Week 14 Power Rankings & Playoff Preview
1,078 days.
That’s how long it’s been since I last appeared in the fantasy playoffs. 1,078 days since I declared a “Bran-dynasty” and haven’t been back to the promised land since. And to me, it feels even longer. Cue the Titanic lady GIF.
Mercifully, that drought is over. So too is Greco’s, which also dates back to 2020. Now the longest current drought belongs to Jess who has missed the playoffs for a third-straight year. Considering that half the league makes the playoffs now, that’s a particularly bad run of luck in the playoff expansion era.
Of course, those are cat naps compared to the eternal slumber that was Nick’s seven-year run of playoff absences to start his career. From 2011 through 2017, Nick was the only team owner to never make the playoffs. It wasn’t until 2018, when the playoffs expanded to six teams, that Nick finally broke through.
But since then, Nick has been a force to be reckoned with, especially over the last three years. Since 2021, Nick has gone 26-22, averaging 121.8 ppg with a .582 TW%. That’s the most wins, third-most points and tied for the second-best TW% in the league over that time, trailing only Gray. Props. 👏
This year, he came up just short. After a 3-0 start, Nick stumbled, losing six of his next eight games following injuries to J.K. Dobbins, Justin Fields and Kyren Williams. But undaunted, Nick—the league’s eagle-eyed waiver wire hunter—led all scorers in points from free agency with 47.0 ppg. That included the additions of Kyren Wiliams, Tank Dell and Rashee Rice, some of this year’s most dazzling waiver wire wonders. Ultimately, his furious three-game finish came up one win (or 97 total points short) of the final playoff spot. Salute! 🫡
All of which is to say, it ain’t easy making the fantasy playoffs. So congrats are in order to Erik, Gray, Alex, Greco, Josh and…myself. And condolences to the rest who will fight it out to avoid the Poop Bowl. There’s always next year.
And in the meanwhile, there’s one more milestone on the radar…
Just 19 days until we crown a champion.
Before we preview the playoffs, let’s take one final look at the Power Rankings.
Gray holds off Brandon and Erik to finish first in the final Power Rankings of the season.
It wasn’t Gray’s best game of the season. In fact, it was among his worst. But it was enough to hold off Brandon and Erik, who themselves had bad days, to finish as the #1 team in the final Power Rankings. Some notes on this accomplishment for Gray:
Gray held the #1 ranking for nine straight weeks to end the season.
An incredible run, this is the 20th time in the last 26 weeks that Gray has held at least a share of the top spot.
This is the fourth time (2011, 2015, 2016 and now 2023) that Gray finished with the #1 ranking. No other team owner has done it more than twice.
As for the rest of the ranks, five of the top six teams in the final Power Rankings made the playoffs. The only one who didn’t? Nick who finished fourth. Among all non-playoff teams in league history, Nick’s team ranks 11th out of 92 teams. Not bad but not on the level of Brandon or Gray who finished 1-2 in last year’s Power Rankings and are the best two teams to ever miss the playoffs.
On the flip side, Josh is the clear interloper at the bottom of the rankings. After becoming the first team owner to finish first in the final Power Rankings but miss the playoffs in 2020, Josh has now snuck into the playoffs as a bottom-six team for the second year in a row. Luck has a funny way of working itself out.
Finally, Beth Ann and Geoff actually tied for this year’s worst team. But a TW% of .377 is not terrible. In fact, they are the best worst teams in league history, breaking the record set by Trevor in 2015 with a TW% of .336.
Alright, let’s turn our attention to the playoffs.
(1) Erik and (2) Gray have secured first-round byes. They will face the winners of (4) Greco vs. (5) Josh and (3) Alex vs. (6) Brandon.
As we do during the regular season, I’ve dropped these six teams into the computer and simulated the playoffs 10,000 times using their TW%. This is the result with the probability of each team advancing throughout the playoffs.
Gray is the favorite to win his third title with a 32% chance.
Let’s go through the contenders, starting with the long shots and moving to the favorites.
5. Josh: 4.7%
8-6, .429 TW%, 112.0 ppg
Make no mistake, Josh has been one of the luckier teams this season.
He’s ninth in our final Power Rankings, ninth in total points, eighth in receptions and below average in scoring at every single position except RB. Six weeks this season he finished in the bottom-three in the league in scoring while finishing in the top-three just twice. And if we look historically, Josh’s team this year ranks a dismal 60th out of all 64 former playoff teams in TW%. In short, not good.
But for the life of me, I can’t figure out why. All season long, I’ve felt like this team has vastly underperformed the talent on its roster. Thanks to a midseason trade of Patrick Mahomes (QB8), Josh picked up both Saquon Barkley (RB18)—who he later flipped for Rachaad White (RB4)—and Keenan Allen (WR3). And his current QB (Sam Howell) has actually scored more points this season than Mahomes. Shocking but true.
That means this roster has a top-10 QB and TE, two top-10 RBs, two top-15 WRs and currently Garrett Wilson (WR22) in the flex with the opportunity for Kenneth Walker to return at some point to Josh’s lineup during the playoffs. It’s a good team! It just hasn’t played like that this season.
