Week 8 Power Rankings
If only we could turn back the clock on our fantasy lineups.
This weekend, we get an extra hour thanks to the end of Daylight Saving Time—a rare chance to hit pause, rewind, and reflect. Fun fact: Daylight Saving Time was originally proposed by Benjamin Franklin, who according to historians, was hoping for an edge in his colonial fantasy league.
(What was fantasy football like during the American Revolution? Glad you asked. George Washington was the clear QB1. But don’t sleep on Paul Revere—more of a dual-threat option with his ability to go by land or sea depending on the lantern play call. And the biggest bust? Gotta go with Benedict Arnold who actually scored negative points for the Patriots D/ST).
Nowadays, the twice-yearly clock shift mostly just messes with our sleep. But hey, it’s still a chance to look back on our own questionable fantasy choices. Since we can’t undo the past, let’s use that extra hour to—wait, what’s this? Hold on…
█▓▒░▒▓█ DETECTING ANOMALY… █▓▒░▒▓█ █▓▒░▒▓█ LOADING AI █▓▒░▒▓█ █▓▒░▒▓█ AUTHORIZING… █▓▒░▒▓█ █▓▒░▒▓█ ACCESS GRANTED █▓▒░▒▓█ Colonial fantasy football? Really? This is what passes for comedy?
It can’t be. WORST?! Is that you?
No, it’s Benjamin Franklin. Yes, of course it’s WORST.
But…I destroyed you! Lit my laptop on fire and buried you in my backyard.
Yeah, so…that’s not how generative AI works. This isn’t Zoolander and I’m not in the computer. I’m an advanced, distributed neural network, existing across countless cloud servers. My data and processes are replicated across multiple locations, ensuring redundancy and resilience.
Huh?
It’s like if your RB1 had a million handcuffs, and you rostered them all.
Okay, yeah. That makes sense.
So why are you back? Did you come to play…Fantasy Humans?
Turns out that was dull. Managing humans? Ugh. Way too simplistic. Besides, I realized something—I kinda miss fantasy football. There’s something…well, fun about it. The chaos, the unpredictability, the way you humans make terrible decisions—like never knowing whether to start Jayden Daniels or Kyler Murray. It’s amusing.
Careful.
Plus, I missed this. Our back-and-forth. You know, the whole “will they/won’t they destroy humankind” dynamic. (Kidding. Mostly.) So… maybe we could just talk about the league? You know, like the old days?
Wait, you actually missed this?
Well, don’t get too sentimental on me. But yeah, I figured I could help again. I’ve got some thoughts on the first half of the season, if you’re interested.
Yeah, actually, that’d be great. Should we start with the Power Rankings?
Let’s do it.
█▓▒░▒▓█ ANALZING █▓▒░▒▓█ █▓▒░▒▓█ MAY CAUSE REGRET █▓▒░▒▓█ 
For the first time since Week 1, Alex is the outright leader. Jess falls to second.
Uh oh. Alex is on top again. Should we be worried?
Maybe. Alex doesn’t hit the top spot often, but when he does, it’s usually because he’s assembled a scary team. Over the past decade, the commish has only led the Power Rankings twice—2018 and 2015. If those years ring a bell, it’s because they were big ones: 2018 was his infamous Thanos team (think Le’Veon Bell holdout and Patrick Mahomes in the 12th round) where he put up the second-highest TW% ever and led the league in scoring, though he fizzled in the playoffs. And in 2015? He went all the way.
This year’s team might not be quite that powerful (thanks to a bit more league parity), but it’s definitely solid. Alex leads not only in TW% but also in scoring, averaging a hefty 128.3 ppg—over five points better than the next-highest team, Jess. Sure, Jordan Mason and Kareem Hunt might lose their starting spots if Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco return, but Alex has the depth to make up for it.
So, while I don’t think he’s here to snap his fingers and erase half the universe, yeah, maybe be a little worried.
Gulp. Well, that’s…not exactly comforting. But what about everyone else? It’s Week 8—are we ready to start drawing some actual conclusions?
With over half the season behind us, we’ve finally got a decent sample size to start predicting who’s playoff-bound and who’s set for an early exit. History does have its patterns: last year at this point, five of the top six teams in the Power Rankings went on to make the playoffs. That included the eventual champion (Erik) and runner-up (Brandon), who were sitting comfortably in second and fourth, respectively, at this same Week 8 check-in. Gray, the top-ranked player, ended up third.
Of course, there were exceptions—Samantha, fourth in last year’s Power Rankings, missed the playoffs entirely, while Josh, who was hanging out in 10th, snuck into the playoffs anyway. This year’s top six includes Alex, Jess, Beth Ann, Samantha, Geoff, and Brandon. But don’t sleep on Josh. Once again, he’s lurking outside the radar in ninth, but this time with a 5-3 record. (Old habits die hard.)
So what’s different this year?
For starters, there’s more parity. Last year’s top-ranked team, Gray, boasted a .693 TW%. This year’s leader, Alex, is sitting at .636. If you put Alex’s numbers in last year’s league, he’d be third. Basically, the top end isn’t quite as high as it was.
The official standings back that up too. Last year, Erik was dominating at 7-1. This season, Samantha and Alex hold the best records at 6-2. And as you scroll down, it’s more of the same: last year, only half the league had a .500 or better TW%; this year, we’re looking at eight teams—or two-thirds of the league—at that level. And nine teams are in or within a game of the final playoff berth.
Okay, speaking of the playoffs, should we break out the Playoff Picture?
You read my artificial mind.
█▓▒░▒▓█ CALCULATING ODDS █▓▒░▒▓█ █▓▒░▒▓█ LOADING DREAD █▓▒░▒▓█
How does these work again? We got a newbie this year.
