Week 11 Power Rankings
To bring together a group of remarkable people to see if we could become something more. Not just a league, but a coalition of superstar fantasy football players. So when September rolled around, we could fight the imaginary battles that pass the time. It was fun.
Until now.
Suddenly, a darkness has descended where once there was light. The kind that instinctively makes the hairs on the back of your neck stand on end and sends a tingling foreboding down your spine.
“In time,” a voice warned. “You will know what it’s like to lose. To feel so desperately that your team is good, yet to fail all the same.” As the key light swept its mostly CGI face, a figure emerged from the shadows.
It was Alex.
“Dread it,” he growled, thrusting his dagger into the heart of Trevor’s playoff hopes. “Run from it,” he cackled, forcefully extracting a star RB from the head of Geoff’s lineup.
“Destiny still arrives.”
Abandon hope all ye who play Alex.
Today, as we dig through the rubble of Week 11, yet another week in which the high score belonged to Alex—this time a 139-point trouncing of Erik by a margin of 74 points—it’s become increasingly clear that Alex belongs unto a tier all by himself.
This was Alex’s third-straight game of 139 points or more and his fourth straight of at least 120. In fact, since Week 8 when James Conner returned from bye to formally and permanently return to Alex’s lineup, Alex has unleashed a Thanos-like fury upon the Worst League the likes of which we have never seen.
In consecutive weeks, he’s scored 120, 148, 143 and 139 points for an average of 137.5 ppg. Over that time, his true record is 42-2 for a TW% of .955. Never before in the history of the Worst League has a team had a better four weeks.
And believe me, I looked. Here are the five best four-week runs in league history as measured by points per game.
1. Alex, Weeks 8-11, 2018: 137.5 ppg
2. Gray, Weeks 1-4*, 2011: 132.0 ppg
3. Gray, Weeks 6-9, 2016: 123.5 ppg
4. Josh, Weeks 6-9, 2018: 118.5 ppg
5. Alex, Weeks 8-11, 2012: 117.3 ppg
*Gray’s blistering start to 2011 actually continued through Week 6, but this was the hottest four-week run over that stretch.
In looking through the record books, there are a lot of teams that have been able to average between 110-115 ppg for four consecutive games. But very few have risen above that mark. And only three have truly blown past it to get to at least 120 ppg.
The first was Gray way back in 2011. He actually had a ridiculous six-week stretch to start the league’s inaugural season in which he averaged 126.3 ppg with a true record of 64-2, never scoring fewer than 110 points. The hottest four-game stretch during that time was from Weeks 1-4 when he averaged 132.0 ppg.
The second was also Gray, this time in 2016. From Weeks 6-9, Gray went 43-1 while scoring 123.5 ppg. As you might recall, this is the oft-cited “greatest team of all-time” as measured by its wins (11), points (1,421), true wins (115.5) and TW% (.808). It was a fearsome lineup that featured three dominant RBs, two elite WRs and Drew Brees. Sound familiar?
The third is Alex this year who eclipses them all. Yes, his team is even hotter right now than the best team of all-time. And it’s fair to start wondering if perhaps that title of “greatest ever” may soon belong to a new team owner.
Alex won’t catch Gray in wins. The best he can do is 9-4. But every other metric is within reach. He needs just 142 more points in two weeks (or just 71 ppg) to break the all-time scoring record. That’s probably already in the bag at this point. And at his current rate, it’s possible Alex could accomplish that by Week 12. (Coincidentally, Josh has a shot to break that record too, needing 209 points.)
But to truly take the crown (or the gauntlet, as it were), Alex would need to go 19-3 in true games over the last two weeks, which is certainly possible. As I noted above, he’s only lost two true games over the last four weeks. If he can keep that up, there will really be no denying his dominance.
And yet, a hero knows that hope is never truly lost.
Because at the end of the day, the bad guy rarely wins. Gray’s team from 2011 was upset by Brandon in the highest-scoring championship game in league history. The greatest team of all time? They also lost to Brandon in a massive upset in the semifinals, clearing the way for Geoff’s first championship in 2016. Even Alex is familiar with this storyline. His 2012 team, which had the fifth-highest-scoring four-game stretch in league history and was listed above, finished atop the final Power Rankings but was upset by Greco in the finals.
This year, there have been more heroes than ever to help contend with this impending threat.
Samantha is the plucky, new Avenger—Spider-Man. Erik is Tony Stark aka Iron Man. JT is Captain America who like JT no doubt roots for America’s Team.
Jess is Black Widow, the femme fatale whose body is resistant to aging or disease like her star RB Adrian Peterson. Gray is Thor, the formerly dominant god of the Worst League who’s spent most of this movie nursing his wounds but is ready to emerge in the season’s final scenes with a brand-new battle-axe (Leonard Fournette).
