Week 4 Power Rankings — The Worst League

The Browns are back, baby!

And by “back,” I mean maybe they’re finally here.

Let me back up. You see, the Cleveland Browns entered the season with the fifth-best odds of winning the Super Bowl at 15-1, which is mind-blowing in and of itself. I mean, it’s the Browns. If you woke up from a coma to find out that the Browns were a trendy dark horse to win the Super Bowl—not to mention that the Clippers are now the favorite to win the next NBA title—you’d be forgiven for thinking you’d somehow slipped into an alternate universe.

After all, the Browns haven’t had a winning season since 2007 and haven’t won a playoff game since 1995. In fact, the Browns are one of only four teams in NFL history to have never appeared in a Super Bowl. Never!

And yet a year after going 0-16, they improved to 7-8-1 on the strength of rookies Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb. Then they traded for Odell Beckham Jr. in the offseason. And the hype train was officially on!

All three players were drafted within the first six rounds. Two within the first 15 picks. And the other, Mayfield, was just the fourth QB off the board (ahead of Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott). For reference, in the nine-year history of the league, only once has a Browns player been drafted in the first two rounds and that was Peyton Hillis, selected 17th overall by Terryn in the 2011 draft. So yeah, you could say the level of Browns love this season was a little unprecedented.

Samantha, in particular, was a heavy investor in the Cleveland Browns, drafting three Browns with her first eight picks. Only four other owners drafted at least three skill position players (excluding handcuffs) from the same team, but none invested as early and as often as Samantha. JT’s love of the Eagles, ironically, probably qualifies second with Zach Ertz, Carson Wentz and DeSean Jackson all taken between the fourth and 12th rounds.

That’s probably what prompted me in my draft breakdown to ask whether or not the Browns could take Samantha back to the playoffs. Here’s what I wrote:

Is this team as good as I think it is? Because after going through the draft, I think I would trade my team for Samantha’s straight up. She’s got Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones and James White at RB. All studs though Jones did struggle in Week 1. (Whatever, it’s the Bears.) Then DeAndre Hopkins and Julian Edelman at WR. A high-upside guy at TE (O.J. Howard) and the Bake Show at QB. The depth is maybe questionable, but there are some serviceable guys there as well in Jarvis Landry and Jordan Howard. I really don’t see much of a weakness.
So can this group lead Samantha back to the promised land? If they’re going to do it, it’s going to be a duo of Cleveland Browns leading the way in Chubb and Mayfield. Not to mention Landry who should enter the picture during bye weeks. Currently, the Browns are a trendy pick for the Super Bowl. And I think Samantha just might be as well.

And while I still kinda stand by that statement (okay, maybe I wouldn’t trade records with her right now), there’s no doubt that so far that prediction has been about as good as the Browns. Which is to say not good at all. (Believe me, I heard quite a few expletives in my household directed at Baker Mayfield and O.J. Howard.) Through the first three games, the Browns were just 1-2, including a humiliating 43-13 home loss to the Titans in Week 1. Chubb had been okay. But Mayfield was terrible with games of 9, 15 and 9 points. By comparison, seventh-round pick Dak Prescott had scored as many points in just his first week for Nick.

Entering Week 4, Samantha was 0-3 and in desperate need of a win.

And then, the Browns woke up. The high-powered offense many expected to see finally showed up in a 40-25 defeat of the early-season darling Baltimore Ravens. Chubb in particular looked stout, rushing for 165 yards and 3 TDs on his way to a 35-point fantasy day—the top individual scorer of Week 4 and the third-highest individual Worst League score this season.

But even Mayfield, who had earned himself a spot on Samantha’s bench behind waiver wire pickup Daniel Jones, looked much improved. Though he only scored 15 points, he passed for a season-high 342 yards despite a season-low 30 passing attempts. Jarvis Landry, also on Samantha’s bench, similarly impressed with 167 receiving yards and 16 fantasy points.

This week, Samantha changed her fantasy team name to Dr. StrangeChubb in honor of the man who helped dig her out of that 0-3 hole. I volunteered to help with the cover art, below.