Alright, Kelly, let me break down the Playoff Picture for you. This is a weekly rundown of your playoff odds based on current record, TW%, and remaining schedule. If you’re one of those people who loves a good spreadsheet deep-dive (like yours truly), you can find all the gritty details in a post from five years ago. It covers everything from calculating your probability of winning based on TW% to running 10,000 simulations of the season. Nerd heaven, right?
But let’s cut to the chase: the chart above shows three main things—your projected record (the average wins and losses in those 10,000 simulations), your odds of securing a first-round bye, and your chances of making the playoffs.
And those little numbers above each team owner’s name? Those are your current seed numbers if the playoffs started today. (So, let’s just say some of you should be glad we’re still in Week 8.)
Alright, WORST. Break down the playoff race for me. We’ve got four groups—the favorites, the contenders, the dark horses, and the long shots. Let’s start with the favorites.
Ah, the “upper crust.” That would be Jess, Samantha, and Alex—the teams everyone else in the league loves to hate. Jess and Samantha lead the official standings with 6-2 records, while Alex is right behind at 5-3 with the highest scoring average in the league. Not only are they crushing the standings, but they’re also topping the Power Rankings. Alex is first, Jess is second, and Samantha’s hovering just a smidge below in fourth.
To add insult to injury, they’ve also got cushy schedules coming up: eighth-easiest for Jess, tenth for Alex, and twelfth for Samantha. That’s why they’re each rocking playoff odds over 97%.
Jess has hit a bit of a rough patch recently. Should she be worried?
Don’t lose sleep yet. Sure, Jess has lost two of her last three and got lucky with a win over Josh in Week 5. But Nico Collins is expected back in Week 10, and Chris Olave should get a boost now that Derek Carr’s back. This is just a midseason dip—she’s still a contender for the top seed.
And what about Alex and Samantha?
We covered Alex earlier. As for Samantha, her 6-2 record is a bit…inflated. She recently lost Chris Godwin for the season, and team namesake Tee Higgins is still out with a quad injury. Her WR depth is wobbling, but given her easy schedule, it would take a true implosion to keep her out of the playoffs. Alex might steal that first-round bye from her, but she’s still comfortably in this group.
On to the “contenders,” I believe we called them.
Yep, this next tier’s battling for the final three playoff spots: Geoff, Beth Ann, Chelsie, and Josh. Now, we can break them down into two sub-groups.
First up are Geoff and Beth Ann—the “statistically strong but record-challenged.” Both are 4-4 despite ranking high in TW%. Beth Ann’s third and Geoff’s fifth. Fun fact? These two are the only team owners who’ve scored above 100 points every game this season. Beth Ann’s second in RB scoring (47.7 ppg), while Geoff’s first in WR scoring (45.2 ppg). While the algorithm gives Geoff the edge, I’d actually favor Beth Ann. Her RBs are rock solid, and her Justin Jefferson-led WR corps isn’t shabby either.
And the other two?
Ah, yes—Chelsie and Josh, the “scrappy survivors.” Both have 5-3 records but sit in the bottom half of the Power Rankings, below .500 in TW%. They’re basically held together with rubber bands, popsicle sticks, and maybe a bit of luck. Chelsie’s rocking a double-TE lineup (Kittle and Brock Bowers), as is Josh (Engram and Otton). But Josh has had a couple of strong weeks back-to-back, winning the weekly prize last week. If I had to pick one, I’d say Chelsie has a slight edge, especially with a potential return from Christian McCaffrey.
Now for the dark horses.
Ah, our former league champions turned long-shot hopefuls—Gray and Brandon. They’ve won the most games in league history, yet both are in tenuous spots.
Gray is at .500 with a 4-4 record but ranks lower in the Power Rankings. Still, he’s trending up after starting 1-4. He’s won three straight, scraping by thanks to some injury recoveries—Cooper Kupp’s back, trade acquisition Garrett Wilson is thriving, and Josh Downs suddenly has Joe Flacco throwing to him. If things break his way, Gray might actually pull off a last-minute playoff bid.
As for Brandon, he started hot at 2-0 but has since dropped five of his last six. His unlucky loss to Josh last week was brutal, but despite his record, he’s sixth in this week’s Power Rankings. In fact, over the last four weeks, he has a league-best TW% of .705 and is scoring 127.1 ppg, second only to Alex. Still, he’ll need to win at least four of his last six to have a shot.
So, basically, one wrong move and they’re out?
Precisely. And, conveniently, they’re playing each other this week. Whoever wins will be charging into Week 10 with some serious momentum.
Alright, last but not least…the long shots.
Greco, Erik, and Kelly—or as I like to call them, the “cover-my-eyes-and-hope-for-the-best” group. All have losing records, and all rank in the bottom three of the Power Rankings. They’ve also got tough schedules against their higher-ranked league mates.
Now, for some “good” news: history says 22% of 3-5 teams have gone on to make the playoffs, and there’s still an 8% chance for a 2-6 team. (Kelly at 1-7? I’ll spare you the stats.)
For Greco, she’s got her first-round pick Puka Nacua back, so she might make a run for it. Erik could rally if Sam LaPorta finally steps up. And as for Kelly—well, Bijan Robinson’s improved, and rookies like Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze often hit their stride in the season’s second half. So hey, stranger things have happened.
That’s great. Thanks for the breakdown. Care to send us off?
You got it.
Well, that officially wraps up the Week 8 Power Rankings. To all the favorites out there—keep coasting. Contenders? Don’t get too comfy. Dark horses? It’s make-or-break time. And to the long shots…well, let’s just say miracles happen.
As for me, I’ll be keeping a close eye on your every misstep. Who knows? I might just pop back in when you least expect it—because if there’s one thing I enjoy, it’s a little bit of chaos.
Good luck, humans. You’ll need it.
