Week 3 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Sep 29

Sep 29 Week 3 Power Rankings

Saquon Barkley went down. Danny Dimes rose up. But the real story of Week 3, at least for those following the Worst League, was the ascendence of Josh. Last year’s early leader in the Power Rankings, Josh continued his recent string of good starts with the first 3-0 start by a team owner in two years. In fact, it’s the first time a team owner not named Greco has done it since 2015.

For Josh, he’s no stranger to an early undefeated streak. In fact, since Josh joined the league in 2014, he has gone 3-0 to start the season three out of six times. No other owner has done it more. And in case you’re wondering, the last two times Josh started the season with three wins, he went on to make the playoffs.

This week, it was his beloved Seahawks QB and 10th-round pick Russell Wilson who saved his bacon, delivering 41 crucial points in a matchup that seemed out of reach until the Bears D/ST threatened to steal the game for Geoff on Monday night. It was the first 40-point game by a player this season, surpassing the previous season-high (35 points) set by the Patriots D/ST last week.

With games of 101 and 110 points, Josh has now hit triple digits in two straight games and has yet to score fewer than 96 points this season. With Derrick Henry playing the way he did in last year’s fantasy playoffs (currently, he’s RB5), Josh has a solid 1-2 punch at RB with Henry and James Conner. Not to mention a capable trio of young WRs (Brandin Cooks, DJ Moore and Christian Kirk) to pair with Golden Tate who should return from suspension in Week 5. Oh, yeah, and then there’s that Travis Kelce guy. Yes, this could finally be the year that Josh rids himself of that pesky title of best team owner (as measured by career TW%) to have never won a championship.

The Scoreboard

With teams averaging 97.5 points, Week 3 was the fourth-highest scoring week in league history.

Scoring was up in Week 3 with over half the league hitting triple digits. With an average score of 97.5 points, it was the fourth-highest scoring week in league history, and the highest scoring week since Week 6 of last season.

Topping that list of scorers was Brandon who rebounded from his 74-point performance last week to once again post the highest score of the week in Week 3. It’s his second weekly prize this season and the 10th of his career in just 29 weeks since they were instituted at the start of the 2017 season. That’s over a third of all weekly prizes. No other owner has more than four.

Unfortunately for Erik, he was the one matched up with this week’s top scorer, losing 132-112 and falling to 0-3. It was the most points in a loss this season and the most since Gray scored 119 points in a loss to Erik, ironically, in Week 8 of last year. Despite three 20+ point scorers in Patrick Mahomes, Phillip Lindsay and Amari Cooper, Todd Gurley was not able to get the job done for Erik on Sunday night, being outscored be teammate and fantasy opponent Cooper Kupp 22-4, which was pretty much the difference in the game.

Joining Brandon at the top of the scoreboard, just as she did in Week 1, was Jess who demolished Nick 128-68—the largest margin of defeat in a game this season. This time it wasn’t just her RBs but her WRs that poured on the points with a combined 38 points from Adam Thielen and Tyler Lockett, not to mention 19 from TE Greg Olsen. Nick, meanwhile, had just two players (Dak Prescott and Joe Mixon) score more than 7 points.

Next up was Beth Ann with a 112-80 victory over Greco. (If this is sounding familiar, it’s because Brandon, Jess and Beth Ann finished in this exact order in Week 1.) It would not have made the difference, but Greco’s decision to continue benching more highly drafted players Le’Veon Bell and Mark Ingram in favor of Royce Freeman and Tyrell Williams cost her at least 21 points. It’s going to be hard to continue benching either of those guys moving forward, especially after Ingram’s 31 points now ranks him second only to Dalvin Cook in scoring among all RBs.

As previously mentioned, Josh advanced to 3-0, defeating Geoff 110-100. Though he got the L, it was an encouraging sign for Geoff who for the first time this season scored more than 79 points as Demarcus Robinson (39 points in the last two weeks) appears to be a capable fill-in for Tyreek Hill while the latter is out with injury.

With a 109-70 win, Gray continued his personal assault on Alex, who he has now defeated seven times in nine regular season matchups. This year, it was Mike Evans leading the way with 3 TDs Sunday and 37 fantasy points. Meanwhile, Alex’s offense looked more than a little hobbled without top overall pick Saquon Barkley who suffered a high ankle sprain during the game and was last seen on crutches. It was the fewest points scored by Alex in a game since Week 11 of 2017—almost two years ago. And his opponent in that matchup? Terryn. That’s how long it’s been.

Finally, JT and the Glitter Kitties pulled out the 82-67 win over a struggling Samantha who, like Erik, drops to 0-3. Without a single player scoring more than 13 points this week, she has yet to top 80 points this season. There was a lot of expectation in Cleveland this season, but the early struggles of the Browns have seriously hindered her performance. Et tu, Cleveland?

