Three Champs and an Erik
Sometimes, it’s just not your year.
Ask Alex whose second-round pick suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2. Or Jess who never recovered from the early-season absences of Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor. Or Beth Ann who lucked into the first overall pick and drafted…Justin Jefferson (currently WR45).
But what if it’s never your year?
Josh lost this week in the first round of the playoffs for the fourth time in six career playoff appearances. It’s not just that he got bounced. It’s that he scored a dismal 66.48 points. Not only was that the fewest points he’s scored all season, it’s the fewest points in the playoffs in the PPR era, breaking his own record set just last year. That’s bad timing for a bad day.
The loss brings Josh’s career playoff record to 2-9. That’s the most playoff losses for any team owner in league history. Among active team owners, only Erik has a worse win percentage in the playoffs (and he still has a chance to improve that record this year with a win in the next two weeks). Oof. 😣
That being said, to have the league record for most playoff losses, you have to be in a lot of playoff games. And it’s a testament to Josh’s success over the years that he’s able to claim this record for futility. In fact, in 10 seasons, Josh has proven himself to be one of the most consistently successful team owners in the league. Since he joined the league, he ranks third in regular season wins and total points scored, and he’s third in career TW% (.543). Only Gray and Brandon have been better.
All of which makes it more surprising that he’s never been able to break through in the playoffs. With his best accomplishment being a runner-up finish in 2019, Josh will retain his ignominious title of “the best to never win it” for at least one more year.
But like Babe Ruth who retired as the career strikeouts leader, Michael Jordan who missed 26 game-winning shots, or Michael Scott who famously said that Wayne Gretzky said that you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take, all these failures are just a stepping stone to the inevitable success. It will happen. It has to.
But for Josh, just not this year.
Recapping Round 1
(4) Greco and (6) Brandon advanced to the semifinals with wins over (5) Josh and (3) Alex.
In the first quarterfinal game, Greco easily took down Josh in what was a relatively low-scoring game. As the hottest team entering the playoffs with three straight games of 139+ points, Greco managed just 109 against Josh. But that was more than enough as Josh scored a season-low 66.48 points. Most pivotal, losing Keenan Allen turned out to be a big blow, forcing Odell Beckham Jr. (2.4 points) into Josh’s lineup for the first time this season. I know there are a million what-ifs in fantasy football, but Josh had the win buried on his bench. If he had started Jared Goff over Sam Howell, Kenneth Walker over Garrett Wilson, and the Chiefs D/ST over the Chargers D/ST, he would have had more than enough points for the win. But that’s fantasy.
As for the other first round matchup, Brandon kept his career mark in the playoffs against Alex perfect, defeating him in a rout. After all Brandon’s whining about the Raiders D/ST and their 25 points on Thursday night, the Dolphins D/ST almost matched them with 22 points, themselves. And then there’s the matter of Christian McCaffrey whose 41.7 points were most evidently the difference in the game. The third overall pick in this year’s draft led Brandon to a career playoff day and the fourth-highest playoff score in league history. (The record still belongs to Beth Ann with 163.82 points in the 2021 championship game.) As for Alex, he put up a solid 118.94 points (above this year’s league average of 116.8 points), but just did not have the firepower to keep up. His career playoff record drops to 5-7.
Previewing the Semifinals
The semifinals will feature (2) Erik vs. (4) Greco and (2) Gray vs. (6) Brandon.
The semifinals are set and they will feature the three winningest playoff teams in league history…and Erik.
What a crew! Brandon, Gray and Greco have combined for 29 career playoff wins and seven titles. That’s almost half of all playoff wins in league history and over half of all Worst League championships. 🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆
But one of these is not like the others as Erik’s career playoff record is 1-5, the worst playoff win percentage of any active team owner in the league. In fact, his only playoff win came against JT in the 2012 consolation game. Since then, he’s 0 for his last 4. 💀💀💀💀
Of course, the playoffs are a time to wipe the slate clean.
(1) Erik vs. (4) Greco
These two have met before. In fact, Erik and Greco’s very first playoff matchup was against each other way back in 2012. They met in the semifinals with Greco coming out on top 192-113 (in a two-week matchup), which eventually led to her first and only championship.
This year, Erik has clearly had the more dominant team with a career 11 regular season wins and still a chance to set the all-time league record with 13 if he can win it all. But to do that, he’ll have to go through Greco first. Luckily, the first-round playoff bye came just in time as Erik needed Week 15 to get healthy. It’s early in the week, but both Tyreek Hill and Isiah Pacheco appear as if they will be suiting up in Week 16. And he’ll need them as Greco has a dangerous team capable of big weeks.
For their careers, they are fairly even matched. Greco is 8-7 against Erik all time with a 1-0 record in the playoffs. Though, previously this season, Erik won their only matchup in Week 11 by a score of 107.94-92.46.
(2) Gray vs. (6) Brandon
Alright enough with the undercard. This is the MAIN EVENT!
It’s Manning versus Brady. Bird versus Magic. Zoolander versus Hansel.
(Yes, I’m totally Zoolander in this analogy.)
