Week 1 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Sep 19

Sep 19 Week 1 Power Rankings

“Holy points.”

So texted former league champion Jess to the group chat less than an hour-and-a-half into the first game of the first Sunday of our nascent fantasy football season. No exclamation point. Just a period. Like gulp.

Yes, Davante Adams went off for a monstrous 41.6 points (yup, those are decimals; more on that later), the sixth-most points by an individual player in league history and the most by a non-QB since Doug Martin’s 51 back in 2012, which is still the record (for now). Yes, Beth Ann was at one time projected for 175 points, as Josh noted, and then actually exceeded that projection. But it was the distribution of wealth around the league that was the most striking, not just the one-percenters at the top. In a typical week in the Worst League, 48 players score in double figures. This week, 66 out of a possible 108 starters did.

The reason? Three words—points per reception (PPR). Suddenly, there are a whole lot more points out there. Think about it. In Week 1, there were 747 passes completed in the NFL. That’s an additional 747 points out there for the taking. In the Worst League, team owners accounted for 309 of those receptions. That’s an extra 25.75 points per team. Want a rough approximation of how much you would have scored with last year’s scoring settings? Subtract 25 points from your score this week. Suddenly, those scores don’t seem quite as high. With that quick adjustment, only four team owners would have passed the century mark.

Maybe you have more experience in other leagues with PPR than I do. But I’m fairly monogamous when it comes to fantasy football. So after nine years of non-PPR scoring, I’ll admit I’m a little bit out of my depth. This week, I was definitely left scratching my head as I pulled up the app and checked the scoreboard.

It’s like that scene in Happy Gilmore when Adam Sandler picks up a club for the first time and smashes a drive all the way down the block. When a stunned Will Sasso remarks, “That house is like 400 yards away,” Happy—without having ever seen or played a single round of golf—can only respond, “Is that good?”

Like that’s how I felt Sunday.

When Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for the most yards of any RB in Week 1 but only scored 19.8 points, I thought, “Is that good?” When I got too cute and started Marvin Jones Jr. who caught just four balls even with Kenny Golladay out yet still came within striking distance of double figures with 9.5 points, I thought, “Is that good?” And when one of the guys I should have started, Marquise Brown, had 15.1 points on my bench, I wondered if that was truly start-worthy, asking myself, “Is that good?”

So let’s answer that very simple question. What is good?

To answer that question, I dug back through all 1,404 regular season lineups set in Worst League history and calculated the average score for every single position per player. Then I did the same thing for this season after one week. Granted, one week is a very small sample size for PPR. But this gives us a rough translation of sorts. Consider this a Rosetta Stone for PPR scoring.

Pass-catchers (RBs, WRs and TEs) averaged about 4-7 points more in Week 1 with PPR scoring.

Let’s start with non-PPR. Over the last nine seasons (a pretty large sample size), team owners have averaged 17.6 ppg from QBs, 10.0 ppg from RBs, 8.8 ppg from WRs, 6.5 ppg from TEs, 7.8 ppg from D/STs and 8.3 ppg from Ks. If we add those numbers up, multiplying the RB and WR scores by the average number of starters at each position (more on that later), we get 87.0 ppg—the average score from seasons past. Adding just one more point for all the skill positions gives you 94 points, which happens to be the average score for playoff teams. For nine years, that’s been the target—around 20 points from your QB, 10 from your RBs and WRs and then 8 from your TE, D/ST and K.

Intuitively, that probably makes a lot of sense. In my mind, I’ve always considered a “good” score to be 20 points from my QB and then around 10 points from every other position. That would get you to 100 points, which historically would be good enough for a win 73% of the time. But these days, 100 points is not going to cut it. This week, it would only have been good enough to beat one other team owner. (Sorry, Geoff.)

So what constitutes “good” in a PPR world?

This week, teams averaged 122.0 ppg, which was 35 points higher than the league average from previous years. Some of that was just a banner week for scoring. To be clear, this is a really small sample size. It’s just one week. And if we reverted back to our old scoring settings, teams would have averaged 92.3 ppg this week, which would have ranked as the 25th-highest scoring week in league history out of 117 weeks. Case in point, QB scoring was up by 6.4 points, which—unless any teams were out there running the Philly Special—is completely unaffected by PPR.

Still, it’s no surprise that the big increase in scoring came from players that catch the ball. Specifically, scoring for TEs increased by 4.0 ppg, RBs by 5.1 ppg and WRs by 6.4 ppg. Suddenly, good is not just getting 10 points from your RBs and WRs. It’s getting 15 points.

