Week 11 Power Rankings
No funny intro this week. Just gonna get straight to it.
There’s only two weeks to go, and while three owners have been eliminated, there are still so many team owners with a chance to make the playoffs. So let’s dive in. Herein lies everything you need to know about what you need to do to make the playoffs, plus the fantasy eulogies of the first three team owners eliminated from playoff contention this season.
But first, let’s recap the week…
The Scoreboard
Nick and Samantha upset Josh and Brandon who both fall to 9-2.
After a rough couple of weeks, Gray got back on the winning track. He led all scorers in Week 11, defeating Beth Ann 131-63. This is his first weekly prize since Week 6 but his fourth of the year, which leads all team owners. This time it was a pair of Buffalo Bills leading the way in Josh Allen (33 points) and John Brown (25) with three other players contributing 15 points or more. For Beth Ann, last week I intimated that Deshaun Watson and Alvin Kamara might be able to finally do some damage together. Turns out the only damage that was done was to Beth Ann, herself. The two combined for just 14 points in Watson’s only single-digit game of the season. As a result, it was the largest margin of defeat for any team owner this year.
Nick got a huge win this past week, ending Brandon’s eight-game winning streak in a narrow 99-92 victory. QB play ended up being the difference in the game as Dak Prescott threw for 444 yards and 3 TDs, pouring in 30 points for Nick. Meanwhile, Brandon made the unfortunate decision to bench starter Kyler Murray (26 points) in a difficult matchup against the 49ers and instead started free agent pickup Philip Rivers (12). His four interceptions on Monday night against the Chiefs allowed Nick to hold on for the win. This was Nick’s highest scoring game of the season.
Brandon wasn’t the only one-loss team to go down in Week 11. Josh also came up short, falling to Samantha 94-89. Despite playing without Aaron Jones on bye, Samantha got just enough scoring with seven players totaling between 8 and 14 points. For Josh, Kirk Cousins (22 points) filled in admirably for Russell Wilson. But Josh scored just 7 points at RB no thanks to James Conner (injured) and Kalen Ballage. Going into Monday night, Josh needed 13 points from Harrison Butker to keep his winning streak alive but fell 6 points short. As a result, Samantha now owns the league’s longest current win streak, which stands at five.
As was mentioned on this week’s podcast, JT avenged a 2017 playoff loss, defeating Greco 94-82 despite 0 points from new trade acquisition Damien Williams (injured). Leading candidate for this year’s best draft value, DJ Chark scored 22 points and is now WR4 on the year. In classic JT fashion, he was joined by a pair of WRs, Michael Gallup (14 points) and Julio Jones (9), in leading JT to the win. Meanwhile, Greco lost her sixth straight game despite a respectable 33 points from Le’Veon Bell and Mark Ingram, which is now tied for the worst losing streak since Trevor lost seven straight in 2015.
Speaking of losing streaks, Erik ran his to five this week, dropping an 84-64 game to Alex. Once again, Lamar Jackson (31 points) led the way for Alex along with an increasingly productive receiving corps with Saquon Barkley on bye that includes Chris Godwin (10 points), Courtland Sutton (13) and Randall Cobb (17). Erik’s 64 points were his lowest since Week 4, and he has now scored 86 points or fewer in six straight games.
Finally, the game of the week ended up being the lowest scoring—a tightly contested 75-74 win for Geoff over Jess. Entering Monday night, Geoff had a 21-point lead on Jess with his first-round pick Tyreek Hill yet to play. But after Hill went down with a hamstring injury in the first quarter without scoring a single point, it seemed Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler would be able to easily close the gap, especially after big first halves. Painfully for Jess, they came up just one point short, allowing Geoff to hold on for the win. This is Geoff’s third straight victory and second of two or fewer points this season, having previously beaten Brandon by an eerily similar score of 76-74 in Week 2.
Power Rankings
Gray, Samantha and JT move up the rankings as we near the playoffs.