But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Josh make a dark horse run to the championship game. Reminder that Josh has not been particularly successful in the playoffs. He’s just 2-8 in five career appearances. But maybe that just means he’s due.
In the first round, Josh will face Greco. He beat her back in Week 5. But for their careers, she has the upper hand. Josh is 6-8-1 against Greco all time. Also, notable is the fact that Josh is one of just two team owners in the playoffs this year without a championship. He’s definitely an underdog, but maybe this is the year he’ll finally break through.
3. Alex: 7.5%
9-5, .526 TW%, 117.2 ppg
After a disastrous season in which he went 2-12, Alex bounced back in a big way this year to claim the three seed, finishing just one win short of a first-round bye.
But I’d be lying if I said I saw this coming. In Week 2, Nick Chubb—the 14th overall pick—went down with a season-ending injury. Also lost for the season later in the year? Mark Andrews—Alex’s third-round pick. Not great.
But Alex never gave up. Sure, he’s had a couple of “lucky wins” that have boosted his record. (He’s the three seed in the playoffs but fifth in the Power Rankings.) But Alex has weathered the storm, twice putting together three-game winning streaks and has not scored fewer than 110 points since Week 9.
Though he spent his first two picks on RBs (Tony Pollard and Chubb), the strength of Alex’s team has ironically been at WR where he found a particularly good value in Mike Evans (WR9), drafted in the fifth round. Paired with perennially underrated WRs in Courtland Sutton (WR21) and Tyler Lockett (WR29), Alex ranks second in WR scoring among all playoff teams, trailing only Erik. And if he can get the kind of production out of Lamar Jackson and Isaiah Likely that he did last week, Alex can definitely make some noise.
That being said, he’ll be the underdog in his first round game against Brandon, the second-ranked team in the Power Rankings. Alex and Brandon have played each other a lot over the years, but they haven’t met in the playoffs since 2011—a narrow, four-point semifinal win for Brandon. Alex will look to exact some revenge this time and close the gap in their rivalry. All time, Alex is 10-14-1 against Brandon.
Coincidentally, the last time Alex was in the playoffs in 2021, he overcame a litany of injuries to make an unexpected run to the title game as the three seed. Perhaps, this year he can go all the way.
4. Greco: 9.3%
8-6, .513 TW%, 118.9 ppg
Without question, this is the hottest team entering the playoffs. 🔥🔥🔥
Sometimes it’s not about being the best but about being at your best when the moment is biggest. And Greco has been on fire these last few weeks. Following a four-game losing streak that saw her record dip to 5-6 and her playoff chances stall at just 9%, Greco ripped off a three-game winning streak. That culminated in two weekly prizes in a row to end the season.
In fact, over the last three weeks, Greco is 3-0, scoring 148.8 ppg with a scorching .909 TW%. That’s unreal. She has scored no fewer than 139 points in any of those three games. And key has been the play of Joe Mixon, Deebo Samuel and Michael Pittman who are averaging a combined 73.0 ppg as a trio. In the playoffs, I don’t see any reason why that shouldn’t continue. As a result, Greco is a real threat to advance.
Despite injuries to Kirk Cousins and Mike Williams earlier this season, Greco did her usual Greco thing, making just seven moves all season (tied for the second-fewest) and generating 93% of her scoring from the draft. And it worked. She ultimately found her way to the playoffs for the seventh time in her career, which is tied with Alex and Brandon for second-most in league history, trailing only Gray. What can I say? Death. Taxes. Greco in the playoffs.
Now that she’s here and firing on all cylinders, I see her or Josh as a real threat to Erik in the top half of the bracket. It’s been awhile since Greco was in the playoffs, but the last time she made it all the way to the title game as the six seed. In fact, her last two playoff appearances resulted in runner-up finishes. This time, she seems intent on sealing the deal.
6. Brandon: 16.8%
7-7, .623 TW%, 125.7 ppg
Don’t let the six seed fool you. This team is a real contender.
Yes, Gray was pretty much the wire-to-wire leader atop the Power Rankings, but all season long, he, Erik and Brandon competed for the top spot. That included four weeks in which Brandon held at least a share of the #1 ranking. And by season’s end, Brandon finished just two true wins short of Gray in his attempt to repeat as the Power Rankings leader.
The strength of this team is unmistakably at RB—Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs is a heckuva lineup. In points per game (because Barkley and Gibbs both missed some time), they are RB1, RB7 and RB8. Only Greased Lightnin’ can counter with a similarly fearsome backfield and only if Gray is willing to play Alvin Kamara with both Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. (Josh Jacobs is RB19 in points per game.)
It hasn’t been a simple path to get here. Brandon started 1-3 and didn’t get to .500 until Week 10 with three unlucky losses mixed in. He’s suffered season-ending injuries to both QBs (Anthony Richardson and now Justin Herbert at the precipice of the playoffs). And until Trey McBride’s breakout, Brandon was averaging just 3.8 ppg from TEs.
