Week 4 Power Rankings
One of my favorite guilty pleasures is The Masked Singer.
If you haven’t seen the show, the concept is simple. It’s a reality singing competition where contestants sing covers of famous songs while competing with one another to be the last one standing. The twist, of course, is that the contestants are celebrities whose identities are concealed. Instead, they’re dressed head to toe in these crazy costumes. Some of this season’s characters include Baby Alien, Broccoli, Snow Owls (a two-headed costume) and Squiggly Monster. Yeah, it gets weird.
I have never been a fan of reality shows like American Idol or The Voice, but there’s something about the The Masked Singer that just does it for me. It probably has something to do with the absolute absurdity of it all. There’s nothing like seeing celebrity judge Nicole Scherzinger break down in tears during an “emotional” performance of Kacey Musgraves’ “Rainbow” by a fuzzy green monster in a plaid suit called Thingamajig to keep you coming back. And you know what? She’s right. It was emotional.
Also, there have been memorable performances from athletes including Tony Hawk, Laila Ali, Johnny Weir, Barry Zito and Victor Oladipo (that’s Thingamajig; I know, right?), plus current and former NFL stars Terry Bradshaw, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski—the latter of whom was absolutely horrendous in all the right ways as White Tiger. Here’s a video of him from last season “singing” Right Said Fred’s “I’m Too Sexy.” You guys, he outlasted Lil Wayne and Dionne Warwick. It makes no sense!
Which brings me circuitously back to fantasy football.
Every year is like a new season of Masked Singer. We’re a ragtag group of fantasy contestants with playful nicknames who compete to win an imaginary prize. Maybe it’s because they’re animals, but both Peanut Butter Falcons and JuJu Rabbit sound like the names of actual contestants on the show.
Some of us are here for laughs. Some are real contenders. Everyone feels good after the draft on premiere night. But it’s not until we step out onto the stage and start to perform, when the games are played and our teams are put to the test, that we truly discover how good or bad we or our individual players are.
And me? I’m like a member of the celebrity panel trying to decipher the clues in hopes of separating the angel-voiced Thingamajigs from the from the pitchy paper White Tigers. More often than not, I feel like the Ken Jeong of this league—the show’s terrible guesser—wildly grasping at straws from week to week.
Four weeks in, we finally have some real clues to go on. So this week, let’s remind ourselves to pay attention to the voices behind the costumes—or in this case, the stats behind the standings. Look past the records. Those are the masks. Whether you’re 3-1, 2-2, 1-3 or even 0-4, it doesn’t really matter. Okay, those numbers do matter as they determine who makes the playoffs, but even the least among us is still just two games back of the final wildcard spot with nine games to go.
Instead, let’s dig into the stats. More often that not, those are the clues that will help us determine who really has the best chance to wind up on finale night battling for that golden trophy.
So without further ado, let’s get to this week’s performances.
The Scoreboard
Geoff scored a career-high 152.34 points to lead all scorers and get his first win in Week 4.
What a performance from Geoff! After two straight losses with 133 points or more, Geoff left no doubt in Week 3, topping all scorers with a career-high 152.34 points. As he pointed out in the group chat, he found himself on the other end of weekly prize winners in two out of the first three weeks. This time, he’ll be the one taking home the extra cash. It’s his first weekly prize since Week 10 of 2017 and only the third time he’s led all scorers in a given week in his career. Now, the longest active droughts belong to Jess and Greco who have also not topped the leaderboard since those prizes were first instituted in 2017.
Desperately needing the win, Geoff defeated Erik 152.34-113.68 behind a breakout game for Odell Beckham Jr. (38.4 points). It’s not like we haven’t seen things like this from Beckham before; it’s just been awhile. Even with adjusted or pre-PPR scoring (which is what I’m calling non-PPR, non-decimal scoring to compare to years past), OBJ would have had 33 points Sunday. That would have been the most he’s scored in the Worst League since… well, since ever. It breaks the previous record of 32 points scored by Beckham for Gray in Week 6 of 2016. Meanwhile, with no Derrick Henry, Chris Godwin or Leonard Fournette, Erik struggled to support the production of Allen Robinson (23.1) and Robby Anderson (17.9) as well as Dak Prescott (37.28). Without Henry and Fournette, this team is extremely thin at RB. Gotta hope those Titans can stop the COVID-19 outbreak soon.
