Week 5 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Sometimes, it’s good not to be the king.

To explain what I mean by that, let’s first address a good question Josh asked this week on the group chat about waivers, which is worth answering here in some detail. His question:

How is waiver order determined? It’s one of the things I’ve never figured out about FF. What’s the tiebreaker when 5 teams are 2-3? Total points scored or points against? And that would stay week-over-week? Or does ours reset?

And if Josh has that question, I’m sure many others do.

First, what are waivers? As described by ESPN, “waivers are the process by which owners can select from the pool of available players who are not on a team’s roster in the league. They may have been undrafted or dropped by owners.” Basically, it’s a system that allows for equitable access to all the free agents out there.

Think Black Friday. The day after Thanksgiving, people line up outside Walmart at 3AM and then bum-rush the entrance as soon as the doors open a few hours later in hopes of grabbing from the limited supply of discounted big screen TVs, robot vacuums and flammable hoverboards. It’s chaos.

Well, every Wednesday after the weekly slate of games has been played, it’s like a mini Black Friday. Suddenly, there are a host of players that may have popped on Sunday (looking at you Chase Claypool) or have been unexpectedly thrust into the limelight due to injury (think Alexander Mattison if he wasn’t already owned in our league). And they’re all free. That’s why they’re called “free agents.” Now, that’s a good deal.

So to prevent the anarchy of team owners rifling through the fantasy bargain bin, what’s needed is an orderly system that allows for equity and fairness. You know, like a line. Or in our case—waivers. That’s what waivers are. A weekly line to determine who gets first dibs on all the free agents.

But like with any line, the question becomes how do you determine the order? The default setting on ESPN, which is what we use, is to to reset the order of the line each week to the inverse order of the standings. In other words, the worst team goes first, then the next-worst and so on and so forth until you get to the best team. They go last. Then the line starts over until all the claims have been processed.

So to clarify, inverse order of the standings means teams with the worst records go first. And if two teams have the same record, total points is used as the tiebreaker because that’s how the standings work. If two teams were to tie at the end of the season with the same record, the team with the most total points would get the final playoff spot. So for waivers, the team with the least total points gets the benefit here. Makes sense.

Underlying that system is the idea that we want a more competitive league. To accomplish that, we give the teams that are down on their luck a little boost. It’s the same reason the major sports leagues give the worst teams in their leagues the top draft picks every year. Closer competition and parity is better for the league.

There are other ways to do it. Some leagues don’t reset the waiver order from week to week, which forces you to really consider when you want to place a claim so that you don’t waste a good position in the line. And others use a FAB system or Free Agency Budget, where team owners place monetary bids rather than claims on players every week with the player going to the highest bidder.

As for waivers, there are some finer points that I could expound upon here, but I won’t. Stuff like processing multiple claims or how waivers process throughout the week for players that have been dropped by other team owners. But I’ll let you sort through that stuff on your own if you’re interested. ESPN has a good description of how it all works here.

Instead, I’d like to bring us back around to what I said at the top. Sometimes, it’s good not to be the king. With waivers, that’s especially true. There are minor perks to being bad and chief among them is getting a top pick in the waiver order.

And that’s especially important early in the season when some of the better players are still available. In some ways, I think starting 0-1 or 0-2 with a low total score is a blessing in disguise because it allows you to grab that undrafted sleeper who popped in the first couple weeks.

This season, the player that has benefited most from early waiver picks is Geoff. After starting 0-3, those early waiver picks are starting to pay off. And none have been more impactful than Mike Davis, who Geoff grabbed off waivers after Week 2. Following the injury to Christian McCaffrey, Davis has been a force, averaging 25.0 ppg for Geoff in the three weeks that CMC has been out. Due in large part to Davis, Geoff led the league in scoring for a second straight week and has now bounced back to 2-3.

But Geoff isn’t the only one. Other team owners that have benefited from free agency include Alex who snatched up both James Robinson (19.2 ppg in four games played) and Jonnu Smith (22.7 ppg in two games played), Whitney who picked up Rex Burkhead (20.4 ppg in two games played) and Gray who grabbed Gardner Minshew (16.7 ppg in three games played).

If we plot their production on a chart with points per game from free agency on the bottom and TW% on the right, we get the scatterplot below. Gray dots are previous years. Orange dots are this year.

