Week 13 Power Rankings
Happy holidays fantasy friends!
As the calendar turns to December and our homes are awash in the smell of sugar cookies and cedar, several team owners have awakened to find their stockings unexpectedly overflowing with coal. This week an additional four team owners were eliminated from playoff contention, joining Beth Ann who, herself, has already been marooned on the Island of Misfit Toys.
With two more team owners clinching their playoff spots this week, joining Erik and Gray, that leaves just three teams competing for two spots on Santa’s nice list.
So grab your wassail and light your Menorah, because it’s time for the final playoff push.
But FIRST! The Power Rankings…
Can Gray hold on? Gray leads the Power Rankings by two true games with one week to go.
Like the star perpetually atop your Christmas tree, Gray remains steadfast at the top of the Power Rankings for the eighth-straight week. In fact, Gray has held at least a share of the #1 ranking for 19 out of the last 25 weeks. That’s the kind of consistency that would impress even the Elf on the Shelf.
As for the rest, some minor movement up and down the ranks. It should be noted that Samantha (who was eliminated this week) still ranks within the top half of the Power Rankings. The reigning champ is the unluckiest team owner in the league this season with two “unlucky losses” compared to zero “lucky wins” for a net of two games. Flip those outcomes and she’s 7-6 with enough points to put her in the playoffs.
The last thing I’ll note is that the bottom is as good as it’s ever been. Yes, Geoff is currently in last place, but he’s got a respectable TW% of .385. If he can maintain that rate for the final week, that would be the highest TW% for a last-place team in league history.
Now away to the playoffs, let’s fly like a flash!
The playoffs are now a three-team race between Greco, Josh and Nick. Only two can survive.
The Locks:
Erik has clinched the #1 seed in the playoffs, the first of his career. Not only that, but he’s just the second team owner to go 11-2 through the first 13 games of the regular season, joining Gray (who accomplished the feat in 2011 and 2016). If he can win one more game, he would break the record for most wins in the regular season.
Despite his loss, Gray has essentially clinched the #2 seed. I say “essentially” because the only way he could lose it is if he lost and Alex won while outscoring him by 200 points. I mean, anything’s possible, but it’s not gonna happen. This would be just the second time Gray has earned a first-round bye since the playoffs expanded to six teams in 2018. The last time in 2019, it was also for the #2 seed and Gray won it all.
With his win over Jess, Alex clinched a spot in the playoffs. This is his seventh career playoff appearance, which is tied with Brandon and potentially Greco for second-most all time. I have to say, hats off to Alex for rebounding from the Week 2 loss of Nick Chubb who was the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft.
Finally, Brandon has essentially clinched his spot in the playoffs, joining Alex with seven career postseason appearances. Like Gray with his first-round bye, Brandon has not technically clinched. But he would need to lose and for Greco, Josh and Nick to all win with Nick outscoring him by 110 points. This ends a mini postseason drought for Brandon who has not appeared in the playoffs since 2020, which was tied for the longest current drought in the league.
That leaves two spots for three contenders—Greco, Josh and Nick.
For Greco and Josh, it’s win and they’re in. But if either loses, it opens the door for Nick if he can win.
The Contenders:
Greco has the best odds. Coming off her first weekly prize and best game of the season, Greco has a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Even better, she controls her own destiny. If she beats Samantha, she’s in.
And even if she loses, she can still sneak in if either Josh or Nick loses, assuming she can maintain her 70-point edge over Josh, which is a safe bet. That’s why she has an 82.2% chance of making the playoffs even with a loss. And if she can simply overtake Nick in points (she trails him by just 20.78), that would also clinch her spot in the playoffs regardless of any other outcome.
So if I’m Greco, I’m thinking I want to win or outscore Nick by about 21 points. That or root for Josh or Nick to lose.
Josh has the next-best chance—the computer says 57%. Like Greco, he controls his own destiny. Despite ranking last among the three contenders in points, if he wins, he’s in. The problem is he plays Erik in Week 14 who previously beat him by about 30 points in Week 3. Perhaps Josh is catching a little bit of a break in that James Conner is on bye and Isiah Pacheco may be nursing an injury. But Erik has outscored Josh in 10 out of 13 weeks so far this season.
