Week 11 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Thanksgiving is upon us!

Hopefully, you’re spending time with family, whether virtually or in person. It’s been one heck of a year, but I’m thankful that it’s finally drawing to a close and that we all have fantasy football to play, at least for a couple more weeks.

Without further ado, let’s recap the week’s games and talk about where things stand with just two regular season games remaining.

The Scoreboard

Jess became the sixth team owner to win a weekly prize this season, scoring 152.36 points in Week 11.

Let’s start with a quick roundup of Week 11.

Jess had easily her best game of the season, defeating Geoff 152.36-138.92 and leading all scorers for the first time this season—her first weekly prize since Week 13 of 2017. A PPR machine, Jess’s pass-catchers (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson and Mark Andrews) led the way with 88.8 points. Meanwhile, with a league-leading 121.1 ppg allowed (100.3 pre-PPR, fourth-most all time), Geoff has now faced the weekly prize winner four times this season. No other team owner has had it happen more than once.

How unusual is that? It’s not uncommon for a team owner to face two weekly prize winners in a season. It happens multiple times every year. There have even been six teams to do it three times in a season, including Geoff last year. But only once before has a team owner faced the highest weekly score four times in a season. That’d be Brandon in 2014 who missed the playoffs at 7-6 that year. And now Geoff, who still has two more shots to go for the record with five.

In the primetime game of the week, Gray defeated Beth Ann by more than 30 points, which also happens to be around the total Robert Woods scored in his best game of the season on Monday night. Not coincidentally, this was also Gray’s best game of the season, scoring 142.5 points and staking a claim to the best record in the league at 9-2 and an inside track on the top overall seed in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Beth Ann has quietly cooled following her hot start and ranks just fifth in TW% and seventh in points over the last five weeks.

Josh won a nail-biter over Samantha. Both teams underwhelmed, but it was Darren Waller’s 21.8 points on Sunday night that pushed Josh over the top. Had Gray not backed out of the Taysom Hill for J.K. Dobbins deal he offered to Samantha on the group chat, Samantha would have won the game 106.98-106.74. That would have been the narrowest margin in league history and quite possibly have eliminated Josh from the playoffs. As is stands now, both team owners remain in the hunt.

Erik staged a comeback victory over Alex thanks to a late TD for Chris Godwin in the fourth quarter on Monday night. The win all but eliminated Alex while lifting Erik into pole position for the sixth and final playoff spot.

Securing a crucial seventh win and a possible playoff spot, Brandon crushed Nick behind a balanced effort, including one of Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s best games of the season. With 65.48 points, this is Nick’s second straight week finishing last in scoring and the fourth time this season.

And finally, Whitney won her second game in a row while halting Greco’s own three-game win streak and is now just a game back of the sixth playoff spot at 5-6. It’s interesting to note that Whitney’s win over Greco this week was the first instance this season where the outcome of a game would have changed based on PPR scoring. Whitney won the game 116.14-104.24. Despite losing the game by around 12 points, Greco actually would have won the game 89-73 based on last year’s scoring settings. That was due largely in part to the wide differential in receptions, which was 39-11 in Whitney’s favor.

Power Rankings

For the first time this season, neither Josh nor Beth Ann find themselves atop the Power Rankings. Instead, we have a new team owner staking a claim to the top spot—Brandon!

(Cue the third-person analysis.)

With a TW% of .628 and 125.4 ppg, Brandon now leads the Power Rankings for the first time since Week 4 of last season. After starting 1-3, you can be forgiven if you haven’t noticed his quiet rise. He hasn’t dominated the league and has never topped 143 points. He’s yet to win a weekly prize and has only finished in the top 2 in scoring one time this season.

But he’s been solidly consistent, winning six of the last seven. He’s the only team owner without a score of less than 105 points. And the standard deviation of his scores is just 13.8 ppg compared to 25.6 for Beth Ann and 32.6 for Josh. Only Gray has been more consistent and just barely. Though he doesn’t have a weekly prize, Brandon has finished in the top half of the league in scoring in nine out of 11 weeks, including each of the last seven. No other team owner comes close. By comparison, Josh has finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring in six out of the last eight weeks.

Come playoff time, I don’t know if I’d rather have the more consistently good team or the more explosively awesome yet possibly disastrous squad. But at least for one week, this team is on top of the heap.

As for the rest of the rankings, Josh and Beth Ann are now tied for second and just a game behind Brandon. They are joined in the top tier by Gray who is now just three games back of first place and could easily be first in these rankings with another spectacular showing like the one he displayed in Week 11. With a playoff spot locked up and the recently-traded-for Raheem Mostert and Myles Gaskin both returning to health in the near future, there’ll be plenty of time to talk about the possibility of this reigning champ defending his crown.