Alex (28.8 ppg) and Geoff (23.5 ppg) lead all team owners in points from free agency.

Here we can see that Alex’s and Geoff’s orange dots are the furthest out to the right as they’re both getting significantly more than 20.0 ppg from free agents. But not far behind are some of the other names mentioned including Gray, Josh and Brandon. For those last two, it’s been mostly points from streaming defenses and kickers.

As for historical standards, there is a positive correlation between points from free agency and TW%. In other words, teams that get more points from free agents are better. But it’s a loose correlation. Certainly, points from the players you draft—since those make up a greater percentage—are a better indicator. But it doesn’t hurt to get points from free agents.

Look no further than the gray dot all the way out there at the end. That’s my season from 2017 when I got a record of nearly 40 ppg from free agents, led primarily by Alvin Kamara who went undrafted in our league in his rookie season. And that was pre-PPR.

(CORRECTION: Gray would like you to know that in he dropped Alvin Kamara for Andre Ellington while standing in the produce aisle at Kroger in 2017 before Brandon picked him up. Also, records indicate that he wasn’t the only team owner to drop Kamara that year. In his rookie season, Kamara was actually drafted by Alex in the 13th round, then dropped at some point before finding a permanent home on Brandon’s roster in Week 5.)

All of which goes to show that it’s important to stay active. Those weekly waiver pickups can be crucial to improving your outlook for the season.

Here’s one final statistic to really drive home that point. The biggest indicator of Mike Davis’ impact on Geoff’s team? Geoff is only one of two owners (the other being Erik) to draft one RB with his first five picks, selecting Miles Sanders with the 10th overall pick and not drafting another until Raheem Mostert with the 63rd pick. And yet he ranks FIRST (!!!) in RB scoring with 50.0 ppg. Granted, Mike Davis could turn back into a pumpkin any day now (as soon as CMC returns to health), but until he does, Geoff is a force to be reckoned with.

Remember, thanks to waivers, today’s pauper is tomorrow’s king.

Just ask Geoff.

The Scoreboard

Scoring was down in Week 5 with a season-low 112.5 ppg (85.4 ppg pre-PPR).

Look out Worst League, here comes Geoff.

Leading all team owners in points for the second-straight week, Geoff scored 161.22 points (124 pre-PPR, his most ever), breaking the personal record he set last week. Since the weekly prizes were instituted in 2017, only one out of 10 team owners with multiple prizes in a single season has failed to make the playoffs. That’s a good sign for Geoff.

Speaking of which, after starting the season 0-3, Geoff is getting stronger and stronger every week, with scores in the 130s, 140s, 150s and now 160s in consecutive weeks. This week, he defeated Greco 161.22-74.7, the sixth biggest margin of victory in league history. Waiver wire acquisition Mike Davis had his best game in Week 5 with 29.9 points, including nine receptions, and is now RB7 in fantasy despite only playing 3.5 games. But it wasn’t just Davis. Four players went off for 20+ points including Patrick Mahomes (29.7), Miles Sanders (23.9) and CeeDee Lamb (20.4).

Unfortunately for Greco, she left almost half the roster empty. She started Julio Jones (declared inactive Sunday morning), Melvin Gordon (forced bye week due to COVID-19), Kenny Golladay (on a normal bye) and no one in the QB slot (despite adding Teddy Bridgewater on waivers Wednesday). As for the players who did start, they actually did really well, including double-digit scores from all five. No, the four players on her bench would not have made up the difference given Geoff’s massive lead, but it’s not ideal. That being said, we all make mistakes and have weeks where we forget to update our lineups. Plus, I know Greco has some personal stuff going on. Let’s all try to be understanding and hope for better days ahead.

Beth Ann had her best game since Week 1, defeating Erik 154.08-109.74. This is a talented roster that can really put up the points as Russell Wilson (24.48 points), Dalvin Cook (19.9), Adam Thielen (29.3) and Calvin Ridley (21.6) all had banner days. Ridley especially got back on the right track after a bizarre zero points last week. Throw in 25.0 points from the Ravens D/ST, the second-most by a defense this season, and you have a recipe for a blowout. Meanwhile, it’s a crushing blow for Erik and Dak Prescott as the QB who was on a historic pace is now lost for the season. Joshua Kelley (4.8 points) was not the answer at RB2. And fourth-round pick Zach Ertz has continued to disappoint (1.6 points in Week 5, TE15 on the season). The silver lining is that WR continues to be a strength as he is second in the league in WR scoring with a league-high 30.1 points from Brandin Cooks in Week 5.