With his best game this season, D.J. Chark (29.5 points) propelled a James Connor-less Gray to a 136.34-113.96 victory over Whitney in their first-ever matchup. Entering the game, Gray was getting a league-low 12.7 ppg from QBs but finally got significant production from Chark’s fantasy and real-life teammate Gardner Minshew (20.94). No stranger to poor QB play, Whitney had to breathe a sigh of relief as Tom Brady (32.46) threw for five TDs, finishing second among all QBs in Week 4. Unfortunately, it was not enough as Whitney drops her second-straight game since losing Saquon Barkley to injury in Week 2.
Speaking of Whitney’s household, all I can say is, “What a game?” Samantha held off Nick 134.02-130.0. After seemingly having the game out of reach thanks to 42.1 points from Joe Mixon, George Kittle roared back to life in his first game back from injury, scoring 40.1 points for Nick on Sunday night. Needing an additional 16.42 points from Matt Ryan to close the gap on Monday night, Nick came up just short. The loss drops him to 0-4, which ties the worst start of his career, matching his start from a disappointing 5-8 season in 2013.
No shame for Greco this week as she took down last week’s top ranked team in the Power Rankings, defeating Josh 127.68-117.6. Despite a subpar game for Julio Jones (7.2 points), Melvin Gordon (25.8) had his best game of the season to go along with almost 30 points from Aaron Rodgers (currently QB5 though he was the 10th QB taken on draft day). But perhaps most notable is the fact that Greco continues to get great production from the Colts D/ST and Rodrigo Blankenship. She currently leads all team owners in scoring at both defense and kicker. On the flip side, the tide rolled out on Josh who fell back to Earth with his lowest point total of the season (adjusted to 85 points pre-PPR if you’re curious).
Neither Michael Thomas nor Davante Adams returned for either Alex or Jess as the latter outpaced the former 127.4-100.92. Breakout rookie receiver Justin Jefferson (14.3 points) had his second consecutive 100-yard day to go along with fellow rookie Jerry Jeudy (14.1), also in Jess’ lineup. Their contributions plus a return to form for Mark Andrews (20.7) pushed Jess to the win over a hobbled Alex. After already suffering injuries to Michael Thomas (a first-round pick) and Cam Akers (fifth round) plus a COVID-19 outbreak forcing JuJu Smith-Schuster (third round) into a bye week, Alex lost Austin Ekeler (second round) to a hamstring injury and hyperextended knee that could keep him out four to six weeks. He’ll have JuJu and possibly Thomas back next week, but for those keeping track at home, that’s four out of his top five picks who missed some or all of this week’s game. Can’t blame him for taking the L with his lowest point total this season.
Finally, Beth Ann defeated Brandon 111.58-107.52 thanks to the punishing performance of two Vikings—Dalvin Cook (28.6 points) and Adam Thielen (26.2), not to mention a rare passing TD from a receiver, Jarvis Landry (15.28). Brandon struggled for the second-straight week thanks in part to a combined 3 points from his defense and kicker. Still, he had a chance to win it late. After an unexpected bagel (0.0 points) from the former WR1, Calvin Ridley, Brandon could have stolen this one if he’d gotten just a little more production from the fifth overall pick, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (12.1 points). That’s what you get for drafting the rookie. This is tied for Brandon’s worst start in league history dating back to 2016 when he last started 1-3 before ultimately rebounding to finish 8-5 and make the playoffs.
Power Rankings
Josh’s lead narrows as Samantha, Geoff and Gray rise up the rankings.
Alright, let’s take a look at the Power Rankings.
