Week 3 Power Rankings
The tide rolls in, the tide rolls out.
That’s my general philosophy on the volatility of fantasy football. In a down week, the water recedes—your team left flopping on the shore like a hapless fish. And when the waves comes crashing back, the rising tide lifts your boat to victory. Back and forth it goes. Low tide, high tide. High tide, low tide.
I haven’t exactly run the numbers on this theory. It’s more of a hunch. But I’ve seen it happen time and again. Receivers who get shut out one week get rewarded the next. Running backs cede goal line carries or get vultured by their backfield mates. Favorable matchups give way to scheming defenses designed to stop last week’s standout. Is it possible teams just like to spread the love around. Why else would Patrick Mahomes throw touchdowns to his fullback and offensive tackle this week and not Clyde Edwards-Helaire?!
But I’m not worried about it. Some would say CEH is due. Others would call it regression to the mean. I just know that this week’s beached whale is next week’s shark. The truth is the quality of any team probably lies somewhere in the middle between these two extremes. Water, as they say, always finds its level.
The real problem for any team owner is not the shifting tides but when that sea level is consistently low. After a few weeks of subpar outings, you might suddenly discover to your utter dismay that your team’s scoring potential is not an ocean at all but rather a depressing puddle. Hey, it happens to all of us at some point.
But for every puddle, there’s a roaring sea. (Have I run this metaphor aground yet?) When a team owner starts stringing together high score after high score with different players taking turns at the helm, that’s when you have to be excited. Or really worried depending on your perspective.
I bring all of this up to say that this week we may have found our lead dog. After scoring a league-record 180.58 points in Week 2, Josh followed that up with 176.08 points in Week 3 and now owns two of the top three scores in league history. With an armada that includes Alvin Kamara (13 receptions in Week 3!) and Nick Chubb at RB, two lead WRs on offenses that like to chuck it in Tyler Lockett and Amari Cooper, a resurgent Cam Newton, and (at least he until he trades one for something even better) two top-5 TEs, this team is a force to be reckoned with. Here’s a live look at Josh to the rest of the league.
Josh would like you to know the following.
Last year’s leading scorer, 10-win team owner and first-place finisher in the Power Rankings is at it again. One year after jumping out to a 9-1 record on his way to the top seed in the playoffs before ultimately falling to Gray in the finals, Josh is determined to right the ship in 2020. I can tell by the way he craves these write-ups, the best-to-never-do-it is determined to rid himself of that moniker this year.
Through three weeks, he’s off to an especially hot start. Though he did lose a closely contested, relatively high-scoring Week 1 game to Erik, Josh is now 2-1 with a TW% of .848 while averaging 159.5 ppg. He even leads the league in both receptions per game (33.7) and in total points from RB, even though he’s started a WR in his flex in two out of three weeks.
But how does that hot start compare to others from seasons past? Spoiler alert: pretty good. In the chart below, you can see a plot of TW% and points per game for every team in league history through the first three weeks. Orange dots are this year’s teams. Grey dots are years past. Josh’s dot for this season is the one at the top right. So yeah, pretty good.
The first thing you’ll notice about the data is that orange dots are universally higher. That’s the effect of our new settings including PPR, which accounts for 84% of the increase, and decimal scoring, which accounts for the other 16%.
But because we want to compare apples to oranges (or in this case greys to oranges), I’ve also included dotted-line circles that represent where this year’s teams would have been with last year’s scoring settings. As you can see, when you look at those circles, they mainly fall back in line with the group, though still on the high end (scoring is up by over 10 ppg even after being adjusted; it’s just been a high-scoring year so far).
Looking it at this way, we see Josh is not necessarily off to the best start in league history. But he’s certainly among the elite. By TW%, only four teams (out of 120) have had better starts. And only two have been higher scoring.
Here’s a list of the 10 hottest starts sorted by most points scored through the first three weeks with adjusted point totals for this year’s teams:
Gray ’11: 134.0 ppg, 1.000 TW%, 2nd
Beth Ann ’20: 122.0 ppg, .697 TW%, ??
Josh ’20: 121.0 ppg, .848 TW%, ??