In the middle tier, Jess had a big week, jumping two spots into fifth place. But perhaps more important was her jump in total points, which will come in handy in the event of any playoff tiebreakers. She’s followed by Geoff, Samantha (who dropped two spots), Erik, Greco and Alex. All of those teams with the exception of Geoff remain in contention. Finally, Whitney and Nick continue to bring up the rear, though Whitney has narrowed the gap in recent weeks.

Speaking of Geoff, now that he’s officially eliminated, he may join a list of the best teams to miss the playoffs. Here they are sorted by best TW%:

Brandon, 2012*: 91-52 (.636 TW%)
Gray, 2017*: 89-50-4 (.636 TW%)
Trevor, 2014*: 88-55 (.615 TW%)
Trevor, 2012*: 87-54-2 (.615 TW%)
Trevor, 2011*: 84-57-2 (.594 TW%)
Jess, 2017*: 84-59 (.587 TW%)
Erik, 2014*: 83-59-1 (.584 TW%)
JT, 2011: 79-63-1 (.556 TW%)
Brandon, 2015: 79-64 (.552 TW%)
Nick, 2012: 78-65 (.545 TW%)

With a TW% of .537, Geoff currently would not rank among this group. But you’ll also probably notice all those asterisks above, which indicate that while those teams did miss the playoffs, they would have made a six-team playoff had one existed. Back then, playoff teams were held to a much higher standard. So let’s show the list with those teams removed, only showing the best teams that would have missed a six-team playoff so we can more properly compare to Geoff this year. Here they are:

JT, 2011: 79-63-1 (.556 TW%)
Brandon, 2015: 79-64 (.552 TW%)
Nick, 2012: 78-65 (.545 TW%)
Brandon, 2014: 78-65 (.545 TW%)
JT, 2016: 76-67 (.531 TW%)
JT, 2018: 74-66-3 (.528 TW%)
Josh, 2017: 74-66-3 (.528 TW%)
Erik, 2018: 74-67-2 (.524 TW%)
Geoff, 2019: 74-67-2 (.524 TW%)
Alex, 2017: 72-71-0 (.503 TW%)

Now Geoff’s team would rank as the fifth-best team to miss the playoffs. In fact, it’s not too dissimilar from the result he suffered last season when he finished fifth in the final Power Rankings yet missed the playoffs at 6-7. Despite the fact that his team this year is 3-8, he actually has a better team this season. And that’s despite all the injuries.

Also, no wonder JT left. He kept missing the playoffs despite some solid teams. Stick with us, Geoff. Your luck will turn around.

Playoff Picture

Gray and Beth Ann are the first two teams to clinch a playoff spot.

Alright, let’s get to what you probably came here for—the Playoff Picture.

Who’s clinched?

Gray’s victory over Beth Ann this week officially clinched his spot in the playoffs. Remember last week we said that the winner of that game would be in. Well, it also turns out that so is the loser. Thanks to Josh’s victory over Samantha, Beth Ann has also clinched a spot in the playoffs. With eight wins, there’s no way a seventh team could catch her in the standings, even if she loses out. So she’s in.

Congrats are in order to both team owners. This is Gray’s league-leading seventh playoff appearance in 10 seasons and his second straight, having just won the championship last year. Meanwhile, this will be Beth Ann’s first playoff appearance in just her second season.

What about the divisions and the all-important byes?

Both Gray and Beth Ann are still heavy favorites. With a two-game lead on Jess with two games to go, Gray is a virtual lock. The only way he doesn’t get the division is if (1) he loses out, (2) Jess wins out, AND (3) she catches up to him in points. Currently, he leads her by 80.52 points, which means she’d need to outscore Gray by 40.26 ppg. Not likely.

As for Beth Ann, things got a little interesting. She still has a 98% chance to win the division thanks to a one-game lead over Brandon with two games to go. And she plays one-win Nick this week. So she should win that one. And even if she loses to Samantha in Week 13, the worst-case scenario for her is probably that it comes down to a tiebreaker with Brandon at 9-4. Because Brandon closed the gap this week, her points lead is now just 41.96 points. It’s not likely, but if we re-run the simulations assuming Brandon does catch her in points, his odds jump to 23%—essentially the chances of flipping a coin and getting heads twice in a row.

Which teams do we feel most confident should make the playoffs?

Brandon and Jess.

At this point, Brandon is a virtual lock. At first glance, the nightmare scenario is one in which Jess, Greco and Erik all get to eight wins with Brandon losing the points tiebreaker to Josh. But because of the schedule, that’s not possible. Specifically, Jess plays both Greco and Erik in her final two games, which means it’s not possible for all three to get to 8-5.

