Week 12 Power Rankings

Don’t ask me why, but I spent a good portion of the Thanksgiving weekend watching an Alien marathon on IFC. Who knows? Maybe it has something to do with the fact that all that turkey and stuffing makes it feel like something is about to burst out of your abdominal cavity.

Regardless, there was the 1979 classic Alien. Its sequel, Aliens. Which was followed by Alien 3 and then of course Alien Resurrection. After that there were two Alien vs. Predator movies. And finally the prequel series, which includes Prometheus and Alien: Covenant, the latter of which was released just last year.

That’s eight movies in all. And if there’s one theme that’s remained consistent across them all, it’s this—that damn alien just won’t die.

Me facing the prospect of having to play Gray in the playoffs.

They shoot it, set it on fire, banish it to the cold vacuum of space and yet still it comes back for more, its persistence and indomitable pursuit as inevitable as the cash grab for yet another sequel every five years or so.

And like most monster movies, there’s always a moment when you think the alien is finally dead. When you can finally catch your breath and count your blessings that somehow you’ve made it out alive. But just when your back is turned, that’s when it snakes its slimy tail around your legs, pulls you close and jabs its tongue mouth through your heart. Xenomorphs, right?

Well, that’s what it’s like to play Gray in fantasy football.

For years, he’s dominated the league, chasing down top-3 finishes and rendering lifeless every competitor he’s faced. For his career, he has a winning record against every single active team owner with the exception of Greco. And he’s 4-4 against her with the chance to be 5-4 this time next week.

But finally, this season, it seemed like Gray’s team was dead in the water. He was assigned the dreaded, some would say “cursed,” sixth pick in the draft. Then lost both Leonard Fournette and Devonta Freeman, his first- and second-round picks, in Week 1 to injuries that have lingered for weeks. Combined they have played just three complete games all season.

As for the other RBs he selected (Derrick Henry, Jamaal Williams and Ronald Jones), they have all been equally useless. Only T.J. Yeldon was serviceable for a time and that was until the Jaguars traded for his replacement (Carlos Hyde). It got so bad that Gray was starting Raheem Mostert at one point this season. Until of course he got injured too and placed on IR.

The result is that all season long Gray has been circling the drain of the Worst League. He had the worst score in Week 1, just 62 points. Since then, he’s been almost consistently in the bottom-3 of the Power Rankings, the high-water mark being Week 4 when he successfully reached ninth place. He has three games of 70 points or less and eight games of 84 points or less. With one week to go in the regular season, he ranks ninth in this week’s Power Rankings (see below). The worst Gray has ever finished is sixth.

And yet…

That damn alien won’t die.

This week Gray led all scorers with 139 points, his second straight game of over 120 points. For weeks Gray’s biggest weakness was RB, averaging 15.6 ppg from the position, which ranks 11th behind even Geoff. Now suddenly, he’s flush with double-digit scorers in the backfield. Leonard Fournette is back and healthy, averaging 21.0 ppg since returning. Lamar Miller, who he acquired through trade, has hit double-digits in four of his last five. And Josh Adams, picked up in free agency prior to Week 10, seems to have run away with the starting job in Philadelphia. Combine those backs with top-15 WRs Mike Evans and Stefon Diggs and top-5 QBs Jared Goff and Cam Newton and you’ve got a recipe for trouble.

Normally, a team owner with this many regular season woes would be dead by now. Too little, too late. But Gray is no normal team owner. He scrapped and clawed his way out of a terrible draft through trade, free agency and a little luck and now sits at the precipice of the playoffs.

Win and he’s in.

It’s as if we killed him, only to discover in the closing scenes that somehow he survived and has stowed away on our escape pod. And the only one that can stop him is Greco.

May God have mercy on our souls.

The Scoreboard

In Week 12, the Legends Division dominated as all six team owners won their matchups with teams from the rival Leaders Division. In fact, every team owner in the Legends Division (Nick, Jess, Alex, Gray, JT and Samantha) now has a .500 or better record, which compares to just two (Brandon and Josh) in the Leaders Division. Collectively, Legends teams are 43-27-2 while the ironically named Leaders are 28-44.

