Week 9 Power Rankings
Nine weeks are in the books!
The season is flying by fast. The autumn leaves are starting to fall and the weather has turned colder. Another two singers were revealed on The Masked Singer. (I had a feeling Raven-Symoné was Black Widow and now the betting markets are speculating that Victor Oladipo might be Thingamajig. Could you imagine?!) All of which means there’s no time to waste.
With the height of the bye weeks upon us, I’m not going to waste any more time on the intro. By the time you’re reading this, the games have started anyway, so let’s get right to it. Got some great content for you this week, so let’s jump right in.
The Scoreboard
Josh and Brandon led the way with 128 and 127 points, respectively, in wins over Gray and Jess.
In Week 9, three teams at the top of the Leaders Division (Josh, Brandon and Geoff) got big wins over their rivals from the Legends. While three playoff hopefuls from the Legends Division (Samantha, JT and Nick) scored crucial victories over teams at the bottom of an increasingly divided Leaders Division.
Josh led all scorers with 128 points, ending Gray’s three-game winning streak. It was the Mike Evans revenge game as Gray’s former second-round pick scored 24 points against him, his third-highest total of the season. Meanwhile, the player Gray acquired in the deal with Josh, Travis Kelce, totaled just 6 points on 62 yards receiving. As for the other players involved in their Week 6 deal, Mark Andrews (2 points) and the Patriots D/ST (3) came up short, the latter of which had its lowest point total of the season. But at least they got the start for Josh. Brandin Cooks remains out with a concussion for Gray as did T.Y. Hilton (not involved in the deal) with a calf injury. Ultimately, Russell Wilson more than made up for any of Josh’s deficiencies. The Seahawks QB totaled 39 points, leading Josh to the win, while throwing for 378 yards and 5 TDs and is now QB1 on the season.
As was recapped on this week’s excellent Brandon-less podcast, Brandon defeated Jess 127-77. Christian McCaffrey scored 34 points and continues to make his case for fantasy MVP, leading all players (including QBs) through nine weeks in average scoring with 24.6 ppg. For Jess, Tyler Lockett poured in 27 points, but it was not nearly enough. Notably, a benched Melvin Gordon outscored Austin Ekeler 22-9. As she pointed out on the pod, it wouldn’t have made a difference in the outcome, but it’s the third-straight week Jess has started the wrong Chargers RB. Brandon is now 9-1 against Jess all-time.
Geoff defeated Alex 82-76 to claw his way back into the thick of the playoff hunt. It was an impressive, scrappy performance from Geoff who got key contributions from Adrian Peterson (12 points) and A.J. Brown (8) with Michael Thomas on bye. Leading by 10 entering Monday night, Geoff and Evan Engram held on to get the win despite Alex still having #1 overall pick Saquon Barkley yet to play. Unfortunately, Barkley underwhelmed, scoring just 8 points to Engram’s 4, allowing Geoff to hold on for the win. Both are now 4-5 and tied for the sixth and final playoff spot. As for the all-important points tiebreaker, they are separated by just 22 points on the season.
Among the winners from the Legends division, JT led the way with 92 points. In Gardner Minshew’s swan song, the Jock Strap King totaled just 7 points, but JT nevertheless got meaningful contributions from David Montgomery (19 points), the Cowboys D/ST (19), Zach Ertz (16) and Duke Johnson (13). I’m sure it was a welcome, if bittersweet, breakout for the Philadelphia Eagle and fourth-round pick as it was just his second double-digit score of the season. As for his opponent Beth Ann, she continued to struggle missing several key starters, playing without her first, second and seventh-round picks in Alvin Kamara, Antonio Brown and Sterling Shepard. She hasn’t won a game since Week 3.
Samantha defeated Greco 70-64 in a game that was even closer than the final score indicated. Clinging to an 11-point lead entering Sunday night, Samantha got an additional 6 points from Julian Edelman. With Mark Ingram facing off against the dominant Patriots defense, it seemed the win was assured. But as the Ravens somewhat surprisingly took the Patriots to task, Ingram piled up the points, closing the gap to just 6 points. On the Ravens last true possession of the game (before the kneel downs), Ingram got two rushes from inside the five-yard-line, but was stopped short at the one both times. Ultimately, Lamar Jackson ran it in for a TD, but had it been Ingram, that score would have made the difference for Greco. The win is now Samantha’s fifth in her last six games.
Finally, don’t look now but Nick defeated Erik 83-71 and is now 3-5-1, which is just a half game back of the 6 seed in the playoffs with four games to go. With Joe Mixon, Robert Woods and Calvin Ridley on bye, Nick got a much-needed 13 points from Ronald Jones in his first start of the season (for Nick). Meanwhile, team namesake Patrick Mahomes can’t get back fast enough for Erik. With both Mahomes and Todd Gurley (bye) out in Week 9, Erik’s 71 points were the fewest he’s scored this season.
Power Rankings
Josh is beginning to distance himself from the pack with a 10 game lead in true games on Gray.
