Draft Observations — The Worst League

Sep 8

Sep 8 Draft Observations

Can you believe the summer is over?

With Labor Day behind us, the NFL preseason has come to a close and the fantasy season is suddenly upon us. With our draft coming a little earlier this year, I’m opening up my notebook and sharing some of my observations. Speaking of which, let’s take a look…

Somewhere on this paper is the makings of a championship team.

She’s a beaut, ain’t she?

Somewhere on that page is our next fantasy champion. Or at least the building blocks for one. Remember, the draft is just the start. But it’s an important step on the way to fantasy glory.

First, let’s start with the facts. Here are some quick numbers on the players drafted at each position compared to the Worst League historical averages.

19 QBs (-1.7)
59 RBs (-3.3)
73 WRs (+7.1)
17 TEs (-0.9)
12 D/STs (-0.8)
12 Ks (-0.5)

It’s a historical year for the WRs. Breaking the record of 70 WRs from 2018, this is the most WRs we’ve ever seen drafted in a single year. Another way to put it, WRs accounted for 38% or nearly two in every five players drafted. That’s the most players from one position group in league history, which is probably a combination of the shift to PPR scoring and the league’s tendency toward pass-first offenses.

As for the other position groups, all saw modest dips to account for the increase at WR. A few more RBs remained undrafted relative to the historical average (though 59 is the exact number of RBs drafted last year). About half the league drafted backups at QB and TE. And no one picked up a backup defense or kicker. Thank goodness.

One other thing to take a look at before we dive into the individual numbers is where players went relative to their ADP (average draft position). As a reminder, this is a statistic found over at ESPN, which tracks where players are going on average on their site. On the morning of our draft, I pulled the ADP for every player and compared it to where they went in our draft, which you’ll see throughout this writeup.

As a general point of observation, here’s how we compare as a group to the plebes in the millions of other leagues on ESPN:

QB: -1.2
RB: +12.5
WR: +7.0
TE: +1.2

As you can see, we tended to wait a little more on QB, but reached a half round on WRs and more than a full round on RBs. Note: we’re excluding defenses and kickers and looking exclusively at the first 10 rounds since the numbers get a little wonky after that, which has to do with varying league sizes, scoring settings and roster constructions.

Okay, let’s get to it. Let’s empty the notebook with observations for each team owner, starting with the team owner at the top of the draft and working our way to the back.

1. Alex

You gotta risk it to get the biscuit.

With the first pick in the draft, Alex surprised many by passing on Jonathan Taylor, the safer option and the player with the highest ADP (average draft position) on ESPN, for Christian McCaffrey. That makes this the third straight year McCaffrey has gone #1 overall.

Unfortunately, it didn’t work out so well for the last two guys to do it. In 2020, Nick lost McCaffrey in Week 2, and as a result, he suffered through the worst season in Worst League history, going 1-12. The next year, Nick drafted McCaffrey again only for him to get injured in Week 3. This time, he salvaged his season by trading McCaffrey to Gray. But Gray wasn’t so lucky, finishing eighth in the final Power Rankings—the second-worst year of his career.

So maybe third time’s the charm. When healthy, McCaffrey is in a tier unto himself. But if McCaffrey does miss time, Alex’s depth will be tested. In fact, Alex waited the longest to select his second RB, waiting until the 72nd pick to draft Chase Edmonds. He along with (also oft-injured) Rashaad Penny, Melvin Gordon, J.D. McKissic and Chuba Hubbard make up the rest of the RBs on the roster.

But perhaps I’m being too pessimistic. The pass-catchers are strong—Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Courtland Sutton and George Kittle, not to mention trendy sleeper Wan’dale Robinson. And Russell Wilson has QB1 potential, even if he is the third Bronco on this roster. (Lucky is the team owner who gets to play Alex in Week 9 when the Broncos are on bye; it’s Nick.)

Ultimately, Alex has dealt with more injuries than most in recent years, including Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb last season. He even lost the #1 pick in 2017, David Johnson, to a Week 1 injury. So you’d think if anybody would be chastened by health concerns, it’d be Alex. But maybe, finally, Alex gets a cleaner bill of health. He’s due, right? Either way, gotta admire the guts to go for it.

2. Jess

It’s deja vu all over again.

Alex’s decision to draft Christian McCaffrey means Jess was reunited with Jonathan Taylor, her second-round pick from last year. Not only that, but she also grabbed Deebo Samuel in the second. Both fell in the draft relative to their ADP and Jess happily scooped them up. Samuel, in particular, fell 8.1 spots from his draft-day ADP of 14.9 to the 23rd pick, easily the biggest value of the first two rounds.

