Week 7 Power Rankings

It’s that time of year again.

When the leaves turn orange and injuries to Melvin Gordon, Sony Michel and LeSean McCoy pile up like the autumn foliage. When bye-week hobgoblins make ghouls out of Aaron Rodgers and Antonio Brown. When fantasy vampires LeGarrette Blount and Ronald Jones deprive lead backs of their touchdown lifeblood.

Yes, it’s nearly Halloween.

Which means we’ve reached the midpoint of our season and with it, the NFL trade deadline. The result for some is trick. For others treat.

Such was the case with the real-life trade of Carlos Hyde from the Cleveland Browns to the Jacksonville Jaguars this past Friday. Suddenly, several team owners were affected including Josh, Gray and JT.

For Josh, Carlos Hyde’s (RB14) move to Jacksonville could be treat—a Snickers bar, a bag of Peanut M&Ms or a better offensive line. But it could also be short-lived—chocolate that melts in your hand when Leonard Fournette returns from injury. Suddenly, a weekly starter at RB could have evaporated.

For Gray, there’s no sugar-coating it. At best, this move is like getting an apple (and not the candied kind), and at worst it’s a bag of flaming dog poop. That’s because at minimum this means the Jaguars aren’t expecting Fournette to return from injury anytime soon. Worse still, the handcuff he’s been using in Fournette’s place, T.J. Yeldon (RB9), is suddenly obsolete. And quite possibly Hyde eats into Fournette’s usage when he does return from injury.

But for JT, the move gives him new life. That’s thanks to Nick Chubb, the new starter in Cleveland who previously mustered 22 points on just 3 carries in Week 4. In his first start this week, Chubb responded with a respectable 14 points. It seems JT has a new toy at RB.

No, it wasn’t enough to get the win in Week 7. Though he scored the second-most points this week, JT was unfortunately paired with Josh who led all scorers. (What can I say? Nobody escapes this time of year without a few frights.) But for an owner that normally spoils his dinner on the candy that is WR, JT is suddenly eating his vegetables—starting three RBs in Kerryon Johnson, Nick Chubb and (at least for now) Latavius Murray.

So even though I normally reserve this intro (my version of the game ball) for an owner that won, I’m giving it to JT. Because I think he did win this week even if that’s not what the scoreboard shows. To hell with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and their combined 44 points on SNF. JT with a revitalized backfield is the story this week.

And there’s nothing spookier than JT with a good RB. Or three.

The Scoreboard

In Week 7, Josh led all scorers with 119 points thanks again to the play of his Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. Their aforementioned 44 points were enough to overcome the 21-point deficit he faced entering Sunday night. It also helped that James White had the Patriots backfield all to himself. The result is Josh’s second weekly prize of the season after capturing his first in Week 1. He previously won one other weekly prize in Week 3 of 2017.

Surprisingly, JT actually outscored Josh 50-48 at RB in Week 7, both of whom started three RBs. But it was the superior play of Mahomes and ironically the inferior play of JT’s seventh-round pick, the Jaguars D/ST, which came up short, scoring just 3 points compared to 14 for Josh’s defense.

Josh led all scorers in Week 7 with 119 points.

In the week’s highest profile matchup, Brandon overcame a near-record 33 points from the Broncos D/ST to defeat Alex 101-94 in a battle of the two teams atop last week’s Power Rankings. The Broncos D/ST were the top individual scorer in Week 7 and their 33 points were the second-most points by a defense in league history, bested only by Nick’s 34 points from the Bears D/ST in Week 10 of 2011. Astoundingly for both owners, Nick also came up short that week as well. Ultimately, it was the play of Kareem Hunt whose 31 points were enough to top both Andy Dalton and Evan Engram.

In another key matchup with implications on the playoff race, Jess defeated Erik by a score of 104-86. However, that final score is a bit misleading, considering almost 40% of her scoring came from defense and kicker. In fact, if we remove those two positions from the box score, Erik wins by the wide margin of 90-64. Jess got 40 points from her defense and kicker! Erik got -4… Hard to win when that happens. Even if you do have Todd Gurley.

