Week 6 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Last night we had our first trade of the season.

In the past couple of years, I’ve written entire posts breaking down the dealings of the Worst League. There was the time Alex traded Patrick Mahomes for A.J. Green two weeks into his MVP season. Or when we compared Gray’s acquisition of Mike Evans to the guy who turned a paperclip into a house. And who could forget JT’s controversial Gardner Minshew trade, which practically set the league on fire?

But I’m not going to do that this year. I mean, who has the time? Apparently me. But this year I’m going to hold off on the Talmudic trade analysis. Not just because I’m lazy, but also because I’m a little worried all these breakdowns might have had some unintended consequences. Specifically, I might have shined a spotlight where it doesn’t belong.

In attempting to put these trades under the microscope, I’ve turned into that kid with the magnifying glass who tortures innocent insects. Not saying those posts were the cause, but trades were down last year by half from 2018. And this year, we’ve made it nearly half the season before our first one. And the last thing I want is for people to be hesitant to make a deal for fear of being criticized in this space.

The truth is we might have lost a league member over it. And for what? Did Gardner Minshew for Carson Wentz really upset the balance of the league? Wentz won the deal but barely and only because Minshew was benched for a short time. Anyone remember Adam Vinatieri for the Cardinals D/ST in 2015? Vinatieri won that one by 30 points, and neither Nick nor I made the playoffs that year.

So often trades are not the enormously consequential events we imagine them to be. Or they don’t go the way everyone seems to think they will. I mean, if we could predict the future, this wouldn’t be fantasy football. It’d be the election. Just kidding! (Feverishly knocks on wood.)

Trades are supposed to be fun. But the more we reduce the conversation to a discussion of who “won” or “lost” the deal, the more paralyzed we become to action. And I am as guilty of this as anyone. I teased Alex for trading away Mahomes. I wrote a whole post “making sense” of a TE swap as if anyone asked me to. Heck, I lauded Gray for that red paperclip deal for Mike Evans, but Geoff was the one who ended up with George Kittle, Sterling Shepard AND Derrick Henry. Shoot, I’d make that deal in a heartbeat today if I could.

Clearly, I don’t know what I’m talking about. But what is clear is that trades aren’t about winning and losing. They’re about two team owners coming together to make their teams better. And so often, this can happen at the same time.

Look no further than last night’s deal between Geoff and Samantha. Just before kickoff of Thursday night’s Giants vs. Eagles game, Samantha traded Devonta Freeman to Geoff in exchange for DeVante Parker—the elusive Devonta-for-DeVante deal.

It’s a trade that made sense for both sides. After injuries to Miles Sanders and Raheem Mostert—not to mention Mike Davis’ rapidly approaching expiration date—Geoff was facing down the prospect of starting Alvin Kamara’s handcuff at RB2. Samantha, meanwhile, is leading the league in RB scoring (45.4 ppg) but has struggled to find any support for DeAndre Hopkins at WR2 and ranks 11th in WR scoring (29.2 ppg). A swap of Samantha’s reserve RB for Geoff’s reserve WR makes total sense, even with Parker on a bye in Week 7.

Take a look at their fantasy footprints below where you can see that Samantha’s weakness is Geoff’s strength and vice versa.

Geoff and Samantha made for natural trading partners.

Did it work out for Geoff last night? Obviously not. Devonta Freeman left the game with an ankle injury in the third quarter and scored just 0.8 points. But the role is still valuable. (Wayne Gallman scored 16.4 points in his absence.) And hopefully, Freeman will return soon.

As for Samantha, DeVante Parker is nursing his own injury, but hopefully should return after the bye when we’ll find out what kind of chemistry he and rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa have. But at bare minimum, he should be another option for her at WR.

(Dang it. Did I just analyze the deal after I swore not to? What is wrong with me? Go to bed, Brandon. Go to bed.)

Bottom line: this is a great deal for both team owners, the results of last night’s game be damned. That’s why we got rid of the veto after all, to enable quick negotiations like this one. And I applaud both owners for coming together quickly before game time to hash out a deal. Because when trades happen, everyone wins.

So here’s to more wheeling and dealing in the weeks to come, and here’s to me hopefully not saying a peep about it.