After a down week, the gap between Josh and the rest of the league has narrowed, but he’s still comfortably on top. After that, it’s a bit of a free-for-all. This week’s biggest risers were Samantha, Geoff and Gray with Alex, Brandon and Erik taking the biggest dive.
In the spirit of The Masked Singer, let’s group these team owners by record and unmask them one group at a time. Ready? Say it with me, “Take it off! Take it off! Take it off!”
(I swear they say that on the show.)
3-1: “I came in like a WRECKING BALL!”
First, the 3-1 teams. There are four of them—Beth Ann, Gray, Greco and Jess. As we know from last week’s Playoff Odds by Record chart, 3-1 teams historically have a 72% chance of making the playoffs. That’s about one in four. So which of these four team owners do I believe is a Gronk-like singer hiding behind its 3-1 tiger mask?
The numbers say pretty unequivocally that it’s Jess. While Beth Ann, Gray and Greco all find themselves bunched within that second tier just below Josh, Jess is all the way down in 10th place. With a .364 TW%, Jess has not only shown she has the lowest floor in the league (78.2 points), but she also has the third-lowest ceiling (130.52). Only Nick and Whitney have failed to top that mark. Most troubling, she ranks dead last in the league in scoring, averaging just 110.5 ppg (or 83.8 ppg pre-PPR).
The truth is this is a team that has really struggled at a couple of key positions—QB and RB. Deshaun Watson, the fifth QB taken off the board in this year’s draft, has underperformed (QB13). Only Gray is getting less scoring from QBs. And at RB, she also ranks second-to-last. Remember, Jess was the last owner to draft her first RB, waiting until the 37th pick in the fourth round to grab Todd Gurley—the 18th RB taken. The biggest reason for optimism? Davante Adams. He’s missed two weeks with a hamstring strain. Now he’s got the bye. But when he returns, she’ll have an elite group of pass catchers that includes Adams, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson and Mark Andrews. If Watson can bounce back and Gurley and Devin Singletary can be serviceable, she could easily make the playoffs. Even going 4-5 down the stretch would probably be enough.
2-2: “I believe I can fly…”
Alright, let’s move down to the 2-2 teams. There are five of these—Josh, Samantha, Alex, Erik and Whitney. History tells us 42% of 2-2 teams make the playoffs. So that’s about two. The Power Rankings would say it’s Josh and Samantha. For now, Josh is still the class of this league. But let’s talk about Samantha. After losing her first two games, she has now won two straight and is off to her best start in league history. In fact, this is the highest she’s ever reached in the Power Rankings, eclipsing her previous record of fifth. And just as Josh loses Nick Chubb to injury for the near future, Samantha stands to benefit with the anticipated rise of Kareem Hunt.
As for Alex and Erik, they are two sides of the same coin, facing opposite problems. Alex ranks next-to-last in scoring at WR while Erik is worst at RB. Ultimately, I think the problems are more fixable for Alex. Ironically, WR should be his strength for a team owner that spent two of his first three picks on the position. Of course, Michael Thomas hasn’t even played a full game and Smith-Schuster had a bye week forced upon him. With both hopefully back in the fold, better days are ahead if he can withstand the loss of Austin Ekeler. Weather that storm, and he has the look of a team that could do real damage in the playoffs. He just has to get and stay healthy.
Then there’s Whitney who is extremely lucky to be 2-2, winning two games in which she scored less than 111.0 points. Losing Saquon Barkley was a devastating blow. And aside from Chris Carson and Keenan Allen, this roster is a little bit of a work in progress. Turns out “TBD” was a pretty fitting nickname. Until she can find a way to replace that hole in her lineup, her playoff prospects are also “to be determined.”