Despite their losses in Week 11, Josh and Brandon hold on to the two top spots. At 9-2, they can no longer break the record for most wins in a season, but they can tie it. Either would need two more wins to close out the season.
The biggest movers up the Power Rankings this week were Gray, Samantha and JT. Following his third game this season of 130 points or more, Gray moved up one spot into third, passing Jess. Samantha following her defeat of Josh moves past Geoff into sixth and perhaps more importantly advances to 7-4, which is tied for Gray with the best record in the Legends Division. And JT moves past Beth Ann and Erik to climb into ninth, though he is still last in points, averaging 80.6 ppg.
The most critical loss this week was probably for Jess who drops to fourth and is now in a three-way tie at 6-5 with Alex and Geoff. Of course, that’s not counting three players that were eliminated from the playoffs this week—Beth Ann, Erik and Greco. Obviously, they’re not going to get much attention on this blog in the coming weeks given that our attention will shift to the playoffs. (Who knows if they’re reading now?) But let’s give them a little love with a mini autopsy on their season.
Please, bow your heads.
What can we say about Beth Ann?
In her first season in the league, it was a little less trash talk (remember, she introduced herself to the league by saying, “they don’t call me BA for nothin’”) and much more of a dumpster fire. That was thanks to her second-round selection of Antonio Brown. At the time, I think we all knew AB was a risky pick, but no one expected he’d be traded to the Patriots and then released after one game, following allegations of sexual assault.
Beyond Brown, it was a New Orleans Saint who might have done her in (Et tu, Who Dat?)—Alvin Kamara. The second overall pick in the draft missed two games due to ankle and knee injuries and yet was still a disappointment when playing, averaging 11.3 ppg (RB19) despite being picked one spot ahead of Christian McCaffrey (23.5 ppg, RB1). Deshaun Watson in the third round probably justified his selection as did subsequent picks Kenny Golladay (WR6), Marlon Mack (RB12) and Hunter Henry (TE6). But that’s about where the good ended. This team ranked 8th in WR scoring and 10th in RB scoring.
Finally, for a team that really struggled in the draft, she probably leaned on it too much (95% of her scoring came from the draft) with just 44 points from free agency and trade, fewest in the league. She made only four pickups all season—Chris Thompson, Cole Beasley, Jimmy Garoppolo and the Bucaneers D/ST with Beasley being the most productive of the bunch. (Jim Halpert voice) Beasley?!
After a promising 2-1 start that coincided with Kamara’s best two games, the wheels fell off as Beth Ann has gone winless since with her best performance being a tie in Week 6 or perhaps an unlucky 104-115 loss to Alex in Week 8. Despite her 2-8-1 record, her team is a little better by TW%. In their first seasons, Jess, Erik, Terryn, Adan and Jackie all fared worse. Everybody has to start somewhere and at least she can only go up from here.
What can we say about Erik?
Too many quarterbacks. On his interview on the podcast, Erik joked that his decision to draft a record four QBs, despite the fact that he was more than covered at the position having selected Patrick Mahomes in the second round, was a move to secure “four leaders” on his team. Unfortunately, it might have been a case of too many cooks, not enough broth. Or not enough RBs and WRs as it were.
The problem was not really a lack of performance from those QBs, though Ben Roethlisberger did get injured. Ironically, Erik ranks fourth in QB scoring (19.7 ppg) through Week 11, trailing Alex (Lamar Jackson), Josh (Russell Wilson) and Beth Ann (Deshaun Watson). It’s that Erik never got great value for them. He traded away Drew Brees for Sammy Watkins (WR37) and Dante Pettis (WR98), which seemed like a great deal at the time, but was probably just so-so. And he waited far too long to try to move Tom Brady (QB11) who started the season with five games of 20 or more points in the first six weeks before cooling off.
