Week 6 Power Rankings
🚨🚨 Red alert! This is not a drill. 🚨🚨
Nick is 5-1!!! Nick, yes that Nick, has five wins and just one loss. Nick has never been 5-1. In fact, four times he’s failed to win five games in an entire season, let alone in the first six weeks. And he’s only ever won more than five games once, which ironically was in 2016 when he started 1-6.
So yeah, we’re in completely uncharted territory here as it relates to Nick.
In the history of the league, seven teams have started 5-1. All seven went on to make the playoffs and that includes our first three champions—Brandon (2011), Greco (2012) and Gray (2013). At this point, Nick probably just needs to finish 1-6 or 2-5 to make the playoffs. Going 3-4 would no doubt cinch it.
And you know what? I don’t think this is a fluke. Nick’s team is legitimately good. His TW% (.606) ranks fourth and he’s averaging 98.0 ppg, which also ranks fourth. And in four of his five victories, he’s scored 97 points or more, which I would deem worthy of a win considering that is well above average. His only win that you might call “lucky” was a victory over Samantha in Week 4 in which he scored just 81 points. Is his team “5-1” good? Probably not. But by TW% we can extrapolate that it’s closer to “4-2” good than it is to 3-3.
As for the roster, it’s a solid bunch led by sixth-overall pick Saquon Barkley. The rookie sensation scored a career-high 28 points in Week 6 and has so far posted double-digit point totals in all six games. According to ESPN, it’s the second most points over a six-game stretch to start a career since at least 1950 and is easily on pace to shatter Eric Dickerson’s rookie record for fantasy points from 1983.
And remember, Barkley could have belonged to Gray had he not traded back two spots in the draft to select Leonard Fournette, a player that has so far totaled just eight points all season long. It appears the curse of the sixth pick might be over. Here’s what I wrote before the season started about Nick’s draft position:
“And perhaps most damning is the fact that the sixth pick is the only draft position to have never made the playoffs. It's a curse! But perhaps that's exactly what Nick needs—for the odds to be stacked against him. It's the one team owner to have never made the playoffs drafting from the one position to have never made the playoffs. Two negatives equal a positive, right? If ever there were a year or a way for Nick to make the playoffs, maybe it's this one.”
Nick Draft Preview, 9/4/18
Indeed, it looks like it might be.
Beyond Barkley, Nick has second-round pick Michael Thomas, who has played very well, plus has gotten meaningful contributions from RBs Alex Collins and Alfred Morris, not to mention Tarik Cohen who has yet to start for Nick but is averaging 19.5 ppg over his last two games. At QB Matt Ryan has backed up a lackluster start for Russell Wilson. And WRs Demaryius Thomas, Sammy Watkins and new trade acquisition, Chris Godwin, fill out the major skill positions adequately.
Finally, TE has been one of Nick’s biggest strengths. In a year in which TE scoring is down (see our post from Friday), Nick is averaging 10.7 ppg from the position, which ranks first, thanks in large part to Eric Ebron who has already scored six TDs in just six weeks.
All of that notwithstanding, I do tend to think this roster has overachieved, but it’s hard to argue with the results. This year, Nick’s team is kind of like Rick Moranis’ Pee-Wee football squad from Little Giants. Saquon Barkley is Icebox. Michael Thomas is Junior. But the rest are a group of ragtag kids that are playing a little over their heads for an oft-maligned coach who is used to getting noogies at the knuckles of his more accomplished older brother. (So kind of like the actual Giants, I guess.)
But as they say, with a little intimidation, anything is possible.
Nick’s team in 2018 after years of being picked on by all the other teams in the league.
As for the games ahead, I do believe at least a few losses are coming. As we discussed last Sunday, Nick’s upcoming schedule has some bumps in the road, particularly a three-week stretch from Weeks 9-11 when he plays Erik, Josh and Brandon. Week 9 also happens to be Barkley’s (a.k.a Icebox’s) bye week. But by then, there’s a chance Nick might have already locked up a playoff spot. Could Nick be (gasp!) 7-1 by Week 9? It’s not only possible. It’s likely.
In fact, I’m calling my shot right now. By the time the Week 8 Power Rankings roll around, Nick will have extended his winning streak to six games and have a 7-1 record. Book it!