The Scoreboard

Beth Ann led all scorers for the first time since Week 1 as she and Gray improve to 5-1.

Beth Ann won her second weekly prize of the season, making her the third two-time winner in six weeks, joining Josh and Geoff. Thanks to 28.6 points from Kenyan Drake on Monday night, including a garbage time 69-yard scamper for a TD in the closing minutes worth 12.9 points that pushed her just past Erik.

As for her matchup, Beth Ann defeated Nick 151.76-125.84. Despite playing without Russell Wilson and Dalvin Cook, Beth Ann found more than enough production from backups Ryan Tannehill (28.56 points) and Ronald Jones (26.1), not to mention a season-high from the aforementioned Kenyan Drake. Those three plus the consistent production of standout wideouts Calvin Ridley (18.9) and Adam Thielen (14.1) powered her to her second straight game of 150+ points. Meanwhile, you have to feel bad for Nick. It was a valiant effort with 21.1 combined points from Phillip Lindsay and Frank Gore, his most points from RB since the Christian McCaffrey injury. Matt Ryan (31.64) and George Kittle (23.9) were great, but it was a tough matchup with Beth Ann that did him in.

Erik easily dispatched Whitney 142.52-46.56, nearly breaking the record for greatest margin of victory in league history, missing the mark by just 1.04 points. Erik’s 142.52 points were both his season and career high. Entering the game, Erik was 11th in RB scoring, averaging just 24.6 ppg but quickly blew that total out of the water with a combined 67.7 points from Derrick Henry and rookie D’Andre Swift. As for Whitney, her 46.56 points were the fewest this season by any team owner. And if we adjust to pre-PPR settings, Whitney would have totaled just 31 points, which would have been THE WORST SCORE IN THE LEAGUE since 2012 and the fourth-worst score in league history (out of 1,476 games). Oof! That’s bad. What didn’t help was the fact she started Diontae Johnson (declared inactive Friday) and left her kicker on the bench. Shame Bell, for sure. 🔔🔔🔔

With her highest point total of the season, Jess secured a key victory over Greco, winning 133.5-108.3. Rookie Justin Jefferson almost single-handedly propelled Jess to the win thanks to 39.6 points, overshadowing Davante Adams’ return to the lineup. Props to Jess for starting Jefferson too as he was started in just 14% of ESPN leagues. Despite the low point total, Greco’s team actually performed fairly well. She got season highs from Julio Jones (33.7 points) and Christian Kirk (22.6) plus 21.4 combined points from her RBs, even without Josh Jacobs and Melvin Gordon. But the blame for the loss goes to Aaron Rodgers who scored a measly 3.8 points, which I saw somewhere was his worst fantasy total ever.

Meanwhile in my household, there was much shouting and name-calling as Brandon defeated Samantha 128.64-111.52. At QB, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray matched each other stride for stride. At RB, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (20.9 points on 161 yards rushing) proved this isn’t Le’Veon Bell’s team just yet. But it was at WR where A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs out-dueled DeAndre Hopkins and Preston Williams and were the difference in the game. Needing 56 points from Murray and Hopkins on Monday night, Hopkins had his worst game of the season. Although if 9.3 points is your “worst,” that’s still pretty good. Speaking of receivers, Samantha got a season-low 11 receptions (tying Whitney this week). This game would have been much closer pre-PPR with an adjusted score of 98-96 with Brandon barely edging out Samantha. These two, like all Week 6 opponents, will meet again in Week 12.

A critical game between two 2-3 team owners, Alex narrowly came away with the win, defeating Josh 111.18-107.08. Neither team looked strong in this one (the score would have been 85-76 pre-PPR). For Alex, last week’s waiver wire acquisition Chase Claypool (18.1 points) outperformed third-round pick JuJu Smith-Schuster (2.6), both in the lineup, which is probably bittersweet. Josh Allen (15.08) had his worst game of the season. And Jonnu Smith (2.3) left early with an ankle injury. For Josh, Cam Newton (18.48) was solid in his return, but Alexander Mattison (4.0) was a major disappointment in a week where he really needed the production playing without Alvin Kamara and a still-injured Nick Chubb. Tim Patrick (14.1) and Travis Fulgham (19.5) played admirably spelling Tyler Lockett. But it was not enough. It will be interesting to see these two play again in Week 12 when hopefully both teams will be healthier.