As for the bright spots, Amari Cooper (WR4) was terrific and Phillip Lindsay (RB13) in the fifth round has been a little hit-or-miss, but quietly solid. Latavius Murray (RB25) probably underwhelmed from Mark Ingram expectations, but was really great in the two weeks that Kamara was out. But honestly, that’s about it. Todd Gurley (RB14) disappointed as Erik’s first-round pick and A.J. Green in the seventh round is still yet to play. For a team that started 0-4, that might have been the time to try and move Green while he still had value. But hindsight is 20/20 and perhaps Erik was hoping Green would come back to supercharge his team.
Unfortunately, that never happened. Erik had two tough losses in the first four weeks (losing 92-96 to Josh and 112-132 to Brandon) and then won two immediately after. So there’s an alternate reality where Erik started the season 4-2 instead of 2-4 and then who knows. Regardless, he then deservedly lost five straight and is now 2-9.
This is shaping up to be Erik’s worst season since 2011 when he went 3-10 with a TW% of .241, which was infamously the lowest-scoring team of all time (62.5 ppg). His scoring this season is not nearly that bad (81.9 ppg), but he has two games to try to beat his worst-ever win-loss record. Only one team (Trevor, 2017) has ever finished with two or fewer wins.
Finally, what can we say about Greco?
A second straight down year for the former champ. After starting her career with an unparalleled seven consecutive winning seasons, Greco went 3-10 last year, finishing 11th in the final Power Rankings. This year, she may end up doing worse. Okay, technically her team is much better by TW% than last year’s stinker, which was tied with Erik’s 2011 team as the third-worst all time. But she could easily beat it in losses and is now gunning for the bottom of the Power Rankings for the first time in her career.
Who’s to blame? I’ve gotta give the biggest piece of blame pie to JuJu Smith-Schuster. Or perhaps JuJu’s QB, Ben Roethlisberger. Whether it was the injury to Ben or JuJu’s lack of production without Antonio Brown to take away some of the defensive attention, Smith-Schuster struggled (WR39) despite being selected in the second round ahead of Michael Thomas (WR1), Dalvin Cook (RB2) and Mike Evans (WR2).
And beyond Smith-Schuster, there wasn’t much else at WR to supplant his production. Draft picks spent in the middle to late rounds on Mike Williams, Tyler Boyd and Tyrell Williams left Greco without a single WR inside the top-30. Except for DK Metcalf (WR19). But even he did not merit a start from his fantasy owner until Week 9. Too little, too late. Greco was last in WR scoring with just 18.4 ppg.
On the sunny side, Greco actually got some nice production at RB with Le’Veon Bell (RB16) and Mark Ingram (RB9) both ranking as top-20 backs, though Bell (a first round pick) did underachieve. Austin Hooper was also a really nice pickup in Week 4 (TE2), especially for a team owner that traditionally eschews the waiver wire. Of course—just Greco’s luck—he has succumbed to injury as did Kerryon Johnson in Week 7, which was another tough break for Greco this season. Had Ben Roethlisberger and Kerryon Johnson never been injured, this might have been a very different season for Greco who started 2-3 but has lost six straight games since. Oh well, there’s always next year.
Ashes to ashes. Fantasy dust to fantasy dust.
Playoff Picture
Beth Ann, Erik and Greco have been eliminated from playoff contention.
Josh and Brandon are in. Beth Ann, Erik and Greco have been eliminated. That leaves seven teams battling it for four spots with two weeks to go. So without further ado, here are some burning questions for the playoff race.
Who can clinch this week?
First of all, Gray—a win and he’s in.
Gray (7-4) has got the simplest path to the playoffs. A win over Geoff would clinch it this week, because it would get him to eight wins while simultaneously preventing Geoff from tying him by the end of the season. That leaves just Samantha, Jess and Alex as teams that could possibly tie him with eight wins, which means he’d be a lock.
But also Samantha.
Samantha (also 7-4) would clinch with a win and a loss for either Jess, Alex or Geoff. Perhaps her best bet will be Jess who is most vulnerable in a matchup with Greco, as Jess will be playing without any of her top RBs, which we noted in this week’s trade recap.