Now, do I think Nick goes undefeated down the stretch and captures a record 12 wins, a feat which has never been accomplished? No. But I think the question is now officially not whether or not Nick makes the playoffs, but whether he claims one of the two first-round byes.
He’s just that good.
The Scoreboard
This week’s slate of games saw a nearly unprecedented 1,194 points scored in a single week for an average of 99.5 ppg, which was the highest scoring week since Week 2 of 2011! Over half the league’s teams (seven total) hit triple digits for only the third time in league history. Needless to say, this breaks this season’s record for most points in a given week (set in Week 4) and raises the league average scoring this season to 92.2 ppg, which is blisteringly hot.
Nick’s aforementioned victory came at the expense of Trevor who lost 100-129. For Trevor, it was truly a valiant effort with both Mark Ingram on bye and Dalvin Cook out with an injury. Forced to head to the waiver wire, Trevor actually scrounged together eight points from Ty Montgomery and 11 from Taylor Gabriel to get to a respectable 100 points for the week. But it was simply not enough to keep pace with dominant showings for Saquon Barkley (28 points), Matt Ryan (27) and the Texans D/ST (21).
But Nick’s 129 points were not the most points scored this week. That honor went again to Brandon who scored 130 and seems to have developed a knack for this thing, having won half of the weekly prizes this season through six weeks. That now brings his total to at least a share of eight out of 19 prizes since they were instituted last season or over 42%. Despite just eight points from the combo of Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller, Brandon’s trio of RBs poured in the points including 56 from Melvin Gordon and Kareem Hunt on Sunday night to take the lead by a single point. Unfortunately for Brandon, that victory came at the expense of Samantha who herself scored a respectable 102 points. This is Samantha’s second loss this season in which she’s scored triple digits, tying her with Alex for most 100-point losses. By comparison, Geoff and Gray have a combined 4.5 wins with 83 points or less and just one 100-point game between them.
Meanwhile, the Worst League’s most anticipated match-up of Week 6 lived up to the hype as Alex defeated Josh in a crucial come-from-behind 112-108 four-point victory. After Josh racked up 108 points over the weekend including a devastating 21-point play late in the fourth quarter from potent scoring tandem Patrick Mahomes (trade revenge!) and Tyreek Hill, Alex needed 21 points to close the gap with only Davante Adams left to play. A particularly bitter Alex then proceeded to complain about the unfairness of a league in which opponents dared to score more than 70 points against him. (The unmitigated gall!) Luckily, Davante Adams wasn’t ready to concede anything. And though Adams had yet to top 20 points in a single game, the second-round pick put Alex’s team on his back, scoring 25 on MNF including a 16-yard TD with 1:55 left to play that put Alex up for good, evening the ledgers of two of the league’s top teams at 3-3.
Score one for the WRs! JT notched his second victory of the season in an upset win over Erik thanks to the balanced play of Julio Jones (14 points), Allen Robinson (12) and Keenan Allen (10). Though combined those WRs barely managed to outscore Erik’s #1 overall pick Todd Gurley, Andrew Luck (22), Stephen Gostkowski (22) and injury fill-in Latavius Murray (21) all contributed to the overall team effort, taking down Erik by a score of 115-86 despite Erik having the week’s top overall scorer in Gurley (33 points). This breaks a four-game losing streak for JT.
In a low-scoring affair between Geoff and Gray, the Mike Evans revenge game proved to be quite the dud at 78-69. The trio of players Geoff received in the October 3rd deal with Gray (Derrick Henry, Sterling Shepard and George Kittle) managed just eight combined points while Mike Evans, for his part, registered just five. Aaron Rodgers almost made it interesting on MNF, but Gray ultimately came away with the nine-point victory to advance to 3-2-1. Geoff falls to 2-4.
Finally, Jess picked up a 90-75 win over Greco in the Mason Crosby redemption game. Jess’s kicker, who just last week scored zero points on five missed kicks, rewarded her faith in his abilities with 17 points on Monday night to seal the victory. (It’s really remarkable the Packers fan started him again.) But for Greco, it’s yet another loss. Her fifth on the season and the first five-game losing streak of her career. It’s now Greco’s fourth consecutive game scoring in the 70s or lower and the third time this season she’s had the worst or second-worst score of the week.