Jess also did what Jess does, which is wait on QB, opting instead to stock up on RBs and WRs. For the third time in the last four years, she was the last team owner to draft a QB. This time, it wasn’t as dramatic, picking Matthew Stafford in the ninth round. (Previously, she’s waited until the 13th and even 16th round to draft one.) But as a result, she found other values, including Miles Sanders 13.0 spots below his ADP in the eighth.

Say what you will about Sanders or Cordarrelle Patterson (a reach in the seventh), but Jess has four starting RBs (based on NFL depth charts) on the roster in Taylor, Sanders, Patterson and rookie Breece Hall. No other team owner has more. For such an injury-prone position, that kind of depth at RB will certainly come in handy. Pair that with Samuel and Michael Pittman, plus Dalton Schultz at TE, and you can see why Jess has ESPN’s projected #1 team.

Jess is the early favorite to win it all this season based on ESPN projectiosn.

So how accurate are these predictions? Hard to say. But last year’s favorite—Samantha—finished third in the final Power Rankings with the best season of her career. And coincidentally, the teams projected second and third were Nick and Beth Ann—the two team owners who dominated the league last season with Beth Ann obviously winning it all. In fact, the top-five ALL made the playoffs. But don’t despair if you’re not in that group. Last year’s predicted last-place finisher was Alex. And he ended up in the championship game.

3. Gray

For a second there, I thought Gray was going full zero RB.

For the uninitiated, zero RB is a drafting strategy that zigs where others zag. Because RBs are the most likely to get injured and therefore the most volatile position group, the strategy suggests loading up on WRs or an elite TE early in your draft and then targeting RBs who could eventually become starters in the sixth round or later. It’s risky. But there’s some fascinating (okay, mildly interesting) research that shows zero RB teams are less likely to make the playoffs but more likely to win it all if they do it make there.

Gray didn’t wait until the sixth round to draft a RB—the traditional definition for zero RB—but he came close, selecting Elijah Mitchell with the third-to-last pick of the fourth round, 46th overall. That’s the longest a team has waited to draft a RB in five years. In fact, in league history, I could only find three teams out of 144 that went zero RB. Two of them were pretty bad. But even though Erik waited until the 70th pick to select his first RB in 2017, he actually had the best year of his career, finishing third in the final Power Rankings with a TW% of .622. So maybe Gray’s can too.

As for the picks themselves, Gray nabbed three elite pass-catchers in Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. (Zero RB has its perks.) Then spent the rest of the draft chasing RBs, including six of his next nine picks. And many of them were “reaches,” drafting guys two, three, or in some cases, four rounds ahead of their ADP. Case in point, here’s a list of the top 10 players drafted ahead of their ADP:

Note that three of these guys belong to Gray (and a fourth, Elijah Mitchell, was #14 if we extended the list). Most notable is Dameon Pierce, the sleeper of all preseason sleepers. Pierce, a fourth-round rookie, rocketed up draft boards after seemingly securing the job in Houston. But still, his ADP was 100.0 the morning of the draft (though even higher now). Selecting him in the fifth round is unquestionably early. But obviously, Gray felt there was a chance Pierce wouldn’t make it back to him at 70, so he had to pull the trigger at 51.

If Gray can get a couple of these RBs to pop, not to mention sexy, second-year QB Trey Lance, then Gray could be zagging his way back to the playoffs for a fourth-straight year.

4. Geoff

They say you can judge a team by the quality of the player in its flex.

Okay, nobody says that. But I’m saying it. And, as it stands right now, I think Geoff may have the best flex player in the league. Here’s the list, so you can judge for yourself:

Alex: Chase Edmonds
Jess: Michael Thomas
Gray: Damien Harris
Geoff: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Josh: Devin Singletary
Greco: Gabe Davis
Erik: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Brandon: Christian Kirk
Nick: Rashod Bateman
Chelsie: Jaylen Waddle
Samantha: Chris Godwin
Beth Ann: Jerry Jeudy

In my mind, it’s between Geoff, Greco, Chelsie and Samantha. At least for me, Brown, Davis, Waddle and Godwin are the highest on my board. It depends on roster construction, but if I’m picking from that list of players, I think I take Amon-Ra St. Brown first. And I think the ESPN projections agree, which is maybe why Geoff is top three in its projections.

And best of all, Geoff got the biggest non-QB value in the draft, selecting J.K. Dobbins with the 69th pick, approximately 15.3 spots below his ADP. Dobbins has obviously fallen because of a concern over his recovery from a torn ACL in training camp last season, but if he does return to form for Baltimore’s potent rushing attack, then Geoff could be in great shape with Austin Ekeler, James Conner and Dobbins at RB, plus CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf and Amon-Ra St. Brown at WR. That’s a solid roster.