It’s like that scene in The Social Network when Justin Timberlake blows everyone’s mind when he tells Jesse Eisenberg, “A million dollars isn’t cool. You know what’s cool? A billion dollars.” Well, my friends. I’m here to tell you that 10 points isn’t cool. You know what’s cool? 15 points. Okay, it’s not as dramatic as when Timberlake says it, but you get the picture.

In my mind, that’s the new benchmark—15 points. It might be a little high. If we look at the median instead of average score for RBs and WRs, which prevents outliers like Davante Adams from skewing the data, it’s a little lower—14.1 ppg for RBs and 11.9 ppg for WRs. Another way to look at it would be to find the replacement-level value of the flex position. If you sort this week’s scoring leaders by points, the 60th-best RB/WR (which is the total number of RB/WRs in starting lineups) was Zack Moss, who had 11.1 points. So that’s probably the floor. You definitely don’t want fewer than 11 points and, at least for now pending more data, I’m going to say that you probably want something closer to 15.

So if you expect 15 points from your RBs and WRs and 10 from your TE, plus all the other expectations remain the same, that gets you to a target of 121 points, which would have ben more than enough to beat exactly half the league this week. With a six-team playoff, that’s what we call playoff-worthy. In other words, good.

Another way to think about it is in the aggregate. It used to be that you felt really good if you topped 100 points. You expected to win with over 100 points. And if you lost, that was just bad luck. Add in an extra 25 points for the average number of receptions per team owner this week and you get to 125. That, my friends, is the new 100. And scoring less than 100 is the new 75.

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. How might PPR scoring affect your strategy for building a roster or setting your lineup? With WRs seeing the biggest uptick in scoring, it’s natural to wonder whether the playing field has finally been leveled between WRs and their RB brethren.

You can see from the table above that prior to this year, RBs averaged about 1.2 ppg more than WRs. In fact, only twice in league history have WRs outscored RBs as a group, and not since 2015. It’s one of the dirty little secrets from my spreadsheet that I’ve kept close to the vest. (Hey, I gotta keep some of this stuff to myself.) Despite the fact that WRs are more likely to be used in the flex (58% vs. 42%)—probably because there are just more of them that are fantasy relevant—RBs on balance average more points. Of course, it depends on which RB or WR you’re talking about here. No one’s saying you should start Brian Hill over Julio Jones. But in the 353 matchups in league history that have pitted a roster with a RB in the flex against a roster with a WR in the flex, the RB-dominant team wins 57% of the time compared to just 43% for the WR squads. That’s a margin of +14%. Joe Biden wishes he had those numbers.

Why am I sharing that with you now? Because those numbers have flown completely out the window. With PPR, it’s a whole new ballgame. Just look at the table above to see that WRs narrowly outscored RBs in Week 1. Could this be the first year that a team led by WRs wins the championship since Jess did it with Antonio Brown and Calvin Johnson in 2014? Or does this just mean that RBs, especially the ones who catch passes, will score even more points than they have in years past. Only time will tell.

Look, I didn’t vote for PPR. In fact, I’m the only one who voted against it. But now that it’s here, I’m actually kinda enjoying it. After years of analyzing every single statistic and break in the game, there’s finally something new to puzzle over. For now, my spreadsheet may have more questions than answers. But when it comes to fantasy football, there’s no doubt in my mind:

That’s definitely good.

The Scoreboard

Alright, we’ve buried the lede long enough.

Beth Ann absolutely destroyed in Week 1. After a forgetful first year submarined by the erratic behavior of second-round pick Antonio Brown, Beth Ann formally introduced herself to the league in a big way with a record 179.08 points, obliterating the record of 152 points formerly set by Trevor (Week 9, 2011) and shared with Josh (Week 9, 2018). Don’t forget to send a Venmo request Alex’s way to claim your weekly prize.

Now you might be saying, well yeah but that’s PPR scoring. Not so fast. If we revert back to last year’s scoring system (click the arrow on the slideshow above to see what all the scores would have looked like with the old settings), Beth Ann still would have scored a ridiculous 149 points, which would have been third-most all-time. That means we may have a monster team on our hands. After Dalvin Cook slipped to the seventh pick in the draft, Beth Ann appears to have gotten a steal, not to mention two studs in Adam Thielen and Calvin Ridley. Don’t forget the last time a team owner scored over 140 points in her Week 1 debut (Jess in 2014), she went on to win the championship. This year, Beth Ann hopes to repeat that performance.

