Week 1 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Sep 15

Sep 15 Week 1 Power Rankings

We’re all so hopeful after the draft.

Our first-round picks are like shiny toys still fresh in their packaging. Our sleepers are brimming with limitless potential. Our record is pristine. And then Week 1 happens. Even for those of us lucky enough to start the season 1-0, not everything goes according to plan. There are injuries. Busted picks. Even underwhelming superstars. The biggest thing is not to overreact too much to one week. To breathe. To remember, there’s still a lot of season ahead. At least, that’s what I’m telling myself…

Scoreboard

Let’s start with a look at the Week 1 scoreboard.

Chelsie led all scorers with 148.3 points in her Week 1 debut.

Well, hello there, Chelsie. In case anyone thought our league’s newest member was going to be a push over, think again. Chelsie led all scorers in Week 1, defeating last year’s juggernaut, Nick, who scored a healthy number of points, himself. Joining her in victory were Beth Ann and Jess who both had big games, beating Alex and Greco, respectively. Gray overcame a nasty injury to Elijah Mitchell to defeat Geoff. Erik easily dispatched Brandon. And finally, Josh won a Monday night nail-biter over Samantha in which he successfully threaded the needle with a big game for Javonte Williams, but not so big that the Broncos beat his Seahawks.

Before we get to our Power Rankings, here’s a quick explainer for Chelsie on what they are and how we come up with them:

Every week, we’ll post our Power Rankings here based on a metric we invented called True Winning Percentage (or TW%). In short, TW% is the percentage of games your team would have won if it had played every team, every week. So in a 12-team league, rather than go 0-1 or 1-0 in a given week, TW% imagines you played all 11 other team owners. You could go 9-2 or 6-5 or 3-8. Maybe you lost, but you had the second-highest score in the league that week. (We’ve all been there.) The truth is your team’s strength is really 10-1, not 0-1.

TW% is much more nuanced and gives a fuller picture of your team’s performance relative to the league. Because wins alone as a metric is just so damn binary. Yes, you won or lost and that’s reflected in the actual standings. But it doesn’t really tell us how good your team is. That’s what TW% is for. As a result, you’ll see TW% featured in a lot of our analysis. It’s the basis for the weekly Power Rankings and the bedrock for things like playoff odds, which will come later in the season. If you understand nothing else, understand that.

Alright. Let’s get to it.

Power Rankings

1. Chelsie

Now that’s how you make an introduction. Despite drafting from the 10th spot, Chelsie led all scorers with 148.3 points, the most ever in a Worst League debut. Granted many Worst Leaguers made their starts before PPR scoring. But her pre-PPR score of 112 points would have bested all but those of Gray (133), Brandon (127) and Josh (119). She’s also the first team owner since Gray to start her career atop the Power Rankings. Not bad.

Despite waiting until the 58th pick to draft a second RB (only Alex waited longer), Chelsie had three RBs finish in the top 15 in Week 1, including two on her bench (Kareem Hunt, Michael Carter). Most notable, however, was the performance of AJ Dillon whose 20.1 points, along with another A.J. (Brown, 25.5 points), powered her to victory. Najee Harris seems to have dodged a bullet with an early foot injury and should play in Week 2. That’s a good sign. So is the fact that only twice in 11 years has the team who started on top of the Power Rankings failed to make the playoffs. Sheesh, Chelsie. Take it easy on us. 😥

2. Beth Ann

The reigning champion has not missed a beat. Just like last year, it was a balanced effort with all but Beth Ann’s kicker and defense registering double-digit points. In fact, she was the only team owner to finish in the top half of the league in scoring at all four major skill positions (QB, RB, WR and TE.) And though he was the last pick of the first round, D’Andre Swift lived up to his last name, quickly finishing third at the position in Week 1.

This is now the 11th straight week Beth Ann has ranked within the top two of the Power Rankings. And like those who start at the very top, it’s good to be #2. Yes, Erik missed the playoffs from this spot last year, but he was the first team owner to do so in 11 years with all 10 of the previous team owners making the playoffs, including three former champions. Could we be in for deja vu?

3. Jess

In a week in which all the star WRs went off, would you have guessed that a WR corps that included Deebo Samuel, Michael Pittman and Michael Thomas finished as the highest-scoring position group in the league? Me either. But their 62.4 points led all others, even scoring more points than Erik’s WRs and Geoff’s WRs combined. Michael Thomas, in particular, was a revelation. The late sixth-round pick finished as WR8 in Week 1, scoring 22.7 points, which is the most he’s scored in a Worst League game since Week 5 of 2019.