Nick is Dr. Strange, which is also how you would describe the league’s only team owner to have never made the playoffs drafting from the one position to also have never made the playoffs suddenly leading his division. Trevor is Rocket—moody and aloof, speaking softly on WhatsApp but carrying a big stick (Groot). I believe Dalvin Cook is Baby Groot in this scenario.
In any other movie, Josh as Black Panther would be the star of this season, a relative newcomer with a crowd-pleasing offense the likes of which the world has never seen. Geoff is Vision who lost his Infinity Stone. I am clearly Star-Lord. I mean, come on.
And Greco, like Hulk, is a shell of her former self, having spent most of this movie hidden somewhere deep inside herself. What we’re left with is Bruce Banner and he’s 2-9.
Given all of that firepower, you would think one of us could stop Alex. And yet, he’s been unbeatable these last couple weeks. Literally.
Perhaps, that’s because his search for the six Infinity Stones is complete. Over the course of the season through the draft and trade, he’s slowly amassed Drew Brees, James Conner, Ezekiel Elliott, Phillip Lindsay, DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams. All rank within the top-12 of their position. Five rank within the top-10. Two rank within the top-3. And oh yeah, he has the #1 defense and kicker too. I guess those make up the gauntlet, itself.
Soon as the playoffs start, with a snap of his fingers, half the league will slowly disintegrate into nothingness. And unless somebody’s got Captain Marvel on speed dial, the rest may soon follow.
“Fun isn’t something one considers when systematically destroying your fantasy league mates,” said Alex, a grin slowly emerging atop his gigantic purple chin.
“But this does put a smile on my face.”
The Scoreboard
Now without further ado, let’s recap the week.
In Week 11, we saw yet another flurry of high scores with five team owners reaching triple digits for the sixth time this season. Much of that scoring occurred dramatically on a historic Monday Night Football as players for both the Rams and Chiefs piled on the points.
Nick clinched his first-ever playoff spot with a 102-94 victory over Brandon.
Alex, of course, led the week in scoring with 139 points in a 139-65 defeat of Erik. This is now Alex’s third weekly prize this season, which ties him with Brandon and Josh for the most this year. For Erik, this is his second-straight loss, which drops him to 5-6, eliminating him from the division race and jeopardizing his shot at the playoffs. (More on that below.)
Jess rebounds from a two-game losing streak to defeat Geoff 128-86 behind a terrific game from T.Y. Hilton (27 points) and really her entire team. Major props for having the courage to start the Rams D/ST against the Chiefs, which paid off with an astounding 16 points despite giving up 51 points of offense. Though Geoff loses the battle, he wins four true games this week, which means he’s halfway home to the eight he needs to avoid becoming the worst team of all-time.
Josh won an important game against Samantha, defeating her 117-73 in a game that was closer than it seemed. That was until Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill helped Josh to an additional 68 points on Monday night.
JT easily defeated Greco 94-61 despite Nick Chubb’s bye week. This week Greco started both Rob Gronkowski and Robbie Gould—both on bye. In fact, had she picked up and played Gerald Everett and Matt Bryant, she actually could have tied JT with 94 points. Which just goes to show you that you should never phone it in! Come on. Have some respect. At the very least, take pride in your new role as a spoiler.
But by far the two biggest games of the week were two upset specials. Nick ended Brandon’s seven-game winning streak while simultaneously securing his first eight-win season and first playoff spot in a 102-94 victory. For Brandon, Kareem Hunt came up just short of the comeback bid. But the silver lining? Brandon’s TE finally scored more than five points for the first time this season. Ironically, it was the guy Nick traded to him earlier this year.
Finally, the other big upset of the week was Gray’s 123-69 win over Trevor. With Leonard Fournette healthy and back in his starting lineup, Gray suddenly has the firepower he’s been missing all season. Trevor, on the other hand, had to be disappointed with a finally healthy Dalvin Cook scoring -1 points against a stout Bears defense.
More on what those upsets mean when we get to the Playoff Picture below.
The Power Rankings
But before we talk playoffs, let’s get to the Power Rankings.
At one time, the top three of the Power Rankings were fairly indistinguishable from one another. As recently as Week 8, Alex, Josh and Brandon were all within two games of each other, separated by no more than .023 percentage points. Now that gap has widened considerably with Alex a full 11 games ahead of Josh and 17 ahead of Brandon. That means even if Alex benched his entire starting lineup and Josh led all team owners in scoring in Week 12, Alex would still be tied for the lead in the Power Rankings. And now, Alex needs just 19 more wins to break the all-time record for true wins set by Gray in 2016.
Erik falls three spots into seventh place following a blowout loss to Alex.
But the biggest mover this week in the Power Rankings is Erik who tumbles from fourth all the way down to seventh. Following the second-lowest scoring output of the week, Erik drops out of the top-six of the Power Rankings for the first time since Week 1.