Gray ’16: 119.0 ppg, .955 TW%, 3rd
Josh ’14: 115.3 ppg, .970 TW%, 4th
Greco ’16: 114.0 ppg, .864 TW%, 4th
Brandon ’19: 113.7 ppg, .667 TW%, 3rd
Jess ’19: 113.3 ppg, .697 TW%, 6th
Josh ’18: 113.0 ppg, .848 TW%, 5th
Brandon ’11: 112.0 ppg, .727 TW%, 1st
What do you notice about that list (besides the fact that Beth Ann is second this year; don’t sleep on the sophomore sensation)? First, I see that this is not new for Josh. His name is the most frequently featured with hot starts in 2014, 2018 and 2020, which doesn’t even take into account his awesome 2019.
Second, take note of the number at the end of each row. That’s the place in which each team finished. Notice that all 10 team owners made the playoffs, finishing within the top-6. In fact, beyond that list, of all teams that averaged more than 100 ppg through the first three weeks, 17 out of 21 made the playoffs. And another two would have made the playoffs had a six-team playoff format existed.
If we’re looking for a hard-and-fast rule, every team that averaged at least 105 ppg would have made a six-team playoff. If that pattern holds this year, that would predict—using point totals adjusted to the old scoring settings—that Josh (121.0 ppg), Beth Ann (122.0 ppg) and Alex (108.3 ppg) would all make the playoffs.
And thirdly, despite those hot starts, I notice that only one of the top-10 teams actually won the championship—Brandon all the way back in 2011. And even then, his wasn’t the hottest start that year. That honor belonged to Gray who averaged a ridiculous 134.0 ppg through the first three weeks, including a perfect 33-0 in true wins, meaning he had the top score every single week—an impressive record that still stands.
But as Josh can personally attest, a hot start is nothing without the finish. And as you can see from the gold dots in the chart above, eventual champions run the gamut. Some start hot. Seven of the the teams that averaged over 100 ppg through the first three weeks played in the championship game, including four champions. But the other five took longer to heat up, including two with below average scoring and a losing TW%:
Gray ’13: 86.7 ppg, .333 TW%, 1st
Brandon ’17, 79.0 ppg, .439 TW%, 1st
This year, every team owner but Jess is averaging at least 79.0 ppg adjusted. And Jess is at 77.0 ppg. So it’s still anyone’s game.
But suffice to say, I think Josh is here to stay. If history is any indication, he along with Beth Ann and possibly Alex are more likely than not to advance to the playoffs. But that doesn’t mean the rest of us can’t still get there too or even win the whole thing.
This week, the tide may have gone out on you. But as Tom Hanks in Castaway said (in a completely different but related role from the aforementioned Captain Phillips):
“Tomorrow the sun will rise. Who knows what the tide could bring?”
The Scoreboard
Josh once again led all scorers with 176.08 points in the highest-scoring game in league history.
Did I mention scoring is up? Geez…don’t bring a double-digit score to a PPR fight; that’s for sure. This week, Josh led all scorers for a second straight week with 176.08 points as all but one team owner topped the century mark and three teams with more than 125 points lost.
But before we blame it all on PPR, I would like to point out how absolutely torrid a pace we’ve been on. Even with adjusted point totals, teams would have averaged 98.6 points this week, which would have been the sixth-highest scoring week in league history.
The highest would have been last week, by the way. Without PPR or decimals, teams would have averaged 102.0 points, which would have been the first time the weekly average would have topped 100 points in league history. Technically, these have been the three highest-scoring weeks ever due to PPR. But even with last year’s settings, they would have ranked 27th, 1st and 6th out of 120 weeks. So yeah, I’m expecting a low tide to come along pretty soon. This can’t last forever, can it?
For Josh, we fear it might. The reigning runner-up won his second-straight game by defeating Geoff 176.08-144.7. Alvin Kamara, this week’s Power Rankings cover boy, was brilliant with 13 receptions and 44.7 points. He now leads all players in fantasy scoring, including the next-closest RB by 27 points. For Geoff, Mike Davis (23.1 points) who was plucked off the waiver wire filled in admirably for Raheem Mostert. Patrick Mahomes even dropped 40 points on Monday night. It was the most points Geoff’s scored all season, but he still gets the loss, dropping to 0-3 despite the most points ever in a loss in league history. Tough luck.