Finally, the last thing to note about Geoff. As is tradition, he was the first team owner to draft a defense, selecting the Bills D/ST in the 10th round. This is now the fourth year in a row that Geoff has been the first team owner to do so.

5. Josh

Is this the team that will return Josh to the playoffs and finally take him to the promised land?

I guess it depends on how you feel about Javonte Williams and Cam Akers. Selected in the second and third round of this year’s draft, Williams and Akers are two talented, young RBs who find themselves in committees of sorts. Williams came on strong at the end of last season, but still finds himself splitting backfield duties with Melvin Gordon in Denver. And Akers is just one year removed from a torn Achilles. They’re both tantalizing prospects with immense talent. But will the opportunity be there?

If so, this team could be great. Justin Jefferson and Lamar Jackson are both explosive options. And Josh has reunited with Darnell Mooney after a promising end to his sophomore season. With Allen Robinson now gone to Los Angeles, Mooney will be the top receiving option in Chicago. Plus, Hunter Renfrow and Devin Singletary are nice options in the flex. And don’t think I didn’t notice the decision to draft James Cook as well, locking down the backfield in Buffalo. Kudos.

Honestly, I don’t have a whole lot more to say about this roster other than that I predict it will be pretty good. And if Javonte Williams and Cam Akers produce the kind of year they’re capable of, it could be great.

6. Greco

Selecting Ja’Marr Chase with the sixth overall pick, Greco drafted a WR with her first pick for the sixth time in the last seven years. It’s kind of her thing at this point.

And I think this one may have the talent to go the distance. There’s a lot to like. Nick Chubb (+9.0 vs. ADP) and Mike Williams (+15.1) were both slight reaches. But David Montgomery helmed Beth Ann’s championship squad last season and Greco got him a full round later. Add in trendy breakout candidate Gabe Davis plus draft-day value Josh Jacobs (taken a full round below his ADP) and you’ve got a potential recipe for fantasy success.

Then at QB, don’t forget about Tom Brady who at 45 years old has now been drafted a record 12 times in Worst League history. Yes, that means Brady has been drafted every single season since the league was adopted. He’s gone as high as sixth overall to Brandon in 2012 and as low as 114th to Erik in 2019, his last year in New England. This year, he goes 78th overall to Greco, the eighth QB off the board. Brady remains one of only three players in Worst League history to have been drafted every single season. The other two? Aaron Rodgers and (thanks to Alex’s 13th round selection) Julio Jones.

7. Erik

A year after waiting until the eighth round to grab his second RB, Erik wasted no time this year, going RB-RB with his first two picks, selecting Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon. And if that second part sounds familiar, it’s because Erik picked Mixon in this exact same spot with the 18th pick last year. Hey, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Last year, Mixon returned top-10 value in the second round.

And while last year’s WRs—Amari Cooper, Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay and Laviska Shenault—all busted, I’m more hopeful for this year’s crop. Tee Higgins and Marquise Brown are solid. I like Chris Olave as a rookie sleeper. And Michael Gallup all the way back in the 11th could be a steal when he returns from injury.

Speaking of steals, Erik snatched Aaron Rodgers, last year’s NFL MVP, in the 10th round as a backup to Justin Herbert. With 19 QBs taken in this year’s draft, Rodgers, the 13th QB taken, is officially the best available backup in the league. That’s either a really great insurance policy for Erik or potential trade bait later in the season. Remember, last year, Alex turned Matthew Stafford into Leonard Fournette. And that was by trading to the guy who had Patrick Mahomes. So anything is possible.

Lastly, the best part of Erik’s draft? His commitment to a team name. Wanting to go with “Too Many Cooks,” Erik realized he needed one more “Cook” on the roster to make it official. So he drafted free agent TE Jared Cook, who is not even on an NFL roster right now, just to make the team name work. Now that’s excellence.

If you haven’t changed your team name to something new this year, make sure you do so before the game’s kick off later this week. And for motivation, here’s a closer look at some of the new team names and cover images in the league this year.

8. Brandon

Spending two of his first four picks on a QB and a TE was not the plan.

But that’s fantasy, isn’t it? And Brandon’s season quickly deviated from that plan. It started with Derrick Henry, who fell to him at eight, which felt a little like kismet. Or at least unfinished business. Aaron Jones was on Brandon’s last two championship teams. So why not? But Mark Andrews and Josh Allen? Too good not to take, I guess. In fact, here’s a look at the best values of this year’s draft, the top 10 players drafted below their ADP:

After Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen was the biggest value in the draft, falling almost a round-and-a-half from the start of the third in most drafts to the middle of the fourth. And then Mark Andrews, last year’s TE1, fell nearly one round from the end of the second to the middle of the third. As I said, both were too good to pass up and the reigning points leaders at their respective positions.

