Johnson scored just 6 points in his Week 1 debut before a wrist injury ended his season. Despite that fact, Alex finished with a TW% above .500 and just missed the then four-team playoffs by one win and 72 points. Even without Johnson, he scored the third-most points from RB of any team in the league.
So there you have it—a list of 10 (or technically 11) major injuries, all to first-round picks but with varying results. Some team owners were undone by it, posting some of the worst seasons we’ve ever seen. Others were able to overcome it, rising to the playoffs and in a couple of cases even won the championship.
Given how highly he was drafted, how early in the season he tore his ACL and the fact that it’s season-ending, Saquon Barkley’s injury this year will surely rank among the Worst’s worst. But I wouldn’t write Whitney off yet. There’s still a lot of season left and anything can happen. Look no further than the stat Matthew Berry shared in his latest Love/Hate column.
Of all the people who drafted David Johnson with the No. 1 pick in 2017, 6.78% went on to win their leagues. When you consider that only 1 in 12 of us (8.33%) can win the title anyway, that ain’t half bad.
In fantasy football, there are worse odds.
The Scoreboard
The single-game scoring record was broken once again thanks to 180.58 points from Josh.
Some weeks you’re the hammer. Other weeks you’re the nail. One week after demolishing Geoff’s team en route to a league record 179.08 points, Beth Ann saw that record broken against her own team. This week, it was Josh who set the new bar with 180.58 points. I’m not going to keep harkening back to last year’s scoring settings, but it’s worth mentioning that it would have been 139 points last year, which is actually less than Beth Ann’s adjusted Week 1 total of 149. The reason for that? Receptions. Josh had a whopping 36 of them in Week 2.
With a 180.58-137.92 victory, Josh’s team was led by the play of Alvin Kamara, Cam Newton and Darren Waller, all of whom topped 28 points. It’s especially impressive to be getting that type of scoring from QB and TE, both of which appear to be having a bit of a renaissance this season. It’s super early, but QB scoring is up by over 7 ppg while TE scoring is up by over 5 ppg. For Beth Ann, it was still an impressive outing in defeat. Her 137.92 points were the most ever in a loss and Calvin Ridley (29.9 points) looks like a league winner as the fourth-round pick is currently leading all RBs and WRs in points through two weeks.
No Michael Thomas? No problem. Alex defeated Nick 154.5-130.12 thanks in part to the stellar play of his RB trio—Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor and undrafted (both in our league and the NFL) rookie sensation James Robinson. Will Fuller posted a bagel. But once again a QB/TE tandem (Josh Allen and Jonnu Smith) more than made up the difference. For Nick, let me say—🔔 SHAME 🔔 SHAME 🔔 SHAME! Nick started not one, but two inactive players (Le’Veon Bell, George Kittle), one of which who had already been placed on IR. For what it’s worth, the bench wouldn’t have made up the difference, but it might have with a TE plucked from free agency. (Either Jordan Reed or Mo Alie-Cox combined with Randall Cobb would have done it.) I’m not saying it’s likely Nick would have picked that combo. But come on, people. It’s Week 2. We’re better than this.
In another matchup of team owners looking to get their first win, Brandon defeated Geoff 142.06-133.48. Brandon got a season-high 45.6 points from Aaron Jones (now the No. 1 RB in fantasy) and needed almost every one of them as Patrick Mahomes staged a late comeback for Geoff. In a fantasy matchup of the first two QBs selected in this year’s draft, both initially disappointed. But it was Mahomes who led a comeback against Justin Herbert and the Chargers, nearly lifting Geoff to a victory as the game extended into overtime. Ultimately, Brandon held on for the win thanks to a few more receptions for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. But Geoff looked much better in Week 2 after struggling with only 92.24 points in Week 1.
In this week’s closest matchup, Gray defeated Samantha 138.28-134.94. After Harrison Butker drilled a couple of late field goals for the Chiefs, Gray needed just 11.14 points from Drew Brees on Monday night to get the win. Simple, right? Not so fast. With six minutes left to go in the fourth quarter, Samantha still clung to a narrow lead before Brees finally pushed Gray over the top. Even still, the outcome remained in doubt until the final minutes when Brees was finally able to push the margin out of reach of a possible turnover. Interestingly, had this game been scored with last year’s non-PPR, non-decimal settings, Samantha would have won 105-104, which is the first time this season we’ve seen a different outcome as a result of those rule changes.
Playing for the second straight week without third-round pick Kenny Golladay, not to mention Courtland Sutton, Greco scored more than enough points to defeat Erik 129.5-102.3. By Monday night, she had already secured the win, even without Josh Jacobs’ contribution. Partially to blame was the fact that Erik was missing a key piece in second-round pick Chris Godwin. Obviously, it would have helped to have had Leonard Fournette (27.6 points) in his starting lineup as well. But the real difference in the game? The defenses and kickers. Rostering both the Colts D/ST and kicker (Rodrigo Blankenship), Greco got a whopping 32 points from those two positions while Erik scored just 1 combined point from the Chiefs D/ST and Matt Prater. The difference? 31 points. The final margin? 27.2.
Finally, the two team owners with the lowest scores in Week 2 faced off with Whitney getting the 98.78-78.2 win as Jess’ losing ways in Week 2 continued (now 2-8 for her career). So far, the Buccaneers QB/TE stack of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski have not done Whitney many favors (just 8.68 combined points in Week 2). Plus, the loss of Saquon Barkley goes without saying. But big games from Chris Carson (19.8 points), D.J. Moore (20) and Julian Edelman (25.9) helped carry the day. Meanwhile, one week after leading the league with 37 receptions, Jess got just 13 in Week 2. Her 78.2 points are the lowest of the PPR era and would have been just 59 points last season.
