Jess Sells Lockett Amid Bye Week Blues
Gray and Jess reached an agreement on a deal Thursday that sent John Brown and Miles Sanders to Jess in exchange for fourth-round pick Tyler Lockett. Of course, where a player was drafted doesn’t mean much by the time we get to Week 12. But let’s talk about the draft for a second.
Because when you’re drafting players in September, there are a lot of variables that one considers. Track record, draft pedigree, talent, opportunity, maybe even whether a given player’s first or last name fits neatly into a well-crafted pun for your fantasy team name. (I know I do.)
But one thing that often goes unnoticed is that player’s scheduled bye week. Does it really matter when it is? Should you pass up a player you want in the draft just because they have the same bye week as another player you already drafted? And if you do end up drafting several players with the same bye week, maybe that’s a good thing. Sure you’ll take it on the chin for one week, but you’ll be stronger all the other weeks while everyone else is playing at less than full strength.
Of course, that’s an easy thing to say in Week 1. It’s a much more difficult pill to swallow when the bill comes due in Week 12. And that’s what happened to Jess this week.
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a more disastrous bye week schedule than the one she faces this upcoming week. Five of her top six draft picks are all on bye this week, which includes Adam Thielen and all four of her stud RBs—David Johnson, Dalvin Cook, Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. She only drafted one other RB, and ironically he’s not even good enough to get the start for Jess this week. (That’s Dion Lewis, averaging 0.9 ppg.)
I’m sure a few weeks ago she saw this perfect storm coming. But when she was 5-2 and #1 in the Power Rankings with a 99% chance to make the playoffs, it probably seemed like she could easily afford a loss in Week 12. At one time, I identified her on the podcast as the team to beat this season.
My how quickly things can change. Over the last four weeks, she’s 1-3, averaging just 82.0 ppg with a TW% (.364) that ranks ninth over that time. We’ve talked about how the Chargers backfield has given her headaches, but now suddenly David Johnson is not even deserving of a flex spot. And in Week 12, she doesn’t even have the luxury of starting any of those players.
So with the trade deadline looming, it seemed like a 2-for-1 deal was inevitable. And that’s exactly what happened with Jess trading away her top receiver and team namesake, Tyler Lockett (WR7) for a package that includes a slight downgrade at WR in John Brown (WR13), plus Miles Sanders (RB29)—the RB she so desperately needs for Week 12. Maybe even for longer than that given the recent performance of David Johnson.
For Gray, he may have finally gotten back the WR1 he traded away in Mike Evans earlier this season. Lockett has not been as good as Evans (WR2), but as long as he’s healthy, Lockett is clearly a WR1, especially in an offense led by MVP-candidate Russell Wilson. His playoff lineup should now feature Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette at RB with Tyler Lockett, Stefon Diggs and probably T.Y. Hilton at WR, though the play of the latter was less than inspired Thursday night. Still, he’s got solid depth at flex with Brandin Cooks and Devin Singletary available, not to mention a surging Deebo Samuel. And don’t forget about that Travis Kelce guy at TE too. I like this lineup a lot, especially with Lockett—an elite, dependable WR in the fold—which was the key piece it was probably missing.
Also, it’s worth noting as Gray did in the group chat that he was anxious to diversify his assets away from Buffalo Bills. With Josh Allen and Devin Singletary already on the roster, Gray probably felt uncomfortable about potentially starting three Bills in the playoffs, especially considering that schedule gets tougher. Starting in Week 14, the Bills play the Ravens, Steelers and Patriots in the fantasy playoffs, which are all minus matchups for offenses.
In the end, Jess made a deal with the devil, which is not to say that Gray is the devil. He’s actually helping Jess in Week 12 at a time when she’s a direct competitor for the first-round playoff bye. It’s just a deal you hope you never have to make—trading away quality for quantity. It’s the same kind of deal that JT, Erik and Geoff all made at one point last season. And it’s why depth is so important, especially in the bye weeks. In fact, this deal probably doesn’t happen if Jess had at least one of Cook, Gordon or Ekeler available for Week 12.
But sometimes you have to face facts. The truth is that if she were to lose this week and both Alex and Geoff were to win, she would no longer control her own destiny. She’d be 6-6 and they’d be 7-5 with just one game to go. And if they won their Week 13 games, it wouldn’t matter how many points Jess had over them in the tiebreaker. She’d be on the outside looking in. And having Tyler Lockett on her roster at that point wouldn’t do much good if she’s not in the playoffs.
So I applaud her for making what was probably a very tough deal. And Gray too for taking advantage. Who knows? These two might be facing off again in the near future.
Lastly, I wanted to provide a few notes on league activity now that the trade deadline has passed. This year, the hot stove was a little cooler relative to previous seasons. Specifically, there were five trades in total, which is half of last year’s total and the fewest trades in a season since 2016.
That being said, Jess was particularly active this season in the trade market. Out of five total trades, three have involved Jess—a career high for her. In fact, she made as many trades this season as she did over the last four years combined.
In total, she traded away Tyler Lockett, Gardner Minshew, Sammy Watkins and Dante Pettis and in exchange received Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, John Brown and Miles Sanders. Not bad when you look at it in aggregate, though Brees is now on JT’s roster and Lockett is no doubt the best player of the bunch.
In addition to Jess, Gray and JT also made multiple trades this season. They were joined by Brandon, Erik and Josh who all made one trade. Team owners who did not make trades this season included Alex, Geoff, Samantha, Beth Ann, Nick and Greco. From that group, Greco has not made a trade since 2016 while neither Samantha nor Beth Ann has ever made a trade, though both are relatively new to the league, and in Samantha’s case, it was not without trying (as was noted on last week’s podcast).
With two weeks to go in the regular season plus the playoffs, data for acquisitions and activations are not final. But it appears that generally speaking activity is down slightly. Brandon, Gray and Josh, in particular, have seen the biggest drops relative to their average behavior, while Geoff and Alex have seen the biggest increases.
All that being said, I don’t think team owners are necessarily more disinterested this season. It could just be that a savvier league relies more on the draft, which leaves less to be acquired on the waiver wire. For me, personally, I’m getting an unprecedented 82% of my scoring this season from the draft compared to my historical average of 64%. And I’m not the only one. Draft scoring is up from 76% league-wide to 82% this year.
Now with the trade deadline in the past, the team you have now is pretty much the team you’ll be riding through the stretch run, pending any final waiver wire adds. Which means from here on out, it’s just a race to the finish.
Giddy up!