1-3: “It’s the hard knock life for us…”
Okay, now let’s unmask the 1-3 teams. There are two—Geoff and Brandon. Historically, we know that the odds of a 1-3 team making the playoffs are not that dissimilar from 2-2 teams, around 40%. So that predicts possibly one of the two. Here, the numbers strongly favor Geoff. Throw out the Week 1 clunker and Geoff is averaging 143.5 ppg with a .758 TW%, which would put him second in the league only to Josh. Even still, he’s tied for third right now. With Raheem Mostert hopefully returning in Week 5, Geoff has the firepower to rocket up the standings. The question is how much longer can this last. Mike Davis has been CMC Lite with McCaffrey sidelined. After missing two games already, McCaffrey could return as soon as Week 6, which would be about four weeks from the injury. That could be enough time to get Geoff back to .500 or even better if the injury takes longer to heal, but it’d be up to his draft day starters to seal the deal down the stretch.
As for yours truly, I’ve had two bad weeks in a row, and at eighth in the Power Rankings and eighth in points, things are looking a little bleak. I swear the roster doesn’t seem that bad. I’ve got two top-12 RBs, two top-10 WRs, a top-5 TE and the reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. At face value, that seems pretty good. But Clyde Edwards-Helaire was probably a reach. And the Ravens offense has disappointed. And when you spend a third-round pick on a QB, you definitely don’t expect to be getting below-average scoring from the position, especially in a year where QB scoring has skyrocketed overall (23.9 ppg this year compared to 17.6 ppg in years past). Still, there is hope. I expect Jackson’s numbers to improve relative to the competition. And if the Titans can ever get back on an NFL field again, my highest-drafted WR (A.J. Brown) should return to the lineup.
0-4: “It’s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine…”
Finally, there’s just one 0-4 team owner—Nick. Historically, we know that 0-4 teams have never made the playoffs. But a lot of that is just small sample size as this is only the fifth team to start 0-4 in league history. Some of this has been bad luck. Obviously, the Christian McCaffrey injury sucks. But even still, Nick has multiple games of at least 130 points, which is something that neither Greco nor Jess can say and yet they are both 3-1. Still, he’s 12th in the Power Rankings for a reason. He’s got a deep hole to dig himself out of. But theoretically, he’s done it once before when he won his last six games after starting 1-6 and would have made a six-team playoff had it existed in 2016. Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin and George Kittle have all been great. Christian McCaffrey should return at some point. The question will be whether or not it’ll be too late by the time he does.
So for those keeping track at home, my best guess for the list of playoff teams includes Beth Ann, Gray, Greco, Josh and Samantha with the final spot being a battle between Geoff and Alex. Gun to my head, I’ll say Geoff just because of all the injuries that Alex is facing. That’d be an interesting group as it’d include one playoff newbie in Beth Ann plus a return to the playoffs for Greco for the first time since 2017 and Geoff since his championship in 2016.
Playoff Picture
But that’s just my two cents. And what do I know? As I told you up top, I’m like Ken Jeong when it comes to predictions. He thought Tony Hawk was Beto O’Rourke, that Hunter Hayes was both Eddie Vedder and Donald Grover and was convinced that Patti LaBelle was Björk. So take these words with a huge grain of salt.
But the spreadsheet? That you can trust. The computer knows all. So after four weeks, we finally have enough data to pour everything into the model, simulate the season a few thousand times and see what happens. The result, of course, is the weekly Playoff Picture, which we’ve been doing for a couple years now.
What’s the Playoff Picture? For Whitney (or anyone who needs a bit of a refresher), the Playoff Picture is my weekly rundown of your playoff chances based on your current record, TW% and remaining schedule.
For a really detailed description of the methodology, check out a post from two years ago around this time, entitled “We’re All Living in a Fantasy Simulation!” It explains everything about how we calculate your probability of winning a game based on your and your opponent’s TW% and then how we use those probabilities to simulate the season 10,000 times.
But the end result is the chart below, which shows your projected record (the average number of wins and losses in 10,000 simulations), your chances of winning the division (the percentage of times your team won the division in those 10,000 simulations) and finally your chances of making the playoffs (the percentage of times your team made the playoffs in 10,000 simulations).