Samantha defeated Trevor 98-71 behind strong performances from WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Emmanuel Sanders, both of whom topped the 20-point mark. With another 19 from John Brown on the bench plus the normally solid Kenny Golladay, a recovering Cooper Kupp and new Cowboy Amari Cooper, Samantha has enough receivers to fill two rosters. Any WR-needy owner could do worse than to look here for trade targets. Meanwhile, Trevor continues to struggle at RB. With Dalvin Cook still frustratingly on the verge of a return, Mark Ingram and Austin Ekeler (who got the start for an injured Melvin Gordon) both disappointed.

Gray, despite his many troubles at RB, continues to find ways to win with an 84-66 victory. This week his strategy appeared to be playing Greco, which for everyone but Brandon has been a terrific play. In what is now her sixth consecutive loss, Greco got just 20 points from players outside the QB and RB positions. To be fair, her team was without three key starters (Antonio Brown, Doug Baldwin and Chris Carson) who were all on bye. Still, Greco has not topped 78 points since Week 2.

Finally, Nick advances to 6-1 with an 84-65 victory over Geoff. It was a disappointing 84 points for Nick, but that was more than enough to get the job done against Geoff who was without LeSean McCoy due to a concussion not-to-mention the still absent Le’Veon Bell. At least it was due to the Steelers bye week this time.

The Power Rankings

We have a different, but familiar owner in the #1 spot of the Power Rankings! It’s Josh who regains his perch atop the rankings following a two-week hiatus. Nevertheless, it’s a closely contested group at the top that includes both Brandon and Alex who are all separated by just three true games. Unfortunately for Alex, I’m sure that’s little consolation when you have a losing record and must play the two teams ahead of you in the rankings an additional two more times this season.

In the middle tier, Erik moves up one spot into a tie with Nick. They along with Jess form the top half of the middle group with both Nick and Jess benefitting from inflated records that are the result of good luck. According to their TW%, all three should probably be 4-3. And yet Nick and Jess have far exceeded that mark while Erik has fallen one game short.

In the back of the middle tier, JT moves up two spots into seventh following his good week. Despite the loss dropping him to 2-5, his squad actually rates as the better team compared to either Samantha or Trevor who are both 3-4.

Finally, our bottom tier consists as usual of Gray, Geoff and Greco. What’s remarkable, however, is that Gray has a 4-2-1 record despite a team that has won fewer than 30% of its true games. That’s a game-and-a-half better than Alex who has won over 70% of his true games. Collectively, they represent the luckiest and unluckiest team owners so far this season. If both keep this up, Gray is on pace for the luckiest season of all-time while Alex is on pace for the second-unluckiest, only worst-ed by his 2-10-1 season from 2014 despite winning 50% of his true games. However, we’re only halfway through the season and its likely both team owners regress to the mean.

The Playoff Picture

You might have looked at the Power Rankings this week and noticed that they are very different from the official standings. That’s because luck has played a much larger role this season, at least in the first half of the season, than I would estimate it typically does. The fact that team owners like Nick (6-1, .565), Jess (5-1-1, .558) and especially Gray (4-2-1, .299) have winning records while Erik (3-4, .565) and especially Alex (3-4, .714) have losing records has serious consequences on our Playoff Picture. That’s because despite what your TW% says, your record is what actually determines whether or not you make the playoffs.

Given that, it’s no surprise to see that Gray is currently projected to take the final wildcard spot in the playoffs with a projected 6-6-1 record despite what rates as a bottom-three team. That means with a current 4-2-1 record, he’s projected to go 2-4 down the stretch. Perhaps it’s not coincidental that he plays the only two teams below him in the Power Rankings (Geoff and Greco) an additional two times. In fact, he has one of the easiest schedules in the league with four games this season against Geoff and Greco. Win those and he had to go just 2-6-1 against the rest of the league. Luckily for him, he’s already done the hard part. As a result, the computer gives him a 47% chance to make the playoffs.

As for the rest of the teams, we see differences in seeding if perhaps not in playoff outcomes. For example, Nick, Brandon, Jess, Gray, Josh and Alex, would all make the playoffs if they started today. All of those teams, with the exception of Gray, happen to rate in the top half of the Power Rankings. The one team who’s on the outs? Erik.

