Week 8 Power Rankings

It’s about time Todd Gurley got his picture on the Power Rankings.

The first overall pick in this year’s draft has been nothing short of dominant this season. Through eight weeks, Gurley is averaging 25.3 ppg and has yet to score fewer than 19 points in a single week. Even more impressive, Gurley currently ranks as the 2nd overall player in fantasy, trailing only Patrick Mahomes by nine points. He ranks ahead of every other QB in the league. And to illustrate how much better Gurley has been than his peers, the next best RB (James Conner) doesn’t show up until 15th in the overall rankings.

Credit is due to Erik who selected Gurley first overall back in September. Sure, he had the first pick. But at the time, there was considerable debate over whether that choice should be Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson or Ezekiel Elliott. Clearly, Erik made the right choice as Gurley is currently averaging more points than Bell, Johnson and Elliott… COMBINED.

This week, Gurley led Erik to a victory with a ho-hum 27 points, just his fourth-highest point total of the season. For Erik, his 134 total points in Week 8 were nearly a career high, bested only by the 135 points he scored in Week 8 of 2014. Those are also the most points scored this season since Josh’s 137 points tallied in Week 1.

Now Erik becomes the fifth team owner to win a weekly prize this season, joining Brandon (3), Josh (2), Alex (1) and Samantha (1). It’s his second weekly prize since they were instituted last year, his first since Week 11 of 2017 and the fifth time in his career that he’s led a week in scoring. (Don’t forget to send a Venmo request to Alex for your $10!)

Of course, this week it wasn’t all Gurley for Erik. He also got significant contributions from Carson Wentz (21 points), Jordan Howard (14), Travis Kelce (13) and kicker Graham Gano (15). But perhaps the most notable production came courtesy of Marlon Mack (26 points). The Colts’ second-year back has now scored 20+ points in consecutive weeks and is one of the key reasons Erik now leads the league in RB scoring with 43.4 ppg. For reference, the record is 41.9 ppg set by eventual league runner-up Gray in 2011.

Though he is just 4-4, Erik is now within shouting distance of the top tier in the Power Rankings, as you’ll soon see. Despite the loss of Marshawn Lynch, the rise of Mack and the return of FitzMagic at just the right time (Carson Wentz is on bye in Week 9) means that Erik is a force to be reckoned with in the back half of the regular season. And with key matchups remaining against Nick, Alex and Jess, Gone Gurley and his team’s namesake will have a lot to say before it’s all said and done.

The Scoreboard

Gray has had a lot of luck this season. (See our discussion in another new blog post scheduled for Friday.) But this was not one of those weeks. After three consecutive weeks of undefeated play in which he scored 84 points or less, Gray scored 119 points in Week 8 only to lose, this time to Erik. I guess sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

As you’ll soon see when we get to the Playoff Picture, this was a crucial victory for Erik against a direct competitor, dropping Gray to 4-3-1 while lifting Erik to 4-4, just a half game back. While Gray remains in the driver seat with five games left to play, Erik currently holds the points tiebreaker between two teams likely to battle for one of six playoff spots. You might recall these two battled (along with Jess) for the fourth and final playoff spot last season, which ultimately went to Erik thanks to a narrow six-point margin in the tiebreaker.

In Week 8, Erik led all scorers with his season-best 134 points.

Alex got back in the win column this week, evening his record to 4-4, thanks to a 120-82 victory over Trevor who drops to 3-5. For Alex, it’s the sixth time this season he’s hit triple digits, which is tops in the league. As usual, The Colorado Kid (formerly Hey dARNOLD!) was led by James Conner who continues to star in the Steelers backfield while two of his players acquired in trade (Phillip Lindsay and DeAndre Hopkins) had great games as well.

Though, I’m technically barred from ever discussing the Patrick Mahomes trade ever again, one has to wonder whether or not seller’s remorse might be creeping in for Alex as Brees has averaged just 14.0 ppg since scoring 39 points in Week 3. Mahomes of course is the leading scorer in all of fantasy, averaging 24.8 ppg over that same time span. Granted, Alex turned Mahomes into what is now DeAndre Hopkins (WR3 on the season). But this will no doubt be a transaction that will figure into this year’s championship one way or another. Of course, now that I’ve said this, Brees will of course go off in Week 9 in an inviting matchup with the Rams.