Desperately needing a win, Brandon upended Josh, 139.0-101.06. Despite Aaron Jones on bye, Brandon got a big day from Darrell Henderson Jr. (21.8 points) to go along with monster days from his receivers Marquise Brown (19.8), Stefon Diggs (20.6) and Josh’s beloved Seahawk, DK Metcalf (27.3). (Et tu, DK?) Playing without Cam Newton and Nick Chubb, Josh saw down days for his receivers as the league leader in receptions got a combined 22.9 points from Amari Cooper, Tyler Lockett and Sammy Watkins. But don’t cry for the top team in the Power Rankings. Cam Newton should be back next week not to mention Alexander Mattison who will get an opportunity to make an impact with the Week 5 injury to Dalvin Cook.

Gray takes temporary control of the Legends Division, defeating rival Jess 133.34-110.66. Travis Kelce led the way with 24.8 points, his best game of the season, while Ezekiel Elliott contributed 23.5 points, his fourth game of 20+ points in five weeks this season. Not coincidentally, this is Gray’s fourth straight game of 125+ points—one of only three team owners that can say this (Geoff and Samantha being the others). Playing without Davante Adams for hopefully the last time, Jess got a season-high 25.0 points from Todd Gurley but disappointing games from Justin Jefferson (5.3 points) and Devin Singletary (4.3) plus a combined 4 points from her defense and kicker. As for Mike Williams’ 27.9 points on the bench, I wouldn’t sweat it as he was started in just 3.7% of ESPN leagues.

Was there every any doubt? Samantha continued her dominance of Alex, running her all-time record against him to 5-0 with a 127.9-94.32 victory. This week, the Marvelous Mr. Murray was led by team namesake Kyler Murray and his real-life teammate DeAndre Hopkins who combined for 51.4 points. Kareem Hunt, in his first game without running mate Nick Chubb, scored 18.3 points, more than making up for Scotty Miller’s bagel on Thursday night while running her winning streak to three games with plenty of bench scoring to spare. Meanwhile, no Michael Thomas for Alex yet again, though the circumstances were quite bizarre (or perhaps Fournette-ian) as Thomas—finally healthy—was declared inactive for disciplinary reasons following an altercation with a teammate in practice. Next week is a bye for the Saints. So that means just 4.7 points for the sixth overall pick through the first half of the season. And oh yeah, Alex did start John Brown who was declared inactive before the game. But I’m going to assume this was a surprise and Alex was left with no one else to play short of dropping Brown entirely. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, commish.

Finally, in Nick and Whitney’s household, I think we all knew this, but now there is no doubt that Whitney officially wears the pants in the family, nearly doubling up Nick, 92.12-51.74. Despite just 92.12 points (72 pre-PPR), Whitney escapes with the win—her first without Saquon Barkley—though injuries continue to mount as both Keenan Allen and Diontae Johnson left their games early with back injuries. As for Nick, his 51.74 points is even worse than it sounds considering that’d be just 37 points pre-PPR, which would be tied for 14th worst all time (out of 1,464 regular season games). Normally you don’t want to start any Jets RBs. But with a lineup decimated by injuries and bye weeks, Nick was forced to start two—Le’Veon Bell and Frank Gore. Luckily, Bell is no longer a Jets RB much to my chagrin as a Clyde Edwards-Helaire owner. But that’s still not a good sign. Hurry back, Christian McCaffrey!

Power Rankings

This has certainly been an unconventional season in terms of how the fates have rewarded teams with wins and losses.

After five weeks, we have two 4-1 teams and four 3-2 teams, and yet none of them are at the top of the Power Rankings. Instead, both Josh and Geoff at 2-3 find themselves with a losing record despite having won approximately two-thirds of their true games. Do not believe their records. Those are good teams.

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the Power Rankings, there are quite a few teams with winning records that have not performed as such. Chief among them are Jess and Whitney. Both are 3-2 but with a TW% of .400 or below. If this keeps up, these two could play spoiler to a host of teams clamoring for a playoff spot.

