Finals Firsts for Samantha and Nick
Sometimes, it’s the little things.
In last week’s semifinal preview, we broke down every facet of the Chelsie/Nick matchup. It was a battle of strength vs. strength—her high-flying WRs vs. his dynamic RBs. We compared the QBs. We explored their relative weaknesses. We even pondered the TEs. But the one thing we did not consider were the lowly defenses. I mean, it’s defense. Yes, there’s some science to it, but it’s almost as random as kickers. Who cares?!
Ironically, there was a line or two about defense in last week’s preview. We expressed skepticism about Nick’s decision to rely on all those Jaguars, including the Jaguars D/ST in addition to Travis Etienne and Evan Engram in a frigid game in East Rutherford, NJ. (He later dropped the Jaguars D/ST hours before their Thursday night game.) And then, we noted this:
“With the Jaguars playing on Thursday night and Chelsie with at least four starters playing Sunday or Monday, the narrative is sure to be whether Nick can hold on. And it might all come down to the Chargers D/ST on Monday night.”
Yes, in fact, it did all come down to the Chargers D/ST on Monday night. But not in the way we expected. When we wrote that, the Chargers D/ST were on Chelsie’s team. But they ended up…on Nick’s team. Wait, how did that happen?
Computer, show me recent activity:
Oh, no. No, no, no. No, no, no, no, NO, NO, NOOOOOO!!!
I didn’t have a rooting interest in this matchup, but cue the Michael Scott GIF because a series of transactions like that gives me serious sympathy nausea.
Okay, what the heck am I talking about? In the lead-up to last week’s games, Chelsie dropped the Chargers D/ST to pick up the Raiders D/ST. Then Nick scooped the Chargers up on waivers and played them…AGAINST her. As you’ll recall, the Chargers D/ST (with their 20 points scored) were ultimately the difference in the game. Brutal.
Or devastatingly smart if you’re Nick. Trailing Chelsie by 7.66 points entering Monday night, Nick needed at least 8 points from the Chargers D/ST. If he had stood pat and played the Browns D/ST (who scored just 5 points), he loses. Instead, he makes the MOVE OF THE YEAR and picks up the Chargers D/ST and advances.
For Chelsie, what are you going to do? We all make moves like this all season long, picking up defenses based on little more than past performance, bad offenses and gut feelings. And the Raiders D/ST were coming off back-to-back games of 9-10 points with their upcoming opponent, the Steelers, having given up double-digit points to defenses in literally half of their games this year. So dropping the Chargers D/ST (who had not hit double figures since Week 1 and were playing in a dome with better weather than most in Week 16) seemed like a reasonable move.
But that’s not the way it played out. The Chargers D/ST, which had reached the requisite 8 points just five out of 14 times this season, posted a season-high 20, powering Nick to the win.
Alas, sometimes we outthink ourselves. After all, it’s the little things. And as fantasy reminds us year in and year out, our brains are littlest of all.
The Scoreboard
Samantha defeats Josh and Nick defeats Chelsie as both advance to first title game of their careers.
Samantha Explodes as Nuclear Josh Melts Down
The last time these two met, Samantha scored 141.32 points, but Josh matched her blow-for-blow. This time, he simply could not keep up.
No Jalen Hurts, no problem. Filling in for QB1 Hurts, Minshew scored 22.7 points (good enough for QB7 on the week). But it was the play of two players further down the lineup that really pushed Samantha over the top—T.J. Hockenson and DJ Moore who together outscored all of Josh’s players not named “Justin Jefferson.” In last week’s semifinal preview, we noted that Josh had better high-end talent, but it was Samantha’s depth (namely T.J. and DJ) that could give her the edge. That was certainly the case this week as, most notably, Hockenson (35.9 points) led the league in scoring for the second week this season (having previously done it in Week 4).
As for Josh, it was just “one of those weeks” at the worst possible time. How bad was it? Justin Fields scored just 9.86 points (the first time he was under 19.26 points since Week 7). And he was the third-highest scorer on this team! Josh Jacobs (still RB3 on the year) had his worst game of the season (just 6.0 points). Zay Jones (2.1 points) crashed back down to earth. And neither Demarcus Robinson (7.6 points) nor Juwan Johnson (1.9 points) hit. Outside of the always-awesome Justin Jefferson—the highest-scoring non-QB in fantasy—this team just picked the wrong week to flop.
Josh moves to the consolation game where he will play for third place. Though he came up short in the semifinals, we shouldn’t lose sight of what an incredible season he had. By all measures, he should have been a Poop Bowl contender. After losing Javonte Williams and Cam Akers (who ironically exploded for 34.7 points in Week 16 albeit on Alex’s bench), this team had no business competing for a championship, falling as low as ninth in the Power Rankings. But by sheer force of will and negotiation skills, Josh came within a game of competing for his first title. Ultimately, the hunt for that elusive white whale will continue.
Nick Strikes Lightning with Chargers, Bolts to First Title Game with Win over Chelsie
As we noted up top, Nick’s pickup of the Chargers D/ST (20 points) was the difference in a high-scoring game. You hate that it had to come down to defenses and kickers, but sometimes that’s fantasy. And Nick’s outscored Chelsie’s 38-19. In a game decided by little more than 12 points, that’s easily the difference in the game.
But about what that marquee matchup of opposing strengths?