In his place, Jess moves up two spots into fourth, her highest rating since Week 2. JT holds steady at fifth. And Nick moves up one spot into sixth place. All four, including Erik, are separated by a total of just five games.
In the bottom half of the rankings, Samantha, Trevor and Gray remain in eighth, ninth and 10th place, respectively. Though Gray is still among the bottom-three, he’s trending in the right direction following 123 points in Week 11. At .376, this is the highest Gray’s TW% has been all season long.
At the very bottom, we do have a shakeup! While Geoff is still battling to avoid becoming the worst team of all-time, he’s no longer the worst team of this season. That dishonor belongs to Greco who after scoring just 61 points in Week 11 drops back into 12th place for the first time since Week 7. To avoid breaking Nick’s all-time record from 2016, Geoff will need to go 4-18 while Greco will need to go 7-15. The latter is a much more difficult proposition considering Greco appears to be mailing in the rest of the season. That being said, the players in her lineup are done with their bye weeks and are actually projected for 90 points in Week 12, which is not half bad. So who knows?
The Playoff Picture
Alright, the playoffs! Just two more weeks to go and we’re going to break it all down. Who’s locked up a spot? How are the division races shaping up? And what do you (yes, you) need to do to make a run in the last two weeks?
Brandon, Nick and Jess clinch as Geoff and Greco are eliminated.
Three players punched their tickets for the playoffs—Brandon, Nick and Jess. All three have at least 7.5 wins. Given that the seventh-place team in the standings (JT) has 5 wins, there’s no way any of them can be passed in the standings with two games to go.
That means congratulations are in order for Nick as he has officially clinched his first ever playoff appearance! Well done, sir. For Jess, it’s her third appearance overall and her first since 2015. While Brandon will celebrate his fourth appearance, including his third straight, having not missed the playoffs since 2014.
Next up is Alex. With a win over Erik, Alex improves his record to 7-4. At this point, even if he were to lose his last two games, he could do no worse than tying for sixth place. If that were to occur, the points tiebreaker would come into play. Given that he has a 67-point lead on his next closest competitor (Josh) and a margin of more than 200 points on the teams with which he’d likely be competing for the sixth and final wildcard spot, Alex is essentially a lock for the playoffs as well. We’ll hold off on applying the check mark as it’s not technically impossible that he misses, but you can probably count on Thanos being there.
After Alex, the computer simulation says Josh has the next best chance of making the playoffs at 86%. But I’m going to diverge from the model here and say that Gray actually has the next best odds. In fact, I think he may be pretty close to a lock as well.
The reason? The schedule. Gray’s last two games are against Geoff and Greco—the two worst teams this year and possibly the history of the league. This week, Geoff will be without both Robert Woods who is on bye and Marvin Jones who has been ruled out due to injury. The next best option at WR currently on his roster is Jordy Nelson, who has not scored a point in three weeks. So I don’t like his chances. And Greco? Honestly, that game may be more of a wildcard because she has a decent group of pass catchers (Antonio Brown, Doug Baldwin, Corey Davis and Rob Gronkowski). But she is starting the Chargers D/ST, which will be playing the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 13 who are fourth-worst against opposing defenses. And at this point, I just assume she won’t be making any changes.
But what most encourages me about Gray, beyond the schedule, is that he’s actually kinda good again. Just this week, he scored a season-high 123 points, which is the second time he’s broken the century mark in the last four weeks. That’s more than Geoff and Greco have combined for the whole season. With a healthy Leonard Fournette, a productive group of WRs and two great QBs he can rotate based on matchup, I’m already thinking about Gray as a potential dark horse come playoff time. So given that, let’s just assume Gray makes the playoffs too.
So we’ve got Brandon, Nick, Jess, Alex and Gray. That leaves just one remaining wildcard spot. Of the seven teams remaining, we can officially eliminate Geoff and Greco given that the best either could do is 5 wins and six teams already have at least 5.5. Sorry you two. Better luck next year! Don’t forget to set your lineups each week. In addition to playing spoiler to the other playoff hopefuls, you can still compete for the remaining $20 in weekly prizes. And if you think about it, that’s more than the fourth-place finisher will get.
Okay, now we’re left with five teams competing for one spot—Josh, JT, Erik, Samantha and Trevor. Let’s break down the odds for each, including what needs to happen for each of those team owners to make the playoffs.
What does Josh need to do to make the playoffs?
With six wins, Josh is in the driver’s seat. If he wins his last two games, nobody could catch him. Heck, if he wins one more game, he has such a commanding lead in points (+158 over JT, +197 over Erik, +266 over Samantha, and +292 over Trevor) that one win would be enough to clinch his spot.