But it wasn’t just the WRs. So much went right for this team in Week 1. Jonathan Taylor (27.5 points) proved why he was deserving of the #1 pick despite slipping to #2. Miles Sanders (18.5 points) was also solid. But don’t forget about Cordarrelle Patterson (22.6 points) who finished as a top-five RB on Jess’ bench. With only 8.8 points from her QB, kicker and defense, Jess’s total points scored is deceiving. It could have been a lot more. Yes, Jess is back.

4. Gray

What a horror show for Gray in Week 1!

Trey Lance (9.96 points) face-planted in the mud at Soldier Field with some Niners fans, including Joe Montana, already calling for Jimmy G.
Elijah Mitchell (4.1 points) sprained his MCL and is expected to be out eight weeks, the most significant injury of Week 1.
Super sleeper Dameon Pierce (4.9 points), who a RB-needy Gray took 49.0 spots ahead of his ADP, disappointed, only playing 28% of the total snaps.

And yet…

He scored 127.86 points. Wut? HOW?! Oh yeah, that guy Cooper Kupp is pretty good at football. Tyreek Hill too. And Travis Kelce. Those three rockstars plus Antonio Gibson (the one pleasant surprise on Gray’s roster from Week 1) accounted for 75% of his total scoring. Most notably, they tallied an eye-popping 37 receptions, the most by a mile in a league that typically averages around 24.1 receptions since we switched to PPR scoring. Like I said in the chat, this is the most fascinating team in the league based on its roster construction. And I’m excited to see where Gray can take it, especially given the early adversity. So far he’s off to a good (if stress-inducing) start.

5. Erik

From a dominant receiver group to one of the most anemic, Erik proved there’s more than one way to skin a cat. Or a Bengal for that matter. Totaling just 19.0 points from WRs in Week 1, the fewest in the league, Erik was also plagued by some poor injury luck, including an early concussion for Tee Higgins who scored just 4.7 points before exiting in the second quarter.

Luckily, Erik’s RBs more than made up for it. One of only two owners to start three RBs in Week 1, Erik led all team owners with 57.7 points from RBs. First- and second-round picks Dalvin Cook (13.8 points) and Joe Mixon (21.5 points) played well. But it was seventh-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire (22.4 points) who surprised, finishing as RB6 for the week. In fact, it was Edwards-Helaire’s most points ever in a Worst League game. Now Erik will have a chance to start 2-0 for the first time since 2017, which just so happens to be the best year of his career. Until possibly this year, that is…

6. Nick

Nick’s team played well, finishing in the top half of the league in scoring. Unfortunately, he went up against the buzz saw that was Chelsie. But there is a really great silver lining to this week’s results—Saquon Barkley is awesome again. Remember, Barkley was easily the biggest reach of the first three rounds, going 18.9 spots ahead of his ADP. (Perhaps we shouldn’t have been so surprised Nick reached for him given his fond memories of drafting Barkley sixth overall in his stellar rookie season.) But after finishing as RB1 in Week 1 with 33.4 points (more than any player not named Justin Jefferson or Patrick Mahomes), Barkley might prove to have been the shrewdest pick in the draft. If we redraft today, I don’t think he slips past the first two or three picks.

Of course, not everything was sunshine and rainbows for Nick. Fourth- and fifth-round picks Travis Etienne (8.5 points with only 26.7% of the carries) and Allen Robinson (2.2 points on just two targets) were two of the bigger Week 1 disappointments, though Robinson’s subpar debut for the Rams did lead to two of my favorite memes from Week 1.

7. Josh

There’s two ways to look at this roster—glass half full or Cam Akers.

Like Robinson, Akers was a major disappointment on Thursday night. The presumed starter, Akers played just 18% of the snaps, scoring 0.0 points. The third-round pick is now suddenly unstartable, giving me intense flashbacks to Brandon Aiyuk last season. Eventually, Aiyuk proved kinda useful. So maybe Akers will too. Remember, he’s still barely a year removed from a torn Achilles, so maybe they ramp him up.

As for the good, holy Justin Jefferson! The Vikings let the big dog eat, and Jefferson, the fifth overall pick, scored a league-high 39.4 points in Week 1. Both he and Javonte Williams (19.8 points on 11 receptions) scored just enough points to help Josh squeak by Samantha on Monday night. Though he starts out in the bottom half of the Power Rankings, Josh is 1-0, which is all that counts.