But of course, that means Brandon was behind the eight ball when it came to WRs. In fact, he was the last team owner to draft a WR, waiting until the fifth round to take JuJu Smith-Schuster with the 56th pick. It’s the longest a team has ever waited in the PPR era to take a WR. And only Terryn in 2017 waited longer, drafting Pierre Garcon with the 66th pick. (Note: she did not make the playoffs that year.)

That probably explains why Brandon spent seven consecutive picks on WR, alternating between safer, more proven commodities like Adam Thielen, Christian Kirk and Robert Woods with high-upside rookies like Drake London, George Pickens and Romeo Doubs. Pickens, in particular, was a big reach in the ninth round. But like Gray with Dameon Pierce, you’ve gotta get your guys when you can.

Ultimately, Brandon’s season may turn on how many of those lottery pick WRs hit. If he can get three of those seven to be serviceable, then he may be able to plan for a return to the playoffs.

9. Nick

Probably the biggest surprise of the first round was Saquon Barkley going ninth overall.

In his four previous seasons, Barkley has never not gone in the first round. So I guess it’s not that surprising. But like McCaffrey, Barkley is coming off two straight injury-plagued seasons. Two years ago, Barkley tore his ACL in Week 2, missing the rest of the season. Then last year, he suffered an ankle sprain in Week 5 that caused him to miss significant time. And when he did return, he was solid if not spectacular down the stretch with just one game of more than 15 points.

As a result, he slipped down draft boards. The morning of the draft, his ADP was 27.9, which is early in the third round. When Nick took him at nine, it was 18.9 spots ahead of his ADP, which was the biggest reach of the first three rounds. He was taken ahead of Najee Harris, Alvin Kamara, D’Andre Swift, Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Javonte Williams, and James Conner—all players who were going on average before Barkley in ESPN drafts.

And Barkley wasn’t the only one. Nick’s draft is full of trendy breakout candidates and sleepers going multiple rounds ahead of their ADP. Guys like Travis Etienne (+15.0 vs. ADP), Allen Robinson (+19.5), Rashod Bateman (+24.9), Skyy Moore (+33.2) and Rachaad White (+58.0) were all picked within the first 10 rounds but went one to four rounds ahead of ADP. In fact, if we look at Nick’s first 10 picks, we see that he reached an average of 18.0 spots (or a round-and-a-half) to get his guys. That’s second-highest in the league only to Gray (who consistently reached on RBs throughout the draft).

But after last season, I’m not doubting Nick anymore. This guy’s either an oracle or Biff from Back to the Future Part II with a sports almanac from the future. Plus, you gotta get your guys when you can. And Barkley certainly has RB1 potential. If he ends up as one of the top RBs at the end of the season, the fact that Nick got him at nine will seem, if anything, like a steal.

10. Chelsie

Loved having Chelsie as part of the draft.

For those who didn’t join the Zoom, it was great to reconnect and chat. In addition to catching up, we learned that Chelsie exercised great patience in waiting until the second round to draft her beau, Patrick Mahomes. The first QB taken in this year’s draft, Mahomes was drafted 17.0 spots ahead of his ADP, but likely wouldn’t have returned to Chelsie in the third round. So if she really wanted him, she had to take him there.

AJ Dillon was a big reach in the fifth, going 42.7 spots ahead of his ADP, the biggest non-Dameon Pierce reach of the first eight rounds. But like Pierce, there’s a lot of buzz around Dillon and his new role in the Davante Adams-less offense in Green Bay. And perhaps that reach for Dillon was balanced by the acquisition of Jaylen Waddle in the sixth round. Selected 14.4 spots below his ADP, Waddle was the second-best non-QB value in the draft. Among non-QBs, only J.K. Dobbins slipped more. But unlike Dobbins, there are no injury concerns surrounding Waddle who must now contend with Tyreek Hill for playing time.

Still, having Waddle to pair with A.J. Brown and Diontae Johnson, plus Najee Harris, AJ Dillon and Patrick Mahomes is a heckuva draft. While there’s technically only one starting RB on this roster, I love Kareem Hunt and Michael Carter in the eighth and ninth rounds. And don’t forget about DeAndre Hopkins in the 10th who will return to the lineup after a six-game suspension to start the season. That should provide some serious WR depth.

Ultimately, the key piece will be that RB2. And if Dillon can return his draft-day value, then Chelsie will be off to a fantastic start in her debut season.