Power Rankings
Beth Ann maintains her hold on first place in the Power Rankings while Alex rises five spots into fifth.
Two weeks into the season and only three undefeated teams remain—Greco, Gray and Whitney. All are 2-0, but not all records should be treated equal. TW% reveals that Greco is so far the best of the group in fourth place, having gone 13-9 in true games while Gray, tied for sixth, has gone 11-11. But ironically, despite her perfect record, Whitney ranks tied for last in the Power Rankings along with two currently winless team owners—Nick and Geoff. All are 5-17 in true games. In other words, Whitney has won just five of 22 possible matchups this season. It’s just dumb luck that two of those wins happen to be the ones she was officially scheduled to play.
Instead, the top of the Power Rankings belongs to a trio of 1-1 team owners—Beth Ann, Josh and Brandon. All three have put together an above-average first couple of weeks with Beth Ann and Josh currently leading the league in scoring by at least 30 points. Not far behind is Alex in fifth place with Erik and Jess, also at 1-1, tied for eighth.
Meanwhile, your best 0-2 team so far? That’d be Samantha who is tied for sixth in the Power Rankings despite failing to win a game. Speaking of Samantha, this is now her third 0-2 start in three seasons. Maybe it’s the fact that she has a tough early schedule with her first two games against former champions Jess and Gray, but Samantha always starts out of the gate slow. But don’t let that fool you. She’s also known for rebounding to make the playoffs having finished the year going 7-4 and 8-3 down the stretch in each of the last two seasons.
Looking Ahead to Week 3
This week’s top matchup will feature the two hottest teams from Week 1 and two of the top-4 teams in the Power Rankings going head to head—Beth Ann (1-1) and Greco (2-0). Greco will be looking to run her record to 3-0 for the first time since 2017, which also happens to be the last time she made the playoffs. Might this be the first time we see Kenny Golladay play this season? Plus, this game will also feature a matchup of Atlanta’s two stud WRs as they battle for alpha dog status—Julio Jones (assuming he’s healthy) and Calvin Ridley. Beth Ann won their only meeting last year.
The other game featuring two teams in the top half of the Power Rankings will be Gray (2-0) taking on Alex (1-1). With recent free agent pickup Gardner Minshew scoring just 9.2 points on Thursday night for Gray, the odds have swung heavily in Alex’s favor, especially considering that Alex got 30.9 points from James Robinson in the same game. Look for Gray to need a whole bunch of points from Mark Ingram, Travis Kelce and Harrison Butker on Monday night to have a chance. This will be a good chance for Alex to get a rare win over Gray as he is just 2-7 against Gray all-time, easily his worst record against any opponent not named Samantha.
Brandon (1-1) will face Erik (1-1), the latter of whom should have Chris Godwin back at full strength. With so many fantasy-relevant players on the Ravens and Chiefs, this one could also come down to Monday night as Brandon is likely to start Lamar Jackson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Marquise Brown. Brandon is 7-3 against Erik all-time, which includes a win in the first round of the 2017 playoffs.
Looking for his first win of the season, Geoff (0-2) will square off with one of the league’s best in Josh (1-1). For Geoff, waiver wire acquisition Mike Davis arrives just in time to fill in for an injured Raheem Mostert. It appears CeeDee Lamb will also be making his first start in Geoff’s flex going against Josh’s very own Seahawks. Meanwhile, for Josh, it’s a regular Sophie’s choice at TE where he’ll have to decide yet again between Tyler Higbee and Darren Waller. Luckily for him, that’s been a good problem to have. Once again, it’ll be Patrick Mahomes who will decide this one late, this time on Monday night. Geoff is 3-7 against Josh with his last win coming in Week 7 of 2017.
Hoping to avoid an 0-3 start, Samantha (0-2) will face off against Whitney (2-0). Though Whitney has the better record, Samantha has the better team by TW% and is currently favored by ESPN’s projections. Of course, this will also be Whitney’s first game without Saquon Barkley, which appears to be one of many shakeups to the lineup. In addition to free agent acquisition Rex Burkhead taking Barkley’s place, the Buccaneers QB/TE stack has been replaced in her lineup by the Lions QB/TE duo of Matthew Stafford and T.J. Hockenson. Look for this one to be potentially settled early with only Wil Lutz playing in the late game on Sunday night. As is the case for all of Whitney’s matchups, this will be the first time these two team owners will meet.
Finally, in a rematch of the 2018 semifinals, Jess (1-1) will take on Nick (0-2). Hopefully for Jess, Davante Adams will be healthy and back in the lineup. And hopefully for Nick, Christian McCaffrey and Le’Veon Bell will not. That’s not to say I don’t wish them to be healthy. I just hope he sets his lineup. But even if he does, it will be an uphill battle as Nick’s top three RBs are all injured, leaving a likely starting backfield of Zack Moss and Duke Johnson. (UPDATE: Zack Moss has since been ruled out for Week 3 with an injury. Yeesh…) He’s got some great pass-catchers, but he’ll need them to play (looking at you George Kittle) and play well to have a chance. Jess is currently 7-3 against Nick all-time, including that playoff victory in 2018.
Good luck to all in Week 3. Forget wins. Here’s hoping everyone stays healthy.