Unfortunately, the team owner at the other end of the buzzsaw was Geoff. His 92.24 points (which would have been 70 last year) ranked last in the league as all of his receivers came up short. In fact, this was the fifth-biggest blowout in league history, possibly giving Geoff memories of his nightmarish 139-49 defeat at the hands of Gray two years ago. (Don’t worry. Nick still holds the record with a 97-point loss to Trevor.) Still, I predict bigger things are ahead for Geoff. His first-round pick Miles Sanders didn’t even play. And he may have already gotten the savviest free agent pickup of the season, nabbing Malcolm Brown on Saturday before he could become everyone’s top waiver wire pickup this week.

Meanwhile, the team owner with the highest individual scorer, Jess took down Samantha 130.52-111.4 thanks to 41.6 points from Davante Adams who had 14 receptions all by himself. (For context, Geoff’s entire team had just 19 receptions total.) In fact, no team owner benefited more from PPR scoring than Jess whose team totaled a league-high 37 receptions in Week 1. Though she had the second-highest score this week, she would have been tied for just the fifth-highest score (89 points) if we reverted back to last year’s scoring settings, which is just another indication of how great the impact of PPR can be. For Samantha, the silver lining is fantastic games from DeAndre Hopkins (also with 14 receptions) and Kyler Murray (who had the eighth-most rushing yards of any player, including RBs). CRAZY STAT ALERT: Samantha has never won her Week 1 matchup while Jess has now won eight straight Week 1 games with her only loss coming in 2012.

Editor’s note: Samantha is now shouting at me that it might have something to do with the fact that this is her third double-digit pick in just three years in the league, previously picking 11th and 10th and now 11th again. Not only is this the worst draft lottery luck for any team owner in the league, but it’s the worst three-year stretch for any team owner in league history. Nobody else has ever had three consecutive years of double-digit picks. The closest runners-up are Brandon (12th, 11th, 9th from 2013-15) and Josh (8th, 11th, 11th from 2015-17) and neither made the playoffs more than once in that time. Samantha has already done it twice.

Okay, back to the scoreboard. In the second-highest scoring game of the week, Greco defeated Brandon 141.66-128 behind 35.9 points from Josh Jacobs and a resurgent Aaron Rodgers—a seventh-round pick who outplayed Brandon’s third-rounder, Lamar Jackson. Interesting to note that without PPR, Jacobs (not Adams) would have been this week’s top individual scorer. This was an especially impressive performance considering that Greco’s third and fourth-round picks Kenny Golladay and Courtland Sutton both missed Week 1 with injuries.

Finally, there were three very closeup matchups this week, all of which came down to the wire on Monday night. In the first, Erik got just enough from Derrick Henry to defeat Henry’s former team owner Josh 123.54-121.7 by less than two points. Though he may not know who Sir Purr is, Robby Anderson had a terrific debut performance in Carolina, leading Erik’s team with 25.5 points. Josh, meanwhile, could have gotten the win had he started any other player (besides LeSean McCoy) over Antonio Gibson in the flex. Or if he had swapped Tyler Higbee for Darren Waller. Nevertheless, you have to be encouraged by the play of ninth-round pick Cam Newton (25.7 points) and Alvin Kamara (23.7 points), the latter of which looked to be showing no ill effects from the back issues that caused him to get an epidural injection during the preseason.

Next up, Alex lost a nail-biter to league newbie Whitney 110.86-108.58. Needing JuJu Smith-Schuster to outscore second overall pick Saquon Barkley by about 15 points on Monday night, Alex nearly had his prayers answered as Smith-Schuster’s 24.9 points briefly pushed Alex into the lead. Of course, those hopes were dashed when a few garbage time receptions from Barkley closed it out. While Whitney’s pass-catchers disappointed, including just 3.1 points from Rob Gronkowski in his return to football, she has to be encouraged by a dominant outing from Chris Carson (24.6 points). As for Alex, perhaps no team owner has been more impacted by injuries. Indeed, he’s one of the only owners with a player on IR, and he’s got two (Deebo Samuel and Damien Harris), not to mention first-round pick Michael Thomas’ high-ankle sprain. But then again, not all injuries are bad. Marlon Mack’s season-ending torn Achilles injury opens the door for team namesake Jonathan Taylor to take control of the Colts backfield.