Finally, Gray defeated Geoff 111.08-87.4. So much for Geoff being in high-scoring affairs. The loss puts an abrupt halt to four straight games of 130+ points for him. But most damaging are the injuries to both Miles Sanders and Raheem Mostert. As for this game, it didn’t help that Odell Beckham (4.5) and Cooper Kupp (4.1) both had their worst games of the season. For Gray, he got solid if not spectacular production from almost every position, which was more than enough to put away a struggling Geoff. His middling point total (just 77 points pre-PPR) would have topped only three other team owners this week. But fortune smiles and Gray improves to 5-1.

Power Rankings

Okay, you guys. We need to talk about Beth Ann. She’s a problem.

We’ve spent so much time talking about Josh and Geoff this season—two teams currently with losing records—that we’ve lost sight of things that actually matter. You know, like wins. Beth Ann has five of ’em. And not just that, but after a second straight week of 150+ points, she’s now leapfrogged Josh and Samantha to take the top spot in this week’s Power Rankings, reclaiming her perch from Weeks 1-2.

A quick look at the roster reveals why. She has two of the top-3 WRs in fantasy right now in Calvin Ridley and Adam Thielen plus the top-scoring QB in points per game in Russell Wilson. And that doesn’t even include her top two draft picks. Scary as it might seem, her team’s true strength may lie at RB where she has Dalvin Cook (RB4) and Kenyan Drake (RB20), who has struggled but just led all RBs not named Derrick Henry in scoring in Week 6.

Remember that series of charts from the preseason that mapped the performance of eventual champions in scoring, wins and TW%? We found that by Week 6, all nine former champions were in the top 3 in both points and wins and all but two were in the top 3 of the Power Rankings. Well, Beth Ann is not only the only team owner that currently ranks within the top 3 of all three categories, she’s first in every single one—most points, most wins, best TW%. If that ain’t a recipe for trouble, I don’t know what is.

As for the rest of the league, this week saw lots of shuffling up and down the ranks with lots of very competitive teams, including a three-way tie for fourth and seven teams with a TW% above .500. Even Nick, who is 0-6, has climbed out of the cellar to surpass Whitney in this week’s ranks.

Playoff Picture

Brandon and Erik join the ranks of projected playoff teams in Week 6, replacing Geoff and Greco.

🚨🚨🚨 Alert! Alert! Alert! 🚨🚨🚨

We have two 5-1 team owners—Beth Ann and Gray. Why is 5-1 important? In the history of the league, no 5-1 team has ever failed to make the playoffs. There have been 11, including Brandon and Josh last year, and the worst that any of those teams has finished is 8-5. That means Beth Ann or Gray could go 3-4 down the stretch and still be in great shape. In fact, they’d probably be fine going 2-5. Heck, in 8 out of the 19 simulations (or 42%) in which Beth Ann won just one more game, she still made the playoffs due to her current hold over the points tiebreaker. They’re not locks yet, but the reality is these two team owners are probably playing for their divisions and the coveted first-round bye at this point.

After that, I’d say it’s still anybody’s game.

For the first time this season since we introduced the Playoff Picture, two new teams have emerged from the pack to join the ranks of projected playoff teams. They are Brandon (+24.5%) and Erik (+33.2%) who both improved their records to 3-3, following big scoring days and are now projected to make the playoffs along with Beth Ann, Gray, Josh and Samantha.

Meanwhile, losing their spots are Greco and Geoff, the latter of whom is now 2-4. Speaking of the 2-4 teams, both Josh and Geoff deserved their losses this week, but I maintain are still good teams. Because they rank within the top 4 of the Power Rankings, the computer still likes them both as playoff contenders. Even Geoff is more likely than not to make the playoffs with a projected 54% chance. Helping them is the fact that they have the two easiest remaining schedules in the league, each with three games left against struggling Nick and Whitney. No offense, fam.