(Oh yeah, those little numbers above the name of each team owner are the current seed numbers for each team if the playoffs were to start today.)
How accurate are these numbers? Let’s just say that last year’s Playoff Picture at this time nailed five out of six playoff teams (Josh, Brandon, Gray, Jess and Alex). It missed on one—Samantha. At the time, she was just 1-3 and last in the Power Rankings. The simulation gave her just a 1% chance. But she rebounded to finish the season 8-5 and grab the 4-seed.
Two years ago at this time, the Playoff Picture again nailed five out of six. They were Josh, Jess, Alex, Brandon and Nick. Not included once again was Samantha who was (again) 1-3. She rebounded to finish 7-6 and snuck into the playoffs with the 6-seed.
So, now I know you’re curious. Let’s take a look at this year’s first Playoff Picture.
Current 4-seed Jess is predicted to miss the playoffs as 1-3 Geoff is predicted to bounce back.
The computer predicts Josh, Beth Ann, Greco, Gray, Samantha and Geoff to make the playoffs. Hey, those names look familiar… Oh, yeah, those are the same six teams I picked! Maybe, I’m not that bad a guesser after all.
Even though he’s a game back in the standings, the computer sees Josh as the favorite to win the Leaders Division and claim the 1-seed. But in the other division, it’s more of a tossup between Gray and Samantha where Gray has the greater odds of making the playoffs (due in part to his 3-1 record), but Samantha actually has a better chance of winning the division (due to her points lead).
Another observation that is worth pointing out—the computer is equally skeptical of Jess who has just a 23% chance to make the playoffs despite her 3-1 record, which compares to a 57% chance for Geoff who is 1-3.
As for Alex, the computer agrees with me that Geoff is the more likely team owner to nab that last wildcard playoff spot. But don’t forget about Erik. The computer actually likes him a little more than Alex too, which is an interesting result for two 2-2 teams considering that Alex is ranked higher in the Power Rankings and in total points. So what gives?
Answer: the schedule. Alex has the toughest schedule remaining with five games against the top four teams in the Power Rankings, including two games against Josh. Erik meanwhile has the easiest possible schedule with five games against the bottom three, including the chance to face both Whitney and Jess twice. See, these are the details I would quickly gloss over but the computer never fails to miss.
All that being said, there’s almost always a dark horse. You might recall that the Week 4 Playoff Picture has missed one playoff team each of the last two years. And that means somebody has the chance to emerge from the back of the pack. That team owner has been Samantha for the past two years whose playoff odds were 1% and less than 1%, respectively.
So I wouldn’t yet count out Jess, Brandon, Whitney or even Nick. In 10,000 simulations, Nick bounced back from 0-4 to make the playoffs 24 times. The most likely playoff result for him is a 7-2 finish to his last nine games that gets him in at 7-6. Totally doable.
And if there’s going to be a dark horse, that means somebody has to fall out. And it might not be the team you think. Last year, it was Beth Ann who was 2-2 with an 87% chance to make the playoffs before going winless until Week 12. And two years ago, it was Erik who was 3-1 with a 96% chance before losing six of his next eight games, the last of which eliminated him from playoff contention. So don’t rest on your laurels.
Looking Ahead to Week 5
In this week’s only matchup of projected playoff teams, Greco (3-1) faces off against Geoff (1-3). For Greco, it’ll be an uphill battle playing without Aaron Rodgers and Kenny Golladay on bye, plus the possibility of being without Julio Jones who is questionable with a hamstring injury. It’s a nice matchup for Geoff who may have Raheem Mostert back. Wanting to build some momentum, there’s probably no one Geoff would rather face than Greco against whom he is 7-3 for his career—his best record against any opponent.
A matchup of two leaders atop the Legends Division, Gray (3-1) will take on Jess (3-1). Playing without Davante Adams once again, who this week is on bye, Jess will face an interesting test. Can she prove the doubters, including me and my spreadsheet, wrong and come up with a win? Gray is 6-4-1 against Jess, though he has not beaten her since 2017.