With the most points in Week 9, Josh strengthened his hold on the top spot in the Power Rankings, improving his TW% to .712. That’s the best TW% we’ve seen since Josh started the year with a TW% of .750 through Week 2. Obviously, that was a smaller sample size then. So to get back to the .700s in Week 9 is indicative of how strong Josh’s team has become.
As for one of the biggest movers this week, Brandon jumped two spots to third, cementing himself among a tier that I would put just below Josh that includes Gray, Jess and Alex. Those five have remained near the top since Week 6 and continue to do so for a fourth-straight week.
In the middle tier, Geoff and Samantha continue to jockey back and forth, swapping spots this week for sixth place. Beth holds pat at eighth. And JT jumps two spots to ninth. Aside from his controversial trade with Jess earlier in the season, we’ve neglected to cover JT very much because—despite his record, which is now 4-5—he’s remained near the bottom of the rankings. But suddenly, I’m wondering if JT could have some late-season magic in him as he’s been better than both Gray and Jess over the last two weeks and better than Alex over the last three.
Finally, the bottom tier consists of Erik, Nick and Greco. Erik despite the loss to Nick remains in 10th while Nick closes some ground on him, moving up to 11th. And lastly, Greco drops to 12th, following a disastrous Week 9. It’s her second week with the lowest score of the week in the last three.
Playoff Picture
Samantha moves up to the 5 seed. Beth Ann, Erik and Greco can no longer win the division.
With just four weeks to go, I’ve added a new feature to the Playoff Picture. The numbers in superscript next to the names of the players at the top of the Playoff Picture indicate the seed that each team owner would earn were the playoffs to start today. As you can see, Josh and Gray would get the top two seeds (along with the first-round bye). Brandon and Jess would be third and fourth. And with Alex’s loss to Geoff and Samantha’s win over Greco, Samantha now has the better record and would claim the 5 seed, leaving Alex with the 6 seed.
Three other team owners have a 9% or greater chance of making the playoffs including Geoff (46%), JT (18%) and Nick (9%). Meanwhile, Beth Ann, Erik and Greco are all still in the hunt, though they have now been officially eliminated from contention for the division championships. That’s because with fewer than three wins, none can get to the eight wins that Josh and Brandon currently have with just four games to go.
With all that in mind, here are the burning questions I have for this week.
Can Josh or Brandon go 12-1?
Both team owners are now 8-1, joining Gray from 2011 as the only teams to ever go 8-1 to start the season. Nobody has ever started 9-1. I repeat, nobody. If either team owner can win next week, he would own the record for the best start to the season in league history.
But even larger looms the possibility of going 12-1. It’s never happened before in league history. The best record ever is 11-2, which Gray has done twice (2011, 2016). But never has an owner gone 12-1. Down the stretch, Josh and Brandon would need to go 3-1 to tie it and 4-0 to break it. Of the two, the computer thinks Josh is the better bet with the better team by TW% and easier schedule, including three games reamining against teams in the bottom half of Power Rankings.
Has Josh entered Thanos territory?
Speaking of Josh, with his second weekly prize of the season and his fourth-straight game of 100+ points, it’s officially time to ask whether or not Josh has entered Thanos territory. And by that I mean: Is Josh now the dominant team in the league?
It certainly seems so. Since the trade for Mike Evans and the Patriots D/ST, Josh is 4-0 with a true record of 40-4 and a scorching TW% of .909. He’s also averaging a league-high 119.5 ppg, which is 15 points more than the next closest competitor. Over that same time period, he leads the league in scoring at WR and D/ST and is second at RB and K. (I see you, Harrison Butker.) His QB scoring is third-best. The only weakness is TE, but even still he’s only getting 3.5 ppg fewer than Gray who has Travis Kelce in his lineup. Personally, I continue not to love Derrick Henry, James Conner and any of his WRs not named Mike Evans, but it’s hard to argue with the results.
So, is he Thanos good? For the season, not yet. But over the last four weeks, actually kinda yes. He has a better TW% and is getting more scoring than Alex did last season. In fact, Alex saw a similar jump in production at around this same time last year. Here’s a look at Alex’s production through the first seven weeks of 2018 and then the last six.
Weeks 1-7: 3-4, .714 TW% (3rd PR), 104.3 ppg
Weeks 8-13: 6-0, .886 TW% (1st PR), 126.8 ppg
Now here’s Josh’s splits, with the cutoff changed to Week 6 when he made the trade.
Weeks 1-5: 4-1, .555 TW% (4th PR), 92.4 ppg
Weeks 6-9: 4-0, .909 TW% (1st PR), 119.5 ppg
Alex was better earlier. But Josh’s improvement has been more pronounced, even if over a smaller time frame. Specifically, Josh’s TW% has jumped +.354 compared to +.172 for Alex. And likewise, Josh’s scoring has increased by +27.1 ppg compared to +22.5 ppg for Alex. So trust me that the season-long numbers aren’t as good, but if he can keep this up, he might be able to reach Thanos level soon enough.
Even still, this is Josh’s fourth week atop the Power Rankings this season, most in the league, and he now leads it by the widest margin this year. In a season in which several team owners have taken turns at the top (notably Brandon, Jess and Josh with Gray and Alex not far behind), we may finally have a real frontrunner.