More than half the league hit triple digits in a single week for just the fourth time in league history.

This week, Gray led all scorers with a 139-49 defeat of Geoff. The 90-point margin of victory was tied for the second-largest in league history, only bested by Trevor’s 97-point win over Nick in Week 9 of 2011. This is Gray’s first weekly prize of the season as he becomes the sixth different team owner this year to earn one. As a reminder, please send the commissioner a Venmo request to claim your prize if you haven’t already.

Speaking of the commissioner, Alex clinched a playoff spot with a 103-76 win over Josh. Without Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, Josh struggled to put up points, getting single digits from everyone in his lineup with the exception of David Moore (16 points) and Justin Tucker (11). Alex easily cruised to the win even without Evan Engram who was an unexpected scratch from the game, which was not announced until after kickoff.

Samantha got revenge for a Week 6 loss to her worse half, Brandon, with a 113-107 victory thanks to 35 big points from Christian McCaffrey. Samantha actually had the two highest individual scorers of the week, though Amari Cooper’s 30 points did come on her bench. No matter. Her 113 points were just enough after two of Brandon’s WRs (Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Keke Coutee) combined for just 1 point. But most damaging to Brandon’s Sunday was not the loss to Samantha, but the loss of Melvin Gordon (RB4) to an MCL sprain for at least the next couple of weeks, which will no doubt have implications for the playoffs.

Nick continued his winning ways (his third in a row) with a 103-77 win over Trevor. At TE, Eric Ebron poured in 16 points including his league-leading 11th receiving TD on the season (tied with Tyreek Hill and Antonio Brown if you can believe it). Moving forward, it should be more of the Ebron Show as Jack Doyle was placed on IR after suffering a season-ending kidney injury. If there’s a good kind of injury for your team, this is it.

Jess defeated Greco in a game that was closer than the final score (106-89) indicated. That’s because Greco got great contributions from several players including Rob Gronkowski (who scored his first TD since Week 1) and Corey Davis (18 points). In fact, had Greco started Kenyan Drake (21 points) instead of Dion Lewis (3), she would have won by 1 point.

But the biggest and most consequential game of the week had to be the game between JT and Erik. In what was a win-or-go-home matchup, JT crushed Erik 115-67. Playing without Brandin Cooks and Travis Kelce, Erik got a respectable 20 points from replacements Keenan Allen and Jordan Reed. But the absence of Todd Gurley plus big no-shows from Carson Wentz (11 points), Jordan Howard (1), Alshon Jeffery (3) and the Panthers D/ST (0) ultimately doomed him. JT, meanwhile, almost outscored Erik’s entire team with just his RBs (Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and LeGarrette Blount) who combined to score 65 points. And to think JT was an owner that used to favor WRs.

The Power Rankings

Alex tops the Power Rankings for a league-high eighth time this season. Brandon moves up one spot into a tie for second with Josh. Gray moves up one spot into ninth, his highest ranking this year. And Geoff and Greco swap spots with Geoff back in last place.

Gray moves up into ninth place for the first time since Week 4 but with his highest TW% yet.

As for Alex, he’s pushed significantly ahead of the pack. With a 14.5-true win lead with one week to go, Alex has officially cemented his place atop the Power Rankings. In other words, Alex wins the regular season! He has unquestionably the best team of 2018. Here are the list of the other regular season champions, i.e. teams that finished #1 in the final Power Rankings.

2011. Gray, 112-30-1 (.787)
2012. Alex, 101-42-0 (.706)
2013. Greco, 104-38-1 (.731)
2014. Jess*, 97-44-2 (.685)
2015. Gray, 99-43-1 (.696)
2016. Gray, 115-27-1 (.808)
2017. Brandon*, 90-46-7 (.654)

*Denotes playoff champion.