But with a league-leading three trades this season, Brandon turned Gabe Davis and George Pickens into Saquon Barkley and Christian Kirk into backup-turned-starter Kyler Murray. With Murray, three explosive RBs, McBride and two top-15 WRs (DJ Moore and Devonta Smith aren’t half bad), that’s a potential recipe for playoff success. I’ll be honest. I feel as good about this roster as almost any I’ve had entering the playoffs.
Which all just means it’s almost certain to go sideways. Brandon has one of the tougher roads in the playoffs. He’ll have to beat Alex then Gray and possibly Erik. But is an unprecedented fifth title on the horizon? One can dream.
1. Erik: 30.2%
11-3, .604 TW%, 124.6 ppg
If Brandon and Gray’s teams are mirror images this season, Erik just might be their kryptonite.
In the PPR era, there’s nothing scarier than a team with dominant WRs. And Erik’s are among the league’s best. With Tyreek Hill (WR1), A.J. Brown (WR4) and Zay Flowers (WR27 but with back-to-back 20-point games), it’s no surprise that Erik led the league in WR scoring with 52.1 ppg. That ranks third all time, trailing only Beth Ann’s championship team and Jess’ so-called Power Glove from 2020.
Thanks in large part to that trio, Erik had easily his best season ever by any metric. He had the most wins (11), most points (124.6 ppg) and highest TW% (.604) of his career. In fact, he came up just one win short of setting a new record for most regular season wins with 12. Still, if he can win the whole thing, he would become the first team owner to reach 13 wins in a single season. That’s how good Erik has been. We’re talking all-time numbers.
That being said, Erik is looking a little vulnerable entering the playoffs, especially at RB. With just seven moves made all season and only four RBs on his roster, injuries have hit particularly hard. Most notably, Isiah Pacheco and Aaron Jones both missed Week 14. That means Erik could be starting Gus Edwards (RB26) and James Conner (RB36) in the playoffs. Not ideal.
The good news is that, with the bye, Erik has a week for Pacheco and/or Jones to get healthy. And maybe the rest of the lineup is so good (Stafford has been excellent in relief of Erik’s drafted starter, Joe Burrow, not to mention the Cowboys D/ST) that maybe it won’t matter.
Lastly, I should note that Erik is the losing-est team in playoff history with just one win from the 2012 semifinals and five losses since. But this is a new season and a new Erik. And this Erik with a trio of top-flight receivers has a chance at history.
2. Gray: 31.5%
9-5, .636 TW%, 130.8 ppg
It’s systematic.
It’s hydromatic.
And when it comes to the playoffs, Gray is automatic.
Why, it’s Greased Lightnin’! ⚡️⚡️
Any respectable Worst League playoff preview starts and ends with Gray. We mentioned up top that he’s been the near wire-to-wire Power Rankings leader with nine-straight weeks at #1 and a season-high three weekly prizes. So it’s no wonder that, despite the two seed, he’s in pole position to take home his third title.
This season, Gray led the league in points (130.8) and TW% (.636). But he first grabbed our attention when Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane combined for 96.5 fantasy points in a Week 3 drubbing of the Broncos. But the low-key most impactful moment of his season was probably when Alvin Kamara returned from suspension in Week 4. Since then, he’s been rolling out a truly dominant trio of RBs—Mostert (RB2), Kamara (RB5) and Josh Jacobs (RB12). And that doesn’t include Achane who ranks as the RB4 in points per game.
As we noted in Brandon’s preview, Gray has the only group of RBs that can rival Brandon’s. But unlike Brandon, Gray’s got some other pieces too. Like Josh Allen (QB1). That guy’s pretty good. And oh, yeah Stefon Diggs (WR6). And don’t forget about George Kittle (TE4). Yeah, this team is stacked.
In fact, Gray’s is the only roster that is entering the playoffs with a top-12 player at every single position. Literally, the worst player in his lineup is 11th-round pick Nico Collins (excellent draft by the way) who is WR12 and suddenly in a position to vacuum up all the targets in Houston with Tank Dell’s season-ending injury. Heck, even the Browns D/ST and Justin Tucker are elite.
Having the #2 team in the Power Rankings on his half of the playoff bracket is certainly not ideal, but there’s no doubt that Gray should be the favorite to win it all. In 10,000 simulations, he came out on top the most, approximately 31.5% of the time. Yes, I’m wishing you all the jinx, Gray. 😜
Did you think I forgot about the Poop Bowl?
I haven’t. (Though, there’s still the matter of Jess making good on her punishment from last season and deciding what this year’s punishment will be.) For a full description of how the consolation ladder works, check out the 2021 season preview, which has all the details on the consolation ladder.
Here’s what you need to know. If Chelsie, Nick, Samantha or Geoff win this week, they will safely remove themselves from Poop Bowl contention. But the two losers will duke it out with Beth Ann and Jess in Week 16 to determine which two teams will play in the Poop Bowl. Lose that game and the punishment is yours.
Good luck to everyone in the weeks ahead! The Hall of Champions awaits its newest member.
