Week 10 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Ten weeks down. Three to go.

We are officially in the homestretch. And that means all eyes turn to the playoffs. With three games to go, there are technically still no locks while several team owners remain in the thick of the playoff hunt with only Nick officially eliminated after his loss this week.

Things may seem bleak for your team, but the night is always darkest before the dawn. And as Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins proved this week with the recently-trademarked “Hail Murray”—our cover image for the week—anything is possible.

Alex was yet again game to record another episode of the podcast this week. So he called me up and we discussed all things Worst League including the biggest games of Week 10, how the playoff race is shaking up, Gray’s recent acquisition of Taysom Hill, mailbag questions, and a brand new data table that visualizes how many games you need to win to feel good about making the playoffs. It’s the Wall of Destiny! Sorry Kyler, I’m trademarking that one.

So without further ado, take a listen to the episode below. And if you’ve already listened, scroll down to take a look at some of the data we reference on this week’s episode, including the Wall of Destiny. Happy listening!

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The Scoreboard

Greco led all scorers for the first time since Week 1 of 2017.

We’re leaving most of the breakdown for the pod, but I’ll quickly summarize the week’s games for posterity here.

In Week 10, Greco broke out in a big way, leading all scorers with 145.6 points. This was her first weekly prize of the season, and she is now just the fifth team owner to win one this season, joining Beth Ann, Josh, Geoff and Alex. This was also the first time Greco won a weekly prize since Week 1 of 2017. If you’re reading this Greco, send that Venmo request to Alex to claim your reward. Speaking of Alex, he gets the loss, dropping his record to 4-6 and delivering a significant blow to his playoff chances.

As for the remaining games, Josh stomped Nick as Nick Chubb made his return to Josh’s lineup for the first time in weeks. The win is reminder of what makes Hig Newton such a dangerous roster despite the 4-6 record when he has both Alvin Kamara and Chubb in the starting lineup. Meanwhile, the loss drops Nick to 1-9 and officially eliminates him from the playoffs.

Beth Ann outlasted Jess as both team owners had their worst games of the season. Whitney upset Geoff after an explosive outing in which she scored just 6.48 points fewer than her last two games combined. Sorry, Geoff. Samantha upended Erik with 17.02 points of her 17.58-point margin coming on a single play—the aforementioned Hail Murray.

And finally, Brandon narrowly handed Gray his second loss of the season. The margin of victory was just 1.64 points, which was the smallest margin of victory this season. The loss coupled with a win for Beth Ann takes both division leaders to 8-2 and sets up a tantalizing Week 11 matchup.

Power Rankings

After the second-best score of Week 10, Josh jumps back to the top spot in the Power Rankings for the first time since Week 5. You might recall he held this spot for three weeks from Weeks 3-5. This is now his fourth week atop the rankings with the other six occupied by Beth Ann.

Speaking of Beth Ann, she and Brandon join Josh in a top tier of teams separated by just one game apiece. Either of these three could easily be in first place come this time next week.

After this top group, which has all won more than 60% of true games, Gray and Samantha form the next tier. Interestingly, Gray was also the fourth-place team at this time in last year’s rankings and we all know how that story ended.

The third tier consists of Geoff, Jess, Erik, Alex and Greco—all teams still vying for playoff spots. And finally, Whitney and Nick finish off the Power Rankings. Interesting to note, though he is eliminated from playoff contention, Nick needs 7 true wins to get to 32 and avoid becoming the worst Worst team of all time. Who says he doesn’t have something to play for?

Playoff Picture

Beth Ann and Gray remain virtual locks for the playoffs though no team owner has clinched a spot yet.

Following crucial Week 10 victories, the biggest jumps in playoff chances this week were Greco (+42.4%) and Samantha (+19.3%). Conversely, the biggest drops were Erik (-26.6%), Jess (-17.3%), Geoff (-16.4%) and Alex (-12.0%). If the playoffs were to start today, Beth Ann, Gray, Brandon, Greco, Jess and Samantha would make it. That being said, the computer projects Erik to beat out Samantha for the sixth and final spot. For what it’s worth, all six teams projected to make the playoffs in last year’s Week 10 Playoff Picture went on to make the playoffs.

Okay, let’s break it down group by group, starting with the locks.