Power Rankings

Yes, Brandon returned to his Week 1 form, but it’s Josh with a perfect 3-0 record and .712 TW% that sits atop both the official standings and this week’s Power Rankings. Though he has yet to win a weekly prize, his consistent production through three weeks is the reason he leads.

But joining him at the top is a tier of four that also includes Jess, Beth Ann and Brandon. Through three weeks, those four team owners are separated by just 1.5 true games and could easily swap positions in the coming weeks.

It’s too early to make proclamations of this sort, but Jess’s team is shaping up to have one of the most dominant trio of RBs we’ve ever seen. Last year, Alex had the highest-scoring team in league history, which was led by the triumvirate of Ezekiel Elliott, James Conner and Phillip Lindsay who all finished in the top-11 at the position. For the season, he averaged a ridiculous 42.1 ppg from RBs. (By comparison, league average is 24.0 ppg.) But through three weeks, thanks to the trio of David Johnson, Dalvin Cook and Austin Ekeler, Jess is getting an otherworldly 53.0 ppg. She’s crushing the all-time record.

It’s unlikely to hold up to this extreme, but right now they are respectively the #11, #1 and #4 RBs in fantasy. That’s three RB1s all on the same team. And while we might have expected that from Johnson and Cook (first- and second-round draft picks), Ekeler was a sixth-rounder picked behind the likes of Duke Johnson and Kenyan Drake. It’s no wonder her team is performing so well.

The question becomes what happens to Ekeler now that Melvin Gordon has officially returned to the team. Yes, Jess picked Gordon in the fifth round. So she’s in good shape. He was one of the biggest draft-day fallers, sliding almost nine spots below his ADP. But with the performance of Ekeler, I wonder if the whole is somehow less than the sum of its parts. In other words, is this backfield now a committee and will the production of two backs in Los Angeles limit the potential of either as a workhorse?

But honestly, this is a problem I think we all wish we had. Several offenses have shown the ability to have two productive backs in recent years—the Saints, Falcons, Broncos and Patriots being ones that come to mind. And if there’s any team I’m confident will be a major factor come playoff time, it’s Jess’s.

Next up is Beth Ann who holds steady in third. And it’s hard to believe we’ve come this far in this week’s writeup without discussing Antonio Brown. You might recall, he was my #1 burning question for 2019, specifically whether he would save or sabotage Beth Ann’s season. Here’s what I wrote before Week 1 after Brown’s stock was riding high upon being signed by the Patriots:

But color me skeptical that this ride is over. At best, Brown is a malcontent who some believe conspired to sabotage his way to New England. And at worst, there’s something really wrong going on with Antonio Brown, which might require professional help. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes as WR1 or if he never plays a game for the Patriots.

Turns out I wasn’t very far off. After sitting out Week 1, Brown played just one game for the Patriots before being released following a civil suit regarding allegations of sexual assault. Now Beth Ann will be without her second-round pick for the rest of the season, having cut him from her team as well. (Note: Alex has since rostered Brown in hopes he finds a new team. Good luck with that.) To date, this is probably the most significant loss for a team owner this season considering where he was drafted and the time to be missed. At least with Tyreek Hill and Saquon Barkley, we expect those guys to be back.

And yet, Beth Ann is still third and just 1.0 true game back of Josh for the lead in the Power Rankings. And considering Antonio Brown only played one game, much of that success has been without him anyway. In fact, it’s not Antonio but another Brown, 14th-round pick Marquise, who just might be the best WR on her roster, currently WR11 through three weeks.

At fourth is Brandon, the current points leader, who moves up four spots following another explosive outing in Week 3. This time it was his receivers, specifically Keenan Allen and Cooper Kupp who helped lead the way.

Next is a middle tier of six that includes Greco, Gray, Erik, JT, Alex and Nick. All but Gray and JT lost in Week 3. But notable is the fact that Erik finds himself tied for seventh despite his record of 0-3. And don’t let the record fool you, this is still a solid team. Erik’s just been a little unlucky with the second-most points allowed and two losses during weeks in which he scored 92 points or more. By comparison, Alex is 2-1 despite having not scored more than 88 points in a game this season.

Speaking of Alex, he ranks ninth and is so far the weakest of the teams with winning records. And he’s going to need that good start, because now the real test begins. That’s because as we alluded to at the top of the post, #1 overall pick Saquon Barkley was injured in Week 3 with a high ankle sprain, which is expected to keep him out between 4-8 weeks. If it’s the latter, that means he would not return until Week 12 after the Giants’ Week 11 bye.