Of the two, Gray remains a heavy favorite (> 99%) to make the playoffs. Given his points lead over everyone not named Josh and Brandon, Gray likely needs just one more win and could even lose out provided at least one of the 6-5 teams loses one more game. At that point, he’d still make the playoffs at 7-6 if he can maintain his healthy points lead. Still, there’s a doomsday scenario in which he loses his last two games while Jess, Alex and Geoff all win out. That happened in 24 out of 10,000 simulations.
Samantha, with a huge win over Josh in Week 11, saw the biggest jump in playoff odds this week. She doesn’t have the points advantage Gray does, but she’s certainly in the driver’s seat. And in fact, she now has a 14% chance to win the division and claim a first-round bye. Not bad for a team owner that started 0-3.
What about those 6-5 teams?
There are three of them—Jess, Alex and Geoff.
Of the three, Jess has the significantly better odds. That’s because she’s higher in the Power Rankings and has the easiest schedule remaining with games against Greco and Erik, two team owners that have already been eliminated. She also has more points than Alex or Geoff and would win in the event of a tiebreaker.
But as I stated above, she’s definitely in a danger zone for her this week with Dalvin Cook, Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, David Johnson and Adam Thielen all on bye. With Jordan Howard likely to miss this week’s game, she needs new trade acquisition Miles Sanders to step up, not to mention John Brown. Also, Carson Wentz—now would be the time to start playing better.
If we assume all the team owners with a greater than 90% chance to make the playoffs do so, that leaves Alex and Geoff as the two team owners most likely to battle it out for the last spot. Between those two, the computer likes Alex slightly more. But it’s close. Alex has a 58% chance compared to 49% for Geoff. (If you’re confused as to why those two numbers don’t add up to 100%, it’s because there are possibilities where both of them make the playoffs.)
Alex has the better team and more points scored (he leads Geoff by a razor thin margin of 18 points), but Geoff has the much better schedule. Case in point, there’s no harder road to the playoffs than going through Josh and Brandon, which is what Alex will have to do to make it.
But Geoff’s road isn’t a cakewalk either. He’s got Gray this week and Nick next. Fortunately for Geoff, he’s already off to a good start, getting 17 points from waiver wire pickup Jonathan Williams on Thursday night. Given the fact that teammate T.Y. Hilton got just 1 point for Gray and both Stefon Diggs and Travis Kelce are on bye, Geoff could easily steal this win even with Tyreek Hill on bye. Then it’s a faceoff with Nick in Week 13.
What about the dark horses?
Nick and JT are still alive! Not only that, but Nick’s playoff odds rose this week from 4 to 7% with a huge win over Brandon.
So I know what I’m talking about when I say to heed my warning—don’t sleep on Nick! Last year’s 1 seed has now won three of his last four games and has finished in the top third of the league in scoring in each of the last three weeks. In fact, he’s the hottest team in the league not named Josh or Brandon with a TW% of .778 over that time.
At 4-6-1, Nick may seem like a long shot, but the schedule makes it much more likely than you think. With winnable games against Beth Ann and Geoff, Nick could easily get to 6-6-1. At that point, all he would need is for two of the 6-5 teams to lose out. Which is not unlikely. We’re talking about Jess (whose team is already devastated this week), Alex (who will be the clear underdog in games against Josh and Brandon), and Geoff (who faces the team owner who just dropped 131 points this week and then Nick, himself).
Really, if Alex can’t beat Josh or Brandon. Then Gray defeats Geoff this week. And Nick wins out. He’s in (assuming JT loses at least one more game). That’s not an unrealistic scenario. Remember, the points for Nick don’t matter because of the tie.
Lastly, there’s JT who at 5-6 has a 2% chance of making the playoffs. Given that he’s last in scoring to anyone that matters by a country mile, he needs to win out. If JT could beat Erik and Josh, that gets him to 7-6. At which point, he’d have to hope, like Nick, that two of the 6-5 teams lose out, allowing him to sneak in as the 6 seed.
