Week 13 Power Rankings
Well, that was a wild finish.
Nick held strong atop the standings joining Brandon as a division winner. Alex swapped seeds with Jess. Josh demolished JT. And Greco played spoiler allowing Samantha to slip into the playoffs. But before we say goodbye to JT, Erik, Gray, Trevor, Greco and Geoff, we’re going to give them and the 2018 season a proper sendoff.
Given that this is the last Power Rankings of the season, we’re going to do things a little differently this week. We’re disposing of the usual long, rambling introduction so that we can get straight to the results of Week 13. Then I promise we’ll get to the fun stuff at the end of this week’s post, including some regular season awards and a recap of the year.
If you’ve already been eliminated and would prefer to skip straight to that part, well then screw you. I spend a lot of time on these write-ups just to have you skim through them. Just kidding! You do you. I won’t hold a grudge. Or will I? I won’t. 🤞
The Scoreboard
Josh and Samantha advanced to the playoffs as JT and Gray were eliminated.
Well, that was an anti-climactic way to end the season. After drawing to a close the highest-scoring season of all-time (breaking the previous record by 529 points), Week 13 ended up being quite the dud. Teams averaged just 78.5 ppg this week, which was the fewest points scored in 24 weeks, dating back to Week 1 of last season. For the first time this year, just one team owner scored over 100 points.
Of course, you can probably guess without looking that team owner was Alex who hit triple digits for the sixth straight week. Not coincidentally, Alex is riding a league-high six-game winning streak following a 108-86 defeat of Brandon, powered in part by his beloved Phillip Lindsay’s career 27-point day. However, in a game between the league’s top two teams, Brandon was operating at less than full strength, playing without his first- and second-round picks after an injury to Melvin Gordon caused him to sit out while video of Kareem Hunt assaulting a woman resulted in Hunt’s release from the team. Yikes! To say things can change quickly is an understatement. New strategy: Don’t draft terrible humans.
Alex’s victory, which secured him his league-leading fourth weekly prize of the year, ultimately lifted him to the 3-seed after Erik defeated Jess 95-83—Todd Gurley’s final bow before bowing out for the playoffs. Meanwhile Nick, by defeating Geoff 92-70, kept it rolling with his fourth straight win and improved his record to a league-best 10-3, clinching the division and locking up the 1-seed in the playoffs.
But in the week’s most anticipated match-up, it was Josh who quickly ran away with the victory, leaving very little drama in an 85-47 blowout of JT. That was despite lackluster days for some of Josh’s key guys. If I told you Josh was going to get a combined 21 points from his RBs and WRs, you would have thought he was for sure going to lose. But Patrick Mahomes, as usual, saved the day with 32 points while kicker Justin Tucker provided 17. Those two alone would have been enough to top JT who got disappointing games from several studs including Andrew Luck (8 points), Sony Michel (6) and Julio Jones (1) as well as Kerryon Johnson who had to sit this one out due to injury. The truth is JT’s lowest scoring output of the season came at the worst possible time. He hadn’t scored fewer than 92 points since Week 5.
With Josh’s win, that left just one final wildcard spot in the playoffs. By defeating Trevor 74-56, Samantha improved her record to 7-6 and gave herself the opportunity she needed. That left the matchup between the league’s all-time leader in wins, points and TW% (Gray) and one of this season’s worst teams (Greco). Of course, Greco pulled off the upset, defeating Gray by a score of 77-69 behind 21 points for Antonio Brown. Gray had one last shot on MNF, but ultimately Josh Adams came up eight points short. This is the second straight year Gray missed the playoffs by a handful of points as last season he came up 13 points short of the lead for the final wildcard spot, which ultimately went to Erik.
The Power Rankings
Here they are! The final Power Rankings of the season.
Alex finishes the year with a TW% that ranks 2nd all-time. Geoff’s ranks 96th (out of 96).