The real worst case would be Greco and Erik winning out with a four-way tie at 7-6 for the final two playoff spots between Brandon, Jess, Josh and Samantha. Josh already has Brandon beat in points, though the margin has narrowed, so Brandon would just have to maintain his lead over Samantha and Jess. Currently, he leads them by 85.4 and 91.34 points, respectively. With two games left in the season, that’s a pretty big hurdle for either team owner to overcome.

As for Jess, she too is heavily favored to make the playoffs with a 97% chance. A big help is the fact that she passed Greco and Erik in points this week. That being said, unlike with Brandon, she trails Samantha (-5.94 points) and her lead over the other two is narrow—just 11.16 and 18.66 points. That’s a toss-up. If she wins one more game, she’s in. But if she loses out AND loses her points lead, her odds drop to 41%. It’s not enough for me to suggest Jess won’t make the playoffs. But it’s enough to make you sweat.

Bottom line for both of them—win and they’re in. But even without those wins, they’ll probably be safe. Remember, no 7-4 team has ever missed the playoffs.

How is the race for the last two spots shaping up?

Okay, that’s four teams we feel pretty good about. What about the rest?

There are six teams still in contention fighting for two spots. In order of playoff odds, they are Josh (67%), Erik (58%), Greco (54%), Samantha (18%), Whitney (7%) and Alex (<1%).

If the playoffs were to start today, Greco and Erik would get the last two spots. At 6-5 with two games to go, they both control their own destiny. Win their last two games and they’re in.

But the computer actually likes Josh better than the both of them. In fact, due to the same quirk in the schedule mentioned above, Josh actually controls his own destiny too despite being a game back. That’s because it’s impossible for Jess, Erik and Greco to all get to eight wins. One of them will have seven or fewer wins. So if Josh can win out—which means beating both Alex and Whitney—he should be in due to his commanding points lead.

That leaves the long shots.

Samantha has a tough schedule, needing to beat both Brandon and Beth Ann. If she can manage that, she still has an 87% chance of making the playoffs given the fact that she leads Jess, Greco and Erik in points. Her best bet would be to root hard for Jess. If she can keep Greco and Erik from getting to eight wins, that would leave two spots—one for Josh and one for her, assuming Samantha maintains her points lead.

Whitney is also 5-6 but has significantly fewer points. Realistically, she’s not going to be able to win any tiebreakers. So the only way she gets in is to win out and hope that as few teams as possible make it to seven wins. The computer gives her just a 7% chance, but if she wins out, her odds increase to 67%.

That being said, I wouldn’t count out Whitney yet. Quietly, she’s been the best team over the last two weeks. Thanks to Keenan Allen, she had 39 receptions in Week 10, second only to the 41 Josh had back in Week 7. And in Week 12, she should get back Chris Carson.

Finally, there’s Alex who is the longest of long shots. At 4-7, he needs to get to 6-7 and then hope for help. If he can catch Samantha, Jess, Greco and Erik in points (needs to outscore them by 51.18 points), the computer gives him a 1.4% chance. It’s not at all likely, but it’s still technically possible.

Who’s eliminated?

Nick and Geoff can at best get to 3-10 or 5-8, respectively. Neither would be enough to get to the current cutoff, which is six wins. At this point, they’re playing for pride. Set those lineups. And remember, Nick is fighting to avoid some historical worsts. He needs one win to avoid becoming the first team owner with 12 losses. And he needs seven true wins to avoid being named the worst team of all time by TW%.

Lastly, let’s show the updated Wall of Destiny, which reflects a lot of the same points I made above, but probably in an easier to understand format.

If she wins out, Whitney has a 66.6% chance of making the playoffs.

Based on this table, we can see that seven teams still control their destiny, including Brandon, Jess, Greco, Erik and Josh in addition to Gray and Beth Ann who have already clinched. Samantha needs help, but could still make the playoffs even with a loss this week. Meanwhile, both Alex and Whitney are facing elimination and must win this week.

Looking Ahead to Week 12

With Gray and Beth Ann facing the two eliminated team owners in Geoff and Nick, that leaves four critical matchups:

Brandon (7-4) vs. Samantha (5-6)
Jess (7-4) vs. Greco (6-5)
Erik (6-5) vs. Whitney (5-6)
Josh (5-6) vs. Alex (4-7)

A win for Brandon or Jess and they would officially clinch. Everyone else is jockeying for position. And Alex and Whitney are fighting for survival. Two more weeks left in the fantasy regular season.

Good luck to everyone in Week 12!