Finally, just to put a pin in this game, Trevor saw his half of the Week 5 trade with Alex come up short as Mark Ingram and A.J. Green scored a combined 21 points compared to 36 for Lindsay and Hopkins. Now with five losses, Trevor’s team is desperate for the return of Dalvin Cook. If it doesn’t come in Week 9, Trevor will have to wait two weeks until the Vikings return from bye, if his team can stay afloat that long.

In a match-up of playoff hopefuls, Jess upset the formerly top-ranked Josh by a final score of 111-95 despite just six combined points from T.Y. Hilton and JuJu Smith-Schuster. That was thanks to the heroic performance of Adrian Peterson who has now run for 96 yards or more in five of seven games. With Chris Thompson hobbled, Peterson probably rates as a high-end RB2 or low-end RB1 the rest of the way. Pair him with a now healthy Joe Mixon and a disappointing but still productive David Johnson and you’ve got a recipe for playoff success.

And I don’t mean to toot my own horn, but I kinda called this back in Jess’s draft preview. Don’t take my word for it. Read it here below:

In each of the last four years, she's [Jess] drafted a RB outside the first round that ultimately finished as a top-10 player by VBD. In other words, she got a first-round talent after the first round and in many cases, much later. 

…

So who might we expect Jess to pick this year?

We can start by looking for similarities to the RBs she drafted in previous years with the ones that are available this year. In the cases of Bell, Freeman and Gordon, they were second-year players that broke out in a big way. This year, there are a plethora of second-year backs, but many of them are going in the first round by ADP (Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette come to mind). Sure, Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey might also fit the bill, but they are likely second-rounders. We're looking for deep cuts. So who fits the bill? Sophomore RBs going later in drafts include Joe Mixon, Chris Carson, Tarik Cohen, Jamaal Williams, Marlon Mack and Aaron Jones.

Meanwhile, in the cases of Martin and Ingram, both returned to Pro-Bowl form exactly three years after their first appearance. Who might that be this year? RBs with an outside shot at a starting role that last made the Pro-Bowl in 2015 include Latavius Murray and Adrian Peterson.

Honestly, almost all of these guys were good calls—Carson, Cohen, Mack, Jones, Murray and Peterson. The one exception seems to be Jamaal Williams. But Mixon and Peterson, specifically, were drafted by Jess in the 2nd and 9th rounds, respectively. As for finding “first-round talents,” Mixon is currently RB10 while Peterson is RB8. In other words, nailed it!

Josh for his part got seemingly respectable, though not spectacular, numbers from all positions with the exception of TE, where free agent acquisition Benjamin Watson posted a bagel one week after scoring 10 points. The TE position remains a wasteland in which Josh is currently mired, averaging just 3.4 ppg, which ranks 11th ahead of only Brandon who has still yet to have a TE score more than 4 points in a single game. Ultimately, 95 points is just not going to cut it most weeks in a year in which average scoring is way up—now 92.4 ppg. In fact, 95 points would be enough to beat just 53% of all scores so far this season.

Speaking of Brandon, he defeated JT by the narrow margin of 99-92, somehow surviving Jameis Winston’s 4-INT, 8-point game with 30 points from Deshaun Watson on his bench. Perhaps as a parting gift to Brandon, Will Fuller provided 18 crucial points before tearing his ACL on TNF. Au revoir, Fuller! But if there is an upside, it’s possible this injury sets up a WR lineup that includes Adam Thielen and Keke Coutee, fulfilling the prophesy of Brandon’s team name, In My Thielens, and the eponymous song’s signature lyric, “Keke, do you love me?”

Meanwhile, the loss drops JT to 2-6 in a very winnable game despite playing without Julio Jones and Keenan Allen who were both on bye. Even without those players, JT still could have won had he started O.J. Howard (12 points) in place of Jimmy Graham (2). No doubt these are the decisions which keep us up at night.

Geoff defeated Samantha 72-53, delivering a critical loss to the league’s newest team owner, who got no-shows from Emmanuel Sanders, Kenny Golladay, David Njoku and Isaiah Crowell. Even the Ravens D/ST went for -4 points. With the league’s toughest schedule remaining, she really could have used a win here against Geoff in Week 8. Meanwhile, this is Geoff’s third win scoring 83 points or less. For the season, he is averaging a league-low 72.5 ppg and has not hit the 90s since Week 3. Are you happy, Le’Veon Bell? Are you happy?!? Because Geoff’s team is a shell of itself. I sure hope your enjoying that jet ski.