Alex wins the regular season going 113-29-1 on the year. That makes his TW% .794, which ranks 2nd all-time, trailing only Gray’s team from 2016 that went 115-27-1 (.808 TW%). Truly a historic season that will go down as an all-timer in the record books (or at least my spreadsheet). Hats off to the commish. 👏👏👏
Despite losing his last three matchups, Brandon put up enough points to narrowly surpass Josh for second place. This is his fourth top-2 finish in the Power Rankings in eight years. Josh, who started the year in first place scoring 137 points in Week 1, finishes third. Both are great teams. Historically, they rank in the top-10 (out of 96 teams) by TW%. In terms of true games, they both won around twice as much as they lost. But just to show how much greater Alex has been, he’s won nearly four times as many games as he lost. That’s a whole other stratosphere.
Following that triumvirate, which led the league for most of the season while winning 10 out of 13 weekly prizes, Jess finishes in fourth place with a TW% of .573. After a rough few seasons in the league’s inaugural years (which we touched on during her draft preview), this is Jess’s fifth straight year with a top-5 finish in the final Power Rankings.
She was trailed by Nick, the surprise of the season, who finishes with the best record in the league, but fifth in the final Power Rankings. It’s his second top-5 finish, but the best TW% of his career.
In sixth place, we have our first non-playoff team—JT. Technically, JT was one of the six best teams in the league but will miss the playoffs. His rough start was just a little too much to overcome. From Weeks 1-5, he ranked 9th in the Power Rankings but 3rd from Week 6 on, which includes last week’s dud. The result is somewhere in the middle—sixth place.
Just a hair behind JT is Erik who finishes in seventh. It was an unfortunate end to the season for Erik who as recently as Week 9 was threatening to join the triumvirate elite (a quadrumvirate?) and was just six true wins back of Brandon for third place. His nose dive to end the season, the Week 13 upset of Jess notwithstanding, results in his first finish outside the top half of the league since 2015.
In her rookie season, Samantha finished eighth in the Power Rankings, significantly aback of JT and Erik, but ultimately staking a claim to the final wildcard playoff spot. The darkest of dark horses, Samantha snuck up on a lot of people this season to make the playoffs at 7-6. It’s a small sample size and she still has the playoffs to make a final first impression, but Samantha’s TW% in her first season already rates as a 16% improvement (+.061 TW%) over her predecessor’s (Terryn’s) career numbers.
A surprise finish in ninth place this year is Gray. His .409 TW% is easily the worst of his career, having never finished below .500 nor in the back half of the Power Rankings in the seven years prior. Though he made a late charge, including a Week 8-12 stretch in which he ranked third with a .609 TW% and 103 ppg, it was too little, too late. The alien is slain.
Trevor finishes in 10th place as his recent woes continued, though not for lack of trying as he made two trades and several key free agent acquisitions this year. Despite the 10th-place finish, it was his best year by TW% since 2014. At the very least, he’s trending in the right direction, which bears well for 2019.
For Greco, there’s no way to sugarcoat what was a terrible year. But hey, we’re all allowed one. And this was Greco’s first losing season in league history, having previously never won fewer than seven games. She becomes just the fifth team (Geoff is the sixth) to experience double-digit losses. Her .241 TW% is a career worst and ranks tied for 93rd worst out of 96 teams in league history.
And then there’s Geoff. Try as he might, he could not avoid the inevitable fate that befell him, which was to pick up the mantle of The Worst Worst Team of All-Time. It’s a dishonor previously held by Nick who went 31-110-2 (.224 TW%) last year and by Erik before him who held the title for six years, dating back to his 34-108-1 (.241 TW%) season in 2011. Now that ignominious honor belongs to Geoff. Congratulations, sir.
The Playoff Picture
Nick and Brandon win their divisions. Alex, Jess, Josh and Samantha also advance as wildcards.
We’ll break down the playoff matchups and the odds for each team of taking home the championship in a post to come. So for now, I’ll just say congratulations to Nick (1st playoff appearance), Brandon (4th), Alex (4th), Jess (3rd), Josh (3rd) and Samantha (1st).
For all the hand-wringing earlier this season about the role that luck plays in determining your record, things turned out pretty chalky. Specifically, the top five teams in the Power Rankings (Alex, Brandon, Josh, Jess and Nick) all advanced to the playoffs with Samantha as the only interloper, jumping two spots to replace JT as the 6-seed. Not bad.