In one of this week’s most highly anticipated matchups, Alex defeated Gray 147.44-125.7. Alex continues to get terrific production from his underrated RB trio of Ekeler (31.3 points), Taylor (13.2) and Robinson (30.9) and is second in RB scoring only to Josh. Speaking of guys named Josh, Alex’s QB Josh Allen (31.24) continues to show why Alex is the QB whisperer. Meanwhile, Gray’s team played well, including 22.5 points from Tyler Boyd—a shrewd roster decision. But it was not enough as Gardner Minshew let the whole team down, just 9.2 points.
Samantha finally got a tally in the win column defeating previously unbeaten Whitney 139.9-129.1. Sixth-round pick Michael Gallup (25.8 points) had his best game of the season to go along with solid performances from two Cardinals, DeAndre Hopkins (23.7) and Kyler Murray (21.7), not to mention the play of both the Buccaneers defense and kicker, which combined for 28 points. Playing without Saquon Barkley for the first time, Whitney had a stroke of genius inserting Rex Burkhead into her lineup whose 34.8 points were easily the most by any free agent RB since DeAngelo Williams scored 36 points for Trevor in 2015. Wow. A valiant effort in defeat, Whitney loses the first game of her Worst League career, falling to 2-1.
Erik easily dispatched Brandon 138.88-106.98 thanks in part to a QB change in Chicago. With Nick Foles taking over signal-calling duties for Mitchell Trubisky, Allen Robinson (28.3 points) finally had a game befitting his third-round draft status. Also breaking out was Derrick Henry (27), not to mention a successful return from injury for Chris Godwin (17.4). Brandon, meanwhile, needed a lot more out of his third-round pick, Lamar Jackson (14.18). Both he and Marquise Brown underperformed on Monday night, preventing Brandon from staging any sort of dramatic comeback despite all of Brandon’s constant group chat texts. (Sorry!)
In a matchup of the highest-rated team owners from last week’s Power Rankings, Beth Ann took down Greco 126.3-114.72. Even on a down day, Calvin Ridley (current WR1) scored 16.7 points for Beth Ann, as the team owner who leads all others in WR scoring (52.1 ppg) got back on the winning track. But it was the play of Russell Wilson (36.8) and Dalvin Cook (25.9) who led the charge, prompting me to wonder if her team name shouldn’t be—Let Russ Cook! (I mean, it’s right there.) As for Greco, she gets this week’s 🔔 Shame Bell 🔔 for starting Julio Jones, who was a late scratch due to injury. (Gotta check those inactives before game time.) Nevertheless, this game wasn’t really close. No player on her bench could have made up the difference. And the margin would have been a lot wider had the Colts and their kicker not combined for 38 points. I want to say this is not repeatable, but they nearly did the same thing last week when they scored 32 points. It’s no surprise that Greco leads all team owners in scoring at both of those positions.
Finally, this week’s clunker was a war of attrition narrowly won by Jess over Nick 105.96-91.02. If she were playing any other team owner, Jess would have lost. But the matchup played to her favor as Tyreek Hill’s spectacular play Monday night (21.2 points) pushed her to the win. Meanwhile, Nick was facing one of the most significantly injured lineups I’ve ever seen where literally every player on his bench except one (Darius Slayton) was injured. Kudos to him for filling out his lineup even in the face of such long odds—a valiant effort.
Power Rankings
Josh stakes his claim to the top of the Power Rankings in Week 3 with a TW% of .848.
In this week’s Power Rankings, I see three tiers starting to develop.
At the top are Josh, Beth Ann and Alex. You might recall that all three of those owners—with last year’s scoring settings—are averaging over 105 ppg, and no team has failed to make the playoffs with at least that many points through the first three weeks.
In the middle are Samantha, Brandon, Greco, Erik, Gray and yes, Geoff. Despite the 0-3 record, Geoff’s TW% and scoring (123.5 ppg) place him comfortably in this group. It’s not his fault teams are average a ridiculous 165.7 ppg against him. Also of note is the fact that Samantha and Brandon rank near the top despite their 1-2 records.
Finally, the bottom consists of two 2-1 team owners, Whitney and Jess, plus winless Nick. All three are averaging fewer than 113 ppg (league average so far is 127). Perhaps, it’s no surprise that all three have had top draft picks miss time—Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey and Davante Adams.
Speaking of records, no undefeated teams remain!
With losses for Greco, Gray and Whitney in Week 3, there are no unbeaten teams after just three weeks. It’s only the second time no team has succeeded in reaching 3-0 with the only previous failure occurring in 2018.