These are the two winningest members of the league, the only two team owners with over 100 career victories and the league leaders in career TW%. Not only that, but they lead the league in playoff appearances, playoff wins and titles. In fact, Brandon and Gray collectively own six of the league’s 12 championships. And because of this matchup, we’re guaranteed that at least one of them will play for another.
Even better, these two have history with three previous playoff matchups. Let’s recount them!
1. 2011 Finals
Gray: 217 | Brandon: 240 👑
In the league’s first year, these were the two best teams by wins, points and TW%. But Gray’s was definitely a cut above. In fact, Gray ripped off one of the most dominant stretches in league history, winning what would have been four straight weekly prizes to start the year and six of the first eight. If we had Power Rankings back then, he would have led them from start to finish—all 13 weeks—the only time that’s ever happened. But in the playoffs, it was Brandon that came out on top thanks to 11th-round pick Rob Gronkowski and a late-season trade for undrafted Victor Cruz. The win (which occurred over the span of two weeks) gave the league and Brandon his first championship.
2. 2016 Semifinals
Gray: 185 | Brandon: 190 👑
Worst League historians (read: me) are unanimous that this was the greatest upset in league history. If you thought Gray’s 2011 team was good, this team is what I call the GOAT. In 2016, Gray went 11-2 with a .808 TW% that still ranks as the best in league history. (By comparison, Gray finished first in this year’s Power Rankings with a TW% of just .636.) His opponent in the first round of the playoffs? A very lucky Brandon who finished ninth in that year’s Power Rankings with what is still (literally!) the worst team of his career. His TW% of .427 ranks as the fifth-worst among 64 playoff teams in league history. The difference in their TW% makes it statistically the greatest mismatch in playoff history.
And yet, Brandon exploded out of the gates in Week 14 thanks in part to the unlikely performance of the Chiefs’ fifth-round rookie and waiver wire wonder Tyreek Hill who scored two TDs, including one on a punt return. Leading by 50 points after the first week, Brandon narrowly held off a hard-charging Gray in Week 15 to win by five. Brandon would go on to lose in the championship game to Geoff by two points. Of course, Gray would obviously outscore them both in the consolation game.
3. 2019 Semifinals
👑 Gray: 118 | Brandon: 106
Revenge is a dish best served cold! Gray finally picked up his first playoff win over Brandon in their third career matchup. In the last year of pre-PPR scoring, these were two pretty evenly matched teams. They ranked second and third in wins, points and TW% in the final Power Rankings with Brandon narrowly leading in points and Gray with the slight edge in TW%. But this time it was Gray who inserted an unheralded rookie WR into his lineup—some guy named A.J. Brown plucked off of waivers—en route to a victory, thwarting Christian McCaffrey’s spectacular 2019 season for Brandon. (Since this is one of the more modern matchups, you can read more about it here.) Ultimately, the win would catapult Gray to the title game where he would upset Josh to claim his second championship.
This year, there’s more on the line than a trip to the 2023 finals.
It’s bragging rights. For their careers, Brandon holds the 10-7 edge, including a 2-1 record in the playoffs. However, Gray defeated Brandon in their only previous meeting this season—a narrow, four-point win in which both teams topped 140 points. Gray is unquestionably the better regular season player with more wins, more points scored and a higher TW%. But Brandon has four championships to Gray’s two. A win for Brandon would give him a chance at five. Whereas a win for Gray would even their playoff series and bring him one step closer to a third title. Who will come out on top? The league historians can’t wait to find out.
Given the outcome of the first round and the resulting matchups, let’s open up the magical spreadsheet once again and simulate the rest of the playoffs 10,000 times.
Gray remains the favorite to win it all but is it’s fairly even between Erik, Brandon and hismelf.
Given the strength of his team, Gray still leads with a championship in 29.4% of all simulations. But Erik (28.5%) is not far behind. Nor is Brandon (26.6%). Those three have the greatest odds to win the title. But don’t discount Greco with a not-insignificant 15.5%.
As for the semifinal matchups, Erik is the clear favorite with a 60% chance to beat Greco. Though it should be noted that ESPN’s Fantasy Cast sees it differently, favoring Greco. Meanwhile, Gray vs. Brandon is a true coin flip whether you look at our model or ESPN’s.
Poop Bowl Update
Lastly, let’s take a look at the consolation ladder.
Nick and Samantha are safe from the Poop Bowl! 😅
Big wins for Nick and Samantha have removed them from Poop Bowl contention. Ironically, Nick’s 170.18 points were decimals short of the most points scored by any team this season. Nothing says fantasy football like your team going off as soon as you’ve been eliminated from the playoffs. 🤷♂️
That leaves four teams vying for the Poop Bowl—Jess, Chelsie, Beth Ann and Geoff. In the first Poop Bowl semifinal, Jess will take on Chelsie with Beth Ann facing Geoff. The losers of those two games will play in the Poop Bowl. Good luck! 😬
Finally, if you’ve been eliminated from the playoffs or Poop Bowl contention, please refrain from making any more add/drops. That means no more moves for Josh, Alex, Samantha or Nick. Everyone else is fair game as you still have stuff to fight for.
That’s it for Week 15. Good luck to everyone, and we’ll see you at Christmas!