Teams the computer does not like? Greco and Alex are both 3-3 and on the outside looking in given their status in the bottom third of the Power Rankings with a deficit in points. They have between a 23-26% chance. Meanwhile, Whitney and Nick are both long shots. Whitney has the worst TW% in the league and is extremely lucky to have a 3-3 record, which includes all three wins while scoring less than 111 points. And Nick… well, Nick is 0-6—the first team owner in league history to lose his first six games to start the season. Christian McCaffrey may return soon. But there’s a good chance it’s too late.

Finally, there’s the curious case of Jess. We noted last week how she had a unique opportunity to get a win by seizing upon Greco’s coordinated bye weeks and she took advantage. Now she’s 4-2 and if the playoffs were to start today, Jess would make the playoffs as the 3-seed. That being said, the computer is still skeptical, projecting her to miss the playoffs given her lackluster TW% and point total. But her odds are improving. Following a solid outing in Week 6, she’s up to eighth in the Power Rankings and now has a 47% chance to make the playoffs—a jump of +25.5% from last week. Discount her at your own peril.

Looking Ahead to Week 7

This week’s top matchup is a contest between the top two team owners in the Power Rankings—Beth Ann (5-1) and Samantha (3-3). Trailing Beth Ann in the standings by two games, Samantha is the hungrier team and now gets to face Beth Ann without Dalvin Cook or Adam Thielen, both on bye. I spy a few questionable tags on Samantha’s roster to some key players, but if everyone plays as expected, she has a good shot at the upset despite just 2 points from the Giants D/ST on Thursday night. Expect this one to come down to a battle of Arizona Cardinals on Sunday night. Beth Ann and Samantha are tied 1-1 for their careers.

In a matchup of two teams hoping to get on the right side of .500, Brandon (3-3) and Alex (3-3) will go head to head. Brandon will be without Lamar Jackson (bye) while Alex will be without both Jonathan Taylor (bye) and Austin Ekeler (still injured). But might this be the game we finally see Michael Thomas return to action? It could be sweet revenge for Thomas who Brandon passed up with the fifth overall pick in the draft to take Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Brandon is 10-8-1 against Alex all time, though he has only won one of their last eight.

Nick (0-6) is hoping to get off the schneid when he faces Geoff (2-4), and I’m sensing a good opportunity to do it. Obviously, Geoff really needs the win to stay in playoff contention. But the blight of injuries to Geoff’s RBs plus the possible debut of Le’Veon Bell in a Chiefs uniform could spell trouble. Does the most epic comeback in league history start now? Perhaps it’s kismet that the Geoff is the only active team owner in the league against whom Nick has a winning record with a career mark of 6-5, including wins in three of the last four.

Desperately needing a win, Josh (2-4) will have a chance to get right against Whitney (3-3). Alvin Kamara will be back in the lineup this week for Josh and ready to rock. But I wouldn’t count out Whitney just yet. Chris Carson is likewise back in her lineup following his bye week as are a few talented pass-catchers. Josh and Whitney’s first career matchup could come down to Tyler Higbee on Monday night.

Erik (3-3) will hope for Derrick Henry to keep it going next week when he faces Jess (4-2). He’s already gotten 27.76 big points on Thursday night from free agent pickup Carson Wentz. But the real show will be the aerial battle between the league’s second and third-most prolific WR corps, trailing only Beth Ann’s. It’ll be Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin and Robby Anderson versus Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and the flex WR of Jess’ choice. Unfortunately for her, Justin Jefferson will have to sit this one out (on bye). And both teams will be searching for fill-ins at TE as Jess looks to replace Mark Andrews (on bye) and Erik will look to replace Zach Ertz (on IR). Jess has dominated this series historically and is 8-3 against Erik for their careers.

Finally, Gray (5-1) will hope to expand upon his league-best fourth start of 5-1 or better when he takes on Greco (3-3). This week, there’ll be no Myles Gaskin for Gray, but perhaps it’s Greco that will be missing her real MVP in the Colts D/ST and Rodrigo Blankenship. Thanks to her reliable defense and kicker, Greco is second in scoring at both D/ST and K, averaging at least 11.0 ppg from each position. Gray is 8-5 against Greco all time including a win in the 2013 championship final.