Chelsie’s WRs: 43.0 points
Nick’s RBs: 44.8 points
It was so close! Jaylen Waddle and Saquon Barkley both went for 25+ points. A.J. Brown and Travis Etienne both had solid games of 14-17 points. And DeAndre Hopkins and Rhamondre Stevenson both flopped with 1.4 and 3.3 points, respectively. Call it a wash.
Ditto for the QBs, which finished within 0.26 points of one another. Ironically, Nick—who has struggled all season at TE—won the matchup with Evan Engram outscoring Dallas Goedert by 8.6 points. If not for the defenses, this game would have come down to the relative weaknesses of these two team owners. Ultimately, Chelsie’s duo of Najee Harris and Devin Singletary outscored Nick’s of Stefon Diggs and Drake London by a decisive margin of 36.0-19.2. In another world, we’re talking about Chelsie’s shrewd decision to trade away Justin Fields for Devin Singletary. But thanks to the Chargers D/ST, that’s not the way the cookie crumbled. And Nick advances.
As for Chelsie, she will now play Josh in the consolation game. Remember, there’s still prize money up for grabs if you finish third. And even with the loss this week, it’s more-than-a-successful debut for Chelsie who tied Josh in 2014 for the most wins by a league newcomer with nine. Though she lost five of her last six games (including this week’s loss to Nick), she’s forcefully announced herself as a contender for years to come.
Championship Preview
Samantha and Nick are both appearing in their first championship games.
It all comes down to this…
(1) Samantha vs. (3) Nick
After four months, nine trades, 88 games and 316 waiver wire pickups, it all comes down to Samantha vs. Nick for the title. Despite seven playoff appearances and two third-place finishes between them, both are playing in their first-ever title game.
Both are testaments to not giving up when the going gets tough. Ironically, both started the year with losing records. Samantha started 0-2 while Nick got off to a 1-4 start. In the Power Rankings, Samantha was as low as 10th (Week 2) with Nick as low as seventh (Week 4).
But after slow starts, both quickly racked up wins, winning seven out of eight games in the midpoint of the year, and finished as the highest-ranked teams (third and fourth) in the Power Rankings among playoff teams. And even though Brandon and Gray finished 1-2, Samantha and Nick have outperformed both in the postseason with Brandon and Gray both failing to reach 100 points in at least one week in the consolation ladder.
So yes, these are the league’s best two teams, battling it out for a championship. It doesn’t get any better than this. And like last week’s semifinal game between Chelsie and Nick, they are a matchup of opposites.
Samantha is led by her pass-catchers, especially if you count T.J. Hockenson (now TE2 ahead of Mark Andrews). With Davante Adams (WR4), Chris Godwin (WR19) and DJ Moore (WR27 but 18+ in three of his last four), that’s a fearsome foursome all capable of big days. In fact, Samantha enters the title game with 120+ points in six straight weeks, which includes her first-round bye. With team namesake Alvin Kamara coming on strong and Ezekiel Elliott finally getting the Dallas backfield all to himself with Tony Pollard sidelined in Week 17, the only cause for concern—Jalen Hurts injury aside—is that Davante Adams’ best bud, Derek Carr, has surprisingly been benched for…Jarrett Stidham. Who?! Let’s hope Stidham still knows to get Adams the ball.
For Nick, we know by now that he’s led by his RBs. Rhamondre Stevenson (RB8) looked shaky in Week 16, playing through an ankle injury. But with Saquon Barkley (RB5) and Travis Etienne (RB18), those three should provide a solid floor for Nick with exciting upside. Stefon Diggs (WR3) has been better (just 7.3 ppg over the last three weeks), but has tremendous upside as well. And Drake London, a solid pickup from free agency, has quietly put together three double-digit scoring weeks in a row. With Evan Engram hoovering up all the targets in Jacksonville (averaging 10.0 per game over the last four weeks), Nick suddenly has very few weaknesses.
According to the computer, Samantha is a slight favorite (57%) over Nick.
The computer rates Samantha as the favorite with a 57% chance to bring home her first championship, largely thanks to her superior TW% (.643 vs. .565). But Samantha is now without Jalen Hurts and Nick has improved since then, especially with the addition of Evan Engram. As a result, ESPN’s projections actually give Nick the edge (by 7.9 points) with a 54% chance of winning. Ultimately, that’s toss-up territory.
In league history, Samantha is 4-3 against Nick with their only previous playoff matchup coming in the 2018 consolation game—a 114-72 victory for Samantha. But Samantha lost their only matchup this season 146.20-90.70—the only game she lost from Weeks 3-10. That being said, if they had played each other every week this season, Samantha would be 11-5 against Nick, including higher scores in each of the last two weeks during the postseason.
So who’s going to win? I have no idea. But with the Bills taking on the Bengals on MNF, I have little doubt it could all come down to how many points Joe Burrow and Stefon Diggs can muster on Monday night.
Poop Bowl Preview
Greco and Whitney will face off in the first inaugural Poop Bowl.
Last and most definitely least, it’s time to talk about the Poop Bowl.
With losses in Week 16, Alex and Jess will have the dishonor of playing in our second-annual Poop Bowl to determine the recipient of the last-place punishment. Ironically, these two team owners played in the first round of the consolation ladder. Alex won that game handily. But because he lost to Beth Ann in the second round, he falls back down to the bottom where he will face Jess.
Like last year’s Poop Bowl participants, Jess and Alex finished 11th and 12th in the final Power Rankings. Jess had the better team for the balance of the season, but Alex has been playing much better in the postseason of late. Good luck to you both and may the poop be ever in your favor!
