Nick, Josh Join Title-Hungry Semis
It’s official! With Geoff falling in the quarterfinals (sorry Geoff!), a NEW team owner will hoist the Worst League championship trophy (metaphorically speaking) at the end of the year.
After four years in a row of repeat champions, Beth Ann won it all in 2021. And now, we’ll have a new champion yet again, making this year’s champ our eighth in league history, joining Brandon (4 titles), Gray (2), Greco (1), Jess (1), Alex (1), Geoff (1) and Beth Ann (1). Though we’ve had 18 team owners in league history, all seven of the former champs (and soon to be eight) are still active—a good sign that the state of our league is strong.
So without further ado, let’s break down the first round of the playoffs and preview the semifinals yet to come.
The Scoreboard
(3) Nick and (5) Josh advanced to the semifinals with wins over (6) Erik and (4) Geoff.
Nick Defeats Erik, One Saquon behind His Back
For awhile, the result seemed in doubt. But thanks to four second-half TDs for Joe Burrow on Sunday afternoon, Nick pulled away from Erik, ultimately defeating him 122.30-118.02. But that margin of defeat could have been even greater with a total of 145.30 points for Nick if he had simply decided not to bench Saquon Barkley on Monday night with the result already determined. Is that taunting? Or just plain smart given what many Rondale Moore owners experienced earlier this year. Hey, quit when you’re ahead, right?
As for Erik, he actually got great production across the board with 46.1 points from his stud RBs and another 56.2 from his pass-catchers. That was especially impressive considering he got 21.8 points from Dawson Knox. Heckuva start for a team owner averaging just 6.5 ppg from TEs. Overall, it was a good day with his most points scored since Week 11. Yes, he should have played Tee Higgins over Isiah Pacheco. But it wouldn’t have mattered anyway. The real downfall was Justin Herbert whose 8.72 points were easily a season low.
But even if Erik plays Higgins and Herbert has a good day, it’s probably not enough to beat Nick who was just plain better in Week 15 and for the season for that matter. All eight of Nick’s starters hit double-figures, and it would have been nine if he had started Barkley. In fact, with Barkley, Nick would have had his highest-scoring day since Week 6, narrowly missing the mark for his most points scored this season with 146.20.
With the loss, Erik’s luck finally ran out. Still, he closes the door on a successful season, including his second playoff appearance in the last three years. Though he has not won a playoff game since 2012 and is just 1-5 in the playoffs for his career (the lowest winning percentage of any active team owner not counting Chelsie who has yet to play a playoff game), Erik has repeatedly put together playoff-caliber teams that have won between six-to-eight games in all but one of the last six years. Expect Erik to be back in the mix in 2023.
Josh Goes Nuclear on Geoff with Justin Jefferson and…Zay Jones?!
So much for WR2 being “a bit of an adventure.” I believe that’s what I called it in the Playoff Preview.
We knew about Justin Fields (23.58 points) and Justin Jefferson (30.3). And Josh Jacobs (13.0 points) had just a so-so day. But hello, Zay Jones! The 27-year-old former second-round draft pick turned journeyman and eventual Jaguars WR is having a late-season renaissance in Jacksonville where he’s finished as a top-10 WR in three of the last four weeks. And in Week 15, Zay Jones finished as WR1 with 34.9 points scored, including six catches for 109 yards and three touchdowns. That production helped Josh lead all playoff teams in scoring in Week 15 with 152.38 points, his most points scored in a game this year.
As for Geoff, what can you do? 🤷♂️ Though he was down early thanks to Jefferson’s 30.3 points on Saturday, Geoff—like Erik—had a nice game in defeat. Everyone, including Dak Prescott (20.24 points), was solid. He probably hoped for more from Austin Ekeler (“just” 15.0 points) and David Njoku (5.8 points), but steady scoring from the nearly the entire roster led to 128.54 points, Geoff’s fourth straight game of 120+ points and his fifth in the last six weeks. Not much more you can do than that. Josh was just better. Tip your cap.