Yes, that is Nick Chubb’s face photoshopped onto Peter Sellers head.

And my favorite part of that new team name is the subtitle, which has way too many characters to include on the official league page, but accurately depicts how one must feel with a roster full of Clevelanders. Sometimes you just have to stop worrying and love the team you’re with.

At least for this week, it all worked out.

The Scoreboard

Gray led all scorers for the second time this season while Josh advanced to 4-0.

Tag, you’re it!

A week after Brandon reclaimed the weekly prize from Gray in Week 3, Gray took it back, scoring a league-high 119 points in Week 4. And a big factor was once again the Patriots D/ST, which scored 23 points. That’s just one point less than the combined point totals of JT’s entire group of RBs and WRs, including Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. It’s a forgettable week for JT whose pass-catchers will look to bounce back in Week 5. Meanwhile, with the 119-67 win, Gray advances to 3-1 for the first time since 2015.

Geoff had his best showing of the season, defeating Erik 109-47. It was his second-straight score in the triple digits and came with the help of waiver wire wonder Wayne Gallman who totaled an unexpected 21 points, including 2 TDs, with Saquon Barkley out with an injury. For Erik, it’s a pretty devastating loss. Not only did he drop to 0-4, but it was the largest margin of defeat (62 points) in a game this season. Outside of Patrick Mahomes and Todd Gurley, the rest of his team scored just 12 points. It was the fewest points in a game this season and the fewest since Jess scored 32 in a Week 9 game against Brandon last year.

No Saquon. No problem. Despite the aforementioned injury to the #1 overall pick, Alex had an impressive bounce back game, defeating Jess 100-78. Despite -2 points from Barkley’s fill-in Mecole Hardman in Alex’s lineup, Chris Godwin saved the day with 29 points on 12 catches for 172 yards and 2 TDs, second-most among all players in Week 4. Despite another big game from her RBs, including 24 from Austin Ekeler who remains a stud for at least one more week, Jess got just 5 points from her pass-catchers, which includes Adam Thielen, Tyler Lockett and Greg Olsen. As a result, it’s surprisingly Alex and not Jess who rises to 3-1.

In the final battle of 2-1 teams, Brandon defeated Beth Ann 90-74 to advance to 3-1 despite a combined 1 point from his defense and kicker. Once again, it was Christian McCaffrey and Cooper Kupp leading the way, the latter of whom now ranks as WR4. Combined with Keenan Allen (WR2), those two (drafted in the fourth and second round, respectively) make up the league’s highest-scoring receiving duo through four weeks, ahead even of the more highly drafted Julio Jones/Odell Beckham Jr. tandem on JT’s team. Beth Ann, meanwhile, had the lowest-scoring week of her season (and her very young career for that matter), getting just 22 points from the trio of Deshaun Watson, Alvin Kamara and Marlon Mack.

As we discussed at the top, Samantha avoided falling to 0-4 with an important 87-62 victory over Nick with another Nick (Chubb), leading the way with 35 points. For Nick, it was Dak Prescott’s first game of fewer than 21 points, scoring just 6 points in a matchup with the Saints. It’s his second-straight game with scoring in the 60s. Both team owners are now 1-3.

Finally, Josh staged a dramatic 84-77 victory over Greco. Clinging to a narrow 3-point lead entering Monday night with only James Conner left to go, Josh looked poised to accept his first defeat with three players left to play for Greco. But after JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyler Boyd and Chris Boswell combined for just 14 points, Josh held on for the win. Notably, it was both Smith-Schuster’s and Boyd’s fewest points scored in a game this season. Josh remains the only undefeated team in the league while Greco drops to 1-3 after her third consecutive week of falling point totals.

Power Rankings

Josh may have the best record in the league, but Brandon scored enough points this week to overtake Josh for the top spot in the Power Rankings. Though it’s a narrow lead (just 0.5 true games), he also continues to lead the league in scoring with 107.8 ppg.