The computer likes Nick more than JT largely because of the schedule. The fact that Nick plays Geoff in Week 13 is an advantage because it allows him to knock out a competitor. Meanwhile, JT having to play Josh in Week 13 is a major hurdle. But if he can clear it, it’s possible that JT advances.
In fact, speaking of the longest of long shots, JT could actually still win the division and claim the 2 seed and a first-round bye. If he can get to 7-6, score an ungodly number of points, and all the teams ahead of him lose out, then he’d win the Legends Division. And with two weeks to go, you gotta love that.
Looking Ahead to Week 12
As Gray said in the group chat, “this week is just huge.” So let’s preview the matchups.
The most consequential game of the week is Gray (7-4) vs. Geoff (6-5). Remember, a win for Gray and he clinches a playoff spot. But Gray will be without Stefon Diggs and Travis Kelce (both on bye) but will be playing newly acquired receiver Tyler Lockett. Meanwhile, Geoff will be without Tyreek Hill (bye), Evan Engram (foot) and Matt Breida (ankle). Gray is 8-2-1 against Geoff all time, including a win in the semifinals of the inaugural 2011 playoffs. Previously, Gray defeated Geoff 132-99 in Gray’s highest scoring game this season. Now would be a perfect time for Geoff to exact some revenge.
Next up is Josh (9-2) vs. Alex (6-5). Josh will be without Christian Kirk, Harrison Butker (both on bye) and James Conner (shoulder) who aggravated an injury in Week 11, though he does roster his handcuff Jaylen Samuels. Alex has no players on bye, but will continue to miss Devonta Freeman (foot). Luckily, it appears George Kittle (knee) and Saquon Barkley (shoulder) will return from injury. Josh is 5-3 against Alex all time, though Alex did defeat Josh in the semifinals of the 2015 playoffs en route to a championship. In their previous matchup this season, Josh won 129-115.
Another battle between husband and wife as Brandon (9-2) takes on Samantha (7-4). Much of this matchup already played out on Thursday night in Houston. With both team owners in attendance, the fantasy box score ended in a 27-27 tie. As for the rest of their players this week, Brandon will be without Kyler Murray, while Samantha will be at full strength, minus Jordan Howard (shoulder). Brandon is 3-1 against Samantha all time, including a win in the semifinals of last year’s playoffs. When they played earlier this season, Brandon won 76-71.
Huge game for Jess (6-5) this week as she takes on Greco (2-9). Jess will be without nearly her entire backfield with Dalvin Cook, Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler and David Johnson, plus Adam Thielen all on bye. Greco has no players on bye but will miss JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) and Austin Hooper (knee). Here’s hoping she realizes soon enough to pull Smith-Schuster from her lineup. Jess is 7-4 against Greco all time, having defeated her in the semifinals in 2014 en route to a championship. Jess won their previous matchup this season 103-99.
JT (5-6) hopes to keep winning this week in a game against Erik (2-9). JT will be without Damien Williams (bye) but is otherwise fully healthy. Erik will be without Patrick Mahomes and Sammy Watkins (bye), plus Alshon Jeffery (ankle). Still no A.J. Green either. JT is 7-5 against Erik all time. That includes two playoff matchups in the consolation game, which they have split with Erik finishing third in 2012 and JT finishing third in 2017. Interestingly, neither has appeared in the playoffs without the other. Previously, Erik beat JT 86-54, one of Erik’s only wins and JT’s lowest-scoring game this season.
Finally, can Nick’s improbable comeback continue? This week, Nick (4-6-1) takes on Beth Ann (2-8-1). Nick will be without Kenyan Drake (bye), but hopes to get Robert Woods back who was out for personal reasons last week, though he may not get the start. Beth Ann will be without Hunter Henry (bye), but does get Sterling Shepard back if she chooses to start him. Of course, we all know she hasn’t been the most active lately as she started an inactive Marlon Mack (hand), whose team played Thursday. In their only meeting earlier this season, Nick and Beth Ann tied 84-84.
Good luck to all in Week 12 and I’ll see you in the group chat!