11. Samantha

Samantha may have bemoaned having to pick late in the draft, but it might be the rest of the league who is suffering as a result.

The silver lining of having to draft near the end is the ability to grab an elite RB and top-flight WR, and Samantha did both. With the 11th pick, Samantha drafted Alvin Kamara (one spot before Beth Ann could have reunited with her beloved Saint, no less). Kamara initially fell down draft boards after worries of an impending suspension due to an incident during the Pro Bowl, but has since risen back up those same draft boards after reports from Adam Schefter that it’s “more and more unlikely” a Kamara suspension happens this season. If he’s not suspended, Kamara could be a steal at 11.

Then with the 14th pick, Samantha selected Davante Adams, last year’s WR2 who trailed only Cooper Kupp in points. The first WR selected outside of the top tier of Kupp, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, Adams is now in Las Vegas where he has reunited with his college teammate Derek Carr. He’s no Rodgers, but there’s every expectation Adams should remain elite.

Those two should provide for a balanced scoring effort that will also include relative value selections in DJ Moore and Ezekiel Elliott (Samantha’s #1 pick from last season who is now a fourth-rounder). Plus, don’t forget about Chris Godwin, a sixth-round pick who was only available this late because he suffered a torn ACL in Week 15 last year. But reports are Godwin may return sooner than later and was already seen practicing without a knee brace.

I like the depth on this roster as well. There are a lot of sleepers to like in Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney and Christian Watson, not to mention Alexander Mattison who will certainly become relevant at some point this season.

Finally, the most interesting pick may have been Jalen Hurts who was the fifth QB off the board, taken one spot ahead of Kyler Murray despite the fact that Murray is going ahead of Hurts in most drafts. But it’s a little pick-your-poison as both running QBs have shown an ability to be effective. Hurts most recently knocked Samantha out of last year’s playoffs. This time, she hopes to be on the other end of that equation.

12. Beth Ann

Last but not least we come to our reigning champ, Beth Ann.

Drafting from the back for the first time in her career, Beth Ann pounced on two top-tier RBs, drafting D’Andre Swift and Leonard Fournette, both top-10 RBs by ESPN’s ADP. Then at the next turn, she methodically added two top-20 WRs, Brandin Cooks and Terry McLaurin. Though Cooks was taken a round-and-half ahead of his ADP, both are proven commodities. And finally, she drafted Kyler Murray and Jerry Jeudy with her next two picks, both values relative to their ADP, especially Jeudy (-7.4 vs. ADP) who now has an improved QB in Russell Wilson. Those six should form the core of her team. It’s a solid group.

Also, let’s not forget that last season she essentially won a championship with her first seven picks. Most notably, that seventh pick was Ja’Marr Chase. This year, it’s Tony Pollard who could certainly have a breakout season if anything happens to Ezekiel Elliott. But perhaps the more Chase-like figure on this roster is Garrett Wilson, the second WR taken in this year’s NFL draft with a similar pedigree to Chase. Like Chase, he enters a crowded receiving room but with potential to play his way into the top spot.

One last little fun tidbit from Beth Ann’s draft. She was one of only four team owners to back up her TE (not counting Erik’s “extra” Cook), but the first to do so, selecting Pat Freiermuth and Hunter Henry with back-to-back picks in the eighth and ninth rounds. So if things go sideways and you’re looking to deal for a TE later this season, Beth Ann’s your gal.

Finally, let’s remember that no one relies on the draft more than Beth Ann. Whereas other team owners might tinker at the margins, Beth Ann’s roster on draft day tends to be more of a final product. Which makes me wonder…is there a championship roster here? We’ll find out soon enough.

Good Luck in Week 1!

That’s it for the draft preview. Like I did last year, I’m going to rework how I do things this year, hopefully streamlining these in future weeks, getting them out earlier but with less rambling. This year, I’m thinking of forcing myself to maybe one paragraph per team owner in the weekly Power Rankings. Honestly, it’s too much work even for me. But sometimes I can’t help myself. We’ll see how it goes. 🫠

Lastly, I teased a new “Survey Says” in this week’s edition. Because what do I know? So I figured I’d ask the league who had the best draft and see if the wisdom of the crowd could pick out this year’s champion. Well, five of you responded. Here are the results:

Samantha: 2 votes
Nick: 2 votes*
Brandon: 1 vote

Honestly, I don’t know how scientific this poll was because so few responded. And Nick’s tally has an asterisk because he voted for himself. When pressed that he had to vote for someone else, he said, “I wouldn’t. I would rather not play.”

Gotta love that. 🥰