As you can see, this will be Alex’s second regular season crown. And in terms of where this team rates among the rest, he’s already surpassed four of those teams in true wins, including his 2012 squad.

Unfortunately, after going 5-5-1 in Week 12, he can no longer challenge Gray’s 2016 team for greatest team of all-time, at least as far as TW% is concerned. The best he could do is 113-29-1, which would be two games short. That being said, he still has a very good chance at the points record. With 1,383 points scored, he needs just 39 points to break the record set by Gray in 2016 of 1,421 points.

At the other end of the spectrum, Geoff is back in a mess of trouble after posting the lowest score of the week for a league-leading fourth time this season. To avoid becoming the worst team of all-time, he must go 4-7 in Week 13. So far this year, he’s won at least four true games in a given week five out of 12 times.

But Geoff is not alone in gunning for last place. Greco needs three true wins, herself, to avoid setting the record for worst TW% of all-time. Like Geoff, she’s accomplished that in five out of 12 weeks this year.

The only other thing I’ll note about the Power Rankings before we shift to talking about the playoffs is that for the most part, the cream has risen to the top. Take a look at the top six teams and what you’ll see is a list of teams that have either already clinched or are in contention for the playoffs. The one major exception being Gray who is hopeful to clinch his spot in Week 13 with a win despite currently ranking in ninth place.

The Playoff Picture

One more week left in the regular season! Man, where did the season go? After weeks of jockeying back and forth for playoff position, it finally all comes down to this. So without further ado, here’s the final Playoff Picture of the regular season.

The final two playoff spots will come down to Gray, Josh, JT and Samantha.

Who has clinched a spot in the playoffs?

Previously Nick, Jess and Brandon and now Alex.

With a win over Josh in Week 12, Alex officially punched his ticket for the playoffs. That leaves us with four team owners that have clinched before the final week of the season. All have at least eight wins and are guaranteed no worse than a top-four seed.

Who is still in contention?

Gray, Josh, JT and Samantha.

Erik’s loss to JT eliminated him from the playoffs. Though he could still get to 6-7, the fact that Josh and JT (both 6-6) will play each other in Week 13 means that one of them will get to 7-6 (or technically 6-6-1 with a tie). And since Gray already has 6.5 wins, there’s no way Erik could catch that group. Again, the best he could do is 6 wins.

Also eliminated this week was Trevor who lost to Nick to drop him to 4-8. With Geoff and Greco already previously eliminated, that leaves Gray, Josh, JT and Samantha battling for the final two wildcard spots.

What does Gray need to do to make the playoffs?

Win or tie and he’s in. Lose and he still might be in too.

Gray plays Greco in Week 13. If he beats her for the second time this season, it would improve his record to 7-5-1, which would clinch the fifth seed. Even a tie would get him to 6-5-2, which essentially counts as 7 wins and would do the same, though potentially pushing him down a line on the seeding chart.

If he were to lose to Greco, the winner of Josh vs. JT would advance to the playoffs first with a 7-6 record. Gray would then be next in line at 6-6-1 unless Samantha wins. In that case, she would advance also with a 7-6 record over Gray. So win and he’s in. Lose with a Samantha loss, he’s still in. Lose and Samantha wins, he’s out.

The computer gives Gray an 85% chance.

What do Josh or JT need to do to make the playoffs?

Winner advances to the playoffs. Loser goes home.

The schedule has created a tasty final matchup between Josh and JT, two owners vying for one of the final wildcard spots. With identical 6-6 records, the winner will advance to 7-6 and automatically clinch his spot in the playoffs, while the loser at 6-7 will be eliminated. With one game to go, Josh and JT (in addition to Gray) all find themselves in the driver’s seat. Win and you’re in.

Because Josh is currently favored in the game and the Power Rankings, the computer gives him a 59% chance and JT a 41% chance.

Could Josh and JT both make the playoffs?

Technically, yes. It’s possible if they tie because of the points tiebreaker.