And with Nick winning, it feels a little like we’ve stepped into some other parallel universe.
The Power Rankings
Not a lot of movement this week in the Power Rankings as teams have begun to stabilize after six weeks or nearly half the regular season. But we do have a little shuffling near the top.
Alex maintains his hold atop the Power Rankings for a second week, but is now joined by Brandon in a tie for first place. Both have a TW% of .742 though Brandon technically owns the tiebreaker by eight points. They are joined by Josh, who slips down one spot into third, to form a top tier of teams that have all won greater than 70% of their true games.
Next up is a large middle tier that I would say consists of six teams including Nick, Erik, Jess, Trevor, Samantha and JT who have all won between 40-60% of true games. Of course, not all of these teams have fared equally. Nick and Jess both rate as teams that have outperformed their TW% with records of 5-1 and 4-1-1, respectively. For example, Trevor and Jess have a nearly identical TW% and yet Trevor trails Jess by 1.5 games in the standings. Meanwhile, Erik, Samantha and JT have been less lucky, each winning at least 0.5 games less than their TW% suggests they should have.
Finally, the bottom tier consists of Gray, Geoff and Greco, three former champions, all of which have won fewer than 30% of their true games while averaging less than 85 ppg. Though for Gray, it’s remarkable that he actually has a team that is over .500.
That’s because Gray has had some of the worst injury luck this season, getting a combined 15 points from his top two picks Leonard Fournette and Devonta Freeman through the first six weeks. I mean, imagine how Nick’s team would be without Saquon Barkley and Michael Thomas. Or Alex without Ezekiel Elliott and Davante Adams. Or Brandon without Kareem Hunt and Melvin Gordon. Or Josh without Alvin Kamara and Patrick Mahomes (who he received in a trade for second-round pick A.J. Green). Not good, right? It’s not that those picks have busted by the traditional sense. They’ve just been injured. And that’s really unlucky.
But as the numbers go, he is statistically the luckiest team so far this season with a TW% that suggests he should have won no more than two games. Twice he’s won games in which he scored 82 points or fewer. And a third time he managed to get a tie out of a 75-point game. For most owners, especially this season, that’s three losses right there. But to get an even better idea of just how lucky Gray’s been, take a look at his true record compared to Josh’s, which is basically the exact opposite.
Josh is 47-19-0.
Gray is 19-46-1.
And yet Gray has a better overall record with a half game lead on Josh in the standings. But hey, that’s fantasy.
The Playoff Picture
Were the playoffs to begin today, Nick and Brandon would be your division leaders, each receiving a first-round bye, with Jess, Gray, Josh and Alex all joining as wildcard teams. Erik and Trevor, though also 3-3 like Josh and Alex, would miss out on the playoffs due to the points tiebreaker. But if we look at our projections, they tell a slightly different story.
Despite Gray’s current lead in the standings, the computer doesn’t like his chances to advance to the playoffs (27%) relative to a couple other team owners, namely Erik (63%) and Trevor (37%). Though Gray leads them by a half game, the computer sees it as likely that either Erik or Trevor surpasses him in the final seven weeks due to inferior team quality. That being said, Gray was the biggest riser in the Playoff Picture this week and does have the easiest schedule remaining with two games left against Greco and one against Geoff, the two teams below him in the Power Rankings. If he can win just those three games, that would get him to at least 6-6-1. And though he’s not likely to get a lead in points, that tie on his ledger would essentially act as a tiebreaker over any 6-7 teams. And if he can somehow win four games to get to 7-5-1, he’s probably a lock.
As for the rest of the Playoff Picture, Nick with his 5-1 record actually leads in playoff chances, which are now at 99%. (What a world?!) He also has a 65% chance to win the division and the first-round bye relative to an 18% chance for Alex (two games back in the standings) and 17% for Jess (a half game back).
Speaking of Alex, both he and Josh are still favorites to make the playoffs despite their 3-3 records. Both easily rate as the unluckiest team owners so far this season, but they’re not so far behind that they can’t catch up or even win their divisions. The computer actually like’s Josh’s chances a little more than Alex’s as Josh has the easier schedule, though Alex has the slightly better team.