Finally, Greco shocked the world this week when she halted a six-game losing streak, snapping Nick’s five-game win streak in the process. For Greco, it was her first game in which she’s scored more than 87 points this season. And she did it without any points from her defense as she started the Chargers D/ST, which were on bye. (Shame! Shame!) And I’ll admit, I did not see this one coming. Let’s go back to the tape. This is from the Week 6 Power Rankings:

Could Nick be (gasp!) 7-1 by Week 9? It’s not only possible. It’s likely. In fact, I’m calling my shot right now. By the time the Week 8 Power Rankings roll around, Nick will have extended his winning streak to six games and have a 7-1 record. Book it!

Okay, so I was wrong there. Nick loses to Greco by a score of 101-79 due in part to lackluster showings for Demaryius Thomas and Chris Godwin, plus a combined five points from his defense and kicker. And the schedule only gets tougher from here. In the next three weeks, Nick plays Erik, Josh and Brandon. It wouldn’t shock me if we were to blink and Nick is suddenly 6-5 entering Week 12.

But for Greco, we see some signs of life. The league’s only team owner to have never had a losing season will not go quietly into the night. She will not vanish without a fight! She’s going to live on. She’s going to survive! And if that day comes to pass, it’s going to be because of the play of Kenyan Drake and Chris Carson. Those two backs have averaged 13.8 ppg and 13.0 ppg over the last four games in which they’ve been healthy. If fourth-round pick Doug Baldwin can finally get going, not to mention second-round pick Rob Gronkowski who is averaging a measly 4.3 ppg since Week 2, Greco mathematically still has a shot at the playoffs.

The Power Rankings

Where have we seen this before?

Alex, Josh and Brandon have occupied the top three spots of the Power Rankings in some order for each of the last five weeks with each taking a turn at the top. This week, it’s Alex whose second-most points in Week 8 push him to the top of the rankings, two games ahead of Josh and Brandon who are tied for second. But no matter which team is on top, I think it’s safe to say at this point that all three have proven themselves to be elite, winning over 70% of true games, which is a feat that’s been accomplished by just four teams in league history. It remains to be seen if each of them can keep it up over the last five weeks.

But rapidly gaining ground on this top group is the aforementioned Erik. Another top-scoring week for him and really bad weeks for the trio ahead of him could theoretically lift him to the top spot. Ironically, both he along with Alex and Josh all have identical 4-4 records despite their standing among the league’s elite. Brandon, for his part, is 6-2, which is the record that we might expect Alex or Josh to have given their TW%.

In the middle tier, we’re starting to see some separation. Specifically, Jess and Nick are two teams with TW% above .500 who also have six or more wins on the season. Neither is as good as their record would suggest, but both rank comfortably within the top half of the league. Jess, specifically, is averaging 98.1 ppg, which ranks fourth.

Below those two we find our poor unfortunate souls—also known as JT, Samantha and Trevor. JT especially has had some terrible luck and is tied with Greco for a league-low 2 wins despite ranking 7th in this week’s Power Rankings. This week was his third loss with 92 points or more, which is tied with Alex and Josh for most in the league. If he wins those three games, he’s 5-3 instead of 2-6. Meanwhile, Trevor and Samantha swap spots in the Power Rankings.

As we enter the bottom tier, we may have a jailbreak on our hands as Gray is attempting to break out of the cellar, following 119 points in Week 8. That pushes his TW% to .364 and within striking distance of Samantha and Trevor in the ninth and eighth spots.

Finally, Greco is not the last-place team for the first time since Week 2. That dishonor belongs to Geoff who gets the win despite the second-fewest points this week. But the Power Rankings are not fooled and, as a result, he drops to 12th.

The Playoff Picture

Nick’s loss this week combined with Jess’s victory over Josh pushes her to the top of the standings in Week 8. Were the season to end today, both she at 6-1-1 and Brandon at 6-2 would be your division winners. Given their records and their standing within the top-6 of the Power Rankings, both rate as near locks to make the playoffs, which occurred in over 99% of 10,000 simulations this week.

Their biggest challengers for the division and that pivotal first-round bye are Nick and Josh, both with between a 15-17% chance of usurping the top spot. Of the two in the Legends Division, Jess actually has the easier schedule and, along with JT, the easiest possible schedule remaining in the league. Both have one game against a top-tier opponent (Jess has Brandon in Week 9, JT has Josh in Week 13) plus Erik, but then a remaining schedule that includes Trevor, Greco and Geoff. If Jess can win three of those five, that gets her to 9-3-1, which is probably good enough to take the division, especially given Nick’s third-toughest schedule remaining.