With the loss, Geoff’s career record in the playoffs drops to 3-4 with three of those four losses coming in the last two years. Still, making back-to-back playoff appearances is nothing to sneeze at. At two years, he is now tied with Nick and Samantha for the longest active playoff streak in the league. I know, two is barely a streak. But that’s how hard it is to continually make the playoffs in this league. He’ll look to build on that success and make it three in 2023, hopefully with a better end result.
Looking Ahead to the Semifinals
In Week 16, it’s (1) Samantha vs. (5) Josh and (2) Chelsie vs. (3) Nick.
Wins for Josh and Nick set up semifinal matchups with Samantha and Chelsie whose teams both put up points despite the byes. Given the new playoff bracket, let’s take a look at the updated playoff chances and break down each matchup.
Now that he’s advanced to the semifinals, Nick is actually a slight favorite over Chelsie.
(1) Samantha vs. (5) Josh
One of the league’s best teams meets one of its hottest in a scintillating semifinal matchup. Though they got here in different ways (Samantha through the draft, Josh wheeling and dealing), their profiles are stunningly similar.
Running QBs (Jalen Hurts vs. Justin Fields)
High-upside lead backs (Alvin Kamara vs. Josh Jacobs)
Solid RB2s (Ezekiel Elliott vs. Kenneth Walker)
Top-five WR1s (Davante Adams vs. Justin Jefferson)
Prolific WR2s (Chris Godwin vs. Zay Jones)
Rolls-of-the-dice at flex (DJ Moore vs. ???)
Productive TEs (T.J. Hockenson vs. recent-add Juwan Johnson)
At the high end, I think I’d rather have some of Josh’s talent, notably Jacobs and Jefferson. But Samantha has better depth with Chris Godwin, DJ Moore and T.J. Hockenson (though Juwan Johnson keeps scoring TDs).
Unfortunately, the elephant in the room here is the untimely injury to Jalen Hurts, which has caused this game to lose some of its luster. Hurts is not just the QB1; he’s the leading scorer in all of fantasy. Thanks to a sprained shoulder in his Week 15 game agains the Bears in which Hurts scored a season-high 34.7 points, Samantha will now be without her (and perhaps the NFL’s) MVP. How good has Hurts been? He’s averaging 26.4 ppg and, prior to the injury, had scored 29.82 points or more in four straight games. Now with Gardner Minshew as Hurts’ real-life and fantasy backup, her projection on ESPN probably dropped around eight points. That’s a big blow.
All that being said, I wouldn’t count out Samantha just yet. She still has some dudes. And Josh has some injury issues of his own with Kenneth Walker potentially questionable with an ankle injury. Kareem Hunt (on Josh’s bench) would have been a nice fill-in if Nick Chubb were to miss, but Chubb has been cleared to play Saturday. That probably leaves Zack Moss as Walker’s backup. He did get the carries last week for the Colts with Jonathan Taylor out, but it’s not ideal.
Though she’s the top overall seed, Samantha enters this game looking for revenge. Previously, Josh beat Samantha in both of their matchups earlier this year. Both games were decided by single digits and their Week 12 game was a must-win for Josh, sealed by Josh Jacobs’ 86-yard walk-off overtime TD. For their careers, Josh is 5-2 against Samantha, which includes his playoff victory over Samantha in the 2019 semifinals.
This one’s close. If Hurts were healthy, Samantha would probably be favored. But coming off a 150-point game, Josh may have the edge. The computer rates Samantha as a considerable favorite (66%) based on their season-long TW%. But Josh’s team is much improved given his late-season trades. Accordingly, the ESPN projections favor Josh with a 4.5-point edge. Still, that’s just a 52% chance of winning. Like both of their regular season matchups, I wouldn’t be surprised if this one comes down to the wire, which just might be Chris Godwin playing on Christmas night. Will Santa bring Samantha coal or a trip to the fantasy finals?