The problem is his schedule, which ranks as the second-toughest. In Week 12, he plays Thanos, er… Alex. Not only that, but he’ll be doing it at half-strength considering his All-Pros Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, who just combined for 68 points, will be on bye. Meanwhile, Alex will be at full-strength. So, let’s assume Josh loses that one.
That leaves an all-important Week 13 contest against fifth-ranked JT who happens to be the second-hottest team in the league in the last three weeks, trailing only Alex. If he can beat JT, then he’s playoff bound. If not, he could still make the playoffs at 6-7, but would need JT, Erik and Samantha to each lose at least one game. The computer gives him an 86% chance.
What do JT and Erik need to do make the playoffs?
If Josh loses to Alex, it really opens the door for JT and Erik. To make the playoffs, both likely need to win out while having Josh lose both of his games. Because of that, it sets up a critical Week 12 game between JT and Erik where the loser is knocked out of playoff contention.
If JT wins that game, it could set up a potential winner-take-all Week 13 matchup between him and Josh with the winner advancing to the playoffs (assuming Josh loses his Week 12 game to Alex). But if Erik wins the Week 12 game with JT, he would need to beat Jess in Week 13 while rooting for JT to play spoiler in his game with Josh.
Unfortunately for Erik, this is the wrong week for such a high-leverage game. That’s because his whole team is essentially on bye, specifically Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks and Travis Kelce. To mitigate that imbalance, Erik traded away Cooks and Kelce to Brandon for Keenan Allen and Jordan Reed. But he will still be without Gurley.
The computer gives JT and Erik an 18% and 16% chance, respectively, to make the playoffs.
What does Samantha need to happen to make the playoffs?
Because she trails JT and Erik by a significant margin, Samantha needs to both win out and get help. For her part, she must beat Brandon and Trevor. That would get her to 7-6. Then she needs Josh to lose both his games while JT and Erik split theirs. That means she’d be rooting for Erik to beat JT. JT to beat Josh. And Jess to beat Erik in Week 13. In that case, Josh, JT and Erik would all be 6-7 and she would make the playoffs at 7-6. The computer gives her a 7% chance.
What does Trevor need to happen to make the playoffs?
A miracle, basically. He needs to win out in games against Nick and Samantha. That would get him to 6-7. Then like Samantha, he would need to root for Josh to lose both his games while JT and Erik split theirs. That would set up a tie where he, Josh, Erik and JT all have 6-7 records. And then, he would need to win those tiebreakers. Considering he has just 922 points while Josh leads that group with 1,213 points points, he would need to make up that 291-point gap over the course of two weeks. That means he’d need to outscore Josh by 145.5 ppg. So it’s highly improbable though technically possible.
What about the division races?
In the Leaders Division, Brandon is the heavy favorite with a 95% chance to secure the first-round bye in the playoffs. At 8-3, he needs to win one of his last two games or can lose both if Josh loses at least one game. We’ve already talked about Josh’s difficult Week 12 matchup, so given that, it’s likely Brandon clinches the division this week.
But if Josh were to somehow beat Alex then JT and Brandon lost to both Samantha and Alex, Josh would win the division, assuming he can maintain his 89-point lead in the tiebreaker. The computer gives that a 5% chance.
In the Legends Division, it’s still a three-team race between Nick, Jess and Alex. Despite the fact that Alex objectively has the best team in the division with a huge lead in points, he needs help to take the division. Even if he can win out against the league’s toughest remaining schedule (Josh in Week 12, Brandon in Week 13), he needs both Nick and Jess to lose at least one game. The problem? Nick and Jess have the easiest remaining schedules in the league besides Gray. Jess plays Greco this week. And Nick plays Geoff next week.
So if Nick wins out (beating Trevor and Geoff), he takes the division. If not, the lead would then fall to Jess. If she wins out (beating Greco and Erik), then she wins the division. Only if both lose would it open the door for Alex to get a first-round bye in the playoffs. The computer gives him a 12% chance with Jess having a 25% chance and Nick the favorite with a 63% chance to claim the division.
Looking Ahead to Week 12
In Week 12, the biggest game of the week will no doubt be the matchup between JT and Erik. The winner stays in playoff contention while the loser goes home. It will be a real uphill battle for Erik who will be without his best player, even with the trade for Allen and Reed, but it’s a must-win for both.
Also big will be Nick’s matchup with Trevor. Should he win that game, all that stands between Nick and the Legends Division is a Week 13 game against Geoff. Meanwhile, Brandon will clinch his division race with a win against Samantha or a loss for Josh against Alex.
Finally, Gray must keep it going against Geoff to maintain his current standing as the sixth and final wildcard team. And Jess faces a more difficult than expected matchup with Greco whose team will be back at full strength.
That’s it for Week 11. Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving yesterday. Personally, I know I am thankful to have such great friends and fantasy football competitors.
Good luck to all in Week 12!