Trailing Nick and Jess by 2 and 2.5 half games, respectively, Alex is still very much in good shape to make the playoffs despite his 4-4 record. The computer gives him an 88% chance of making the playoffs and even a 4% chance of catching those two to win the division. It helps that he has a 65-point and 99-point lead in tiebreaker scoring, which means he just has to catch, not pass, them in the standings. His win this week saw the second biggest rise in playoff chances with an increase of 9.9%.

In the Leaders Division, the computer still thinks Josh has a good shot at catching Brandon despite the fact that they are tied in the Power Rankings and Brandon has a two-game lead in the standings. That’s because Brandon has a tougher overall schedule. Both have to play Nick, Samantha, Alex and Gray, but Brandon gets Jess (6-1-1) while Josh gets JT (2-6). Also at play is the fact that Josh currently leads the tiebreaker with 859 points scored compared to 844 for Brandon. Granted, Brandon could easily narrow that 15-point gap within the next 5 weeks.

Also capable of narrowing that gap is Erik, the team owner who saw the biggest increase in playoff chances this week, his odds jumping from 35% last week to 63% this week. That was thanks to an enormously important victory over Gray, the team owner with whom he is directly competing for that sixth and final playoff spot. That’s largely because Josh and Alex have a huge lead in tiebreaker scoring. Erik needs 76 points to catch Alex and 85 to catch Josh, which equates to outscoring them by 15-17 ppg over the next five weeks. That’s no easy task considering those two owners are currently averaging over 106 ppg. Maybe that changes to some degree if Alex loses James Conner to Le’Veon Bell’s return.

But if not, perhaps Erik’s best hope at the playoffs is going to be ousting Gray from the sixth and final playoff spot. And though Erik has the better team, Gray has a half-game lead in the standings, plus a far easier schedule. Specifically, Erik must play four of five remaining games against teams with a TW% above .500. Gray only has two such games. Still, as it stands now, the computer likes Erik to surpass Gray, giving him a 63% chance to make the playoffs compared to just 52% For Gray. Obviously, there are still more scenarios in which both make the playoffs at the expense of team owners like Nick, Josh or Alex.

Of the teams with losing records, Trevor (8%) and Samantha (4%) have the best shot of recovering to make the playoffs, despite the fact that JT (3%) is the higher rated team in the Power Rankings. Lastly, Geoff and Greco still have less than a 1% chance to make the playoffs. The biggest problem facing these team owners is not the wins. Trevor, Samantha and Geoff are just one game back of the final wildcard spot while JT and Greco are two games back with five games left to go. They can easily make that up. What’s more problematic is the points gap. Trevor, for example, needs 73 points to catch up to Erik. Without that tiebreaker, he would need still more wins to compensate. For Greco and Geoff, the points gap is even wider. Geoff would need an additional 39.2 ppg more than Erik over the next five weeks to catch up to him in tiebreaker scoring. His best chance is simply to win out and hope the others lose.

Looking Ahead to Week 9

The biggest matchup of Week 9 will be a contest between the two division leaders—Jess and Brandon, though it’ll hardly be a fair fight. Jess will be without both David Johnson and Joe Mixon at RB and T.Y. Hilton at WR, all of whom are out on bye.

Also facing off this week in matchups with playoff implications are Nick and Erik. Nick will be without Saquon Barkley and either of his Colts TEs (Eric Ebron or Jack Doyle) while Erik will be down Alshon Jeffery and Marlon Mack. Erik must keep winning to stay in the playoff hunt while Nick hopes to keep pace with Jess for the division lead.

Josh and Gray will compete in a game of two team owners hoping to stay above .500, another crucial matchup with playoff implications. Meanwhile, Alex will hope to take advantage of a matchup with Geoff who will have to once again endure the pain of James Conner piling up the points for another owner, but this time against his own Le’Veon-less squad. Finally, two team owners on the brink, each with six losses, in JT and Greco will attempt to get back on the winning track with games against Trevor and Samantha, respectively.

It’s November, which means we’re entering the home stretch. Every game is critical. So with that, good luck to all in Week 9. May your bye-week fill-ins play like Todd Gurley.