In the lowest-scoring matchup of the week, Gray eked (or should I say Zeked) out a 110.1-106.6 win over Nick, breaking a streak of four consecutive season-opening losses, dating back to 2016. The margin might have been a little bigger had James Conner not left Monday night’s game early with an ankle injury. Nevertheless, Ezekiel Elliott (27.7 points) continues to power Gray’s lineup for the second consecutive year. And though Christian McCaffrey (28.4 points) matched Zeke stride for stride, Nick’s pass-catchers couldn’t keep up. That includes George Kittle who left the game early with a knee injury.

Lastly, I just wanted to write a few words on decimals. When we voted to add decimal scoring to the league, I didn’t anticipate much of a change. Fewer ties and less heartbreak for sure. But one of the unanticipated consequences of decimal scoring is just how much those little fractions of a point can add up.

It’s like that scene in Office Space when Ron Livingston explains to Jennifer Aniston his scheme to steal “fractions of a penny” from his company that “over time… add up to a lot.” Later in the movie, Ron and his friends are shocked to discover that their software worked a little too well and in only a few days they’ve stolen over $300,000.

Well, it turns out those decimals do add a fraction of a point here or there. But they do that for all seven skill-position players in your lineup. The net result is an average increase of 4.0 points per team due to decimals alone, before we even get to the added effect of PPR. This week, the team owner with the biggest increase was Erik who got an extra 5.54 points just from those fractions of a penny.

I don’t think there’s anything actionable to take from this. It’s just interesting to note that the difference between rounded and decimal scoring is not 87 points and 87.1 points. It’s 87 points and 91 points. For the most part, it helps everybody evenly. Although, there are rare exceptions when it hurts, and that’s specifically for QBs. Look no further than Matt Ryan who threw for exactly 450 yards but ran for -1 on a kneel down. With rounded scoring, he would have had 24 points. Instead, he got 23.9. The decimal giveth. And the decimal taketh away.

Power Rankings

The future of fantasy is female.

With Whitney now in the fold, the league has its highest contingent of female team owners in league history with five. And to start this season, all five rank within the top 8 including every member of the top 3—Beth Ann, Greco and Jess.

As a reminder or (primer for Whitney), the Power Rankings are sorted by true winning percentage or TW%, which measures the percentage of games your team would have won if you had played every team every week. Since Beth Ann would have beaten every team this week, she’s 11-0 with a perfect TW% of 1.000. Meanwhile, the top-scoring team owner to lose this week, Brandon, may be 0-1 in the official standings, but his 128 points would have been good enough to go 8-3 against the rest of the league this week. So despite the loss, he ranks fourth, ahead even of three other team owners (Erik, Whitney and Gray) who picked up wins in Week 1.

After a season in which she finished 4-8-1 and missed the playoffs, this is a strong start for Beth Ann. Same for Greco who has gone 3-10 in consecutive years and has not had a winning season since 2017. Jess, who we already noted has a penchant for coming out of the gate strong, starts in third and once again comfortably within the top 4 for the sixth time in the last seven years. They are followed in fourth by last year’s consolation game winner, Brandon.

The middle tier includes Erik, Josh, Samantha and Whitney. This is Erik’s best start in the Power Rankings since 2014, who would love to put last year’s disastrous four-QB 2-11 campaign behind him. Last year’s runner-up, Josh will start sixth. Samantha starts seventh and hopes to return to the playoffs for the third time in three years in the league. And Whitney kicks off her career in eighth, which ranks ahead of the debut for former newcomer Adan but behind the debuts of Josh, Samantha or Beth Ann. League newbies are 2-for-4 in making the playoffs in their first season.

Finally, the bottom tier is made up of Gray, Alex, Nick and Geoff. That includes three team owners who all picked in the top half of the draft, which is a reminder that a top draft pick does not equate to fantasy success. In fact, Gray’s championship last year picking from the 4th spot was the first time a team owner drafting in the top half won the league since 2012. (Even I was shocked to discover that stat.)

Remember, it’s super early. Things will shift around. Don’t believe me? Go back and look at last year’s Week 1 Power Rankings. Ironically, they featured the same four teams in the top 4 but in a slightly different order. And yet, two of those teams failed to win more than four games all season, let alone make the playoffs.

