Brandon Bets on Beckham
JT hopes his team is still playing in Week 14. Brandon hopes his is not.
Those were the motivations for a deal Thursday as Brandon sent fifth-round pick and Chiefs RB Damien Williams to JT in exchange for second-round pick and Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr. With less than one week until the fantasy trade deadline, this is just the fourth trade this season.
For Brandon, it’s a bet that Beckham can rebound from a poor start to deliver on the promise many had expected from him and the Browns at the start of the season. But needless to say, it has not gone well in Cleveland. Despite being drafted 13th overall in this year’s fantasy draft, Beckham ranks as WR31 through the first 10 weeks of the season, averaging just 7.2 ppg with only one receiving TD on the year. Entering Week 11, Brandon’s free agent pickup this week, Darius Slayton, had more points and five times as many TDs this season as Beckham.
But Beckham is still Beckham. He’s an elite talent who still ranks 11th in targets with the fifth-most in Week 10. If he and Baker Mayfield can figure out their on-field chemistry, the schedule sets up for a nice finish with only plus matchups remaining for WRs including games against the Dolphins, Bengals and Cardinals. At the very least, he’s certainly due for some touchdown regression.
On the other side of things, JT was dying for a RB. His was an extreme case of an imbalanced roster. Like the guy at the gym who always skips leg day, JT routinely opts out of RBs in favor of WRs. And that was especially the case this year. (Though in defense to him, he kinda didn’t have a choice this year, drafting from the 12th position.) Still, after selecting Julio Jones and Odell Beckham with his first and second pick, he didn’t get around to selecting a RB until the last pick of the third round, when he grabbed David Montgomery (RB22 on the season). His other RB options this season have been limited to Duke Johnson, Peyton Barber, Rex Burkhead and only recently Kareem Hunt. Not exactly murderer’s row.
It’s no surprise then that JT has been last in RB scoring with just 15.0 ppg, which is the lowest this season and just 1.0 ppg better than Geoff’s LeVeon-less squad last year. But by comparison, he is really strong at WR where he has been getting 24.9 ppg from the position, second-most in the league. Which is really more in spite of Beckham than because of him and mostly thanks to Julio Jones and DJ Chark, both top-10 WRs this season.
As a result, JT’s roster was an ideal candidate to swap a WR for a RB, especially considering he was desperate for the latter and flush with depth at the former. In addition to Jones and Chark, Allen Robinson and Michael Gallup are solid options.
Enter Damien Williams. I’ll break some news here and reveal that I came to JT with the trade offer we quickly agreed to. If you look at the current production, Beckham and Damien Williams are incredibly even. Williams is RB36 on the year, averaging 7.5 ppg in the eight games he’s played, which is slightly more than Beckham on a points per game basis. In recent weeks particularly, Williams is seeing an uptick in both his role and production with at least 100 yards from scrimmage or a TD in each of his last three games, averaging 11.7 ppg over that time. Just last week, LeSean McCoy was a healthy scratch, potentially an indication that Williams is wrestling control of this job away from McCoy.
Still, the Chiefs backfield has been incredibly frustrating this season with Williams, McCoy and Darrel Williams all taking turns as the lead back. And even when he has had the reins, Damien Williams has been noticeably inefficient (aside from one 91-yard run in Week 9).
Ultimately, I think this one comes down to talent vs. opportunity. There’s no doubt that Odell Beckham is the more talented player of the two. He was a second-round pick for a reason. But Damien Williams is probably in the better situation. As long as he has the starting job, he’s in a better position to score each week, especially with Patrick Mahomes back and throwing him passes out of the backfield. (Man, if only Mahomes could be the one throwing passes to Beckham.)
With three games left in the regular season, JT (4-6) probably needs to win out. Or at the very least go 2-1 and hope for some of the teams ahead of him (Alex and Geoff) to lose. If Damien Williams can give him a spark at the RB position and he can say good riddance to Beckham at the same time, then maybe he can sneak his way into the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Brandon (9-1) has already clinched a playoff spot and is now just hoping to outlast Josh for the #1 overall seed. To him, Odell Beckham doesn’t have to be the guy JT drafted back before the season started. He just has to be a flex option with the kind of upside that can help him come playoff time.
For both team owners, this was an easy bet worth making.