Josh meanwhile remains near the top and is now 4-0, which is some pretty rare air. Only four other teams have ever started the season 4-0 and he’s the first to do so since Terryn in 2013. Of teams that started 4-0, all four advanced to the playoffs, three made the championship game and two won it all, which includes Greco in 2012 and Brandon in 2011.

Last week’s top tier from last week, which in addition to Brandon and Josh included Jess and Beth Ann, continues to remain near the top, but with less separation from the rest of the pack. And now a new interloper joins that tier. His name? Gray!

Yes, Gray moves up three spots into a tie for third place. He’s now scored 100+ points in three straight weeks and is the hottest team over that time span, averaging 119.3 ppg with a TW% of .848. And a big factor has been the play of the Patriots D/ST. For the season, he’s averaging 18.3 ppg from his defense, which is more points than five other team owners are getting from their QBs. We’ll see if he can keep this up. The season-long record is 14.1 ppg and also happens to belong to Gray from his 2011 season.

Also moving up this week is Alex, jumping three spots into sixth place. Despite the absence of Saquon Barkley, Alex had a strong showing this week. And now if news reports are to be believed, it appears Barkley may be back sooner rather than later; reportedly he’s targeting a Week 6 return, which would be quite the turnaround since just last week when we were contemplating an absence that might last until Week 12. Yes, he’s the weakest of the 3-1 teams, but he’s only going to get stronger.

Following Alex are teams with a TW% below .500. Greco and JT both dropped two spots into seventh and ninth, respectively. Though she is 1-3, the computer is still a believer in Greco who rates as better than either of the 2-2 teams below her in the Power Rankings.

Sandwiched between Greco and JT is Geoff. He jumps three spots this week into eighth place, which is a good sign for a team owner that finished with just three wins all of last season. Now he’s already two-thirds of the way there and up to eighth in the Power Rankings, which is the highest he’s been since Week 1 of last year.

After JT, Erik finds himself in 10th place. Despite the 0-4 record, his is not the worst team in the league. Yes, he had a bad week in Week 4, but his team has actually been halfway decent. Unfortunately, he’s now just the fourth team to start 0-4 and the first since Trevor in 2017. It’s not too late, but no 0-4 team has ever bounced back to make the playoffs.

Finally, bringing up the rear are Nick and Samantha, though the gap has been closed between the bottom two and the middle tier. If she were to have a good game in Week 5, we could see a new team owner in last place come this time next week. They are both certainly within striking distance.

Playoff Picture

Four weeks are in the book, which is a quarter of the way through the entire season. That means we finally have enough of a sample size that we can actually start looking ahead to the playoffs. Enter—the Playoff Picture!

What’s the Playoff Picture? For Beth Ann (or anyone who needs a bit of a refresher), the Playoff Picture is my weekly rundown of your playoff chances based on your current record, TW% and remaining schedule.

For a really detailed rundown on the methodology, check out last year’s post around this time, entitled “We’re All Living in a Fantasy Simulation!” It explains everything about how we calculate your probability of winning a game based on your and your opponent’s TW% and then how we use those probabilities to simulate the season 10,000 times.

But the end result is the chart below, which shows your projected record (the average number of wins and losses in 10,000 simulations), your chances of winning the division (the percentage of times your team won the division in those 10,000 simulations) and finally your chances of making the playoffs (the percentage of times your team made the playoffs in 10,000 simulations).

Alright, let’s get to it.

Josh, Brandon, Gray, Beth Ann, Jess and Alex projected to make playoffs in first Playoff Picture.

In the first Playoff Picture, Josh leads all team owners with a projected 10-3 record, a 55% chance of winning the Leaders Division, and a whopping 99% chance to make the playoffs. Which should probably be no surprise considering last week’s graphic, which demonstrated that 4-0 teams have never failed to make the playoffs.

Also contending for the Leaders Division crown are Brandon and Beth Ann, both with a greater than 87% chance of making the playoffs. The computer likes Brandon a little more because he currently has a better TW% and a better record. Of the others in the division, the computer most likes Geoff with a 40% chance to make the playoffs. Despite the fact that he ranks below Greco in the Power Rankings, he currently has one more win in the official standings and a much easier schedule ahead. In fact, Geoff’s remaining schedule ranks as the second-easiest with three games remaining against the two teams in the bottom two of the Power Rankings.