8. Samantha

Samantha lost another close one. Stop me if you’ve heard that one before. Remember, last season Samantha had four losses of five points or less—most in the league. This one was by a little bit more (5.7), but it still hurts. Especially since she swapped out the Steelers D/ST (22.0 points) for the Titans D/ST (8.0 points) just hours before kickoff, which (ducks) I might have been consulted on. 😬

But Don’t Worry Kamarling, there’s reason for optimism. Second-round pick Davante Adams (30.1 points) led all players in targets in Week 1 with 17, as Derek Carr only has eyes for his college buddy. Jalen Hurts (24.72 points) was also great, finishing the week as QB4, validating Samantha’s selection of Hurts ahead of Kyler Murray, Tom Brady, Joe Burrow and others. And you gotta think Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott will rebound after combining for just 13.5 points in Week 1, the fewest by a team’s RBs in the league. And if not…James Robinson (19.9 points) looks like a suitable alternative on the bench. Oh yeah, hurry back Chris Godwin!

9. Brandon

In Week 1, both a Titans and Packers RB finished in the top-10 in RB scoring. Unfortunately, neither of those backs were Derrick Henry or Aaron Jones as both were vultured by their backups. In fact, Henry and Jones weren’t the only ones shut out of the end zone. Brandon didn’t get a single TD from a non-QB—the only team owner to suffer such a fate.

Given that TDs are a little flukey, I’m going to chock this one up to dumb luck. Henry and Jones also had bad Week 1s last year (in which they combined for even fewer points) before both exploding for 40+ in Week 2. I still ranked tied for seventh in receptions in Week 1 despite waiting the longest on WR. And seventh-round pick Christian Kirk looks great and was top-10 in targets. Even without all that, throw just a few touchdowns my way and I’m back in the top half of the league in scoring.

right? Right? RIGHT?! 😰

10. Alex

Well, that’s not the Christian McCaffrey we all expected. After passing on Jonathan Taylor to draft McCaffrey with the first overall pick (I swear I’ll shut up about it at some point), McCaffrey totaled just 15.7 points and just 14 touches with fewer targets than guys like Rex Burkhead, Nyheim Hines and Zack Moss. But Alex is choosing to be optimistic. As he said, “love how high the CMC floor is.” He’s not wrong.

The real story is the unrelenting string of injuries that have plagued Alex in recent years. Remember, last year Alex overcame a 2-5 start that included injuries to Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Gus Edwards and Jerry Jeudy. This year, he’s already down George Kittle (who injured his groin in practice prior to Week 1) and Keenan Allen (hamstring). With both expected to miss Week 2, that’s going to make a win against Chelsie (the current Power Rankings leader) a tough proposition. But if anyone can do it, it’s the comeback kid.

11. Greco

The good news? Ja’Marr Chase (28.9 points) and Gabe Davis (18.8 points) looked great. The bad news? You still need seven other players to fill out your fantasy roster. Joking. But several of Greco’s players didn’t seem to get the memo that the NFL season has officially begun. Most notably, third-round pick Mike Williams totaled just 3.0 points in a smash spot. With Keenan Allen sidelined due to a hamstring injury, Williams still only managed two receptions for 10 yards on four targets. And he wasn’t the only one. David Montgomery (8.0 points) disappointed in Chicago. As did Tom Brady (10.38 points).

But again, it’s just Week 1. And there’s plenty of reason to believe Greco’s squad will bounce back. The Chargers HAVE to feed Williams the ball with Allen out, right? Montgomery should be better when he’s not playing in a monsoon. And Allen Lazard will return from injury soon, and God knows the Packers need receivers. I’m not even close to panicking yet. Let’s see how Week 2 goes.

12. Geoff

Okay, that’s a rough Week 1.

With just 80.06 points scored, Geoff totaled the fewest number of points in a Week 1 game in the PPR era. And if we compare to pre-PPR standards, his score would have been just 49 points. We’re used to seeing scores that low later in the season when injuries and bye weeks have cropped up. But Week 1? That’s the lowest Week 1 score since…2014. In fact, only Greco in 2014 had a lower Week 1 score, just 47 points en route to statistically the second-worst year of her career by TW%. (Though somehow, she made the playoffs anyway that year and finished third. Fantasy be crazy, right?)

Worst of all, Geoff suffered one of the worst injuries of Week 1 when he lost Dak Prescott (4.46 points) to a fractured right thumb, which could cost him a significant portion of the season, though Dr. Jerry Jones is more optimistic. But this injury news is compounded for Geoff when you consider he was stacking Cowboys with CeeDee Lamb (4.9 points) at WR. Now it’ll be Cooper Rush throwing Lamb passes. Not great. Still, it’s early. Amon-Ra St. Brown (20.4 points) and rookie Jahan Dotson (18.0 points on the bench) were great, not to mention Rex Burkhead (12.0 points, also on the bench) might be a thing.

And if that doesn’t make you feel better, remember, it could always be worse. Check out this poor sap’s Week 1.

Looking Ahead to Week 2

As luck would have it, all the winners of Week 1 face off against all the Week 1 losers. That means this time next week we could have 12 1-1 teams, and all be back to square one. So good luck out there. The fun (and the pain) has only just begun.