At the other end of the spectrum, both Geoff and Nick fall to 0-3. Ironically, no other team owners have more frequently found themselves with a winless record after three games than Nick (four times) and Geoff (three times). But lest you think it’s impossible to climb out of that hole, four out of 14 team owners (29%) to start 0-3 would have gone on to make a 6-team playoff, including Nick in 2016 who rebounded to finish 7-6. I, myself, did it the same year and came within two points of a championship. So don’t lose heart.
Speaking of playoff odds by record, I’m bringing back one of my favorite charts updated with last year’s data to show you what your record says about your chances of making the playoffs. These are the historical probabilities of making a six-team playoff based on the win-loss record of a team at any given point during the season.
To read the chart, simply identify the row with your team’s number of wins and follow that line to the square that matches the number of losses. The percentage you see in that square is the proportion of teams in league history that have had that record and then gone on to make the playoffs.
2-1 teams have an 8% better chance of making the playoffs than 1-2 teams.
For example, teams with a 2-1 record have a 51% chance of making the playoffs. And interestingly, their odds are just slightly better than the 1-2 teams whose chances lie at 43%. That means, for most of the league, your chances really haven’t changed all that much from where they were at the start of the season. After all, in a 12-team league where six teams make the playoffs, your odds out of the gate are 50%.
And I know what you’re thinking. There’s a big, scary 0% by 0-4 teams. And that’s right. No 0-4 team has ever made the playoffs. But that doesn’t mean you’d be mathematically eliminated by any stretch. For one, there just haven’t been that many 0-4 teams (just four in nine years). And second, it should be noted that there have been even worse teams that have made the playoffs, like Nick’s aforementioned 2016 team that started 1-6 but won its last six games to finish 7-6 and would have made a six-team playoff.
Looking Ahead to Week 4
Josh (2-1) will take on Greco (2-1) this week as he looks to stay hot. But Greco will present a challenge as this should be the first time she has both of her top WRs (Julio Jones and Kenny Golladay) healthy at the same time. Not to mention she’s already received an even healthier 25.8 points from Melvin Gordon on Thursday night. Can Greco’s defense and kicker can top a combined 30 points once again? This one will come down to Aaron Rodgers and Julio Jones on Monday night. Josh is 4-6-1 against Greco all-time, one of only two owners against which he has a losing record.
Beth Ann (2-1) will face Brandon (1-2). Another Monday night nail-biter, it’ll be Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst against Aaron Jones as they race to the finish. Beth Ann will be looking to avenge last year’s 90-74 loss, their only meeting.
Samantha (1-2) will play Nick (0-3). While not fully healthy by a long shot, it appears Nick may finally have George Kittle back in his lineup. Once again, he’ll need his receivers to pick up the slack for the MASH unit at RB, plus Matt Ryan to carry him home on Monday night. Samantha is 2-1 against Nick all-time.
Finally, three matchups this week will be impacted by the news that the Titans vs. Steelers game will be postponed as a result of several Titans players testing positive for COVID-19.
Erik (2-1) will have to battle Geoff (0-3) without first-round pick Derrick Henry. With Chris Godwin and Allan Lazard both out due to injury for Erik, this will be a prime opportunity for Geoff to get a much-needed win, especially if Raheem Mostert continues to miss time. Erik is 5-4 against Geoff all-time.
Alex (2-1) will square off with Jess (2-1). Jerry Jeudy has already poured in a respectable 14.1 points for Jess who hopes to have Davante Adams back as well. Meanwhile, might we see the return of Michael Thomas to Alex’s lineup? Alex will need him as he’ll be without JuJu Smith-Schuster due to the Steelers game being postponed. Can Jess keep it within striking distance for Adams and Todd Gurley on Monday night is the question? Alex is just 3-5-1 against Jess all-time.
Lastly, Gray (2-1) faces Whitney (2-1). No James Conner for Gray. There are decisions for Whitney to make at QB/TE where, after a solid Week 3, Tom Brady may reenter the starting lineup. But what about Rob Gronkowski? And has Rex Burkhead earned her trust? Of all the games, this one is likely to be decided the earliest, as soon as Sunday afternoon since neither team has a starting player in the Sunday or Monday night games.
Good luck to all in Week 4. May the tides bring you only good things.