If Josh and JT were to tie, they would have identical 6-6-1 records. In that case (assuming Samantha loses), Josh would advance to the playoffs because he is the current leader in points. Then if Gray were to lose his game to Greco to drop to 6-6-1, JT would advance over Gray because he currently leads Gray by a wide margin. So yes, Josh and JT could both make the playoffs if they tie and Gray and Samantha both lose.

What does Samantha need to do to make the playoffs?

Win and hope Gray loses.

So I screwed this up a little bit last week when I wrote a complex series of contingencies that needed to happen for Samantha to make the playoffs including for Erik to beat JT this past week. When JT won, I thought Samantha was eliminated. Until I ran the computer simulation and was surprised to see that she made the playoffs in 1,548 of 10,000 simulations—a not insignificant 15% of the time.

What I neglected to realize was that I had made the assumption that Gray was going to win out. I had already assumed he would beat Greco this week. But that’s no certainty. Even though she’s 2-10 with just a .223 TW%, she still has a chance. The computer gives her a 28% chance to defeat Gray. Boosting that probability is the fact that Gray will be without Leonard Fournette in Week 13 due to a suspension for a bit of fisticuffs last week.

So if Gray loses and Samantha beats Trevor, she and the winner of Josh vs. JT would advance with 7-6 records. Again, the computer gives her a 15% chance.

Who will win the divisions?

With Josh’s loss to Alex, Brandon locked up the first of two first-round byes even with a Week 12 defeat at the hands of Samantha. He is officially the winner of the Leaders Division. But because he is a game back of Nick, a half game back of Jess and well behind Alex in the points tiebreaker, in all likelihood Brandon will get the two-seed in the playoffs (unless Nick, Jess and Alex all lose in Week 13).

As for the one-seed and the Legends Division crown, it’s still up in the air! Nick, Jess and Alex are all still in contention for that valuable first-round bye.

Currently, Nick is the odds-on favorite. With a win over last-place Geoff, he would advance to 10-3 (man, I can’t believe I just wrote that) and clinch the first-round bye. Considering that he’s won three straight including games against Josh, Brandon and Trevor, you would think he could get the job done against Geoff. In fact, Nick has scored no fewer than 93 points in his last four games. Geoff has only done that once this season and that was way back in Week 3. The computer gives him an 84% chance.

But if Nick were to lose, then Jess would win the division with a victory over Erik. It’s a much tougher matchup, especially now that Erik has Todd Gurley back, but she’s already previously beaten Erik back in Week 7. The computer gives her an 11% chance to win the division.

Finally, if Nick and Jess were to both lose, then that would open the door for Alex to claim his rightful place atop the Legends Division and the one-seed in the playoffs. However, standing in his way will be Brandon, who is the toughest opponent any of the three will face. The computer gives him just a 5% chance.

And if somehow they were all to lose, Nick would win the division. Though because all three are favorites in their matchups, the chances of that happening is less than 3%.

Looking Ahead to Week 13

The final week of the regular season is upon us and there are still many questions to be answered and much to be decided. Case in point, the biggest matchup of the week and probably the season is the winner-take-all game between Josh and JT. Winner goes to the playoffs. Loser goes home.

Also big will be Gray’s game against Greco. Can she play spoiler and open the door for Samantha? And will Samantha defeat Trevor to give her a winning record in her first season in the league and one final chance at the playoffs?

Can Alex come from behind to take hold of the Legends Division and the one-seed in the playoffs by defeating Brandon? Or will Nick and Jess stand in his way by winning games against Geoff and Erik.

And can Geoff win 4 true games for the love of God? Or will he be forever branded as the worst-team of all-time? And will Alex break the scoring record?

No matter who you are, there’s something to play for in Week 13. Maybe you’re trying to clinch a playoff spot. Maybe you’re playing for seeding. Or maybe you’re just playing spoiler. Regardless, there’s still that last weekly prize that’s up in the air. And for some of you, this may be your last chance to recoup a little bit of that investment.

So, let’s venture once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more. The promised land awaits and it’s yet to be decided who we may find there.