Speaking of rivals, Alex (2-2) will take on his own personal kryptonite, Samantha (2-2). Dealing with a litany of injuries, Samantha is probably the last team owner he wants to see on the schedule. Alex has yet to beat Samantha in four tries including twice in the playoffs. (No other team owner has gone winless against any other with at least three games played.) Their last meeting in the regular season was particularly close with a final score of 128-127. All that being said, Alex should have Michael Thomas back and Samantha got absolutely nothing from Scotty Miller on Thursday night. So if ever there were a time for Alex to break through, maybe it’s this week.
Desperately needing a win, Brandon (1-3) has the unfortunate task of now facing the top team in the Power Rankings in Josh (2-2). Both team owners will be at less than full strength as Josh will be playing without Cam Newton (who is still on the COVID-19 list) and Nick Chubb, while Brandon has Aaron Jones on bye, preventing what could have been a matchup of the top-2 RBs so far this season in Jones and Alvin Kamara. Historically, Josh is 4-2 against Brandon, which is the best success rate of any team owner in the league against him, though Brandon has won two in a row.
Beth Ann (3-1) will take on Erik (2-2) in a matchup of this season’s top-2 QBs—Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. No Chris Godwin or Leonard Fournette for Erik who were both inactive on Thursday, but we will get our first look at Joshua Kelley as a possible replacement for Austin Ekeler. Can he replicate the success that Mike Davis has had in Carolina for Geoff? If so, it would definitely be an improvement to his starting lineup over rookie D’Andre Swift. Allen Robinson has already gotten Erik off to a good start with 19.0 points on Thursday night. This is a really interesting matchup here for a team owner the computer likes as a dark horse to make the playoffs. Erik defeated Beth Ann 113-86 in their only meeting last season.
Finally, this one has got to be the sentimental favorite for matchup of the week as Whitney (2-2) faces off against her husband, Nick (0-4) in their first ever battle for supremacy of their household (at least as far as fantasy football is concerned). Obviously, Nick is desperate to get a win. And 15.1 points from Mike Evans on Thursday helps, not to mention just 14.12 points from Whitney’s QB Tom Brady. The two team owners who picked first and second in the draft are now at the bottom of the Power Rankings. They are two teams decimated at RB. But somebody has to win this game. And it’s not just a win but bragging rights that hang in the balance.
The only other thing to point out about Week 5 is that once again the specter of COVID-19 has reared its ugly head and games for the Titans, Bills, Patriots, Broncos, Jets and Cardinals are all potentially in doubt. I’d say the biggest concern is for Titans vs. Bills, which has already been moved to Tuesday as a result of the now 23 positive tests for the Titans. (That’s players and personnel). The Patriots have had three positives (Cam Newton, Stephon Gilmore and a practice squad player) and their game with the Broncos has been moved to Monday night. Meanwhile, just today a Jets player was announced to have tested positive. That being said, Adam Schefter reports that both the Titans and Patriots are on track to play and the Cardinals are still flying to New York. So I think we might see all three games go off without a hitch this week.
But remember, you have the option to announce a backup player for each starter from those teams on the league message board. Alex has already started a thread here. As a refresher, these are the rules we voted on last week surrounding backups:
If the game is played, backup players will not be accepted for players who are injured or who are placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list.
To make use of this option, you must post on the league message board, choosing a specific backup player for each starter in question that you use.
You must still follow all lineup rules (i.e. 2 RBs, 2WRs, 1 flex RB/WR). If you want a WR to serve as a backup for your RB, put them in the flex.
You must post prior to kickoff of your backup player’s game. We will follow the timestamp on the league message board.
If the game is cancelled, your lineup will be adjusted, swapping your backup for the player started.
To be clear, you don’t have to do this. It’s just an option.
Alright, that’s it for the Week 4 Power Rankings. Good luck to everyone in Week 5! And remember, it’s not about the mask you wear, but the voice on the inside that counts. Here’s hoping your team can carry a tune.