(2) Chelsie vs. (3) Nick
Now this is the battle of opposing styles we’ve been dying to see.
Chelsie led the league this year in WR scoring with 46.3 ppg. And during her first-round bye in Week 15, she did even better, showing just how dangerous her team can be with 60.5 points from her three studs—A.J. Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and Jaylen Waddle. That doesn’t even include Diontae Johnson who had his best game of the year with 20 points on 10 receptions on the bench.
Meanwhile, Nick led the league this year in RB scoring with 38.5 ppg. Currently, he has two top-10 RBs in Saquon Barkley (RB5) and Rhamondre Stevenson (RB8) with Travis Etienne not too far behind (RB18). All three looked strong in Week 15, scoring 60.5 points, matching Chelsie’s three WRs down to the decimal.
All of which means this one may come down to the supporting cast:
Patrick Mahomes vs. Joe Burrow
Stefon Diggs/Drake London vs. Najee Harris/Devin Singletary
Dallas Goedert vs. Evan Engram
At QB, you’ve got to favor Chelsie and Patrick Mahomes. But Joe Burrow was dominant down the stretch last year for the Bengals and Nick, leading him to a third-place finish. And at TE, it’s likely a toss-up. Dallas Goedert, who was strong early, should finally be making his return from a shoulder injury. But Evan Engram has looked just as good for the Jaguars in recent weeks, averaging more than 10 targets per game over the last three weeks.
That means it probably all comes down to how Chelsie’s RBs play against Nick’s WRs. Relative weakness vs. relative weakness. Given the Stefon Diggs (WR3) of it all, I’d probably favor Nick. Not to mention that Drake London is finally averaging double-digit targets over the last two weeks. (Now the Falcons start throwing London the ball?!)
But for Chelsie, AJ Dillon has quietly looked strong these last few weeks, averaging 20.3 ppg over his last three games. And with Caleb Huntley sidelined with an Achilles injury, Tyler Allgeier (22.6 points)—also on Chelsie’s bench—had his best game of the season too. That duo actually outscored both of Chelsie’s starters, Najee Harris and Devin Singletary, making for a tough decision at both RB positions in Week 16. But these are good problems to have.
Regardless of how it all shakes out, I’m fascinated to watch. Both the computer and the ESPN projections favor Nick but by the slimmest of margins. By their season-long TW%, the computer says Nick has a 53% chance of winning. And ESPN agrees, saying 52% and giving Nick a 3.5-point edge. So perhaps, he’s the favorite. But he is relying on a lot of Jaguars for my taste—Etienne, Engram and the Jaguars D/ST. (JT would be proud.) With the Jaguars playing on Thursday night and Chelsie with at least four starters playing Sunday or Monday, the narrative is sure to be whether Nick can hold on. And it might all come down to the Chargers D/ST on Monday night.
Nick and Chelsie split their regular season series with Chelsie winning in Week 1 and Nick returning the favor in Week 12. The rubber match will determine who goes to the title game.
Poop Bowl Update
Lastly, let’s take a look at the consolation ladder.
With wins in Week 15, Brandon and Greco are safe from the Poop Bowl.
Where was that all season? Alex scored 175.76 points in Week 15 thanks to 25+ points from Josh Allen, Jerick McKinnon and George Kittle. Yes, it’s the most points ever scored in playoff or consolation ladder history, surpassing Beth Ann’s record of 163.82 in last year’s title game. And it’s the second-most points scored this year, falling short of 190 points Chelsie put up in Week 8. But unfortunately, Alex is not safe from the Poop Bowl yet.
That distinction belongs to Brandon and Greco (a participant in last year’s Poop Bowl) who pulled off victories over Beth Ann and Gray. The wins push them to the top of the consolation ladder, safely eliminating them from Poop Bowl contention. With her loss, Beth Ann will face Alex while Gray slips to the bottom of the ladder where he will take on Jess. Win and you’re safe. Lose and you advance to the Poop Bowl.
Good luck my poop brethren! Godspeed.