No, the best team (Alex) did not receive a first-round bye, which is a miscarriage of justice given how great his team has been. But it’s hard to complain about life when you’re the beneficiary of Le’Veon Bell’s flukey season-long holdout. Brandon as the second-place team in the Power Rankings is a deserving 2-seed, despite his record. If there’s any critique of the playoff bracket, perhaps it’s that Nick (the fifth-place team) gets a first-round bye and would not have to face either of the top two teams until the championship.
But fantasy football, like life, is rarely fair.
2018 Regular Season Recap
Alright, now for the fun stuff. If you were skimming through the Power Rankings, now’s the time to STOP SCROLLING! Do I have everyone’s attention? It wasn’t that bad, right? Just 1,700 words. Okay great. Let’s recap the regular season and hand out some awards.
(Clears throat)
In 2018, Nick shocked the world by winning a league-best 10 games, shattering his own personal record of seven from 2016. Nick became just the fourth team owner and the fifth team to achieve double-digit wins, joining Brandon (10-3 in 2017), Jess (10-2-1 in 2014) and Gray (11-2 in 2016 and 2011). Now he readies himself for his first playoff appearance in league history, the last of the remaining 10 founding members of the Worst League to do so.
But Nick was far from the only owner to see historic production. Alex set the league record for most points scored with 1,491, surpassing Gray’s record of 1,421 set in 2016. He became the first owner to ever average more than 110 ppg with 114.7, scoring triple-digits in a record-breaking 11 out of 13 weeks besting Gray’s 10 from 2011. That’s just disgusting, frankly. His lowest score of the year, which was 89 points in Week 4, was still greater than the average score for 60 out of 96 teams in league history, including the averages of 9 playoff teams. Wow.
While Alex paced the scoring this season, he wasn’t alone in putting up big numbers. Four other veteran owners set personal scoring records including Josh (105.7 ppg), Brandon (101.3 ppg), Nick (95.0 ppg) and JT (93.6 ppg). If we include Samantha (87.2 ppg), that’s half the league. As a whole, we witnessed the most points ever scored in league history with 91.6 ppg, which was nearly 10 ppg greater than last year and far surpassed the previous record of 88.2 ppg from 2016.
Of course, it wasn’t roses for everyone. Perhaps not coincidentally the two team owners with young children at home, Greco and Geoff had their worst seasons in league history as measured by wins, points and TW%. For Greco, it broke a perfect streak of seven straight winning seasons, having never won fewer than seven games. Also joining them with a career-low in TW% was parent-to-be Gray who experienced the first losing season by TW% of his career. Meanwhile, childless Alex, Brandon, Josh and Nick all had their best seasons by TW% to date. I’m not saying kids are a bad thing. I’m just saying… priorities.
Alright, let’s hand out some awards.
Best Draft Pick
Patrick Mahomes, Alex
Lots of great options to go with here. Obviously, James Conner as an 11th-round pick who finished the regular season as RB5 was awesome for Alex and quite reminiscent of his 11th-round pick of rookie David Johnson in 2015. Nick Chubb for JT (11th round, RB13), James White for Josh (10th round, RB10) and Tyler Lockett for Jess (10th, WR14) were also great late-round selections who yielded starter-level production (though ironically Lockett is not even in Jess’s rotation). Tyreek Hill (WR1) for Josh and Adam Thielen (WR4) for Brandon were great early-round picks that overdelivered on their draft position even in the third round.
But it’s hard to beat when a player you draft in the 12th round—one of the last few rounds before everyone starts picking kickers and defenses—winds up becoming the top overall player in fantasy. That was the case for Alex who drafted Patrick Mahomes 141st overall. Some of the players drafted immediately before Mahomes—Donte Moncrief, Jordan Wilkins and Matthew Stafford. Alex did not directly benefit from Mahomes’ breakout season, but he did turn that asset into AJ Green, who eventually became DeAndre Hopkins (WR5). Not bad for a 12th-round pick.