Jess like Nick, despite her position as the sixth-ranked team in the Power Rankings, has the advantage of a good head start at 4-1-1 and is a Mason Crosby missed extra point away from 5-1. It’s not an entirely easy road ahead with four games remaining against teams ahead of her in the Power Rankings, though she does have two games left against Geoff and Greco. The computer currently gives her an 86% chance to make the playoffs, her odds rising by 7% from last week.
Currently, Erik and Trevor are battling it out for the final wildcard spot. Both saw their chances fall the most in this week’s Playoff Picture after losses to JT and Nick, respectively. Both are 3-3. But the computer favors Erik a little more given that he’s higher in the Power Rankings and currently owns the points tiebreaker (albeit by six points).
Finally, of the teams on the outside looking in, the computer likes Samantha’s chances (8%) the most with JT just behind at 5%. At this point, given their records and their position within the Power Rankings, Geoff and Greco both rate as long shots. However, it should be noted that Geoff or Greco did win at least six of their final seven games in a combined 29 out of 10,000 simulations. So don’t lose hope yet. Keep fighting the good fight! After all, things could change drastically with the return of Le’Veon Bell as soon as Week 8. Or for Greco, if the offenses of the Titans (Dion Lewis, Corey Davis) or Seahawks (Chris Carson, Doug Baldwin) can finally wake up.
Looking Ahead to Week 7
This week, Alex (3-3) has another huge matchup with a team battling for the top spot in the Power Rankings. Last week it was Josh. This week it’s Brandon (4-2) who is on a three-game winning streak. It’s the first of two meetings between the two with the next coming in Week 13. But to get the win this time, Alex will have to do it without Week 6 hero Davante Adams or super sub James Conner who has played phenomenally in Le’Veon Bell’s absence, rating as RB4. Now Alex will have to turn to the Broncos RBs (Lindsay/Freeman) or Matt Breida in the weeks ahead to replace Conner’s scoring.
Meanwhile, Jess (4-1-1) and Erik (3-3) both look to maintain their positions within the standings. A win for Jess would help her keep pace with Nick in the Legends Division while Erik hopes to get back on the winning track after a loss to JT in Week 6.
Geoff (2-4) hopes to pull the upset over Nick (5-1), but will have to do so without his best player, Aaron Rodgers, who is on bye. If not, we could be looking at Nick as a 6-1 team come this time next week.
Josh (3-3), back at full strength with Alvin Kamara back from bye and Tevin Coleman now handling the starting duties in Atlanta for the foreseeable future, will take on JT (2-4). JT will be vying for the upset with the help of his WR corps and the hope that Dalvin Cook stays sidelined for at least one more week so he can start Latavius Murray.
Of course, that’s not what Trevor (3-3) is hoping for. He needs Cook to return for a matchup with Samantha (2-4) who herself will likely be without Cooper Kupp who suffered an MCL sprain in Week 6. That being said, Samantha has the depth at WR to replace him especially with Kenny Golladay returning from his bye. But for Trevor, this may be the start of a new era. An owner that has struggled at RB, it’ll be interesting to see what a finally healthy and fully available platoon of Dalvin Cook and Mark Ingram can do to complement A.J. Green, Zach Ertz and Tyler Boyd.
Finally, Gray (3-2-1) gets a golden opportunity to advance to 4-2-1 with a matchup against Greco (1-5), his first of two games against the last-place team owner. For Gray, this matchup comes at a great time considering the news that Devonta Freeman will be placed on IR while Leonard Fournette is likely to miss yet another week. That’s because Greco, a team owner who has already struggled mightily, will be without three key players—Antonio Brown, Doug Baldwin and Chris Carson. That likely pushes Kenyan Drake, DeSean Jackson and Mohamed Sanu into starting duty, which are actually not terrible options. Greco desperately needs this win to get back into the hunt while Gray is hoping to push his advantage before the schedule turns tougher in Week 8.
But, hey! On the bright side, at least Gray doesn’t have to play Nick again.
And man, is that a really weird sentence to type…