So team owners like Josh and Alex who rate in the top tier of the Power Rankings but have disappointing records are not really in danger of missing the playoffs (though it would be a much different story if we were still doing a four-team playoff). With their points lead, both are fairly safe bets to claim one of the last two wildcard spots, though Alex’s fate is less assured with a 78% chance to make the playoffs. However, Alex’s chances at a top-two seed and a first-round bye are really quite slim despite the fact that he has the better team to either Nick, Jess or Gray who are all ahead of him in the standings in the Legends Division. That race is really between Nick and Jess. In the other half of the bracket, it’s a two-team race between Brandon and Josh for the top seed in the Leaders Division, though both are near-locks to make the playoffs (>95%).

Despite all of this, there’s still a large group of team owners in contention for playoff spots currently being contested by Alex and Gray. Those owners are Erik (35%), Samantha (28%), Trevor (14%) and JT (5%). Of those owners Samantha saw the biggest increase in odds with a 20% jump while Trevor and Erik saw their odds fall by 24% and 28% after key losses this week to Samantha and Jess, respectively. And as always, I’d like to remind us all that these odds don’t take into account trades, mounting injuries or the fact that JT has a new RB to play with.

Finally, Geoff and Greco are not mathematically eliminated (I’ll let you know when that’s the case), but it’s not looking good as only a handful of the 10,000 simulations resulted in either of these two teams making the playoffs. Both are facing big holes in the standings and must reverse a six-weeks-long trend of poor play.

Looking Ahead to Week 8

Week 8 has already started in earnest with last night’s game between the Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins. And we already saw some explosive scoring, not only from the usual suspects like Deshaun Watson (30) and DeAndre Hopkins (20), but also from somewhat unexpected places like Kenyan Drake (20) and Lamar Miller (19). The latter will be especially important to team owners like Greco who is hoping to get back on the winning track and Gray who is hoping to keep his good fortune going.

In Week 8, we have several key matchups, though perhaps none more important than Erik and Gray, who are both battling for playoff contention. A win would not only lift Erik to 4-4, but also drop Gray to 4-3-1, which Erik needs if he’s going to catch and pass one of the teams ahead of him in the standings.

The same could be said for Alex and Trevor who are both 3-4 and will find themselves in a dogfight in Week 8. Winner gets to .500. Loser falls uncomfortably to 3-5 with just five weeks to go. Unfortunately for Alex, he will be without first-round pick Ezekiel Elliott. Though James Conner will still be starting for the Steelers, at least for one more week.

Jess at 5-1-1 will have a good shot to take down Josh who will be without Tevin Coleman who is on bye. A win would help her keep pace with Nick for the top overall seed while Josh needs to do the same with Brandon in the other division.

Speaking of Brandon, he’ll be taking on a reborn JT in a game that might see a reversal of season-long trends. While JT is suddenly chock full of RBs, Brandon, the league leader in RB scoring with 41.6 ppg, is now without both Melvin Gordon and Sony Michel, at least for Week 8 and might be relying on three WRs. Ironically, JT will be without his first- and second-round WRs (Julio Jones, Keenan Allen) who are both out on bye.

Geoff is hoping his matchup with Samantha is his last game without Le’Veon Bell, though who really knows? Meanwhile, Samantha will be looking to build momentum off last week’s win in hopes of returning her team to .500. Perhaps Bilal Powell’s injury will pave the way for one of Isaiah Crowell’s high-scoring weeks. Ironically in a bit of whack-a-mole, Samantha has yet to start Crowell in a week in which he posted double figures.

Finally Nick will be gunning for a win over Greco to officially guarantee himself a winning season and push his team to a seventh win for just the second time in league history. More importantly, he’d be one step closer to that first-ever playoff appearance. Meanwhile, a loss for Greco (who will be without Dion Lewis, Corey Davis and Mohamed Sanu) would officially guarantee her the first losing season of her career as Greco has never lost more than six games in a season. Given their historic standings in the league and the precipice at which each team owner currently sits, there’s perhaps no better matchup in Week 8 than a game between Nick and Greco to potentially seal their formally unprecedented fates.

It’s been a great first half of the season. Let’s keep it going into into the second half as the playoff race heats up. And despite what the projections say, you’d be wise not to get complacent or to throw in the towel just yet. It's still anyone’s game. That’s because things can change quickly in this game.

Today’s trick is tomorrow’s treat.