Worst Draft Pick
Le’Veon Bell, Geoff
This one was a no-brainer. The third-overall pick yielded exactly 0 points as Bell never suited up for the Steelers this season. We rehashed much of this in an earlier post, so I won’t go into too much detail here. But suffice to say, it’s harder to do worse with a top-three pick than this. Bell joins the ranks of other top-three picks who torpedoed their owners’ seasons like Adrian Peterson for Terryn who missed most of 2014 following an indictment on child abuse (8 total points) or Jamaal Charles and David Johnson for Erik and Alex who each had early season-ending injuries in 2011 and 2017.
Worst Draft Pick Not Named Le’Veon Bell
Rob Gronkowski, Greco
Of the players who busted in the more traditional way (read: playing below expectations), I have to give the nod to Rob Gronkowski. The second-round pick who was selected between Michael Thomas (WR5) and Davante Adams (WR2) averaged just 4.9 ppg and was a big reason why Greco floundered this season. In a year in which TE scoring was so hard to come by, it’s tough to get below average production from a second-round pick. And when you do spend that second pick on a TE, you certainly expect that position to be rock solid all season long, which was definitely not the case with Gronk.
Other notable busts in the first four rounds included LeSean McCoy (Geoff), Tom Brady (Samantha), Chris Hogan (Brandon) and Royce Freeman (Alex). See? Even Thanos misses from time to time. In the middle rounds, JT’s seventh-round selection of the Jaguars D/ST before countless reliable starters (Drew Brees, Aaron Jones, Kenny Golladay and more) proves why it’s risky to spend an early pick on a defense. For the season, the Jaguars D/ST ranked 15th.
Best Free Agent Acquisition
Phillip Lindsay, Trevor
Of course, it’s not all about the draft. The waiver wire is a great place to find talent. Just last season, Brandon won a championship aided in large part by the Week 5 acquisition of Alvin Kamara. This year, the top pickup was no doubt Phillip Lindsay.
Lindsay was picked up by Trevor on the waiver wire following a surprising 16-point Week 1 performance. Though he was eventually traded to Alex in exchange for a package that included Mark Ingram, Lindsay would go on to finish the regular season as RB9, ranked ahead of former first-round picks like David Johnson, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. and DeAndre Hopkins.
But at the time Trevor grabbed him, he was no sure thing. Two other owners who had a shot at Lindsay chose other options, including Gray who selected George Kittle (TE4) and Brandon who opted for Quincy Enunwa (WR79). Definitely wish I could have that one back. I distinctly remember thinking Lindsay was the riskier option given Royce Freeman’s presence while I was confident Enunwa would prove to be this season’s Robby Anderson. Doh! Little did I know Lindsay was this season’s Kamara.
Other great free agent pickups included the aforementioned Kittle (TE4), Tyler Boyd (WR13), Eric Ebron (TE3) and the Bears D/ST (D/ST1). Notably Boyd was also a Trevor pickup. His successes on the waiver wire were what kept him in contention for so long despite a lackluster draft and a litany of injuries. In fact, Trevor led the league in points from free agency with 313 or nearly 30% of his total scoring this season.
Worst Drop
Eric Ebron, Brandon
Before Brandon was mired in the Tight End Wasteland, he actually had a top-3 TE on his roster. He just didn’t know it yet. His name? Eric Ebron. And Brandon dropped him after he scored just 3 points in Week 3 in favor of teammate Jack Doyle. Not smart.
The worst part? Doyle didn’t even play in Week 4. Brandon dropped Ebron based on reports that Doyle would return that week. He didn’t. Not for another four weeks actually. Meanwhile, Nick wisely scooped up Ebron who would go on to average 10.4 ppg. In fact, Ebron’s point total is the equivalent of RB15 or WR13. And Brandon dropped him for TE30. Ouch.
Honorable mention goes to Josh for dropping Adam Humphries (WR28) in Week 10 for C.J. Uzomah.
Best Trade
Mark Ingram and A.J. Green for Phillip Lindsay and DeAndre Hopkins, Alex
This was a busy year for trades as a total of 10 were made this season, the second-most all-time and the most since 2015. There were many good ones and obviously we chronicled them all here on the site. It’s hard to pick a winner for the trade that most improved its team owner. Certainly, Josh acquiring the top overall player, Patrick Mahomes, was a great move. So too was Gray’s masterful series of trades that resulted in Mike Evans.