Beth Ann and Gray have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs. They’re virtual locks. Whoever wins their game this week clinches. And, as we discussed on the pod, the loser can only miss the playoffs if a complicated series of events comes to pass in which a six-way tie at 8-5 for the other five playoff spots occurs AND all four of those teams pass Beth Ann/Gray in total points scored. Not likely.

On the other end of the spectrum, Nick at 1-9 with three games to go can at best get to 4-9. Currently, the 6-seed belongs to Samantha who is 5-5, which means he can’t catch her even if everything goes his way. That’s why he’s eliminated. We recapped his season a bit on the pod, but I’ll formally do that in the final regular season recap after Week 13.

Okay, so that leaves four spots for nine team owners. The 6-4 teams are in the best shape—Brandon, Greco and Jess. They all have at least a 73% chance of making the playoffs. And historically, 6-4 teams make the playoffs 87% of the time.

So if we assume all three of those teams make it—which let me reaffirm is most definitely not a certainty—that leaves one spot left. And there are three team owners in serious contention for that spot. They are Erik, Samantha and Josh. Right now, the computer gives Erik the best chance at 48%, but Samantha and Josh are not far behind. Of this group, Samantha is in the best position with more wins than Josh and more points than Erik. But she has the toughest remaining schedule in the league (Josh, Brandon and Beth Ann). That opens the door for Erik or even Josh. Despite his 4-6 record, the fact that he leads the league in scoring by a fairly wide margin over potential competitors for the final spot means he’s in a better position than you might think.

Finally, don’t forget about the dark horses. Alex, Whitney and Geoff. All have less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs. Each needs to win out and get help.

And now for something really fun…

Every year, I try to find something new to introduce to these writeups. This year, I’ve got a new table I’m calling the Wall of Destiny. Alex and I go over this in pretty great detail on the podcast, but here’s the long and short of it:

Rather than reduce your chances of making the playoffs to a single number like with the Playoff Picture, the Wall of Destiny shows you what your chances of making the playoffs would be based on how many more games you win the rest of the season.

Check it out…

Introducing the Wall of Destiny, which shows what you need to do to control your own playoff destiny.

Some key takeaways:

Teams with a 100% chance in the 0-3 column are locks for the playoffs. They can lose every game for the rest of the season and would still make the playoffs. That’s Beth Ann and Gray.
Teams with a 100% chance in the 3-0 column still control their own destiny—if they win every game on their schedule, they will make the playoffs. That’s Beth Ann, Gray, Brandon, Greco, Jess, Samantha, Erik and almost Josh.
To determine how many more wins your team needs to be a lock for the playoffs, find the point in the table where your odds reach 100%. For example, if Greco wins two more games, she’s a lock. And even at one more win, she’s at 92.3%.
The point at which your team’s odds drop to 0% indicates the point at which your team would be eliminated. For example, Josh can only afford to lose one more game.

My favorite thing about this table is that if you’re doing well, it gives you a target number of wins to hit. For example, I feel pretty good about my chances if I get just one more win (99.7%). And if you’re not doing well, it gives you hope. For example, Alex has just a 4% chance of making the playoffs according to the Playoff Picture, but if he can win all three of his remaining games, he still has a 72.6% chance of making the playoffs. Even Geoff at 3-7 has a 3.6% chance of making the playoffs if he wins out.

Lastly, remember all these numbers assume the current points tiebreakers remain the same. You can obviously increase your odds, sometimes quite drastically, if you can overtake another team ahead of you in points. It’s one of the reasons Josh is in such great shape despite his 4-6 record. So check out that column on the right, which shows your current points deficit behind the points leader and compare your number to others you might be battling for playoff contention to see how many points you need to make up.

Looking Ahead to Week 11

As we mentioned above, the biggest matchup of the week is a potential championship preview between Beth Ann (8-2) and Gray (8-2). Winner clinches a playoff spot. Ditto for Brandon (6-4) who in all likelihood would be able to secure his place in the playoffs given his points lead with a win over Nick (1-9) who is already eliminated.

Also pivotal will be the game between Samantha (5-5) and Josh (4-6). Both could survive the loss, but a win would obviously be much preferred. Likewise, Erik (5-5) and Alex (4-6) will battle it out, jockeying for playoff position.

Finally, as for team owners facing potential elimination, Whitney (4-6) takes on Greco (6-4) and Geoff (3-7) faces Jess (6-4). Whitney and Geoff must win or they are eliminated, according to the Wall of Destiny.

That’s it for this week. Good luck to everyone in Week 11!