That being said, if there’s anything that’s predictive about the first Power Rankings, it might be the top 2 teams in the rankings. Here’s something I wrote from last year’s Power Rankings:

It turns out, starting within the top 2 of the Week 1 Power Rankings is a very big deal. Not so much for third place. But the first and second-place teams in the Week 1 Power Rankings go on to make the playoffs an astounding 88% of the time. But immediately after second, the odds drop off a cliff—just 25% for the rest of the teams in the rankings.

One year later and that trend has only been reinforced. Both of last year’s top-2 team owners, Brandon and Jess, went on to make the playoffs last season. Which makes it now 16 out of 18 teams. In other words, you gotta like your chances if you’re Beth Ann or Greco.

At the same time, don’t despair if you’re not topping the leaderboard after one week. Yes, five out of the league’s nine champions started the season in the top 2 of the Power Rankings. But three of the other four were all the way down in the bottom 3. That includes the last two champions who started 12th (Gray, 2019) and 10th (Brandon, 2018). In fact, both the 11th and 12th-place team owners from last year’s Week 1 Power Rankings went on to make the playoffs. Here’s one more thing I wrote from this column last year:

So yes, right now the numbers like Brandon and Jess a little bit more than the rest. But they also say that Samantha or Gray have just as good odds as Beth Ann or Greco to make the playoffs or win the whole thing.

Wouldn’t you know it, Brandon, Jess, Samantha and Gray all did make the playoffs. Beth Ann and Greco didn’t. And yes, Gray won the whole thing.

So cheer up, Nick and Geoff. I could be quoting this sentence about you a year from now.

Looking Ahead to Week 2

This week will feature two matchups of teams hoping to avoid going winless in their first two games. The first will see Brandon (0-1) take on Geoff (0-1). It appears Brandon will be without fourth-round pick A.J. Brown due to injury while Geoff is already off to a good start with 17.4 points from Odell Beckham Jr. on Thursday night.

The other standoff of winless teams will pit Alex (0-1) against Nick (0-1) as both team owners appear to be hobbled with injuries. Michael Thomas is doubtful for Alex while George Kittle and Le’Veon Bell have already been ruled out for Nick. Also of note is the fact that Alex has not started 0-2 since 2014.

On the flip side, Greco (1-0) will take on Erik (1-0) as both team owners hope to keep their undefeated starts alive. Neither has started 2-0 since 2017; both now have a chance to do it. The question will be whether Erik, who may be without an injured Chris Godwin, can score enough points on Sunday to stave off a Monday night charge from the RB1 of Week 1, Josh Jacobs.

Also undefeated, Beth Ann (1-0) will face Josh (1-0). Despite her record-breaking Week 1, Beth Ann is currently the underdog by ESPN projections thanks in part to 26.3 early points from Nick Chubb who rebounded in a big way after a disappointing first game. I see lots of Saints and Raiders in Josh’s lineup (Alvin Kamara, Henry Ruggs III, Darren Waller), so this could be another Monday night nail-biter for Josh if Beth Ann once again puts up big points on Sunday.

Hoping to reverse a trend of Week 2 losses (2-7 in Week 2 for her career), Jess (1-0) will try to give Whitney (1-0) the first loss of her career. It’ll also be an interesting matchup of the only team owner to spend her first two draft picks on a WR (Jess: Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams) against one of only four team owners to do the same for RB (Whitney: Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson).

Finally, Samantha (0-1), traditionally a slow starter, will hope to avoid her third straight 0-2 start in a key matchup with Gray (1-0). Unfortunately, Gray is particularly strong in Week 2, having lost only once in nine seasons and not since 2014. Both are already off to great starts with Samantha getting 36.7 points from Joe Mixon and Kareem Hunt, while Gray got 20.2 points from Tyler Boyd, including 7.9 on a TD pass with less than a minute remaining in Thursday’s game. It depends on who Gray starts at QB, but this game could come down to Drew Brees on Monday night.

Well, that’ll put a bow on Week 1 and this massive 4,000+ word entry. I can’t promise they’ll all be this long. In fact, I can promise they definitely won’t. But the length of this post speaks to my enthusiasm for the season. Really excited to be playing fantasy football once again with all of you people and to have Whitney aboard. And if you haven’t already, it’s not too late to craft a new team name for the season if that’s your thing. Shout out to The Peanut Butter Falcons, Jonathan Taylor and Thomas, Team Charknado, The Marvelous Mr. Murray and, of course, JuJu Rabbit.

Good luck to everyone except Geoff in Week 2!