But for me, the trade that takes the cake is Alex’s deal to acquire Phillip Lindsay and DeAndre Hopkins. At the time of the trade, it seemed like a fairly even deal. But looking at it now, it’s not even close. Since Week 5, Lindsay and Hopkins have outscored Ingram and Green by a combined 88 points or 11.0 ppg. And while it may be harder to evaluate Hopkins vs. Green given Green’s injury, Lindsay (RB9) vastly outperformed Ingram (RB30). It’s actually funny to go back and read what I wrote about the trade back when it happened.
But if he [Ingram] simply replicates or even regresses a little from his performance last season, then he’s at least an RB2 with potential to be an RB1. It’s hard to see Lindsay having that kind of a ceiling without an injury to Royce Freeman. Don’t forget Devontae Booker also factors into that backfield in Denver.
In fairness to me, Ingram has averaged 10.4 ppg since returning from his suspension, which would rate as RB15, in line with my description of him as a high-end RB2. But he’s been very volatile while Lindsay has been consistent. Not only that, but Lindsay has blown through whatever ceiling I imagined for him, averaging 14.6 ppg including 21.7 ppg over his last three, which are Todd Gurley numbers. So yeah. Devontae who?
Lastly, what makes this trade even better is that it keeps the Mahomes trade from looking bad. Had Alex not turned Green into DeAndre Hopkins, then Alex would have traded the #1 overall player in fantasy for a player that ended up on IR. Certainly, you can’t predict injuries. But it stings a lot less when you think of the deal as Mahomes for Hopkins as opposed to Mahomes for Green.
Mr. Glass Award
Gray
This award goes to the team owner with the worst injury luck this season. And boy were there many deserving nominees. Trevor spent most of the year without 13th overall pick Dalvin Cook. Then lost Chris Thompson and A.J. Green. JT lost Jay Ajayi and Tyler Eifert. Brandon lost Will Fuller and Jimmy Garoppolo, not to mention Melvin Gordon. Erik lost Marshawn Lynch and then Randall Cobb for much of the year. Geoff lost Marvin Jones and Greg Olsen. Jess lost Delanie Walker. Nick lost Alex Collins. Samantha lost Cooper Kupp, Bilal Powell, Rex Burkhead and (BREAKING NEWS!) Emmanuel Sanders to season-ending injuries.
But it’s hard to beat the calamity that befell Gray. He lost his first- and second-round picks Leonard Fournette and Devonta Freeman in Week 1. No one else had to endure that combination of elite talent lost for so long a duration—even Geoff. And to make matters worse, when Fournette finally returned, he sidelined himself by getting into an altercation that resulted in a one-game suspension during a crucial Week 13 game. It was that suspension which likely cost him a spot in the playoffs. That’s LSU on LSU crime. Just brutal.
Cleanest Bill of Health
Josh
Three owners this season stayed relatively healthy compared to the rest. The first was Alex whose seemingly charmed existence was like walking between the raindrops. Not that you’d call it an injury, but Le’Veon Bell’s absence resulted in his 11th-round pick playing like a first-rounder. Then Alex acquired and subsequently traded away A.J. Green just four weeks before what would become a season-ending injury. That’s lucky. Imagine Alex’s team without Conner or Hopkins. He’s still Thanos just minus two Infinity Stones. All that being said, Alex’s good fortune may have finally run out. Entering the first week of the playoffs, he’ll be without Conner and potential backup Matt Breida, both out with ankle injuries. Plus, Evan Engram has struggled all season long with injuries of his own.
The second owner is Greco. Honestly, there’s not really a single player on her roster who has had to deal with a serious injury this season. To some extent Doug Baldwin or Chris Carson, but their injuries were short-lived.