Let’s assume Alex wins the last two regular season games after Barkley’s return. That gets him to four wins. But you need at least six and probably seven to make the playoffs, in which case he’d need to go 3-5 while Barkley is out. It’s doable. Based on his current TW%, we’d expect him to win three out of his next eight games. But it’s not going to be easy. It’s a tough break for Alex who the last time he had the #1 pick (David Johnson, 2017) lost him early to an injury as well.

Finally, at the bottom of the Power Rankings we find Geoff and Samantha, who swapped places this week. But perhaps both have some reason for optimism after reinforcements arrived on the waiver wire this week. Geoff grabbed Barkley’s replacement, Wayne Gallman, who will immediately slide into Matt Breida’s spot in the starting lineup, hoping to fill the gaping hole left by injuries to Tyreek Hill and Derrius Guice. Meanwhile, Samantha grabbed fellow Dukie Daniel Jones who played inspired football for the Giants in Week 3, leading them to a comeback win over the Buccaneers. Samantha’s biggest weakness has been at QB thanks to the subpar play of Baker Mayfield, so perhaps Danny Dimes can do for Samantha’s team what Giants fans hope he will do for their team this season.

Starting to Think Playoffs

It’s still super early, but with nearly a quarter of the regular season in the books, we can start to at least think about the playoffs. To do that, I’m dusting off one of my favorite charts updated with stats gleaned from last season to give you an idea of what your record says about your chances of making the playoffs.

These are the historical probabilities of making a six-team playoff based on the win-loss record of a team at any given point during the season.

In league history, 91% of 3-0 teams have gone to make the playoffs.

To read the chart, simply identify the row with your team’s number of wins and follow that line to the square that matches the number of losses. The percentage you see in that square is the proportion of teams in league history that have had that record and then gone on to make the playoffs.

For example, teams with a 3-0 record have gone on the make the playoffs 91% of the time. And four of those teams won the whole thing. If you’re Josh, you gotta like those numbers. In fact, in the eight-year history of the league, only one of the 11 team owners to start 3-0 has failed to make the playoffs. That’d be Nick in 2014 who started 3-0 but then lost eight straight games before ultimately finishing 4-9. That’s rough.

By comparison, 2-1 teams, though they possess just one fewer win, have just a 49% chance of making the playoffs. And interestingly, their odds are really not all that different from 1-2 teams whose chances lie at 47%. That means, for most of the league, your chances really haven’t changed all that much from where they were at the start of the season. After all, in a 12-team league where six teams make the playoffs, your odds out of the gate are 50%.

As for the 0-3 teams, it’s not as bleak as it seems. In league history, 12 team owners have had the misfortune of an 0-3 start. But of those 12, a respectable three have rebounded to make the playoffs. That includes Brandon in 2016 who reeled off seven straight wins and came up just two points short of a championship. So don’t lose heart.

And I know what you’re thinking. There’s a big, scary 0% by 0-4 teams. And that’s right. No 0-4 team has ever made the playoffs. But that doesn’t mean you’d be mathematically eliminated by any stretch. For one, there just haven’t been that many 0-4 teams (just three in eight years). And second, it should be noted that there have been even worse teams that have made the playoffs, like Nick’s 1-6 team from 2016 that won its last six games to finish 7-6 and would have made a six-team playoff.

In fact, since they both have a 25% chance of making the playoffs, the chances that at least one of Erik or Samantha makes the playoffs is a healthy 44%. So you’d be a fool to count them out already. Or to consider Josh a lock for that reason. This is just a snapshot of how teams have performed historically. There’s always room for new precedents to be set this year.

Looking Ahead to Week 4

This week, several team owners will be jockeying to move up the standings with the leaders going directly at each other. In fact, all six 2-1 team owners will be facing off against each other with Brandon taking on Beth Ann, Jess facing Alex, and Gray squaring off against JT. That means at the end of Week 4, we will have at least three teams with 3-1 records, each with a 68% chance of making the playoffs based on historical precedent. Meanwhile, the losers—those 2-2 teams—will have just a 44% chance. Big games for all.

On the flip side, some of the team owners further down the Power Rankings will have a chance to get a win against similar competition. Samantha (0-3) will take on Nick (1-2) while Erik (0-3) will face off against Geoff (1-2), the latter of whom is already off to a good start with 24 points from Aaron Rodgers on Thursday night. Can Erik and Samantha get off the schneid or will one or both drop to 0-4 for just the fourth time in league history?

Finally, Josh has a chance to push his record to 4-0 in a game against Greco (1-2). If he were to do so, he would be just the fifth team owner to start the season 4-0 and the first to do it in six years. Yeah, it’s been awhile. And as a reminder from the chart above, every 4-0 team has gone on to make the playoffs. 100%.

That’s it for Week 3. Got this one in just under the wire. Hope you enjoyed it and good luck to everyone in Week 4! (Well, except for Beth Ann.)