With four weeks to go, the playoffs are wide open.
With a win in Week 10, Josh and Brandon could clinch the first playoff spots. Gray still has the inside track on the 2 seed and a first-round bye. And Jess, while she has lost two in a row and has yet to top 81 points since Week 6, is still in good shape. Despite a TW% of just .364 over the last three weeks, she’s a game up on Alex and Geoff with a healthy points lead (+85) over Samantha. Those four teams are in really good shape.
But as for the rest of the league, it’s anyone’s game.
Alex has lost the inside track to Samantha who now has the best record of the playoff hopefuls at 5-4. But Alex and Geoff are not far behind at 4-5, not to mention JT, also 4-5. Even Nick is just a half game back of those three at 3-5-1. Those five (Samantha, Alex, Geoff, JT and Nick) are in serious contention for the playoffs. And the long shots (Beth Ann, Erik and Greco) are far from eliminated. Take the worst of that bunch—Greco with a 2-7 record who is 10th in points. She is still just two games back of current 6 seed, Alex, with four games to go. That’s more than doable.
Don’t believe me? There are more than a few historical instances where a team has come from behind in the last four weeks to make the playoffs. Or at least they would have had a six-team playoff existed.
For example, in 2012, JT and Brandon were in bad shape with four weeks to go, 10th and 11th respectively in the official standings. JT was in a five-way tie for the would-be sixth playoff spot, but last in points. And Brandon was tied for the worst record in the league at 3-6. Nevertheless, both rebounded to make the playoffs. Brandon didn’t even have to run the table to do so, going 3-1 down the stretch and finishing 6-7, which would have been good enough to make the playoffs.
More recently, Jess and Nick both found themselves outside the top-6 of the standings in 2016 and yet both would have made a six-team playoff. Jess overcame Erik who was also 4-5, but with more points. Whereas Nick climbed out of 11th place with a 3-6 record to make a hypothetical six-team playoff at 7-6. In fact, his comeback was especially notable for the fact that it started a couple weeks prior when he was 1-6. Impressively, he won his last seven games to close out the season.
This year, Nick himself may be repeating history. After starting 1-5-1, Nick is now on a two-game winning streak. If he can keep it going, he could potentially one-up his season from 2016 and get all the way to 7-5-1 this year.
As I said, it’s still anyone’s game.
Did JT win the Carson Wentz for Gardner Minshew trade?
Actually, yes. But also, no.
With Gardner Minshew losing his job to Nick Foles this week, it’s time to properly evaluate what was easily this season’s most controversial trade. And to this point, Gardner Minshew has actually been better, outscoring Wentz 74-64 over the last five weeks and winning three out of those five match-ups head-to-head with Wentz.
Of course, moving forward, Minshew may be riding the bench with Foles getting his starting job back. We didn’t really consider this as a possibility at the time the trade went down. But we should have. And meanwhile, Wentz has a nice schedule down the stretch with games against the Dolphins, Giants, Redskins and Cowboys from Weeks 13-16.
So yes, JT won the trade while both players were starting. But moving forward, Wentz should easily win the trade for the season. Ironically, however, JT should be fine at QB as he picked up Drew Brees, the QB Jess once traded for but then dropped after a thumb injury. And in fact, it’s entirely possible that Brees may be the best QB of the bunch, better even than Wentz.
So the battle between Jess and JT over QB is not really over. It’s only getting started.
Looking Ahead to Week 10
We’re in the home stretch of the season. So truly, every game is important.
But I’m going to say that the game of the week is the one between Geoff and JT. Both team owners are 4-5, which means somebody’s going to be 5-5 after this one’s over. Both team owners are among the playoff hopefuls, and a win would not only help the winner, but it would directly hurt his competitor vying for that same spot. JT is 11-4 against Geoff all time.
As was mentioned previously, wins for Josh or Brandon would lock up a playoff spot with three weeks to go. Brandon will take on Gray in a matchup of two top-three teams in this week’s Power Rankings. Brandon is 3-5 against Gray in the regular season, but notoriously he’s 2-0 against him in the playoffs with those wins coming in the 2011 championship game and the 2016 semifinals in which Brandon upset Gray’s greatest team of all time.
Josh will hope to lock up his playoff spot against Nick, who is hoping to continue his comeback. Josh is 3-2 against Nick all time. Both are on winning streaks of at least two games, though Josh’s is much longer at four. He’ll go for a fifth straight on Sunday.
Finally, three team owners currently seeded in the playoffs will hope to maintain their standing against teams in the bottom fourth of the Playoff Picture. That includes Jess vs. Beth Ann, Samantha vs. Erik and Alex vs. Greco. All three need a win, but Alex is probably the most desperate of the favorites. He’ll need to reverse his luck against Greco as she’s 6-3 against him all time, including a win in the title game of her 2012 championship.
With four weeks to go and the most teams on bye this season, all will be tested in Week 10. Now’s the time to keep your eye on the prize and get the wins you need to cement your place in the playoffs. If you do so, you may soon be writing your name in the record books as well.
Let’s get it!