Meanwhile, the Legends Division (which by the way hasn’t won a championship since 2015; get your act together Legends Division), has Gray—with a 3-1 record and third-best TW%—with the best chance of winning the division and a 93% chance of making the playoffs. Jess and Alex are also projected to make the playoffs from that division. Interestingly, despite a worse record than Alex, Jess has the higher probability of making the playoffs, which is due largely to her superior TW% and slightly less difficult schedule compared to Alex’s.

Of the dark horses contending within the Legends Division, the computer gives JT the next best chance with a 15% probability of making the playoffs. Finally, Nick and Samantha have less than a 5% chance.

All of that being said, these percentages are a lot higher and a lot lower than I think the true values really are. There is certainly greater than a 2% chance that I miss the playoffs and likewise for Samantha or Nick that they rebound to make the playoffs.

So why are the numbers so extreme? Two reasons. One—it’s because this is still a pretty small sample size. And the simulations presume that your team stays just as good (or as bad) as it is today. But as we know in fantasy football, things change quickly. And as your TW% improves, so too will your odds of making the playoffs.

And two—the points tiebreaker for teams on the brink currently belongs to Geoff and Alex. So in the event that they tied teams like Greco, JT, Nick, Erik or Samantha in a simulation, Geoff or Alex got the nod over their competitors. But we know that gap can and will be narrowed in the coming weeks. Even Nick, who is currently last in points, needs only 6.1 ppg more over the next nine weeks to catch up to Geoff who is in sixth place.

Case in point, take a look at the Playoff Picture from this time last year. What you’ll notice was that in some respects, the computer was incredibly accurate. Five of the six teams projected to make the playoffs in Week 4 went on to do just that. That included Josh, Jess, Alex, Brandon and Nick. That bodes well for teams near the top right now.

But it wasn’t the case for everyone. Last year at this time, Erik (who was 3-1 and fourth in the Power Rankings; kinda like Gray this year) had a 96% chance of making the playoffs with a projected record of 9-4. But ultimately, he finished 6-7 and missed the playoffs. And he wasn’t even the best 6-7 team. That was JT who also missed the playoffs.

Who took his spot? Samantha, of course. Who claimed the 6-seed and went on to upset Alex and finish in third place last year. What were her playoff odds last year at this time? Less than 1%. In fact, it happened in just 42 out of 10,000 simulations. Instead, she ended up more than doubling her projected 3.4 wins, finishing with a 7-6 record. And that was despite a litany of injuries to her WR corps down the stretch including Emmanuel Sanders, Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr.

Last year at this time, Samantha was 1-3 with a .273 TW%. This year, she’s once again 1-3 with an identical .273 TW%. So doubt owners at the bottom of this Playoff Picture at your own peril. It’s just a snapshot in time and there’s still plenty of time for things to change.

Looking Ahead to Week 5

All division matchups this week! Legends vs. Legends. Leaders vs. Leaders.

The biggest matchup of Week 5 is no doubt the face-off between the top two teams in the Power Rankings—Brandon and Josh. Can Josh run his winning streak to five? Or will Brandon tie him atop the Leaders Division standings at 4-1?

But just as dramatic will be the battle for the Legends Division where Gray and Jess, both currently tied for third in the Power Rankings, will face off. Gray is 6-1-1 all-time against Jess in the regular season with the only loss coming in 2014, which also happened to be the same year Jess won the whole thing. Last year, they tied 75-75.

Other matchups this week include JT vs. Nick, Geoff vs. Greco and Alex vs. Samantha. All three of those games feature 1-3 teams hopeful to take one step closer back to .500, while Alex will hope to get to 4-1 and claim at least a share of the Legends Division lead.

Finally, Erik is still gunning for his first win of the season with a game against Beth Ann. He’s already off to a solid start with 15 points from Todd Gurley on Thursday night.

But whatever your predicament, know that there is still plenty of life left in this fantasy season. After all, if the Browns can do it, so can you. Anything is possible.