But the team owner who claims the top prize is Josh. That’s because not only were Josh’s players completely healthy, but in several cases his players benefited from injuries to other players. For example, Tevin Coleman saw a significant uptick in production following the injury to Devonta Freeman. So too did James White following injuries to Rex Burkhead and, for a time, Sony Michel. Even Kamara benefited from Ingram’s four-game suspension to start the year. And really, when those three players were humming, that’s when Josh was at his best. The only bit of bad luck, at least that I can find, is the trade of Carlos Hyde to the Jaguars. It doesn’t count as an injury, but it had the same effect as if Josh had lost a RB to an ACL tear. So whatever your secret is Josh to keeping your players in tip-top shape, I want to know!
Luckiest Team Owner
Nick
This one is simple math. Nick’s win percentage is +.213 points higher than his TW%. He has a good team. It’s just not 10-3 good. In fact, it’s more like 7-6 good. Other lucky team owners this season included Gray (+.091), Samantha (+.091) and Jess (+.080).
Unluckiest Team Owner
Josh
Surprise! It’s not Alex. It’s Josh. While Alex’s record experienced some positive regression back toward the mean, Josh’s did so to a lesser degree. His final win percentage was -.126 points less than his actual TW%. In other words, he finished as a 7-6 team, but really should have been closer to 8-4-1, like Jess. Other unlucky team owners this season included Alex (-.101) and JT (-.066).
Weirdest Stat Likely Never to Be Duplicated
5 points, Erik
That’s the number of points Erik got from defenses this season. Not per game. For the season. That’s right. Over the course of 13 games, Erik scored a total of just 5 points from the D/ST position. That’s in large part due to the fact that he had four negative defensive scores this season. But even still, it’s hard to fathom how he ended up with just 5 points. In the history of the league, only seven of 96 teams have averaged fewer than 5.0 ppg from D/ST and none have scored fewer than 40 total. I’m not even mad. I’m impressed.
“What Had Happened Was…” Award
Errybody
This one goes out to all the stupid things that were said on our beloved, new WhatsApp group chat. I went back and read through the full transcript and picked out my favorite quotes including hollow boasts and predictions gone wrong. Enjoy!
“Y’all let Ajayi fall to me in the fourth and be my first RB 😂” –JT
Posted after Ajayi scored 20 points in Week 1. He scored 16 points the rest of the season.
“#8 in the rankings but #1 in your hearts right here! I’m gonna move them chains up that ladder.” –Geoff
Eighth place in the Power Rankings was as high as Geoff got this season.
“I’m not done 😁” –Gray
Gray wrote this after his third trade, a six-player deal that netted him Mike Evans, intimating that more deals were in the works including a deal for either Jared Goff or Cam Newton. Neither were dealt. The Evans deal was his last trade. He was done.
“I wish I cared about anything as much as Brandon cares about fantasy football.” –JT
Less than one month after writing this, JT got married.
“Is it a coincidence that the two parents in the league are DFL?” –Gray
Nine days after writing this, Gray announced he and his wife were expecting their first child.
“Good thing I drafted Corey Clement.” –Jess
Not really. RB50.
“I think Fournette doesn’t [come back].” –Alex
Posted following the Carlos Hyde trade. Fournette came back in Week 10 to average 21.0 ppg.
“This fucking Cook guy is a real pain in the ass.” –Trevor
He wasn’t wrong.
“Can you feel the tectonic plates shifting beneath the Worst League?” –Brandon
Posted after a Le’Veon Bell tweet in which he bid farewell to Miami. Bell never came back. Turns out Brandon was just feeling the aftershocks from his own brain fart.
“If you have Phillip Rivers as your QB and you aren’t even acknowledging offers for Goff then I don’t know what to tell ya.” –Gray
Since this post, Rivers: 43. Goff: 8.
“Or Wentz.” –Gray
Wentz: 33. Goff: 8.
“Coming for you, Josh” –JT
He wasn’t.
Looking Ahead to the Playoffs
That’s it! We’re closing the book on the 2018 regular season and headed to the playoffs. We’ll have a full playoff preview with championship probabilities as soon as I can wrangle together some time to write one.
In the meanwhile, thanks to JT, Erik, Gray, Trevor, Greco and Geoff for a fun season and a valiant effort. Your activity and participation was off the charts. And don’t lose heart.
There’s always next year.