In terms of movement, this week’s biggest risers in the Power Rankings are Geoff, Brandon and Erik while Samantha, Gray and Greco all fall, despite the fact that two out of the three picked up wins in Week 5.

As for the very bottom of the rankings, Nick’s loss to Whitney drops Nick to 0-5. He is now only the second team owner in league history to start the season with five straight losses, joining Trevor from 2017. No team has ever started 0-6, but that’s a stark reality for Nick who faces Beth Ann next week.

Playoff Picture

Despite their 2-3 records, Josh and Geoff are still predicted to make the playoffs.

This week’s Playoff Picture still features the same six teams as last week—Beth Ann, Gray, Josh, Geoff, Samantha and Greco.

But what’s interesting to note is that if the playoffs were to start today, both Jess and Whitney would be the two teams claiming the final two playoff spots, not Josh and Geoff. But because Josh and Geoff are only one game back with eight games to play, the computer thinks there’s still more than enough time for the current top two teams in the Power Rankings to make up the ground.

In addition to Geoff, also moving up the Playoff Picture in Week 5 was Brandon whose playoff odds increased the most (+33.7%) following a crucial upset victory over Josh. Meanwhile, teams who saw their odds dip the most in Week 5 were Greco (-35.1%) and Alex (-19.2%).

Still, no one is eliminated. Not even Nick who still has time to turn things around as he’s only three games back of the final playoff spot with eight games to play.

Looking Ahead to Week 6

The rivalry weeks are upon us! The teams you play in Week 6 and 7 show up again on your schedule in Weeks 12 and 13.

Following the Nick and Whitney dust-up this week, Week 6 features another battle of husband and wife as Brandon (2-3) takes on Samantha (3-2). Brandon will be without superstar DK Metcalf (on bye) and Noah Fant (injured), but this may be the last time Clyde Edwards-Helaire has the backfield all to himself. After starting 0-2, Samantha is on a three-game winning streak. Brandon is 4-2 against Samantha all-time as they have split their regular season series each of the last two years with Brandon defeating Samantha in the playoffs each of the last two seasons.

Gray (4-1) will face Geoff (2-3), the two hottest teams by TW%, averaging over 145.0 ppg over the last two weeks. That trend aligns with the fact that in four out of five weeks this season, Geoff has either played against the team who won the weekly prize or won it himself. Perhaps that means that one of these two is in for a big day. Gray is 9-2-1 against Geoff for his career, including four straight victories.

Beth Ann (4-1) hopes to extend her three-game winning streak and her lead in the Leaders Divison when she takes on Nick (0-5). But this is a golden opportunity for Nick to get his first win as Beth Ann will be playing without Russell Wilson (on bye) and Dalvin Cook (injured), while Nick may make use of Phillip Lindsay who will be starting with Melvin Gordon out. Beth Ann is 1-0-1 against Nick with one win and an 84-84 tie coming in their first game against each other last season.

If ever there were a week to play Josh (2-3), this is it. Alex (2-3) gets the plush assignment as Josh will be without Alvin Kamara, Tyler Lockett and Darren Waller, all on bye. Meanwhile, for Alex, Chase Claypool goes straight from the waiver wire to the starting lineup with Michael Thomas set to miss another game, hopefully his last. After starting 2-1, both Alex and Josh are riding two-game losing streaks and looking to right the ship. Both have lost key RBs to injury. Josh is 5-4 against Alex for his career, though Alex has won three of the last four meetings.

Whitney (3-2) will play Erik (2-3). Both team owners have struggled in recent weeks, each losing two of their last three. Playing without Dak Prescott for the first time, Erik has a good opportunity for a win as Whitney’s MASH unit will be without two of her best players in Chris Carson and Keenan Allen, both on bye, not to mention an injury to Diontae Johnson. This is their first career matchup.

Finally, Greco (3-2) will take on Jess (3-2). It’s no secret I was down on Jess’ prospects in last week’s writeup. But this matchup with Greco offers a unique chance to get a win against a team that similarly may not be as good as her record suggests. Josh Jacobs and Justin Jackson are both on bye this week and Melvin Gordon will sit out due to strep throat (or perhaps it’s a bad case of the DUIs). As a result, Greco’s options will be limited at RB. Both will have key WRs back as both Julio Jones and Davante Adams should play. Jess is 7-5 against Greco for her career, including winning three of the last four.