If Josh can’t beat Erik, it’ll be hard to sneak past Greco. He’d have to hope she loses and outscore her by 70.78 points. Not likely. So, his only remaining path would be to hope that Nick loses to Jess. Unlike Greco, he can’t simply hope to outscore Nick because Nick leads him by about 90 points, which I would characterize as out of reach.
So if I’m Josh, I’m thinking I need to win or root for Jess to beat Nick.
Finally, Nick is our long shot. Although, his odds aren’t that much worse than Josh’s. The computer says he has a 53% chance. Basically a coin flip. Not bad all things considered. After his brutal Week 13 loss to Erik, his second “unlucky loss” of the season (though he does have two “lucky wins”), Nick now trails both Greco and Josh in wins. So even if he can beat Jess, he needs one of them to lose to force a tiebreaker. And even then, he would need to win that tiebreaker.
The good news is that he’s favored to beat Jess. After trading away Ja’Marr Chase (presumably in must-win mode with Justin Fields on bye) and losing Rhamondre Stevenson to injury, Nick is at less than 100% power. But so is Jess who is without Jonathan Taylor and has Terry McLaurin on bye. Plus, she’s an easier opponent based on TW% than either Greco or Josh will face.
And if it does come to a tiebreaker, Nick currently leads Greco (by 20.78 points) and Josh (by 91.56 points). If he can win and maintain his points edge, and one of them loses, he’s in.
So if I’m Nick, I know that I absolutely have to win, and then I’m rooting really hard for Erik to beat Josh. And if not that, then I need Samantha to beat Greco while not letting Greco pass me in points.
Finally, let’s pay our respects to the newly eliminated teams:
With the bye weeks conspiring against her, Samantha was eliminated following her loss to Chelsie. That being said, she was deserving of a playoff spot, and I chalk this one up to bad luck. This is just the second time in six seasons that she’s missed the playoffs. Here’s to not getting another double-digit draft pick in 2024.
After starting 3-1, Geoff took a nosedive, losing seven out of eight games in the middle portion of the season, the result of many an underperforming draft pick. Still Geoff never gave up, earning a league-high 41% of his points from the waiver wire, most notably C.J. Stroud and Zack Moss. A trade deadline deal for Ja’Marr Chase had him looking particularly feisty, but it was too little too late. He’s now off to the consolation ladder, breaking a streak of two consecutive playoff appearances.
Speaking of feisty, Chelsie played spoiler to reigning champ Samantha. But her sophomore season came up short of her dazzling debut in which she finished third. This year, her season was perhaps most defined by the Week 7 deal of Keenan Allen and Saquon Barkley for Patrick Mahomes. For those keeping track at home, Allen ultimately outscored Mahomes the rest of the way by about 35 points with Barkley chipping in an additional 92.
Lastly, Jess took one of the biggest gambles of the season, drafting Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor. Unfortunately, by the time both were healthy, Jess was 0-5. Though she made it interesting, fighting back to 4-6, it was just too big of a hole to climb out of. After making the playoffs in five out of seven years from 2014-2020, she now has the longest active playoff drought in the league, having missed three years in a row. There’s always next year!
Before we close, Geoff reminded me in the group text to bring up the Poop Bowl. Don’t forget that all eliminated teams will continue to duke it out in the consolation ladder in hopes of avoiding the league punishment, which is still TBD. So I guess it could be…anything? 😬
And if you want to avoid the Poop Bowl, a good strategy is to avoid a bottom-two seed. The way the consolation ladder works, all winners of the Week 15 games are safe except for the #11 and #12 seeds, which must win a Week 16 game to avoid the Poop Bowl. Currently those seeds belong to Jess and Beth Ann. But Chelsie and Geoff could easily replace either of those two team owners with a loss. All of which is to say that even if you’re eliminated, you want to keep fighting! Your wins matter too.
Alright, that’s it for Week 13. Only one more week left in the regular season. Let’s get it!
